EUR/USD WEEKLY ANALYSIS: Where Liquidity Zone Price Target On ? OANDA:EURUSD
The Previous Uptrend (around September 16-17):
The candles show positive Delta values (+5.64K, -2.97K, +174). Although the candle on the 17th had a negative Delta, the overall trend leading up to it was driven by buying pressure. The high volume numbers on the buy side (left) during this period confirm that buyers were in control, pushing the price up.
The Current Corrective Move (around September 18-19):
This is where the Footprint data becomes most interesting and confirms the pullback.
September 18th candle: This candle shows a significant negative Delta (-288). This is a strong signal that sellers have entered the market aggressively. While the total volume is high (77.84K), the imbalance is clearly in favor of the sellers. The large red numbers on the right side of the candle, especially at higher prices, show that sellers were dominating and pushing the price down.
September 19th candle: The price continues to drop, and the Delta remains negative, reinforcing the selling pressure. The high sell volumes at the top of the candle confirm that this is a sustained downtrend within the larger corrective move.
Confirmation for the Trading Plan:
The Footprint data perfectly complements the SMC plan. It shows that the current downward move is not random; it's a deliberate shift in order flow driven by aggressive selling. This validates our expectation that the price will likely continue its correction.
To execute the long trade from the BUY ZONE, we would need to see a reversal in this Footprint data. Look for a future candle that shows a positive Delta, or a significant increase in buy volume at the lower price levels, especially within the BUY ZONE of 1.1670-1.1690. This would indicate that "Smart Money" is stepping back in to buy, confirming our entry.
In short, the Footprint data confirms the bearish pressure driving the current correction. It tells us not to rush into a buy and to wait for a clear shift in order flow to validate an entry.
Market Structure Analysis
Change of Character (ChoCH): The price shifted from a downtrend to an uptrend by breaking the previous high, which is marked as "ChoCH". This is the first signal indicating a change in the trend.
Break of Structure (BOS): After the ChoCH, the price continued to form higher highs and higher lows. A strong upward move broke the most recent high, creating a new "BOS". This confirms that the uptrend is continuing.
Current Trend: The current market structure is bullish. The price has created a new high (HH) and is now in a corrective phase, pulling back to find a strong support zone.
Analysis of Key Zones
Based on the market structure, there are key zones to watch:
BUY ZONE:
Location: The price range is from ~1.1670 to ~1.1690.
Significance: This zone is a crucial Order Block (OB). It was formed by the last candle before the price started its strong upward move, breaking the structure (BOS). According to SMC logic, this is where "Smart Money" placed large buy orders to push the price up, and the price is highly likely to retrace to "fill" the remaining orders. This is the most potential entry point for a long position.
SELL ZONE:
Location: The price range is from ~1.1820 to ~1.1840.
Significance: This zone is an Order Block and may also contain an Imbalance (liquidity gap). The price has already pulled back and had a minor reaction to this area. This is a temporary resistance zone. If the price continues to correct lower towards the "BUY ZONE", it will break through this area.
Liquidity and Stop Loss Zones:
Stop Loss (HH): The stop loss for a potential short trade would be placed above the highest peak (~1.1900).
Stop Loss (LL): The stop loss for a potential long trade would be placed below the lowest low (below the "BUY ZONE", ~1.1640). This area holds liquidity for buy orders placed here. If the price breaks this zone, the bullish structure could be invalidated, and the trading plan needs to be reconsidered.
Trading Plan
Based on the analysis, there are two main scenarios for trading EUR/USD:
Primary Scenario (Long Trade):
Strategy: Wait for the price to continue its corrective pullback.
Entry: Place a pending buy order in the BUY ZONE (~1.1670 - 1.1690).
Reasoning: This is the strongest Order Block zone, where the price is highly likely to reverse to continue the uptrend.
Take Profit:
TP1: The nearest high, above the SELL ZONE (~1.1840).
TP2: The current highest peak (~1.1880).
TP3: The liquidity zone above the high (HH) (~1.1920).
Stop Loss: Place it below the lowest low (LL), which is below the BUY ZONE (~1.1640).
Alternative Scenario (Short-Term Short Trade):
Strategy: Based on the current correction.
Entry: Consider a short-term sell trade when the price hits the SELL ZONE (~1.1820 - 1.1840).
Reasoning: This is a temporary resistance zone that could push the price down to fill the BUY ZONE below.
Take Profit: The BUY ZONE (~1.1670).
Stop Loss: Place it above the nearest peak within the corrective phase (~1.1860).
Important Note: The long trade scenario (primary plan) is more reliable because it aligns with the main market trend. The short trade scenario should be considered a short-term, higher-risk trade. Always follow proper risk management principles and only enter a trade with clear confirmation signals (e.g., a reversal candlestick pattern or a clear reaction to the key zones).
