Buy Cipla if it gives a Fake BreakoutCipla was in a good sideways range and the broke above with momentum. Price then retraced towards the breakout area in a good consolidation and now broke below the consolidation. There is a good opportunity of a bullish trade if price gets back into the above consolidation, thus forming a fake break out.
I would suggest to enter only if 1 Day candle closes inside the prior consolidation (above 1016).
Fakeout
Why BEAR-TRAP occurs? How to Avoid and Trade a BEAR-TRAP?What is a BEAR-TRAP?
--> BEAR-TRAP is a condition in the market where the Price gives a Breakdown below a Potential Support zone but quickly Reverses back above the Support without giving a follow up bearish candle.
Why a BEAR-TRAP occurs?
--> Big Players who are bullish on a specific stock would be wanting to buy a big quantity of shares at the best price , but there will be no enough sellers . Hence All Buy Orders of Big Players would not get filled. so what's the solution?
--> Big Players know that the Retailers have maximum of their StopLoss order's just below the Support.
--> Big Players will place Contra-Short Trades and will trigger the Stop-Loss Orders of the Retailers turning them into a Seller .Hence All Buy Orders of Big Players will get filled. .
--> New Breakdown Traders place Fresh Short-Sell Orders looking at the Breakdown and if its a F&O stock , Call-Sellers open new positions at ATM (At the money) Strikes. .
--> Now as All Buy Orders of Big Players got filled. . BIg players aggressively start moving the price up and trigger the Stop-Loss Orders of the New Breakdown Traders and Call-Sellers who entered looking at the Breakdown which ,again shoots up the price.
-->Hence All Bears are been Trapped.
How to avoid a BEAR-TRAP ?
--> Look at the Volumes on the Breakdown ! If the Volumes are Low , It is probably a Fake Breakdown! .
--> Wait for a follow up Bearish- Candle after the Breakdown Candle! i.e Take a entry only when the Low of the Breakdown-Candle breaks.
--> Check out if there is a significant Long-Unwinding if its a F&O stock.
How to trade a BEAR-TRAP ?
-->Check out for a Reversal Pattern soon after the Breakdown. Eg: Bullish Engulfing, Bullish Harami, Bullish Piercing .etc
--> This Reversal Candle Stick must close above the support.
-->Enter a Long Position above the high of this reversal candle .
Real Example!
--> NSE:POWERGRID was trading within a Rising Channel .
--> POWERGRID gave a Rising Channel Breakdown below 196 and gave a daily closing at 191. Perfect breakdown right?
-->Breakdown Traders entered here keeping their Stoploss above the POC or just above Psycological level 200. and Call Sellers would have Shorted the POWERGRID 200 CE STRIKE .
--> Check out the volumes on breakdown! Its very very low signifying its a Fake Breakdown.
--> POWERGRID on the following day made a Bullish Above Stomach Candlestick pattern and gave a closing above the support level 196.
-->Perfect Buy would be on 1HR Closing above the support level 196 on the next day.
-->Boom! Price made an Impulsive Movement after it triggered all the StopLoss Orders placed at Psycological level 200 by the Breakdown Traders and also due to the Short Covering at 200 CE STRIKE .
--> Wasn't it a perfect BEAR-TRAP Trade?
If you liked this Educational Idea, Kindly LIKE,COMMENT, SHARE, & FOLLLOW me on Trading-View for more educational posts like this.
BREAKOUT vs FAKEOUTTrading breakouts is a most profitable trading strategy that involves buying or selling an asset after a long period of consolidation.
Confirming breakouts before jumping into a trade is the key task to become a successful breakout trader.
Now lets see about the important key points to consider to confirm such valid breakouts
TYPES
There are different types of breakouts including
1)Trend line breakouts (diagonal form of S&R) ,
2)Horizontal price breakouts,
3)Pattern breakouts (double top, double bottom & other)
4)All time highs/lows breakouts,
5)Fib level breakouts etc.,
The support and resistance lines that are drawn at potential breakout points "should be seen as area/zones instead of fixed lines" .
BREAKOUT :
A breakout is when the price of the stock breaches a support or resistance levels that has previously formed followed by a strong candle close.
FAKEOUT :
A false break or fakeout, as the name implies, is any move above a resistance or below a support followed by a reversal that fails to close above or below the broken level.
WHEN THE FALSE BREAKOUT HAPPENS :
A false breakout happens when there are no enough buyers or sellers to continue supporting the stock towards the breakout direction.
In the examples above,the upper false breakouts happened because there were no enough buyers to continue pushing the price higher & tends to reverse similarly viceversa for the lower false breakout.
VARIOUS SCENARIOS OF FALSE BREAKOUT
POINTS TO REMEMBER
1)False breakouts can be avoided by waiting for strong candle closure above or below the levels to confirm the breakout strength.
2)Avoid the breakouts with non-stop parabolic movement (without pullback or retest).
3)Instead of using a single line as support or resistance, it is better to have an area/zone that covers all shadows in previous touches.
4)To take entry, always wait for the zone to breach by the candle closing confirmation combined with price action.
Hope it was helpful to you,
Happy Learning & Profit making :)
Thanks & Regards
Divyaapugal
Trading setup for beginnersOne thing that is a problem for novice traders is the lack of repeatable trading setups. Manually scanning through charts every day is counterproductive. One might take a trade just for the sake of it if they do not find anything worth trading.
This pattern can be scanned very easily on charting platforms. Lack of patience is very real during early days as a trader. Having a fixed systematic pattern like this is an antidote to lack of patience and bad trades.
Whenever the market penetrates the mentioned low and doesn't follow through, one can expect a short time spike in prices that can be capitalized. These patterns tend to resolve themselves within 3-5 days and occasionally make take some time. This pattern is called Turtle Soup/Turtle Soup Plus One. If the market closes above the mentioned low on the same day, it is called turtle soup and if it closes higher the next day, it is called turtle soup plus one. I learned this strategy from a legendary veteran trader, Linda Bradford Raschke, in her book Street Smarts. The trading pattern is explained thoroughly on the chart but if you have any questions, you can drop them in the comment section.
P.S. I highlighted the most recent trade because that was the one that I took and the previous examples on the chart may look like a benefit of hindsight, but that is simply to see how the markets reacted and whether this trade would have worked out or not. Past market behavior is very important.
*Welcome corrections on the chart if any*
Late night Technical analysis talk We analyze potential stocks on daily basis for education purposes only here on LNA
Late night Technical analysis talk - Nifty energy stocksThese are potential trades given by you guys only in the comment section :) also, some are my findings
Update on Bajaj finance and Reliance is given inside the video
NO intraday analysis for today only swing based
Nifty energy seems bullish so we took 2 stocks into consideration for that :)
Late night Technical analysis talk - Swing and Intraday stocks These are potential trades given by you guys only in the comment section :) also, some are my findings, UPL bearish trade can be taken as a good intraday
opportunity and the same goes for bajaj finance 15min BO anticipation and inverted HnS trade.
Other stocks are good to go for our swing trades
GAEL on verge with ascending triangle patternHey folks!
Technical analysis on GAEL:
Gael has been consolidating for 3 months. It is near the verge to breakout.
I would love if it retest the lower trendline and tK [hen gave a breakout.
Acummulating stock near the lower trendline will give most benefit out of the trade
And risk to reward ratio will be appropriate.
Fundamental analysis:
Gael is agro processing company
Tickertape analyst have 100% recommend this stock
PE ratio is 13.17 which I consider good
Profit has been increased from 0.15 to 0.34(value in cr)
Promoter has almost 60% holdings
FIIS holding has been kept increasing
Thanks for viewing my idea!
An like would be appreciated and follow me for more ideas ;)
Late night Technical analysis talk We discuss potential stocks provided by you guys only in my DMs and comment sections so give your stocks in comments and DM me for tommorows video :)
👑 Terms used if you don't know :
✣ Contraction pattern: A pattern starting with a broadening high candlestick and low candlestick and converging to a fixed point, these highs and lows created in between them are bulls vs bears fight going on inside the pattern and if it comes to the lower part of it, surely bulls will take it to the topmost point and vice-versa until one of them wins
✣ Structure and trend: Two types of trends that exist in the market today are uptrends and downtrends. Each type of trend tells a different story and has its own impact on a trader's success in the market. While uptrends show a series of higher highs and higher lows, downtrends show lower highs and lower lows
✣Breakout: Breakouts are commonly associated with ranges or other chart patterns, including triangles( HERE WE WILL SEE THIS ONE ), flags, wedges , and head-and-shoulders. These patterns are formed when the price moves in a specific way which results in well-defined support and/or resistance levels. Traders then watch these levels for breakouts
✣ RSI DIVERGENCE: A bullish divergence occurs when the RSI creates an oversold reading followed by a higher low that matches correspondingly lower lows in the price. This indicates rising bullish momentum, and a break above oversold territory could be used to trigger a new long position.
✣ Supply/ Demand: In the supply zone , the prices are higher than the bid price, and in the demand zone , they are lower. The bid price is what a trader is willing to pay for a stock
👑 Important levels - explained well
👑 Comment your thoughts and queries regarding anything on this analysis of mine, feel free buddy :)
⌛ Motivational and psychological area ⌛
✣Trade only if you are in the right mindset, if you have been emotionally weak for some time, take your time and don't trade, trade with a happy and + mindset only.
✣If you want to make money, firstly be prepared to lose it, only that much which you can afford and that much by which you can make a mistake again, learn from them and grow
✣Don't lose hope and keep grinding
✣I have seen my friends on youtube streaming games with watching 10, constantly they streamed for a year or two and now they are buzzing with 1k to 2k watching daily.
✣Focus on the process, you are here to make money not stupid decisions and lose it all
✣No one will help you climb the mountain, few will tell the path, so follow good people, make good mentors and make good decisions and choices in the stock market.
✣Believe in yourself :)
🎓🎓 Some info about me :)
➼My name is Apoorv and I am a 2nd year Engineering student, I want to pursue trading as my career, and thus whatsoever setups or trades I potentially see on my charting platform, I post it here and share them with you all.
➼I hope you will love my simple analysis style.
➼Feel free to suggest your view on this as learning is earning here :)
➼I take my trades on my Zerodha account :)
➼I don't take all the trades I post
➼These charts are my and only my work, my thought process, just from an educational point of view and no calls.
SAIL Triangle breakout - Here is How one should set a good trade1) Some useful knowledge :
Triangles can be best described as horizontal trading patterns. At the start of its formation, the triangle is at its widest point. As the market continues to trade in a sideways pattern, the range of trading narrows, and the point of the triangle is formed. In its simplest form, the triangle shows losing interest in an issue, both from the buy-side as well as the sell-side: the supply line diminishes to meet the demand.
Think of the lower line of the triangle, or lower trendline, as the demand line, which represents support on the chart. At this point, the buyers of the issue outpace the sellers, and the stock's price begins to rise. The supply line is the top line of the triangle and represents the overbought side of the market when investors are going out taking profits with them.
2) About the entry : So far, we have seen two triangle patterns: one from an uptrend and bullish market move and one from a downtrend with a decidedly bearish look. Symmetrical triangles, on the other hand, are thought of as continuation patterns developed in markets that are, for the most part, aimless in direction. The market seems listless in its direction. The supply and demand, therefore, seem to be one and the same.
During this period of indecision, the highs and the lows seem to come together at the point of the triangle with virtually no significant volume. Investors just don't know what position to take.
However, when the investors do figure out which way to take the issue, it heads north or south with big volume in comparison to that of the indecisive days and/or weeks leading up to the breakout. The breakout generally occurs in the direction of the existing trend. But, if you are looking for an entry point following a symmetrical triangle, jump into the fray at the breakout point.
3) LEVELS: STRONG close above 130 on 30min and sustaining there for another 30 min that will make a close of 1hr candle will give good momentum for the stock. Stop-loss can be set at 125.45 as it is a small swing low also will make the stock come back to the pattern, Targets of 140 should be eyed on
This is how you capture 14% in SCI👑 Terms used if you don't know :
✣ Contraction pattern: A pattern starting with a broadening high candlestick and low candlestick and converging to a fixed point, these highs and lows created in between them are bulls vs bears fight going on inside the pattern and if it comes to the lower part of it, surely bulls will take it to the topmost point and vice-versa until one of them wins
✣ Structure and trend: Two types of trends that exist in the market today are uptrends and downtrends. Each type of trend tells a different story and has its own impact on a trader's success in the market. While uptrends show a series of higher highs and higher lows, downtrends show lower highs and lower lows
✣Breakout: Breakouts are commonly associated with ranges or other chart patterns, including triangles( HERE WE WILL SEE THIS ONE ), flags, wedges , and head-and-shoulders. These patterns are formed when the price moves in a specific way which results in well-defined support and/or resistance levels. Traders then watch these levels for breakouts
✣ RSI DIVERGENCE: A bullish divergence occurs when the RSI creates an oversold reading followed by a higher low that matches correspondingly lower lows in the price. This indicates rising bullish momentum, and a break above oversold territory could be used to trigger a new long position.
✣ Supply/ Demand: In the supply zone , the prices are higher than the bid price, and in the demand zone , they are lower. The bid price is what a trader is willing to pay for a stock
👑 Important levels - explained well
👑 Comment your thoughts and queries regarding anything on this analysis of mine, feel free buddy :)
⌛ Motivational and psychological area ⌛
✣Trade only if you are in the right mindset, if you have been emotionally weak for some time, take your time and don't trade, trade with a happy and + mindset only.
✣If you want to make money, firstly be prepared to lose it, only that much which you can afford and that much by which you can make a mistake again, learn from them and grow
✣Don't lose hope and keep grinding
✣I have seen my friends on youtube streaming games with watching 10, constantly they streamed for a year or two and now they are buzzing with 1k to 2k watching daily.
✣Focus on the process, you are here to make money not stupid decisions and lose it all
✣No one will help you climb the mountain, few will tell the path, so follow good people, make good mentors and make good decisions and choices in the stock market.
✣Believe in yourself :)
🎓🎓 Some info about me :)
➼My name is Apoorv and I am a 2nd year Engineering student, I want to pursue trading as my career, and thus whatsoever setups or trades I potentially see on my charting platform, I post it here and share them with you all.
➼I hope you will love my simple analysis style.
➼Feel free to suggest your view on this as learning is earning here :)
➼I take my trades on my Zerodha account :)
➼I don't take all the trades I post
➼These charts are my and only my work, my thought process, just from an educational point of view and no calls.
10 Star analysis on NBCC - 10% possible move 👑 Terms used if you don't know :
✣ Contraction pattern: A pattern starting with a broadening high candlestick and low candlestick and converging to a fixed point, these highs and lows created in between them are bulls vs bears fight going on inside the pattern and if it comes to the lower part of it, surely bulls will take it to the topmost point and vice-versa until one of them wins
✣ Structure and trend: Two types of trends that exist in the market today are uptrends and downtrends. Each type of trend tells a different story and has its own impact on a trader's success in the market. While uptrends show a series of higher highs and higher lows, downtrends show lower highs and lower lows
✣Breakout: Breakouts are commonly associated with ranges or other chart patterns, including triangles( HERE WE WILL SEE THIS ONE ), flags, wedges, and head-and-shoulders. These patterns are formed when the price moves in a specific way which results in well-defined support and/or resistance levels. Traders then watch these levels for breakouts
✣ RSI DIVERGENCE: A bullish divergence occurs when the RSI creates an oversold reading followed by a higher low that matches correspondingly lower lows in the price. This indicates rising bullish momentum, and a break above oversold territory could be used to trigger a new long position.
✣ Supply/ Demand: In the supply zone, the prices are higher than the bid price, and in the demand zone, they are lower. The bid price is what a trader is willing to pay for a stock
👑 Important levels - explained well
👑 Comment your thoughts and queries regarding anything on this analysis of mine, feel free buddy :)
⌛ Motivational and psychological area ⌛
✣Trade only if you are in the right mindset, if you have been emotionally weak for some time, take your time and don't trade, trade with a happy and + mindset only.
✣If you want to make money, firstly be prepared to lose it, only that much which you can afford and that much by which you can make a mistake again, learn from them and grow
✣Don't lose hope and keep grinding
✣I have seen my friends on youtube streaming games with watching 10, constantly they streamed for a year or two and now they are buzzing with 1k to 2k watching daily.
✣Focus on the process, you are here to make money not stupid decisions and lose it all
✣No one will help you climb the mountain, few will tell the path, so follow good people, make good mentors and make good decisions and choices in the stock market.
✣Believe in yourself :)
🎓🎓 Some info about me :)
➼My name is Apoorv and I am a 2nd year Engineering student, I want to pursue trading as my career, and thus whatsoever setups or trades I potentially see on my charting platform, I post it here and share them with you all.
➼I hope you will love my simple analysis style.
➼Feel free to suggest your view on this as learning is earning here :)
➼I take my trades on my Zerodha account :)
➼I don't take all the trades I post
➼These charts are my and only my work, my thought process, just from an educational point of view and no calls.
☃☃☃☃ Thank You Have a Nice Trading Day ☃☃☃☃
Late night Technical analysis talk - Give me 12 mins if possible👑 Terms used if you don't know :
✣ Contraction pattern: A pattern starting with a broadening high candlestick and low candlestick and converging to a fixed point, these highs and lows created in between them are bulls vs bears fight going on inside the pattern and if it comes to the lower part of it, surely bulls will take it to the topmost point and vice-versa until one of them wins
✣ Structure and trend: Two types of trends that exist in the market today are uptrends and downtrends. Each type of trend tells a different story and has its own impact on a trader's success in the market. While uptrends show a series of higher highs and higher lows, downtrends show lower highs and lower lows
✣Breakout: Breakouts are commonly associated with ranges or other chart patterns, including triangles( HERE WE WILL SEE THIS ONE ), flags, wedges , and head-and-shoulders. These patterns are formed when the price moves in a specific way which results in well-defined support and/or resistance levels. Traders then watch these levels for breakouts
✣ RSI DIVERGENCE: A bullish divergence occurs when the RSI creates an oversold reading followed by a higher low that matches correspondingly lower lows in the price. This indicates rising bullish momentum, and a break above oversold territory could be used to trigger a new long position.
👑 Important levels ( also most of it depends on your entry and mindset during trading hours )
✣ A 1hr close on 685-687 levels can trigger a breakout as explained in the terms section above
✣ Risk of 3% can be taken at the point = 660 points to be specific from entry
✣ Targets can be 1- 722 and 2- 750 for your 5% and 10% up move profit booking of the initiated swing trade
👑 Comment your thoughts and queries regarding anything on this analysis of mine, feel free buddy :)
⌛ Motivational and psychological area ⌛
✣Trade only if you are in the right mindset, if you have been emotionally weak for some time, take your time and don't trade, trade with a happy and + mindset only.
✣If you want to make money, firstly be prepared to lose it, only that much which you can afford and that much by which you can make a mistake again, learn from them and grow
✣Don't lose hope and keep grinding
✣I have seen my friends on youtube streaming games with watching 10, constantly they streamed for a year or two and now they are buzzing with 1k to 2k watching daily.
✣Focus on the process, you are here to make money not stupid decisions and lose it all
✣No one will help you climb the mountain, few will tell the path, so follow good people, make good mentors and make good decisions and choices in the stock market.
✣Believe in yourself :)
🎓🎓 Some info about me :)
➼My name is Apoorv and I am a 2nd year Engineering student, I want to pursue trading as my career, and thus whatsoever setups or trades I potentially see on my charting platform, I post it here and share them with you all.
➼I hope you will love my simple analysis style.
➼Feel free to suggest your view on this as learning is earning here :)
➼I take my trades on my Zerodha account :)
➼I don't take all the trades I post
➼These charts are my and only my work, my thought process, just from an educational point of view and no calls.
☃☃☃☃ Thank You Have a Nice Trading Day ☃☃☃☃
How do the Breakout traders get trapped? Part- IIPsychology and Behind the scenes stuff:
1. At the BO, there was a massive bullish candle with a very high volume. This took out the previous resistance level.
2. The retailers saw this opportunity because the price closed above the previous resistance. Hence, they entered Longs.
3. The BO was followed by a Doji and then a Bearish candle. This indicated no Bullish follow-up.
4. The next candle was the last try to trap more longs before breaking down. This is indicated by the good volume on this candle.
5. Finally the price broke down with back-to-back bearish candles and reached the previous swing low.
Warning candles:
1. Doji + Big Bearish candle indicating that there is no follow-up on the BO
2. Relatively good volume on doji indicates significant selling pressure. Never a good sign for a breakout.
3. A bullish breakout must always be accompanied by a good follow up, else it cannot sustain. Bullish BO needs good bullish candles, NOT dojis.
P.S: I am not saying the fakeouts can be avoided. But there are a few cases where fakeouts can be avoided. Also, this is NOT investment advice. This chart is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
10 Star analysis on SUNPHARMA - 10% possible move 👑 Terms used if you don't know :
✣ Contraction pattern: A pattern starting with a broadening high candlestick and low candlestick and converging to a fixed point, these highs and lows created in between them are bulls vs bears fight going on inside the pattern and if it comes to the lower part of it, surely bulls will take it to the topmost point and vice-versa until one of them wins
✣ Structure and trend: Two types of trends that exist in the market today are uptrends and downtrends. Each type of trend tells a different story and has its own impact on a trader's success in the market. While uptrends show a series of higher highs and higher lows, downtrends show lower highs and lower lows
✣Breakout: Breakouts are commonly associated with ranges or other chart patterns, including triangles( HERE WE WILL SEE THIS ONE ), flags, wedges, and head-and-shoulders. These patterns are formed when the price moves in a specific way which results in well-defined support and/or resistance levels. Traders then watch these levels for breakouts
✣ RSI DIVERGENCE: A bullish divergence occurs when the RSI creates an oversold reading followed by a higher low that matches correspondingly lower lows in the price. This indicates rising bullish momentum, and a break above oversold territory could be used to trigger a new long position.
👑 Important levels ( also most of it depends on your entry and mindset during trading hours )
✣ A 1hr close on 685-687 levels can trigger a breakout as explained in the terms section above
✣ Risk of 3% can be taken at the point = 660 points to be specific from entry
✣ Targets can be 1- 722 and 2- 750 for your 5% and 10% up move profit booking of the initiated swing trade
👑 Comment your thoughts and queries regarding anything on this analysis of mine, feel free buddy :)
⌛ Motivational and psychological area ⌛
✣Trade only if you are in the right mindset, if you have been emotionally weak for some time, take your time and don't trade, trade with a happy and + mindset only.
✣If you want to make money, firstly be prepared to lose it, only that much which you can afford and that much by which you can make a mistake again, learn from them and grow
✣Don't lose hope and keep grinding
✣I have seen my friends on youtube streaming games with watching 10, constantly they streamed for a year or two and now they are buzzing with 1k to 2k watching daily.
✣Focus on the process, you are here to make money not stupid decisions and lose it all
✣No one will help you climb the mountain, few will tell the path, so follow good people, make good mentors and make good decisions and choices in the stock market.
✣Believe in yourself :)
🎓🎓 Some info about me :)
➼My name is Apoorv and I am a 2nd year Engineering student, I want to pursue trading as my career, and thus whatsoever setups or trades I potentially see on my charting platform, I post it here and share them with you all.
➼I hope you will love my simple analysis style.
➼Feel free to suggest your view on this as learning is earning here :)
➼I take my trades on my Zerodha account :)
➼I don't take all the trades I post
➼These charts are my and only my work, my thought process, just from an educational point of view and no calls.
☃☃☃☃ Thank You Have a Nice Trading Day ☃☃☃☃
How Breakout traders get trapped? Underlying logic:
1. The market already gave 11% in the impulsive move and created a high. Obviously, the momentum was fading out.
2. If you recall my lecture on market structure, you already know that after the creation of a high, we must come down to create a new higher low. The market cannot keep making new highs without creating a higher low.
3. There was a Bearish divergence. The price was moving up and up but the RSI was creating an equal high indicating that there isn't enough buying pressure. (I have already covered this in my older posts)
Psychology and Behind the scenes stuff:
1. At the point of BO, there was only a round bottom, so nobody would have thought of it as the cup & handle pattern.
2. After the BO failed and the price dropped and formed the handle, the retailers thought of it as a cup and handle pattern. Only after the formation of the pattern, you would think of it as a pattern.
3. But the BO traders already got trapped at the top. You aren't aware of this if you don't have knowledge
4. So, in the end, nobody really paid attention to the manipulations done by the institutions. This is how retailers are trapped.
Warning candles: Doji + Hammers + Bearish candles indicating that there is a problem with the follow-up. Relatively good volume on hammer & doji, which is never a good sign for a breakout. It indicates significant selling pressure. A bullish breakout must always be accompanied by a good follow up, else it cannot sustain. Bullish BO needs good bullish candles, NOT dojis.
P.S: I am not saying the fakeouts can be avoided. But there are a few cases where fakeouts can be avoided. Also, this is NOT investment advice. This chart is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
How to avoid Fake Breakout? A lot of retailers may have gotten caught in this fake breakout in TCS. I provided that rough path (which I anticipated it would follow) in my original idea because I believed the conditions were not right for a breakout at the moment. The majority of the time, we cannot avoid getting trapped in fake breakouts. But in the recent case of TCS, the fakeout could have been avoided.
Underlying logic:
1. The market already gave 8% in the impulsive move and created a high. Don't you think it needed a little rest before the next leg up?
2. If you recall my lecture on market structure, you already know that after the creation of a high, we must come down to create a new higher low. The market cannot keep making new highs without creating a higher low.
3. There was a Bearish divergence. The price was moving up and up but the RSI was creating a lower high indicating that there isn't enough buying pressure. (I have already covered this in my older posts)
Warning candles: As soon as there was a breakout, there was a series of Hammers + Doji indicating that there is a problem with the follow-up. There was a significant volume on hammer & doji, which is never a good sign for a breakout. It indicates significant selling pressure. A bullish breakout must always be accompanied by a good follow up, else it cannot sustain. Bullish BO needs good bullish candles, NOT dojis.
P.S: I am not saying the fakeouts can be avoided. But there are a few cases where fakeouts can be avoided. Also, this is NOT investment advice. This chart is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
NOT A MORNING STAR SIGNALpeople often mistakenly see this signal as the morning star signal and book losses. this signal does not fulfill a very necessary condition of the morning star signal, ie., the third day candlestick does not penetrate at least half of the first day black candle which is of utmost importance!