Get started

Falsebreakout

NZDJPY - FALSE BREAKOUT IN PLAYSymbol - NZDJPY CMP - 87.21 NZDJPY is encountering resistance within the context of a broader downtrend. The pair appears unprepared to sustain upward momentum and is currently exhibiting signs of a potential local reversal. Within the framework of the prevailing global downtrend, the currency pair is undergoing a corrective countertrend movement and is currently testing the resistance level at 87.40, The liquidity concentration situated above this threshold has not yet permitted a continuation of the upward move. In the absence of sufficient bullish momentum, the price has reverted back into the established range, forming a false breakout above resistance. Given that the pair remains within the range and has returned below the resistance boundary, sustained bearish pressure at the 87.40 level (the upper limit of the trading range) could initiate a renewed decline, thus resuming the overarching downtrend. Key Resistance Level: 87.40 Key Support Levels: 86.50, 85.26 A confirmed consolidation of the price below the 87.40 resistance level would reinforce the view that bullish continuation is not imminent. Additionally, the weakening US Dollar Index is contributing to strength in the Japanese Yen, which may exert further downward pressure on the NZDJPY pair.
Short
by akshit_official
Retail vs Smart Money: Learn to Spot the Real Market Movers!Hello Traders! Today, we’re diving into one of the most important yet least talked about market dynamics — the constant battle between Retail Traders vs. Smart Money . Every chart hides a silent war where emotions meet strategy, and it’s time you learn how to spot it! What is Smart Money vs Retail Behavior? Retail traders often follow price, news, and momentum. Smart money (institutions, big players) create the setups that retail ends up chasing.They accumulate silently during fear, distribute during euphoria — and use chart patterns, volume, and sentiment to their advantage. Key Signs You’re Competing Against Smart Money False Breakouts Near Highs: Smart money sells into breakout buying volume as retail jumps in too late. Volume Divergence: Price rises but volume fades — big players aren’t buying anymore. Traps Around Support/Resistance: Retail stops get hunted just before big reversals. Sudden Wicks & Spikes: Quick candle spikes in low liquidity zones often indicate manipulation. VWAP & Order Flow Conflicts: Price trades above VWAP but fails to sustain — institutions are likely offloading. How to Avoid Being the Liquidity for Smart Money Don’t Chase Moves: Always wait for confirmation. Avoid impulsive entries. Track Volume + Context: High volume at breakout = strength. Low volume = trap. Observe VWAP and Institutional Zones: Use tools like VWAP, anchored VWAP, and order blocks to detect smart accumulation/distribution. Think Like a Trap Setter: Ask — where are people trapped? That’s where smart money will act. Rahul’s Tip If you feel excited to buy, ask yourself — who’s selling to you? If you feel panic to sell, who’s buying from you?That’s how smart money survives — by playing the opposite side of your emotion. Conclusion Markets are less about technicals and more about psychology. The faster you learn how smart money uses charts to influence emotions, the faster you’ll level up as a trader. Have you ever fallen into a smart money trap? Share your experience in the comments — let’s all learn together!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal
11
How to Identify a True Breakout vs. a False Breakout? Hello Traders! Identifying breakouts correctly is one of the most crucial skills in trading. A true breakout can lead to strong trending moves, while a false breakout can trap traders and trigger stop-losses. Let’s explore how to differentiate between the two and avoid unnecessary losses! 1. True Breakout: Signs to Look For High Volume Confirmation – A real breakout is accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume, confirming strong buying or selling pressure. Clear Support & Resistance Levels – The price must break above a key resistance (bullish) or drop below a strong support (bearish) with conviction. Retest of the Breakout Level – Many true breakouts retest the breakout level before continuing the trend. This pullback provides a great entry opportunity. Strong Candlestick Formation – A bullish breakout should have a solid green candle closing above resistance, while a bearish breakout should have a strong red candle closing below support. Trend Confirmation – If the breakout aligns with the overall market trend, it has a higher probability of succeeding. 2. False Breakout: Warning Signs to Avoid Low Volume Breakout – If the price moves beyond resistance/support without a surge in volume, it’s likely a false breakout. Quick Reversal After Breakout – If the price immediately returns inside the range, it indicates weak momentum and a possible trap. Fakeout Candlestick Patterns – Watch for wicks and long shadows at breakout levels, as they suggest a rejection instead of a real move. No Follow-Through – A breakout should be followed by sustained price movement in the breakout direction. If the price stalls, it could be a fake move. Breakout Against the Trend – A breakout that goes against the prevailing market trend is more likely to fail. 3. Pro Tips to Trade Breakouts Successfully Wait for the Retest – Many traders enter after confirmation from a successful retest of the breakout level. Use Volume Indicators – Tools like OBV (On-Balance Volume) and Volume Profile help confirm if the breakout is valid. Set Stop-Loss Wisely – Place stop-losses below the breakout level for long trades and above the level for short trades to avoid whipsaws. Look for Confluence – If the breakout aligns with moving averages, RSI, or Fibonacci levels, it has a higher probability of success. Conclusion A true breakout offers great trading opportunities, but recognizing false breakouts is equally important to avoid traps. Always wait for confirmation, use volume analysis, and stick to your risk management plan. Have you ever fallen for a false breakout? Share your experiences in the comments below! 🔥👇
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal
4
Stock Market Analysis Report: Lupin Limited (NSE: LUPIN) Introduction Greetings, traders! If you're looking for a pharmaceutical stock that might just cure your portfolio blues, look no further than Lupin Limited. This stock is brewing up an interesting pattern that’s worth a closer look. Let’s dive into the technical details and see what’s in store! Price Action Overview Chart Analysis Current Price: ₹1,759.30 Daily High: ₹1,767.00 Daily Low: ₹1,598.25 Volume: 10.039M Key Technical Indicators Bearish Gartley Pattern: The chart reveals a bearish Gartley pattern, suggesting a potential reversal. Rectangle Pattern with Potential False Breakout: The price is within a rectangle pattern, hinting at a potential false breakout. Decreasing Volume: The volume is on a decline, which could signal weakening momentum. Detailed Analysis Bearish Gartley Pattern Formation: The Bearish Gartley pattern, marked by points X, A, B, C, and D, indicates a potential reversal from the current uptrend. Implications: This pattern suggests that the stock might face resistance at the current levels and could potentially see a pullback. Rectangle Pattern with Potential False Breakout Rectangle Pattern: The stock price is trading within a rectangle pattern, showing consolidation between support and resistance levels. False Breakout: The current breakout might be a false one, as indicated by the rectangle pattern and the resistance at point D. Decreasing Volume Volume Trend: The decreasing volume trend suggests that the current upward momentum might be losing steam. Significance: Lower volume during a breakout can indicate a lack of strong buying interest, increasing the chances of a reversal. Price Targets and Support Levels Immediate Resistance: ₹1,800.00 - This is the next resistance level to watch closely. Support Levels: Primary Support: ₹1,600.00 - A key level to maintain for bullish sentiment. Secondary Support: ₹1,400.00 - A more conservative support level aligning with previous consolidation areas. 💊📉 Conclusion Lupin Limited is showing a bearish Gartley pattern with a potential false breakout within a rectangle pattern. The decreasing volume adds caution to the current bullish momentum. Keep an eye on the resistance level at ₹1,800.00 and monitor the volume to gauge the strength of the current trend. Happy trading, and may your portfolio stay healthy and robust! 🌿💰 Disclaimer This analysis is based on historical data and chart patterns. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
NSE:LUPIN
by TRADING-NASA
Bank Nifty Analysis 17th Jan'24As mentioned previously avoid and beware of false break outs and traps same happend today in morning unable to break 48280 to 42300 false breakout and then back to days low at 48000 Stills looks buyer have controlled from falling below 48000. looks tomorrow may have gap opening in Bank nifty. See Bank nifty also making range between support & resistance keep eye on opening for tomorrow also expiry may turned out to be trend day. Support 48000 Resistance 48200 to 42300
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Price_actiontaker14
Nasdaq 100- Bull Trap, SELL!Attached: NDQ Daily Live Market Chart as of 20th March 2023 - Price has triggered a Bearish Anti Butterfly Harmonic Pattern - Price has also broken Previous Day Low with Previous Day being a Doji Candle - And this Sell Off today comes after a Run up which is potentially a False Breakout from a Bull Flag - The saying goes like, "From False Moves come Fast Moves in the Opposite Direction" - The Divergence between S&P 500 and Nasdaq looks like Nasdaq will resolve on the Downside to align with the S&P 500 Plan of Action: Price Holding below 12680 has a Downside📉 Target🎯 open to: T1= 11830 to 11700 T2= 11250 to 11100
TVC:NDQShort
by T_Harth
IS MARUTI LOOKING FOR A BREAKOUT ?Maruti Suzuki , under retracement trying to find its way to the original uptrend. Currently moving under the channel from 8635.20 and 8966.25 . Here recently we saw a false break out the support, which in turn implies that buyers will not let it come down now. The stock is also supported by two EMAs and thus we may probably see a break out at resistance this time. Small stop loss , make a good risk reward ratio and hence, I firmly believe that it a nice trade to enter. Technical Indicators : CMP : 8,696.25, RSI : 48.78 ADX(14) : 34.70 ( Directional Strength ) ATR (14) : 126.6 ( Less Volatile ) MACD ( 12,26) : 35.25
NSE:MARUTILong
by chakraveer1104
Orient Electric -Getting ReadyOrient Electric -Triangle pattern formation Orient Electric after trading in a consolidation triangle pattern on Friday gave huge momentum on the upside with good volume. How to identify false breakout? On the initial breakout from a range or other chart pattern, a rise in volume indicates strength in the move. Little change in volume or declining volume on a breakout indicates a lack of interest and a higher probability for a false breakout. If the price gives a breakout on the upside and respects the upper trendline confirmed by good volume, traders can go long. Let's see what happens. Note= Get in the habit of focusing on your trading system and following the process for entries, exits, and position size, rather than the money you are making or losing at any particular moment
NSE:ORIENTELEC
by Indrajit08
3
BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS 18/2/2021Last week in the market, we were looking a possible breakout or breakdown situation on both Nifty and Bank Nifty. It turns out, it was a breakout towards 15,400 and 37,700. Now it looks there is a possibility of a false breakout as well. If the market fails at one at one end of the range, it generally tests the other extreme side. Here, we also have a head and shoulders pattern. The call writing in today's expiry for BNF 37,000CE was 106K. DIIs have also been net sellers for a while now. For the coming week, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts at this level. If the breakdown occurs below 36,400, there could be some selling pressure to re-test 36,000. If the market does move higher again, there is strong resistance at 37,000. I do not have a bias on the possibilities, because the market is too overstretched with heavy liquidity.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by ArcherDAVIS