XAUUSD – Weekly outlookXAUUSD – Weekly outlook: structure points towards 4,580 as long as bulls hold the line
Brian – Favouring buy-the-dip setups while price holds above 3,996
1. Market overview – triangle break and trend confirmation
On the daily chart, gold has finally broken out of the long consolidation triangle, with Friday’s candle closing cleanly above the descending trendline that has capped price for weeks.
For me, this breakout is the first proper confirmation that the primary bullish trend is resuming.
The next major resistance on the chart sits around 4,246 – a key level I’m watching as a trend-confirmation line.
If price can break and hold above 4,246, the path towards the higher zone around 4,580 opens up, in line with the Fibonacci extension drawn on the chart.
In short: the structure into next week is bullish, with pullbacks seen as opportunities to position for a potential move towards new highs.
2. Technical structure – from breakout to extension targets
The breakout from the triangle comes after a sequence of higher lows bouncing off the rising trendline, indicating accumulation rather than distribution.
Below price, we have demand zones clustered around the 4,110 trendline area and deeper supports near 4,040 and 3,920.
Above price, the roadmap is fairly clear:
First, a test of 4,246 (local resistance & former supply).
Then the ATH / prior high region around 4,360–4,380.
Finally, the Fibonacci 1.618 extension projects into the 4,560–4,580 zone, which is my medium-term upside objective if bulls can maintain control.
As long as daily structure keeps printing higher highs and higher lows and price stays above the key invalidation at 3,996, I will continue to treat gold as buy-on-dip rather than looking for major tops.
3. Key zones & trading ideas for next week
I’m not treating this as a signal service, but here’s how I’m mapping the chart for my own trading:
Primary idea – Buy the dip into trendline / support
Watch zone: around the rising trendline near 4,110.
If price pulls back into this area early in the week and shows a clear rejection on H4/D1 (wick rejections, bullish engulfing etc.), I’ll be interested in building long positions.
Upside path:
First objective: 4,246 – trend-confirmation resistance.
If broken and retested from above, the next leg could extend towards 4,360–4,380.
Extension target: 4,560–4,580 in line with the 1.618 Fibonacci projection.
Secondary idea – Using Fibonacci zones on break above 4,246
If gold breaks and holds above 4,246, the Fibonacci zones between roughly 4,360 and 4,580 become interesting for scaling in / managing positions:
Partial profits or tight trailing stops can be considered as we approach 4,360–4,380.
Any healthy corrective pullback from that region that respects the rising structure could still offer add-on entries with the 4,580 zone as a medium-term target.
Invalidation:
A daily close below 3,996 would seriously damage this bullish structure and force me to reassess. Below that, I would step aside and wait for a new pattern rather than trying to force the long idea.
4. Fundamental backdrop – why gold still has a bid
From a macro point of view, gold is navigating a mix of:
Tariff and trade tensions, which keep hedging demand alive as investors look for protection against policy shocks.
Ongoing geopolitical risks and conflict, supporting gold’s role as a classic safe-haven asset.
A late-cycle interest-rate environment, where markets are increasingly focused on when and how aggressively central banks will adjust policy after a period of elevated rates and liquidity distortions.
This combination tends to limit the downside for gold: even when we see corrections, dip-buyers are never too far away, especially when the technical structure is aligned with the macro story.
5. Strategy & risk management
Into next week, my bias is clear: structure is bullish above 3,996, so I prefer buying pullbacks rather than trying to short into strength.
The trendline around 4,110 is my first area of interest for fresh longs; anything closer to 4,040–4,000 (if we see a deeper flush) would be considered an even better price, provided the daily structure doesn’t break.
As always, position sizing and stop placement are key – one good weekly move is far more valuable than several emotional entries trying to catch every candle.
What do you reckon – does this breakout have enough fuel to take us towards 4,580, or do you see a deeper correction setting up first? Feel free to share your view in the comments.
