Gold Consolidates Near 2750-60: 2800 Ahead AS EXPECTED....
Gold is showing buying bias and current price is trading around 2,762, showing bullish momentum in an uptrend,Formation of higher highs and higher lows is still intact.
Notable liquidity pool visible around 2,780 area (Immidiate resistance) which acted as resistance and seems like bulls are ready to take this liquidity soon as Several order blocks formed between 2,740-2,750 acting as support also FVG visible around 2,735-2,740 region,Higher volume spikes during upward movements indicating buyer strength and volume divergence minimal, supporting the current trend so Overall trend remains bullish as shared in previos posts and weekly analysis video also and I am still holding my buy positions and now I moved my Stop to risk free level for gold and silver.
Key levels to watch:
Support: 2,748 (Pivot level), 2,711 (S1)
Resistance: 2,780, 2,808 (R1)
Forex
Gold Surges Ahead of FOMC – Big Moves Coming!📈 Gold Unexpectedly Surges Ahead of FOMC Data – Prepare for Major Volatility 🚀
🔍 Market Overview
After a sharp 60-pip drop at the market open, gold made an unexpected recovery yesterday. Currently, on the H1 chart, price is approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level, but the reaction here seems weak.
If sellers do not step in with enough strength, gold could continue rising toward the 0.786 Fibonacci zone at 2769 - 2771, where we need to observe price action carefully before entering trades. A key trendline resistance marks the highest barrier in this range.
💡 Key Market Influences:
Asian Bank Holiday (Lunar New Year): Liquidity will be significantly lower today, which may lead to a tighter price range in the Asian and early European sessions.
FOMC Data Release Tonight: The market will closely watch the statements from Fed Chairman Powell, as they could have a major impact on USD (DXY) and set the long-term direction for gold.
📊 Trading Strategy
During the Asian and European sessions, gold may maintain a bullish bias. Look for early BUY opportunities if the price holds around 2763 - 2765.
Wait for clear signals from FOMC before committing to strong positions during the US session.
💡 Intraday Trading Plan
BUY SCALP: 2755 - 2753
SL: 2750
TP: 2760 - 2763 - 2766 - 2770 - ????
BUY ZONE: 2743 - 2741
SL: 2736
TP: 2748 - 2752 - 2755 - 2760 - 2765 - 2770
SELL SCALP: 2771 - 2773
SL: 2776
TP: 2766 - 2762 - 2758 - 2752 - 2748 - 2745
SELL ZONE: 2785 - 2787
SL: 2792
TP: 2783 - 2780 - 2776 - 2772 - 2768 - 2765
⚠️ Important Notes
🔹 Low liquidity in the market could lead to unexpected price swings.
🔹 Be cautious with trades ahead of the FOMC release, as it will determine the next move for USD (DXY) and gold.
🔹 AD’s View: Gold may continue rising before dropping sharply if the FOMC releases statements favoring USD. However, price action confirmation is crucial before entering trades.
👉 Always follow TP/SL to protect your capital and maximize profits!
📢 Take Action Now!
👉 Follow KevinNguyen-SimpleTrade for expert market analysis and high-probability trading strategies! 🚀
👉 Share your thoughts and comment on gold’s expected movement today! 💰
Part 1: How to Analyze Events in the Forex Market?
The forex market is one of the most dynamic and volatile financial markets in the world. It is deeply influenced by global events, economic data, and geopolitical developments. Traders who understand how to analyze these events can make informed decisions and capitalize on market movements.
Influence Of the Global Events:
The forex market is directly linked to global economic health. Since currencies represent the economies of their respective countries, any significant event like an interest rate decision, inflation data, or geopolitical conflict. It can cause major fluctuations in currency prices. Here’s global events play important role:
- Central Bank Policies: When the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (ECB) changes interest rates, it impacts global liquidity and investment flows.
- Economic Data Releases: GDP growth, inflation, and employment reports provide insights into economic stability, affecting investor confidence.
- Geopolitical Events: Wars, elections, trade agreements, and diplomatic conflicts impact currency demand and risk sentiment.
What Happens When News Is Published?
When a major economic event or news release occurs, the forex market reacts instantly. Here’s the typical stages of events:
Stage 1: Market Expectations: Before the news release, traders anticipate the outcome based on forecasts. The market often prices in expectations.
Stage 2: Immediate Volatility: If the actual data differs from the forecast, there’s a sharp price movement in the affected currency pairs.
Stage 3: Liquidity Fluctuations: Spreads widen, and liquidity dries up momentarily as traders rush to execute orders.
Stage 4: Short-Term Correction: After the initial reaction, the market stabilizes, and price action follows the broader trend.
Major Events:
Central Bank Meetings – Institutions like the Fed, ECB, BoJ, and BoE set monetary policies. Interest rate hikes strengthen a currency, while rate cuts weaken it. Forward guidance also plays a role in shaping long-term trends.
Inflation Reports (CPI & PPI): These measure inflation levels, influencing central bank decisions. Higher inflation often leads to interest rate hikes, strengthening the currency, while lower inflation may result in monetary easing, weakening it.
Employment Data (NFP & Job Reports) – The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a key indicator. Strong job growth supports a stronger USD, while weak employment data signals economic trouble.
GDP Growth Reports –:A higher-than-expected GDP growth rate boosts investor confidence and strengthens the currency, while economic contraction leads to depreciation.
Political & Geopolitical Events: Elections, government policies, trade wars, and conflicts create uncertainty, often pushing investors toward safe-haven currencies like the USD, JPY, or CHF.
One's Loss, Another's Win:
When the U.S. releases strong economic data, such as higher-than-expected GDP growth, strong job reports (NFP), or an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, The demand for the U.S. dollar increases. This leads to USD appreciation against other currencies, including the euro.
For example,
---> EUR/USD falls : USD is gaining strength, it takes fewer dollars to buy 1 euro, causing the EUR/USD exchange rate to drop.
---> USD/EUR rises : USD is now wortth more, the inverse exchange rate (USD/EUR) increases, meaning 1 USD can now buy more euro.
Key strategies for trading events:
•Stay Ahead with an Event Calendar: Keep track of important economic events and central bank meetings to anticipate potential market-moving news.
• Gauge Market Expectations: Understand forecasts and market sentiment before the event to predict how the market might react.
• Implement Stop-Loss Orders: Protect your trades from excessive risk by setting stop-loss orders to cap potential losses during volatile moves.
• Wait for Market Stability: Allow the market to settle after the event to avoid getting caught in the initial volatility and better assess the trend.
• Evaluate the Market’s Response: Assess the immediate market reaction to the event to identify if the initial price move is sustainable or a short-term spike.
Drawbacks of Trading News:
High Volatility & Whipsaws: Prices can spike in both directions before settling on a trend, leading to stop-loss hunting.
Widened Spreads: During news releases, brokers often widen spreads, increasing trading costs.
Slippage: Rapid price movements can lead to orders being executed at unexpected prices.
Emotional Trading: Sudden market swings can trigger impulsive decisions, leading to losses.
Market Manipulation: Big players and institutions often move the market unpredictably before major news releases.
In the next part, we will focus on the specific events and strategies.
XAU#9: FED keeps interest rates unchanged. Information supportin💎 💎 💎 The previous plan helps you make a profit. Please like and follow the channel to follow the earliest trading plan 💎 💎 💎
🔥So Gold has returned to the support zone of 2745 and reacted strongly as the previous plan. Here's our next trading plan 🔥
1️⃣ **Fundamental analysis:**
📊 🔴Market speculation that US may impose import tariffs on gold
London gold market participants are racing to borrow central bank gold stored in London as gold deliveries to the US surge on speculation that the US may impose import tariffs
🚀 🔴Fed keeps rates unchanged, drops mention of inflation "progress" in policy statement
2️⃣ **Technical analysis:**
🔹 **D frame:** yesterday closed as a Hanging Man candle. However, the price action after this candle still needs market confirmation in today's trading session
🔹 **H4 frame:** The support zone of 2745 is playing an important role. The price is still in an upward structure.
🔹 **H1 frame:** The trendline zone that matches the support of 2745 is showing a strong reaction after the interest rate announcement. If the price can break through the resistance zone above, Gold will have enough momentum to break through the old peak
3️⃣ **Trading plan:**
⛔ In the current area, it will be risky if we take a SELL position here. Although it is also a resistance zone, H4 has a hugging candlestick pattern with an increasing structure. If H4 closes at 2752, we will consider this option later
✅If anyone has an order in the 2745 area, Congratulations!!! You can wait for a higher profit. If not, you can choose to react to test the trendline again on the H1 frame for confirmation. We will wait for a price structure on a small time frame like m15 to establish a position.
💪🚀 **Wish you successful trading!**
📌 For any questions, please contact directly. I am ready to answer for you for free
#trading #trade #xauusd #newtrader #newbie #xau #forex #tradingview #plants #trader #tradingforex
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Technical AnalysisTechnical analysis is a means of examining and predicting price movements in the financial markets, by using historical price charts and market statistics. It is based on the idea that if a trader can identify previous market patterns, they can form a fairly accurate prediction of future price trajectories.
How to perform technical analysis
Identifying the trend. This is the first step in technical analysis for traders because trading strategies can either follow the trend or go against the trend. ...
Drawing support and resistance levels. ...
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Position sizing and risk management.
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It is a high-stakes game where many are lured by the promise of quick riches but ultimately face harsh realities. One of the harsh realities of trading is the “Rule of 90,” which suggests that 90% of new traders lose 90% of their starting capital within 90 days of their first trade.
Lecture For Option Trader or Intraday TraderIntraday trading, also known as day trading, means buying and selling stocks on the same day to profit from price changes. Traders need to close their trades before the market closes. If not, the broker might automatically close them or turn them into regular trades.
Yes, profits from intraday trading are considered business income and taxed according to your income tax slab. How is intraday trading taxed? Intraday trading profits are treated as short-term capital gains, added to taxable income, and taxed based on applicable slab rates.
Advanced Option Trading with Professionals Let's review each part of the professional trader's mind to understand where you want to be, ideally as you develop as an online trader.
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When options are better. Options can be a better choice when you want to limit risk to a certain amount. Options can allow you to earn a stock-like return while investing less money, so they can be a way to limit your risk within certain bounds. Options can be a useful strategy when you're an advanced investor.
Advanced TradingOptions are a type of contract that gives the buyer the right to buy or sell a security at a specified price at some point in the future. An option holder is essentially paying a premium for the right to buy or sell the security within a certain time frame.
Technical analysis is a means of examining and predicting price movements in the financial markets, by using historical price charts and market statistics. It is based on the idea that if a trader can identify previous market patterns, they can form a fairly accurate prediction of future price trajectories.
Focus on USD and gold: DXY bearish signal and market dynamics🔍 Technical Observations
On the H4 timeframe, the Head and Shoulders pattern on DXY has completed, signaling a potential strong reversal.
Recent Decline: DXY has dropped sharply to the nearest Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone at 107.2xx - 107.5xx, where price reacted significantly.
Correlation with Gold: Gold returned to its all-time high zone last week and reacted with a pullback of nearly 20 points, demonstrating the inverse relationship between the two assets.
📊 Technical Analysis
DXY:
Support at FVG Zone: Following a sharp rally fueled by FOMO over Trump’s election victory, DXY reached a high liquidity void and has since reversed.
Head and Shoulders Pattern: The failure to break the nearest resistance level on H4 triggered a significant sell-off.
Gold:
Correction After Rally: Gold appears to have completed its bullish wave at a critical resistance zone, indicating a potential start of a corrective phase.
💡 Key Factors Impacting DXY
Monetary Policy:
Decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on interest rates continue to have a major influence on DXY.
If the Fed signals a dovish stance, further pressure on DXY is expected.
Economic Data:
Indicators such as unemployment rates, GDP growth, and inflation will shape investor expectations for USD strength.
Weak data may contribute to a downward trend in DXY.
Political Climate:
Trump’s election victory initially created FOMO-driven momentum. However, upcoming trade and fiscal policies could significantly shift the market direction.
🔮 Outlook for the Coming Week
Based on recent developments:
Technical Trends: DXY remains in a corrective downtrend, with further downside likely unless key resistance levels on H4 are breached.
Market Sentiment:
Weak economic data or dovish Fed signals may add downward pressure.
Positive surprises from economic or political factors could lead to a swift reversal.
📢 Share Your Thoughts!
How do you think DXY and gold will perform in the coming week?
👉 Follow KevinNguyen-SimpleTrade for more insights, strategies, and updates! 🚀
Gold under Pullback /correction As dicussed in weekly analyis video and previous posts , price currently under a pullback and we have to wait for lower pullback zones for re-buying ::
- First Pullbcak zone: 2755-2760 (marked in green, first zone , price currently testing this zone)
- Second Pullbcak zone: 2735-2740 (green zone in Middle)
- Third Pullbcak zone: 2720-2725 (Last green zone, we also have first Fib support level for the cycle of 2585-2785)
Swing to Intra day Approach:
Rather than buying immediately, waiting for a deeper pullback can provide us a good risk management, looking for buy setups at these pullback zones makes sense given overall bullish trend structure remains intact,These levels align with previous structure(Swing High, Low) with Better risk-reward ratio from these lower entries.
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