USD/JPY 15-Minute Chart AnalysisKey Observations:
1. Trendline Break:
- A potential break below the upward trendline indicates bearish momentum.
2. Supply Zone:
- The price is trading within a highlighted supply zone.
3. Short Trade Setup:
- A short position will be active after breakdown, with the following targets and stop-loss:
- Stop-Loss: Above 157.440
- Target 1: 156.76
- Target 2: 156.493
- Target 3: 156.100
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Trading Scenarios:
1. Bearish Continuation:
- If the price sustains below 157.030, bearish momentum is likely to accelerate toward 156.100.
2. Invalidation of Bearish Setup:
- A move above 157.6 would invalidate this bearish setup, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
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Trading Plan:
- Entry (Sell): Below 157.030, targeting 156.810, 156.500, and 156.090.
- **Stop-Loss**: Above **157.436**.
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This trade setup is in line with bearish market structure, but closely monitor price action around support levels and trailing stop-loss adjustments as the trade progresses.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Trade responsibly.
Forex
Gold Technical Analysis: Shift in Market Structure?The price has indeed moved up significantly and is now testing a key resistance zone around 2655-2672 (Fib Golden Zone), yesterdays upward movement has been steady and consistent,Price has successfully broken above the previous resistance(2635-39) which is now a support area, also there's a notable increase in volume on the recent upward move, price has maintained higher lows and higher highs in the short term,
However,
We're approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance level,The price is at the upper range of the recent consolidation zone and price is now trading the weekly R2 level so to initiate buy we have to wait for pullback for a possible re test of support area and on rejection we can plan the buy .
The original downside target of 2536-50 will be considered invalid unless price breaks back below 2638 with significant volume. Key invalidation level for bulls: A close below 2638 on H4 that can drag the price in previous consolidation area.
Gold Update : No change so far ,still in sideways range Price is trading within a defined range, with 2639 as the upper boundary and 2585 as lower boundary.
Despite recent upward movement, lack of volume confirmation suggests caution for last two day up move. The original downside target (2536-50) remains valid until we see a decisive break above mentioned resistance levels with strong volume support.
What We Need for Bullish Confirmation:?
Clear break and close above 2639
Price need to sustain above 2650-55 on Higher Time Frame.
Need Strong volume to support the move
Until these conditions are met, my original downside target remains valid from a technical perspective .The current price action appears to be in a decision zone, and the lack of volume confirmation suggests this could still be a temporary move rather than a trend reversal so I will wait for good confirmation before initiating buy trade.
GOLD Getting ready for 2025Current price action suggests we're entering a critical phase for Gold. After the strong uptrend from June-October, we're seeing signs of temporary weakness that could extend into early January 2025(1 or 2 Week).
Major Support zone around 2536-2,550 (Area of Interest : AOI)
Expecting a test of this support in early January
Volume declining, suggesting a major move is brewing.
→ Short-term: Potential weakness and test toward support zone
→ Medium-term: Looking for bottom formation around 2536-2,550 area
→ Long-term: Expecting bullish rally after support confirmation
Gold is in RangeAs per TPO chart on gold for 30 Min:
Market Sentiments looks like the market is trying to find its base after that sharp drop we saw last week. There's been some buying interest as the price has started to stabilize a bit higher, but the ups and downs show there's still some uncertainty in the air. We have seen multiple rejection from 30-35 area and the dip from this range might suggest a bit of short-term bearishness, but since we're still close to the normal trading range(2620-40 Now), it's not too alarming.
Gold is currently stuck in Sideways range The 4-hour gold chart shows a consolidating price around 2600-2,630 area, following a downtrend and a slight recovery attempt. Key support lies at 2,600 as a psychological level, with resistance around 2,650 for a breakout confirmation. F or intraday trades, the bias is neutral, Swing traders should wait for a breakout above 2,650 for a move toward 2,700+ or a breakdown below 2,600 for a drop toward 2,550.
The market appears indecisive, so focus on quick trades until a clear direction emerges.
On daily TF The chart is in a clear uptrend , with higher highs and higher lows. the price finding support around the 2,600 level: This suggests the market is in a retracement phase, potentially gearing up for the next big move and we need to wait for potential buying opportunity soon within 1-2 weeks in January after confirmations.
Gold : Almost flat in Holiday weak Gold price is now trading in structure like a bearish flag, which usually means it might not be done falling yet.
Right now, gold's hanging out around 2,619-20, near to weekly pivot point " If price decides to break out below this flag, it's probably going to keep sliding down, looking for support at lower levels. If by some chance it decides to pop up, it'll have to fight through some resistance to keep climbing and the main resistance that we have to watch in higher side is 2650 for bullish continuation. Given that it's the holiday season, it makes sense that the price is just chilling out, moving sideways with not much action going on.
Gold is in range : Current Price Action and Intraday Levels We have seen a recent downtrend (Short Period )after hitting a peak. The price has fallen below the previous support area and consolidation range (highlighted in yellow),and currently consolidating (In grey Box)suggesting sideways to bearish momentum. However, the consolidation could also imply that the market might be looking for direction (Wait for break in any direction).
Current Price Action: Gold is currently priced at around $2,624.235, which is slightly above the pivot point (P) at $2,624.000. The price has shown a recent decline from the high of around $2,673.453, indicating a bearish sentiment in the short term.
Resistance Levels based on Weekly Pivots:
R1 is at $2,664.085, which was recently tested and acted as resistance. If the price moves up, this level could act as a resistance again.
R2 at $2,704.560 and R3 at $2,744.645 are further resistance levels to watch if there's a strong bullish move.
Support Levels based on Weekly Pivots:
S1 is at $2,583.525, which is quite close to the current price. If the price breaks below the pivot point, this could be the first support level to watch.
S2 at $2,543.440 and S3 at $2,502.965 are deeper support levels where buyers might step in.
As discussed in weekly analysis video I am currently waiting for a swing buy opportunity ; and waiting for Lower level in 2550-2530 or Low area , or need confirmation above 2650 if price want to move directly in higher side without testing the lower levels .
Gold Trading Strategies for 23rd December 2024Gold Trading Strategies
Strategy 1: Breakout Strategy
Buy Above: Enter a buy position above the high of the 15-minute candle that closes above 2636.
Upside Targets: 2650, 2665, 2680
Sell Below: Enter a sell position below the low of the 15-minute candle that closes below 2611.
Downside Targets: 2600, 2587, 2570
Strategy 2: Support Zone Buy Strategy
If the price trends lower from 2625:
Buy Between: 2610-2616
Stop Loss: 2604
Targets: 2625, 2635, 2650
Strategy 3: Resistance Zone Sell Strategy
If the price trends higher from 2623:
Sell Between: 2635-2645
Stop Loss: 2655
Targets: 2625, 2615, 2600
Summary:
Breakout Strategy: Utilizes the breakout levels of 2636 for buying and 2611 for selling based on the 15-minute candle close, with defined upside and downside targets.
Support Zone Buy Strategy: Focuses on buying in the support zone of 2610-2616 with a stop loss at 2604, targeting 2625, 2635, and 2650.
Resistance Zone Sell Strategy: Targets selling in the resistance zone of 2635-2645 with a stop loss at 2655, aiming for targets of 2625, 2615, and 2600.
These strategies provide a comprehensive approach to trading gold, incorporating different market conditions and defined targets.
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Please consult with a certified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
"BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL.” Subject :
During this period, I view the market downturn as an opportunity to acquire quality stocks at lower valuations for long-term investment. As mentioned above, I am particularly interested in key levels for potential entry points. I wanted to share these insights with all of you, hoping you find them helpful. Thank you, everyone!🙏🏻
The recent downturn in both Indian and global stock markets can be attributed to several
key factors:
1. Monetary Policy Shifts: The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decision to reduce the number of projected interest rate cuts for 2025 has heightened investor concerns.
2. Rising Treasury Yields: A significant selloff in long-dated U.S. government debt has pushed 10- and 30-year Treasury yields to their highest levels in nearly seven months. This trend poses a threat to stock valuations, as higher yields make risk-free government debt more attractive compared to equities.
3. Geopolitical Concerns: The potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and his proposed economic policies, have raised fears of increased inflation and global trade tensions. These uncertainties contribute to market instability.
* Escalating conflicts in regions such as the Middle East have increased market volatility and investor uncertainty.
4. Foreign Investor Behavior: In India, heavy selling by foreign institutional investors has exerted downward pressure on markets. This trend is influenced by global monetary policies and a reduced appetite for risk amid prevailing uncertainties.
5. Sector-Specific Declines: Sectors such as financials and information technology have experienced notable losses, further dragging down market indices.
These combined factors have led to a bearish trend in both Indian and international stock markets in recent weeks.
About Reliance industries limited 📉:
1. Weak Performance in the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) Segment: RIL's O2C business, a significant revenue contributor, has faced challenges due to shrinking margins amid global oversupply. In the second quarter of FY25, the company reported a 5% decline in net profit, largely attributed to poor performance in its oil refining and petrochemical business. This segment was significantly impacted by cheap Russian crude oil flooding the market, pushing product margins lower.
2. Delays in IPOs of Jio and Retail.
3. Slowing Growth in the Retail Business: RIL's retail division has encountered slower growth, influenced by factors such as rising real estate costs and increased.
4. Broader Market Trends and Investor Behavior.
#valueinvesting. #indianstockmarket. #Reliance
Gold Still Looking weak Gold prices have shown weakness, with the market currently positioned below key resistance levels, suggesting a bearish outlook in Intra day. The immediate resistance is seen at the previous support level around 2620-2625, which may act as a psychological barrier for the price to overcome.
Immediate Resistance: 2620-2625 - This level has previously acted as support but now could serve as resistance. A move above this could signal a potential short-term recovery.
Immediate Support: 2588 - This level corresponds to the close on FOMC day, representing a critical support area where buyers might step in if the price tests this level again.
If gold fails to hold above the FOMC day close, there's a risk of further downside also 2580 level acting as a key trendline support, where a failure could lead to more significant declines. The next significant support to watch is around 2568 or a potential move towards 2569 (Fib extension 0.618) if current trends persist, and further levels down to 2537 (November's low), which is a high volume node where buying interest might re-emerge. A break below this could lead to further declines, targeting lower supports; For a bullish signal, gold would need to convincingly close above 2650 if it reverse without breaking 2588 on day close.
Gold on FOMC DayGold price is still looking weak technically and price is failing to claim weekly pivot(2667) in last two trading days of this week; For FOMC my view is still same , means I am expecting one ore leg down and in lower side we have to wait rejection at weekly S1(2608 or 2600 area) or 2568 / 2530-35 Levels for low in December for buying opportunities ( Expecting a low around 22-26 December)
Also in higher side price need to claim 2700 area if price move in bullish side directly today after FOMC to re claim the bullish continuation.
Gold after FOMCAS EXPECTED , in previous post on gold the price was looking weak and after FOMC we have seen a decent correction in alignment with that view , on daily time frame price breakdown two supports I.e., 2620 and 2600, as you can see on the chart the price is now bouncing from lower TF oversold areas but still looking weak, next support as per weekly pivot is at 2568 and then 2530-35 area, As I am waiting from last week for this area for potential bottom in December so that I can plan a swing buy trade from this area. As per current PA ,last day candle is good bearish candle so there is no confirmation of any buy opportunity right now so it's better to wait for more confirmation from lower levels before entering in swing buy .
Gold started the week in almost Flat day After a relatively flat day yesterday, the price is still holding above last week's close of 2648 on higher time frame, and waiting for FOMC day, this kind of flat movement after good decline generally turn into consolidation for short period as everyone want to see the data first.
Given the current position above last week's close, immediate support could be found around the 2648-50 area. If this level holds, it could provide a foundation for any potential bullish moves. breakdown from this zone can resume the decline towards weekly S1 2608 -2600 area or low.
As discussed in previous posts I am still without any entry and waiting for buying confirmation after or during the FOMC day ..Till then it's a waiting and watching scenario.
Gold in FOMC weekGold now under sideways area as marked on chart and for this week price opened under weekly pivot (2667) ; we have seen two days of good decline in last week closing.
Personally I want to see more corrections towards 2610 and then 2530 area for potentials bottom for December , breakdown from 2530 on daily / weekly can open room for decline.
In case of bullish scenario after FOMC price need to re claim 2790 and then we can expect bullish continuation towards 3000.
As during year end markets can be a wild ride , and for this week we have high impact data releases and risk are very high , focus on risk management and try to trade on double sure entry ; I am also waiting for swing opportunity from last week and expecting that we can find this swing by this weekend.
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Gold taking a breakAfter PPI data gold is taking break and we have seen a good correction from the buy move : In previous posts I was expecting more strength before a pullback, but gold price faced big resistance at 2715-21 zone.
Now if we draw the fib levels for this current correction that started form yesterday the zone 2700-06 is resistance area for bulls and bull need to claim this zone first to see higher levels and under this we can expect more decline.
In lower side the previous day close (2680) is the level that we have to watch on Intra day.
If price close H1 or H4 under this level then we can expect more decline in lower side.
The first support is PDL (2675) and next support as per Fib is 2669 (50%) and 2656 (60% retracement Level).
For Intra day we can watch these levels and can plan our trade accordingly and for Swing we have to wait for confirmation of possible low on weekly close (Or most probably in mid of next week).
Gold claimed 2720 level now time to make a HHAs discussed in last two days posts gold is now claiming the 2715-21 area and reversed the correction phase completely, after CPI gold printed a good bullish candle and the day closed Just under this zone , now a breakout on this zone can push the price towards next resistance area with high volume (area at 2738-55) and can make a pullback from there , on pullback we can plan buy as marked on chart.
2715-20 area is good resistance and we have seen good rejection from this level today in Asian opening session, and breakout from this area can provide opportunity on Intraday Buy scalping , and next level for Intra day sell in scalping is 2738.
I am still watching and waiting for swing opportunity and expecting a swing buy in next week (around Dec. 17 to dec 20) till then scalping on Intra day levels is good.
EUR/USD Technical and Fundamental OutlookAs the week comes to a close, EUR/USD is trading around 1.0575, maintaining its bullish momentum. The pair is moving within an ascending wedge pattern, supported by the EMA 34 and EMA 89, which underscores a steady upward trajectory.
From a technical standpoint, the price is holding near the upper boundary of the wedge, with immediate resistance seen at 1.0585. A breakout above this level could pave the way for further upside, targeting the next significant level around 1.0620. This structure signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend if key resistance levels are breached.
On the fundamental side, the current uptrend is bolstered by positive sentiment surrounding data from the Eurozone and a weakening demand for the US Dollar. These factors are creating a supportive environment for the Euro, encouraging sustained buying pressure in the pair.
Looking ahead, traders should closely monitor the wedge breakout, as it could provide a clearer signal for the pair's trajectory into next week. Whether EUR/USD extends its gains or faces rejection at resistance will largely depend on both technical confirmations and evolving market fundamentals.