EUR/USD Trend Analysis: Will Bulls Take Control?EUR/USD Trend Analysis: Will Bulls Take Control?
EURUSD continues to trade inside a broad descending structure that has been active for several weeks, with repeated breaks of structure marking the gradual weakening of bearish momentum. The pair has shown consistent attempts to reclaim internal structure, revealing that sellers are losing dominance at each successive swing.
The recent price action highlights a slowdown in the bearish cycle, with the pair forming a compressed consolidation near the lower boundary of the channel. This type of price behavior typically represents absorption, where liquidity is collected before a potential directional shift. Multiple bullish breaks within the current leg signal that the market is preparing for a transition phase.
The chart illustrates a clear reaction to the most recent liquidity sweep, followed by a controlled reset in order flow. Buyers have stepped in aggressively in previous cycles after similar setups, suggesting that the market is once again positioning itself for a recovery attempt toward higher inefficiencies.
Volume distribution from the left side of the chart shows earlier institutional engagement, and the current region aligns with historical accumulation behaviors seen in prior EURUSD reversals. If the pair maintains strength within this consolidation pocket, the next move could be a bullish repricing wave targeting unmitigated zones above.
Overall, EURUSD is showing signs of shift and structural recovery, with the current pattern favoring a bullish reaction in the coming sessions.
Forextraders
Gold Eyes New Highs Ahead of US CPI as Fed Preps for Hikes.Gold made an eight-month high overnight despite the US Dollar gaining against most currencies.
The US 10-year real yield dipped under 1.35% today as it continues to slide from the late December peak above 1.6%.
The real yield is the nominal Treasury note yield less the breakeven inflation rate for the same tenor. As gold does not possess an interest rate of return, changes in the real yield of alternative investments may play a role in sentiment toward its value.
The precious metal may have also been lifted by industrial metals that have rallied on hopes that China’s post-pandemic re-opening will ignite construction and industrial production there.
Iron ore, aluminium, copper and nickel have all notched solid gains since China abandoned its zero-case Covid-19 policy.
Treasuries added 3 to 10 basis points across the curve in the US session with the larger gains seen in the back end of the curve. They have slipped slightly so far today.
The US Dollar is holding onto recent gains, but currencies have generally had a quiet Asian session.
The stock market seems to be optimistic about the possibility of a soft US CPI on Thursday. It appears to be ignoring what the Fed is saying about rates needing to be higher than what is currently priced and that they will need to stay there for a long time.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated this sentiment in a speech in Florida.
The world bank is less upbeat than they were previously. They cut their global growth forecast for 2023 to 1.7% from 2.9% yesterday.
Nonetheless, Wall Street finished the cash session and this fed into a positive day for all the major APAC bourses.
Australian retail sales were released today and came in at 1.4% month-on-month for November, notably above the 0.6% forecast and -0.2% previously.
The year-on-year figure to the end of November was 7.4% rather than the 7.2% anticipated and 6.9% prior. AUD/USD blipped up but soon retraced.
Crude oil declined with the WTI futures contract near US$ 74.50 bbl and the Brent contract a touch under US$ 79.50 bbl.
There will be a number of ECB speakers today and the US will see some mortgage data.
USDCAD ANALYSIS ON H4 CHART.Overall, USD/CAD is ranging across. Recently, USD/CAD broke below the key level of 1.28.
The Canadian employment data released last Friday indicated a strong rebound in the jobs market from the previous month’s loss of jobs.
- Employment Change (Actual: 336.6K, Forecast: 132.0K, Previous: -200.1K)
- Unemployment Rate (Actual: 5.5%, Forecast: 6.2%, Previous: 6.5%)
USD/CAD’s next support zone is at 1.26100 and the next resistance zone is at 1.29200.
Look for short-term selling opportunities of USD/CAD.





