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Forextrading

AUDUSD bulls need validation from 0.6720 to keep the reinsAUDUSD bulls struggle to keep command at the highest level since January as a jump in the Aussie Unemployment Rate supersedes upbeat Employment Change data from the Pacific major and challenges the previous day’s run-up. That said, the risk-barometer pair marked the biggest daily rise in six months on Thursday after softer US inflation and Retail Sales numbers drowned the US Dollar. The Aussie pair’s upside also took clues from hopes about more stimulus from China. Technically, the upbeat RSI (14) and the bullish MACD signals join the AUDUSD pair’s upside break of a four-month-old horizontal resistance, now immediate support near 0.6645-40, to keep the buyers hopeful. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from early February 2023, near 0.6720 by the press time, challenges the quote’s immediate upside. Following that, the pair’s quick run-up toward the yearly high of 0.6839 and then to the late 2023 peak surrounding 0.6870 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the March 2024 peak of near 0.6665 acts as immediate support for the pair traders to watch ahead of the aforementioned resistance-turned-support near 0.6645-40. It’s worth noting that a one-month-old rising support line of around 0.6610, quickly followed by the 0.6600 threshold, will act as the final defense of the AUDUSD buyers before giving control to the sellers. Overall, the AUDUSD pair remains on the bull’s radar but the pair’s further upside hinges on a daily closing beyond 0.6720.
by MTradingGlobal
USDMXN - Ready to Blast Again ? Last week, I took long position in UDMXN at 16.66000 & Closed at 16.92500 Closed that position in more that $5000 profit in just 2-3 days. My long setup is formed again in USDMXN Taking long positions here at CMP 16.67000 My SL would be 16.62000 Target I'm expecting is 17.00000 Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
Long
by akshit_official
EUR/USD: A Third Wave of an Impulse in Sight Analysis The advance from Oct. 03, 2023 low of 1.0448 to 1.1140 subdivides into five waves. This wave pattern is significant because impulse waves identify the direction of the dominant trend. Thus the five wave advance implies further buying to come that would take prices above 1.1140 as wave 3. The subsequent decline in EUR/USD is developing in three waves; Double Zigzag correction labelled ((w))-((x))-((y)) with wave ((y) in progress, supports this analysis. Counter trend price action typically consists of three waves, it's slow, choppy and often contained within parallel lines. The depth of corrective wave guideline suggests that corrections tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree, most often ending near its terminus. More over, in ratio relationships, sharp corrections tend more frequently to retrace 61.8% of the previous wave particularly when they occur as wave 2 of an Impulse or wave B in a larger Zigzag. Observe that this level is near the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree. Within wave 2, wave ((y)) = 0.618 X ((w)) at 1.0701. Observe that this level is near the previous guidelines. All this evidence virtually suggest that a bottom is at hand and a reversal could be around the corner. Trade Plan Entry: Buy at Market Price Protective Stop: 1.0448;in an Impulse wave 2 CAN NEVER retrace 100% of wave 1. Target: 1120 pips; in an Impulse the third wave commonly travels 1.618 times the gain of the first as in; wave 1 = 692 pips (1.1140-1.0448), wave 3 = (1.618 X 692) Risk-Reward: 1:3
Long
by Aquanet_Market_Forecast
2
April 2, 2024 trading strategyThe record rise in gold prices is a sign that investors are worried that the Fed will not be able to control inflation when it starts cutting interest rates. Investors should wait for a pullback before buying. Gold may return to the price of 2,150 USD and will attract a number of new investors. The upward trend of world gold prices continues as the market is witnessing that central banks of countries are selling off the USD. to buy gold. If the US job market is stronger than expected, combined with "persistent" inflation, it may force the Fed to delay the start of the monetary policy loosening cycle. This will negatively impact precious metals.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TrategySherpa
XAU price today April 1, 2024 reached a historic peakCME's FedWatch probability indicator shows that there is a 62% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in June. Lower interest rates often weaken the USD, making gold more attractive for investors holding other currencies. Another important factor contributing to the rise in gold prices is the continued purchase of physical gold by central banks around the world. Increased demand will directly impact prices, pushing gold prices to record highs. ECB policy planning member Francois Villeroy said that achieving the ECB's 2% inflation target is feasible. At the same time, he also warned about potential risks if the ECB does not cut interest rates. ECB executive board member Fabio Panetta hinted on Thursday that "the conditions for launching an easy monetary policy are gradually emerging." According to experts, central banks' gold purchases, impending interest rate cuts and concerns about inflation are the driving forces for gold prices to continue to increase in the short term. Bob Haberkorn, an expert at RJO Futures, said that closer to June, the market will see gold prices rise higher due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TrategySherpa
AUDJPY: Ending Diagonal Pattern; A Reversal on the Horizon.The advance from Mar 24, 2023 low of 86.06 subdivides into five waves. Notice that this price action contains overlapping waves that contract and form a wedge shape. That is the emblem of an ending diagonal which cues a swift and dramatic reversal on the horizon. According to Elliott Wave guideline, the expected reversal is projected to reach at least the point where the diagonal initiation occurred, and potentially extend beyond. In this instance, the relevant level is identified by the conclusion of wave ((b)) at 86.06. A salient attribute of ending diagonal is that all initial subwaves form either a single or multiple zigzag patterns. Waves (i), (iii), (iv) and (v) appear to be single zigzags, while wave (ii) is a double zigzag. Wave (v) often makes a throw-over (a brief break beyond the trendline connecting waves (i) and (iii) ). A throw-over suggests a diagonal has finished. Once price action pushes below the trendline connecting waves (ii) and (iv), we would have compelling proof that the diagonal has ended. The next event should be a swift move to at least 86.06 and probably beyond. The wave count is not the sole basis for considering a short position. Beyond what is illustrated, there has been a divergence in prices and MACD since June 16, 2023, suggesting a diminishing upward momentum and indicating a weakening uptrend. Despite new highs in prices on November 16, 2023 and February 21, 2024, MACD did not follow suit. This bearish divergence frequently foreshadows a potential downturn in prices. (Insert MACD on your chart and draw a trendline connecting the highs) Trading Plan Entry: Sell above wave (iii) high. Protective Stop: 100.95; the price level at which wave (v) would be longer than wave (iii), which would render our diagonal scenario invalid. As a rule, within a contracting ending diagonal, wave three is always shorter than wave one, and wave five is always shorter than wave three. Target: 86.06 and below Risk-Reward: 1:5
Short
by Aquanet_Market_Forecast
XAU short-term trading and strategyThe path back to target inflation, like the path to a soft landing, is always narrow and treacherous. And there are some worrying developments that could shake up the “endless deflation” the US has experienced over the past few months, potentially pushing back policy easing beyond March. Favorable financial conditions: a leading indicator of real GDP, which has increased from 10% to 90% in six months, suggests that economic conditions are likely to remain stable at least in the short term. And if GDP increases, inflation may be difficult to reduce. Labor costs are not increasing: Rebalancing in the labor market occurs between job openings and quit rates, not unemployment rates. The employment cost index tends to follow the National Federation of Independent Business's small business compensation plan. At that point, the number rose, approaching the point where the Fed had to react hawkishly. Helter Skelter Shelter: Rents are forecast not to fall much in 2024, likely to contribute 17-20 basis points to core inflation in January and February, leaving no room for further contributions before Core inflation exceeds the Fed's target. Tensions in the Red Sea have begun to impact freight costs, leading to increased pressure on supply chains - a key driver of rising inflation in 2022, especially in Europe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TrategySherpa
1
USDJPY lures bears as FOMC, NFP week beginsUSDJPY makes rounds to 148.00 early Monday as the key week comprising the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting and the US employment report begins. That said, the Yen pain snapped a three-week uptrend in the last while fading the bounce within a three-week-old triangle. While the hawkish hopes from the Fed and likely firmer prints of the US job numbers seem to tease the US Dollar bulls, hopes of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) exit from ultra-easy policy and positioning for the US data/events lure sellers. It’s worth noting, however, that the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the aforementioned triangle’s bottom line, respectively near 147.50 and 147.35, could test the bears before welcoming them. Even so, the 200-EMA level of around 146.10, quickly followed by the 146.00 round figure, will act as the final defense of the buyers. Meanwhile, a one-week-old descending resistance line surrounding 148.50 guards immediate recovery of the USDJPY pair. Following that, the previously stated triangle’s top line, near 149.30 by the press time, will be important to watch for the quote’s further upside. In a case where the Yen pair buyers keep the reins past 149.30, the 150.00 threshold and November’s peak of around 151.90 are likely to gain the market’s attention. Overall, the USDJPY pair buyers lack momentum as the top-tier US data/events loom.
by MTradingGlobal