Nykaa - Strong Growth Cup & Handle with Detailed fundamentalsFSN E-Commerce Ventures Limited (Nykaa) – Technical & Fundamental Analysis
Company Overview:
FSN E-Commerce Ventures Limited (Nykaa) is a digitally native consumer technology platform, delivering a content-led, lifestyle retail experience. Since its incorporation in 2012, the company has focused on designing a differentiated brand discovery journey for its consumers. It offers a diverse portfolio of beauty, personal care, and fashion products, including owned-brand products manufactured in-house. Nykaa provides an omnichannel experience to cater to consumer preferences and convenience.
Technical Analysis
Chart Patterns: Cup and handle breakout; Today 1-hour parallel channel breakout
Current Market Price (CMP): ₹260
Targets: ₹301, ₹350
Support Levels: ₹230, ₹195
Recent News & Highlights
✅Q1 FY26 Results: Consolidated net profit surged 142% YoY to ₹23.30 Cr; revenue up 23.4% to ₹2,155 Cr
✅Arbitration Win: Nykaa Fashion received ₹10 Cr compensation from arbitration award
Q1 FY26 Guidance: Management anticipates consolidated net revenue growth at lower end of mid-twenties range YoY
✅Fashion Segment Target: Company expects EBITDA breakeven in fashion by FY26
✅Organic Portfolio Expansion: Aims to increase organic portfolio by 30% annually to reach ₹6,000 Cr GMV
✅Q4 FY25 Performance: EBITDA ₹133 Cr vs ₹93.28 Cr YoY; EBITDA margin improved to 6.47% from 5.59%
✅Corporate Action: NCLT approved merger of Iluminar Media (LBB) into Nykaa Fashion
Analytical Summary
Operational Excellence: Revenue growth of 24.5% YoY with net profit doubling to ₹66.08 Cr demonstrates strong execution and operating leverage. The company is scaling both beauty and fashion verticals while expanding margins.
Capital Structure: Debt increased 41% to ₹961 Cr, but debt-to-equity remains negligible at 0.04, showing conservative leverage. ROE at 5.9% suggests room for improvement in capital efficiency.
Valuation Risk: PE of 675.77 and PB of 40.5 reflect aggressive growth expectations. EV/EBITDA of 117.5 leaves minimal margin of safety, requiring caution for long-term investors.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths (16 Factors):
Rising net and operating cash flows for 2 consecutive years
Strong EPS growth; quarterly profit margins expanding
Improving RoCE, ROE, and ROA
Consistent revenue growth for past 2 quarters
Clean governance; zero promoter pledge
Weaknesses (3 Factors):
Promoter shareholding dilution
Expensive valuation (PE > 40) limits margin of safety
Opportunities (1 Factor):
Increasing FII/FPI shareholding validates institutional interest
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing in stocks involve risks, and individuals should conduct their own due diligence or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any gains or losses arising from the use of this analysis.
Fundamental-analysis
Cholamandalam Financial Holdings Ltd (CFHL) Triangle Breakout 1DCholamandalam Financial Holdings Ltd (CFHL) – Triangle Breakout & 1-Year Resistance Breakout 🚀
📊 Technical View:
CFHL has given a triangle breakout along with a 1-year resistance breakout, indicating strong bullish momentum. If Trend continues, The price action also shows a successful retest of the breakout zone, shows trend continuation.
Resistance Turned Support: ₹1650 – previously a resistance, now acting as strong support.
Current Action: Price broke above the ₹1650 range, retested the level today , and is now moving upward again.
Next Resistance Targets Levels: ₹1824 / ₹2004
Support Levels: ₹1536 / ₹1410
🏦 Company Overview:
Cholamandalam Financial Holdings Limited (CFHL), incorporated in 1949, is a part of the Murugappa Group, one of India’s most diversified business conglomerates.
CFHL is a Non-Deposit Taking Systemically Important Core Investment Company (CIC) registered with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
The company holds substantial investments in group companies and provides a diverse range of financial products and risk management services to individual and corporate clients through its subsidiaries and group companies.
📈 For educational purpose only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB) – Update | 3.5% Move from Our Lvl🟢 Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB) – Update | 3.5% Move from Our Level 🚀
Latest Update : Our analysis shared around ₹499 has played out well — TMB made an intraday high of ₹517, gaining nearly 3.5% from the mentioned level.
🏦 Company Overview:
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Limited is one of the oldest and leading old private sector banks in India. The bank offers a wide range of banking products and services to retail, MSME, agricultural, and corporate customers.
Retail Products: Home loans, personal loans, auto loans, educational loans, business loans, and security-backed loans.
MSME Portfolio: Loans for manufacturing, traders, and service sector enterprises.
Agricultural Loans: Offered to individual farmers, farmer groups, agri-businesses, and agri-corporates.
📊 Technical View:
High Reached: ₹517 (▲3.5%)
Resistance: ₹510 – price tested and faced mild rejection here.
Supports: ₹466 / ₹440
💡 View: The stock showed strong momentum from the support zone and approached its major 1-year resistance area near ₹510–₹515. A sustained close above ₹515 can confirm a breakout and open the next upside targets of ₹535 / ₹600.
📈 For educational purpose only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.
UPL Limited – Weekly Chart Analysis
📊 UPL Limited – Weekly Chart Analysis
Company Overview:
UPL Limited is a global leader in sustainable agricultural solutions, ranked among the top five agricultural solutions companies worldwide. The company operates across multiple countries, offering an integrated portfolio of patented and post-patent agricultural solutions for both arable and specialty crops — including biologicals, crop protection, seed treatment, and post-harvest solutions.
UPL is principally engaged in:
Production and sale of agrochemicals, field crops, and vegetable seeds
Non-agro business of industrial chemicals, chemical intermediates, and speciality chemicals
With market access across the world’s food basket, UPL is focused on driving growth and innovation throughout the entire agricultural value chain — from growers to distributors and partners. 🌱
📈 Technical View (1-Week Chart):
A trendline formation is observed on the weekly timeframe, indicating a potential breakout setup.
Resistance: ₹830 – strong resistance zone. A breakout above this level can trigger the next target near ₹930.
Support: ₹643 – strong support base.
This formation suggests the move could take time to play out, as it’s developing over the weekly chart.
📊 Key Financial Snapshot:
UPL’s current market price is around ₹724.15 with a P/E ratio of 11.65. The company holds a market capitalization of ₹61,068.53 crore and offers a dividend yield of 0.83%.
In the latest quarter, net profit stood at ₹612 crore, reflecting a 125.74% increase compared to the previous quarter. Quarterly sales were ₹12,019 crore, showing an 8.38% rise. The company’s Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) is 7.66%, indicating stable operational efficiency.
Disclaimer: For educational purposes only, not investment advice
DMART LONGDMART (Avenue Supermarts) has reached a strong trend support level. Additionally, in the daily timeframe, the current candle closed at the previous day's candle level.
Therefore, we can go long in DMART for a swing trade. Fundamentally, the quarterly results are already out, so there is no immediate issue regarding upcoming events.
Go long on DMART, but make sure to manage your trade quantity, risk, and reward based on your risk appetite. This is for educational purposes only and does not guarantee returns.
Real value of Market # Entry #Exit #Trail # StoplossThe phrase "Market # Entry #Exit #Trail # Stoploss" refers to the core parameters of a structured trading plan. The "real value" does not imply a single numerical figure, but rather the monetary gain or loss realized from a trade based on how these elements are defined and executed, combined with the discipline to follow them consistently.
Market: The specific financial instrument or market being traded (e.g., a particular stock, currency pair, or commodity).
Entry: The predefined price level or condition at which a trader opens a position. A good entry can offer a favorable risk-to-reward ratio from the start.
Exit: The predefined strategy or points at which a trader closes a position, either to take a profit or to limit a loss. Exits are crucial as they determine the final profit or loss.
Trail: Refers to a trailing stop-loss order, a dynamic risk management tool that automatically adjusts the stop-loss level as the market price moves in the trader's favor. This locks in profits while allowing the trade to continue if the price keeps moving favorably.
Stoploss (SL): A pre-determined price level or percentage below (for a long position) or above (for a short position) the entry price where the position is automatically closed to prevent further losses if the market moves against the trader.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank – 1D Chart | Strong Resistance Zone🟢 Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB) – 1D Chart | Strong Resistance Zone Ahead
📊 Chart Setup:
TMB is testing its major 1-year resistance zone around ₹510, a key level that has capped price movements for months. A strong daily close above ₹510 could trigger momentum towards higher targets.
🔹 Resistance: ₹510 (Major 1-year resistance)
🔹 Targets on Breakout: ₹535 / ₹600
🔹 Supports: ₹466 / ₹440
🔹 View: Price consolidating near breakout zone. Sustained close above ₹510 can signal trend continuation.
🏦 Fundamental Update – Q2 FY26 Results Highlights:
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank delivered steady performance with profit growth and improved asset quality.
• Net Profit: ₹318 Cr ↑ (▲4.95% YoY)
• Total Business: ↑11.40%
• Deposits: ₹55,421 Cr ↑12.32%
• Advances: ↑10.5%
• Net Interest Income: ₹597 Cr ↑0.17%
• Gross NPA: ↓ to 1.01%
• Net NPA: ↓ to 0.26%
• Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): Strong at 30.96%
➡️ Stable performance, improving asset quality, and strong capital base add confidence to the technical setup.
📈 For educational purpose only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.
TechnoFunda Analysis: ASK Automotive Ltd(ASKAUTOLTD)In the ever-evolving automotive landscape, ASK Automotive Ltd stands out as a powerful blend of technical resilience and fundamental strength. With strong operational performance, expanding margins, and rising institutional confidence, the company has emerged as one of India’s leading auto component players specializing in braking systems, aluminum precision parts, and EV-compatible components.
Let’s decode ASK Automotive from both Technical and Fundamental perspectives to assess its investment potential for long-term investors and swing traders alike.
**************Technical Analysis*******************
ASK Automotive is currently in a buy zone, with a favorable risk-reward setup supported by higher timeframe structure. Traders can accumulate near supports with a stop loss below ₹470 for targets up to ₹540–560.
For investors, the current price offers a good entry point for long-term compounding given the synergy between chart strength and business fundamentals.
Trend: Uptrend remains intact across all major timeframes.
Momentum Indicators: RSI is recovering from the 40–45 zone, hinting at renewed bullish momentum.
Volume Action: Rising volume near the 200 EMA suggests smart money accumulation.
Short-Term View: A decisive close above ₹500 could lead to a near-term rally towards ₹540–560.
Medium-Term View: Sustained trading above ₹560 may open the path toward ₹600+ in the coming months.
**************Fundamental Analysis***************
1. Company Overview
Incorporated in 1988, ASK Automotive Ltd is one of India’s largest manufacturers of Advanced Braking Systems, supplying critical friction and safety components to leading two-wheeler and four-wheeler OEMs such as Hero MotoCorp, Honda, Suzuki, TVS, Bajaj, and Royal Enfield.
The company has diversified into lightweight aluminum precision solutions and EV-compatible products, making it a forward-looking player in India’s auto ancillary space.
2. Industry Analysis
India’s auto component industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10–12% over the next 5 years, driven by:
Increasing domestic vehicle production
Strong aftermarket demand
Rapid adoption of EVs and hybrid vehicles
Export opportunities due to global supply chain realignments
Within this context, ASK Automotive’s leadership in braking and aluminum lightweighting places it at the core of this structural growth story. With its 50% market share in 2W braking systems, it stands to benefit significantly from the 2W and EV upcycle.
3. Economic Conditions
The broader Indian economy provides a supportive backdrop:
GDP growth above 7% ensuring stable demand
Falling input inflation, aiding margin expansion
Government PLI schemes promoting domestic manufacturing
EV policy tailwinds, increasing OEM collaboration opportunities
Thus, macroeconomic conditions currently favor sustained growth in the auto ancillary sector.
4. Qualitative Analysis
Strengths:
Market leader with 50% share in the 2W braking system segment
Diversified product portfolio: braking, aluminum, safety cables, and EV components
Strong OEM relationships ensuring steady order flow
17 manufacturing facilities across India + 1 JV
Strategic partnerships with AISIN (Japan), LIOHO (Taiwan), and FRAS-LE (Brazil)
Focused R&D investments in EV and lightweight solutions
Weaknesses / Risks:
Heavy dependence on the two-wheeler segment (76% of OEM revenue)
High P/E valuation limits near-term upside
Raw material cost volatility could impact margins
Export contribution (5%) remains relatively small
5. Quantitative Analysis
Compounded Growth Ratios:
Sales CAGR (3Y): 21%
Profit CAGR (3Y): 44%
ROE (Last Year): 27%
Stock Price CAGR (1Y): 17%
ASK Automotive’s growth trajectory reflects consistent expansion in both topline and bottom-line metrics, alongside superior capital efficiency.
6. Past, Present & Future Growth Outlook
Past (FY19–FY21):
The company faced headwinds due to an industry slowdown and pandemic impact. Sales fell marginally but profitability remained intact, proving operational resilience.
Present (FY22–FY25):
Strong recovery phase driven by OEM revival, export traction, and margin expansion. FY25 saw record revenue of ₹3,630 Cr with 12% OPM and 27% ROE — its best performance yet.
Future (FY26–FY28):
ASK Automotive’s focus on EV-compatible lightweighting, thermal management systems, and global JVs positions it for 15–18% CAGR growth.
The upcoming Bengaluru plant (₹200 Cr capex) and 9.9 MW solar facility are expected to boost both capacity and sustainability credentials.
ASK Automotive represents a rare blend of technical strength, financial soundness, and industry leadership. With a clear growth trajectory, expanding institutional interest, and consistent operational excellence, it holds the potential to become one of India’s top-performing auto ancillary stocks in the coming decade.
XAUUSD – Gold Trading Plan: Fresh Record Highs & Fibo Zone React📊 Market Context
Gold regained strong bullish momentum on Monday, surging to a new record high above 3,720 USD/oz. The Fed’s dovish outlook, signaling the possibility of two additional rate cuts this year, continues to support non-yielding assets like gold. At the same time, geopolitical risks remain a tailwind for safe-haven demand.
🔢 Technical Analysis (H2)
Immediate Resistance / SELL Zones:
3,818.769 – Key reaction zone where sellers may defend aggressively.
3,754.890 – Secondary SELL zone reaction area for short-term pullbacks.
Mid-Level Support / BUY Zone:
3,694.521 – First key area to watch for dips and potential buy reactions.
3,660.130 – Stronger support level if price pulls back deeper.
Major BUY Zone Reaction:
3,583.663 – Critical confluence of structure and Fibonacci support, a potential bounce zone if a major correction unfolds.
📈 Suggested Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ Bullish Continuation Setup
BUY: Look for pullbacks to 3,694–3,660 with bullish candlestick confirmation.
Targets: 3,754 → 3,818, leave partial position open if momentum breaks higher.
Stop Loss: Below 3,645 for safer positioning.
2️⃣ Countertrend SELL Setup
SELL: Enter short at 3,754–3,818 zones only with strong rejection signals.
Targets: 3,694 → 3,660, trail stops aggressively to lock profits.
3️⃣ Deep Correction Opportunity
BUY: If price flushes to 3,583–3,585, consider scaling into longs.
Targets: 3,660 → 3,754, aligning with the broader uptrend.
⚠ Key Trading Notes
Expect increased volatility with Fed guidance and ongoing geopolitical risks.
Use smaller position sizes near resistance zones and employ stop-loss discipline.
Avoid mid-range entries; focus on well-defined zones for optimal risk-to-reward setups.
💬 Community Discussion
📊 Will gold sustain its rally toward 3,818 or see a deep pullback before another leg higher? Share your charts and insights below so we can compare strategies!
SEBI Expedites IPO Approvals: A Deep Dive into India’s Capital SEBI Expedites IPO Approvals: A Deep Dive into India’s Capital Market Shift
1. Introduction
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has recently undertaken a significant step—fast-tracking Initial Public Offering (IPO) approvals. Traditionally, IPO approval in India has been a lengthy process, often stretching to six months. But SEBI’s new measures aim to cut this time nearly in half, potentially bringing it down to three months or less.
This shift comes at a time when India’s equity markets are booming, with record levels of fundraising expected in 2025. After raising around $20.5 billion through IPOs in 2024, analysts predict that 2025 could surpass this figure. According to reports, $8.2 billion has already been raised so far in 2025, with an additional $13 billion in IPOs already approved and nearly ₹18.7 billion pending approval.
2. Why SEBI is Expediting IPO Approvals
Several factors are driving SEBI to accelerate the IPO pipeline:
Surging Investor Appetite
Indian retail participation in stock markets has seen an explosion in recent years.
Over 11 crore Demat accounts are active as of 2025, compared to just 3.6 crore in 2019.
More retail investors mean more demand for IPOs, making faster approvals essential.
Global Capital Flows
India is seen as one of the fastest-growing large economies.
With global investors diversifying away from China, India is attracting billions in Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs).
A streamlined IPO process will help India capture this liquidity flow before it moves elsewhere.
Boosting Startup Ecosystem
Unicorns like PhysicsWallah, Urban Company, and WeWork India are preparing for listings.
Startups require quicker capital-raising routes to compete globally.
Regulatory Efficiency and AI Adoption
SEBI is now deploying AI-powered document screening tools to check IPO filings.
This reduces human delays and allows faster compliance checks.
Collaboration with merchant bankers and exchanges has also been strengthened.
Record Fundraising Target
SEBI expects India to break the $20B mark again in 2025, possibly setting an all-time record.
Expedited approvals are central to making this happen.
3. How the New Approval System Works
Traditionally, IPO approvals involved multiple manual steps:
Filing of Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP).
SEBI reviews disclosures, company financials, risk factors, and governance.
Queries are raised with the company, leading to back-and-forth communication.
Final approval takes 4–6 months.
Now under the fast-track mechanism:
AI Pre-Screening: Automated checks scan filings for missing data, compliance issues, and inconsistencies.
Concurrent Review: Instead of sequential reviews, SEBI, merchant bankers, and exchanges review documents simultaneously.
Time-Bound Queries: Companies are given strict deadlines to respond to SEBI’s queries.
Standardization: Risk disclosure formats and governance checks are now standardized across sectors.
This is expected to cut approval timelines by 40–50%.
4. IPO Pipeline for 2025
Some big-ticket IPOs in the pipeline include:
PhysicsWallah (₹3,820 crore) – Edtech unicorn expanding into AI-driven education.
Urban Company – Already raised ₹854 crore from anchor investors; IPO opening soon.
LG Electronics India – Large consumer electronics brand targeting India’s growing tech-savvy population.
WeWork India – Despite global challenges, the Indian arm remains profitable and expansion-focused.
Credila Financial Services – Education loan subsidiary of HDFC, a high-demand financial segment.
The SME IPO market is equally hot with listings like Goel Construction debuting at a 15% premium and Prozeal Green Energy getting SEBI approval.
5. Benefits of Faster IPO Approvals
For Companies
Quicker access to capital for expansion.
Ability to capitalize on favorable market sentiment without delays.
Reduced costs of prolonged regulatory processes.
For Investors
More frequent and diverse IPO opportunities.
Increased transparency due to standardized disclosures.
Higher liquidity as more firms enter the public market.
For Indian Markets
Strengthened image of India as an investment hub.
Alignment with global best practices (US SEC and Hong Kong’s IPO process are faster).
Improved global competitiveness for Indian startups.
6. Risks and Challenges
Speed vs. Quality
Faster approvals must not compromise on due diligence.
Weak companies slipping through could hurt investor trust.
Market Saturation
Too many IPOs in a short span could lead to oversupply, reducing listing gains.
Retail Investor Overexposure
Retail investors may flock to IPOs without understanding fundamentals, increasing risk of losses.
Global Volatility
Geopolitical tensions, US interest rate decisions, or oil price shocks can derail IPO plans.
7. Global Context
Globally, IPO markets have been mixed:
US Markets: Tech IPOs are recovering but still face valuation pressure.
China: Tighter regulations have slowed down IPO fundraising.
Middle East: Saudi Arabia and UAE continue to see large IPOs in energy and infrastructure.
In this scenario, India is positioning itself as a global IPO leader, especially in the tech and services sector.
8. Investor Strategy for 2025 IPOs
For investors, the IPO rush creates both opportunities and challenges. Some strategies include:
Focus on Fundamentals
Look for companies with strong financials, governance, and growth potential.
Avoid IPOs driven purely by hype.
Anchor Investor Signals
Strong anchor participation (like Urban Company’s ₹854 Cr funding) signals institutional confidence.
Sector Plays
Edtech, Renewable Energy, Fintech, and Consumer Services are hot sectors.
Traditional sectors like construction and manufacturing are also showing resilience.
Listing Gains vs. Long-Term Holding
Some IPOs (like Goel Construction SME) deliver quick listing pops.
Larger IPOs (like PhysicsWallah, Urban Company) may be better for long-term growth.
9. Case Study: Urban Company IPO
Urban Company is a prime example of SEBI’s faster approval ecosystem.
Filed DRHP earlier in 2025.
Received SEBI approval within 12 weeks.
Raised ₹854 crore from anchors before IPO launch.
Price band set at the higher end, reflecting strong demand.
Market analysts project strong long-term growth given India’s rising demand for home services.
This showcases how SEBI’s new process benefits both issuers and investors.
10. Conclusion
SEBI’s decision to expedite IPO approvals is a game-changer for India’s financial markets. By cutting approval times, using AI-driven compliance, and standardizing processes, SEBI is creating a faster, more transparent, and investor-friendly IPO environment.
With major companies like PhysicsWallah, Urban Company, Neilsoft, and Prozeal entering the market, and regulatory support from SEBI, 2025 is poised to be a record-breaking year for IPO fundraising in India.
However, investors must balance enthusiasm with caution—choosing fundamentally strong IPOs, monitoring global market conditions, and avoiding blind bets driven by hype.
In essence, SEBI’s move reflects India’s ambition to emerge as a global capital-raising hub, connecting domestic growth stories with global capital at unprecedented speed and scale.
NIFTY50 index levelsKey Levels & Swing Trade Outlook (1-Hour Timeframe)
Resistance & Support (Broader Technical View)
Key Resistance Zones:
24,900–25,000 range (daily level)—a critical breakout area
Slightly higher potential if breakout occurs, toward 25,200+
Immediate Support Zones:
24,750–24,800 level
Broader range support at 24,620–24,700
More defensive base near 24,400 (longer-term)
Intraday Pivot Levels (Based on latest derived pivots)
From Moneycontrol, for the current trading session:
Classic Pivot R1: 24,855 | R2: 24,937 | R3: 24,989
Classic Pivot S1: 24,721 | S2: 24,669 | S3: 24,587
1-Hour Swing Trading Perspective
Although explicit 1-hour pivot data is not readily available, we can infer swing strategies using the broader technical context and typical indicators:
1-Hour Swing Fundamentals:
Use short-term moving averages (e.g., 20/50 EMA) to gauge trend direction. The index is trading above these on shorter timeframes, suggesting intraday bullish bias
Common indicators: RSI, Bollinger Bands, MACD, etc.
EPACK - Rounding BottomEPACK Durable Limited is an Original Design Manufacturer (ODM) of room air conditioners (RAC).
Fundamentals:
Market Cap: ₹ 3,747 Cr.
Promoter holding: 48.0 %
FII holding: 0.41 %
DII holding: 5.55 %
Public holding: 46.0 %
Debt: ₹ 416 Cr.
Debt 3Years back: ₹ 435 Cr.
Technical
EPACK is making a rounding bottom pattern and very long consolidation. Above 420, we can see all targets marked on the chart. Good to buy and hold for the long time.
GOLD SURGES AFTER CPI – TARGETING 337x BEFORE SELL-OFF? MMFLOW TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
📌 Market Overview
Following the CPI release, gold reacted with strong buying momentum (FOMO BUY), pushing prices swiftly from the 333x area up to 335x.
The main driver here is the BUY side taking advantage of remaining liquidity gaps above, aiming to break through the critical 3358 resistance – the first major barrier before reaching 337x, a key equilibrium zone that previously acted as a strong price-holding area for SELL orders.
Current structure indicates:
Short-term trend: Bullish, but approaching key distribution levels.
Liquidity Hunt: A decisive break above 3358 with strong volume could trigger a rapid move towards 337x, activating SELL volume from pending limit orders.
Macro context: No major news events today, with expected daily range ~35–40 points, increasing the chance of range-bound traps before a breakout.
🧐 Technical Outlook – MMFLOW View
Market Structure: Gold has formed a Higher Low around 333x and is now testing short-term resistance.
Key Levels & Liquidity Zones:
Liquidity BUY ZONE at 3338–3336 has reacted well, confirming BUYers are still defending this zone.
Supply Zone / CP Zone at 3375–3377 aligns with an H1 Order Block, holding a high concentration of pending SELL orders.
Volume Flow: Increasing volume as price approaches resistance suggests a potential “last push” before a reversal.
🎯 MMFLOW Trading Plan
🔹 BUY SCALP – Following the main trend
Entry: 3338 – 3336
SL: 3332
TP: 3342 – 3346 – 3350 – 3355 – 3360 – 3370 – 3380
🔹 SELL SCALP – At the distribution zone
Entry: 3375 – 3377
SL: 3382
TP: 3370 – 3365 – 3360 – 3355 – 3350 – 3340
📊 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 3358 – 3365 – 3376
Support: 3342 – 3337 – 3330 – 3310
💡 MMFLOW Insight: With the current setup, the optimal strategy is to wait for a BUY opportunity near early support (334x) to ride the short-term bullish momentum, then watch for price reaction at 337x to catch potential SELL entries once top-side liquidity is swept.
Swiggy Ltd. Reserch ReportBuy/Sell/Hold Recommendation:
Given Swiggy’s strong revenue growth but continued losses and negative cash flows, the stock currently represents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. Unless you have a high risk appetite and a long-term horizon, a "Hold" stance is appropriate—wait for visible margin improvement and positive cash flows before considering aggressive buying. For conservative investors, it’s best to avoid new buys until profitability and sustainable cash generation are in sight. Only enter or add if Swiggy shows concrete signs of turning profitable and scaling successfully.
HOld (Overvalued)
Swiggy Investment Report: Independent Strategic & Financial Outlook
Introduction
Swiggy, a leading player in India’s food delivery and quick commerce industry, continues to pursue aggressive growth and operational dominance, shaping its own strategic path amid sector challenges.
Financial Metrics
In FY25, Swiggy posted revenue of ₹15,227Cr but remained loss-making with a net deficit of ₹3,117Cr and negative EBITDA margins, reflecting heavy investment in technology, logistics, and expansion—especially in its Instamart quick commerce division. Capital expenditures and higher working capital are keeping free cash flows negative (-₹2,693Cr in FY25), underscoring the company’s high-growth, cash-consuming phase.
Strategic Progress & DCF Valuation
Swiggy’s management aims for positive cash flows and margin turnaround, with plans to steadily improve profitability by scaling operations and increasing efficiency. A detailed DCF analysis, based on realistic growth and margin improvement assumptions (cost of equity 11.79%, terminal growth 10%), implies an intrinsic value of around ₹143 per share—indicating the current market cap still prices in optimism about future execution.
Key Takeaways
Swiggy operates in a capital-intensive, competitive market, facing margin pressure but also strong revenue momentum.
Ongoing board and policy reforms reflect the company’s drive for operational maturity.
Long-term success hinges on rapid margin improvement, successful turnaround of Instamart, and conversion of scale into sustainable profits.
Conclusion
Swiggy’s independent outlook shows promise with its robust platform and growth potential, but significant risks remain until losses are narrowed and cash flows turn consistently positive. For investors, Swiggy presents a high-risk, high-reward bet—success will be determined by its pace of execution and ability to transition from investment-driven growth to profitable leadership in India’s booming delivery market.
HCL Technologies Ltd.HCL Tech is a leading global IT services company, which is ranked amongst the top five Indian IT services companies in terms of revenues. Since its inception into the global landscape after its IPO in 1999, HCL Tech has focused on transformational outsourcing, and offers an integrated portfolio of services including software-led IT solutions, remote infrastructure management, engineering and R&D services and BPO. The company leverages its extensive global offshore infrastructure and network of offices in 46 countries to provide multi-service delivery in key industry verticals.
Market Cap: ₹ 4,04,363 Cr.
Promoter holding: 60.8 %
FII holding: 18.6 %
DII holding: 16.2 %
Public holding: 4.24 %
Debt: ₹ 6,276 Cr.
Debt 3Years back: ₹ 6,343 Cr.
Analysis: Current wave showing some selling pressure. This is weekly chart, so if you see there, 1310-1375 is crucial support zone. where 1300 is strong support. Once this is break then it will be give more fall till 930 where again new strong support will be formed.
930 is the possible reversal level. So, If it is reversed from 930, then targets will be 1180-1467-1590-2012-2685.
So, best opportunity will come in the HCL Tech soon.
Sterlite Technologies Ltd - Near Breakout.Sterlite Technologies Limited was established in July 2001 after the demerger of the telecom division of Sterlite Industries Ltd (SIL). In July 2006, STL acquired the transmission line business of SIL to foray into the power transmission cables business. STL has grown over the years to become the largest Optical Fiber and Optical Fiber Cables manufacturer in the country. The company also has sizeable presence in the overseas markets with an established presence in the global optical fiber market.
The company’s global ex-China Optical Fiber Cables (OFC) market share was 8% in FY24 vs 12% in FY23. It is among the largest and lowest-cost producers of Optical Fibre and OFC in India because of extensive backward integration.
Order Book
As of Q4 FY24, the company's order book stood at Rs. ~10,200 Cr vs Rs. ~9,800 Cr in Q3 FY24.
Telcos: 59%
Citizen Networks: 22%
Enterprises: 19%.
Optical Connectivity portfolio in US
On 29 July 24, the company announce the expansion of its Optical Networking capability with the addition of its Optical Connectivity portfolio in the US market.
Market Cap: ₹ 5,723 Cr.
Promoter holding: 44.4 %
FII holding: 6.74 %
DII holding: 11.3 %
Public holding: 37.5 %
Debt: ₹ 1,926 Cr.
Debt 3 Years back: ₹ 3,475 Cr.
Note: Debt is decreasing
Vimta LabsVimta Labs
VLL is is in the business of contract research and testing in the fields of biologics, small molecules, agro -chemicals, food & beverages, electronics, clinical diagnostics, medical devices, home and personal care products, and environment testing
On July 12th 2024, company approved the scheme of amalgamation of its Wholly Owned Subsidiary company viz. Emtac Laboratories Pvt. Ltd. with the Holding Company
Market Cap: ₹ 2,603 Cr.
Promoter holding: 36.7 %
FII holding: 3.49 %
DII holding: 1.42 %
Public holding: 58.4 %
Debt: ₹ 8.52 Cr.
Debt 3Years back: ₹ 19.0 Cr.
Looks good to buy and hold for the given Targets.
Option TradingInvesting Approach by Institutions
✅ Investment Philosophy:
Long-term horizon
Focus on fundamentals (P/E, ROE, growth)
Sector rotation and macro trends
✅ Allocation Strategies:
Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA)
Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA)
Smart Beta and Factor Investing
Trading Strategies by Institutions
🔹 High-Frequency Trading (HFT)
Executes thousands of trades in milliseconds
Relies on arbitrage, price inefficiencies
🔹 Statistical Arbitrage
Mean-reversion strategies using historical patterns
🔹 Swing & Trend Trading
Use technical indicators like MACD, Moving Averages, RSI
Option Trading Part-1 What Is Institutional Option Trading?
Institutional Option Trading involves using derivatives (Options) for:
Hedging big equity portfolios
Speculating on volatility or price movement
Arbitrage opportunities
🔹 Key Techniques:
Volatility Arbitrage
Delta-Neutral Hedging
Covered Calls
Protective Puts
Iron Condors & Spreads
How Institutions Use Options Differently
✅ Retail Focus:
Naked calls/puts
Directional trades
Limited capital
✅ Institutional Focus:
Portfolio insurance
Complex multi-leg strategies
Implied Volatility arbitrage
Event-based hedging (like earnings or Fed news)
Option TradingInstitutional Trading – The Backbone of Markets
✅ Who Are Institutional Traders?
They are big market participants such as:
Pension Funds
Insurance Companies
Hedge Funds
Mutual Funds
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)
✅ Why Are They Important?
Provide liquidity in markets
Trade with large volumes
Influence market trends
Institution Option Trading What Is Trading?
Trading refers to buying and selling financial instruments (stocks, options, futures) in financial markets for profit. It can be:
Retail Trading – Done by individual investors.
Institutional Trading – Conducted by large organizations like banks, mutual funds, hedge funds.
What Is Investing?
Investing involves allocating capital with the expectation of long-term wealth generation. It focuses on:
Value appreciation
Dividends or returns over time
Longer holding periods
TRADER PSYCHOLOGY - Overtrading The Silent Killer of ConsistencyTRADER PSYCHOLOGY | EPISODE 1: Overtrading – The Silent Killer of Consistency
In the dynamic world of forex trading, success doesn't come from doing more — it comes from doing right. Yet many traders, especially full-time traders in India, unknowingly fall into a common psychological trap that slowly erodes both their capital and confidence: Overtrading.
Let’s break it down — what overtrading is, why it happens, and most importantly, how to stop it before it burns through your progress.
🧠 What Is Overtrading in Forex?
Overtrading refers to excessive trading – opening too many positions without clear signals or justification based on your strategy. In most cases, it’s driven by emotion, not logic.
It usually shows up in two forms:
Trading out of boredom or the urge to “do something”
Trying to recover from previous losses (a.k.a. revenge trading)
Over time, this behavior becomes a habit — and like most bad habits in trading, it’s expensive.
⚠️ Signs You Might Be Overtrading
If you answer "yes" to any of these, it’s time to check your discipline:
Do you feel uncomfortable when you’re not in a trade?
Do you enter trades even when your system says “no trade”?
Do you keep switching charts hoping to “find a setup”?
After a losing trade, do you jump right back in to recover?
Have you lost more to fees/spread than actual price movement?
🧩 Why Indian Traders Often Fall Into Overtrading
🔹 The Action Bias
Traders often feel they must "do something" to be productive. In reality, sitting out is a strategy — especially when markets are flat or unclear.
🔹 Pressure to Perform Daily
Many traders in India try to generate consistent income from trading — and assume they must win every day. That pressure leads to forcing trades just to “hit targets.”
🔹 Overconfidence After a Winning Streak
Success leads to confidence — but too much confidence without structure leads to impulsive trading. One good day shouldn’t convince you that you’ve mastered the market.
🔥 Consequences of Overtrading
Overtrading doesn’t just hurt your account — it breaks your mindset.
Capital Depletion: Small losses + transaction costs = big drawdown over time
Mental Burnout: You feel drained, frustrated, and reactive
Lack of System Trust: You abandon good strategies because you never followed them properly
Emotional Instability: You start making decisions based on fear or revenge, not analysis
✅ How to Control Overtrading – Practical Steps
1. Limit the Number of Trades Per Day
Set a clear rule — e.g., “Maximum 3 trades per day.” This forces you to choose the best setups and ignore mediocre ones.
2. Keep a Simple Trading Journal
Write down:
Why you took the trade
Whether it matched your plan
Your emotional state
Reviewing this weekly will reveal patterns you never noticed in real time.
3. Block Out Non-Active Trading Hours
For Indian traders, this might mean avoiding low-volume periods like mid-Asia session. Focus on London or US overlap hours — when liquidity and volatility are high.
4. Understand: Not Trading Is Still Trading
Being flat (no position) is a strategic decision. Markets reward patience, not impatience.
🎯 Final Thoughts
Overtrading is not a technical issue — it’s a mindset issue.
When you feel the urge to “do something,” remind yourself: the best traders don’t trade all the time. They wait, they observe, and they only act when everything aligns.
"The market doesn’t pay you for activity — it pays you for accuracy."
If you want to grow consistently, you must master the art of waiting, filtering, and executing with purpose.
📌 Next in the Series:
TRADER PSYCHOLOGY | EPISODE 2: FOMO – How Fear of Missing Out Destroys Good Decisions
Follow this page to get notified when it drops!
Institutional Master classOption Trading Basics
Call vs Put Options Detailed
In-the-Money (ITM), At-the-Money (ATM), Out-of-the-Money (OTM)
Options Greeks: Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega, Rho – controlling price sensitivity.
Understanding Option Premium Breakup
Option Strategies
Single-Leg Strategies: Buying Calls, Buying Puts
Multi-Leg Strategies:
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Iron Condor
Straddle and Strangle
Hedging Techniques: How institutions and traders use options to hedge positions.
Option Chain Analysis
Reading Option Chain Data
Open Interest (OI) & Change in OI
IV (Implied Volatility) Impact
PCR (Put-Call Ratio) Analysis for Market Sentiment






















