GOLD ANALYSIS – NEW ATH AFTER TRADE TARIFF SHOCK!📊 GOLD ANALYSIS – NEW ATH AFTER TRADE TARIFF SHOCK!
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has officially announced a comprehensive global tariff policy, targeting multiple countries and regions. This unexpected move triggered strong risk-off sentiment, resulting in:
📉 Massive asset sell-offs
💵 A sharp decline in USD strength
🪙 And another all-time high (ATH) for GOLD
Gold broke out aggressively from a long-standing sideways triangle pattern, confirming strong bullish momentum. The counter-tariff reactions from other countries were far more aggressive than forecast, further fueling gold’s safe-haven appeal.
🔍 Technical Perspective
Yesterday, we successfully identified and traded within the triangle pattern by connecting recent highs and lows. The breakout came exactly as expected, especially nearing the end of the consolidation range — a classic price behavior traders should always watch for!
Now that the breakout has occurred, our focus shifts to BUYING on a retest of the breakout zone. Early entries during the Asian and European sessions are preferred, while we’ll reassess during the U.S. session due to upcoming economic data.
🔔 Note: With major events like Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) coming soon, stay alert for volatility and unexpected moves.
📌 Key Resistance Levels:
3167 (ATH) - 3175 - 3185 - 3198 - 3206 (psychological/Fibonacci extensions – wait for candle confirmation)
📌 Key Support Levels:
3140 - 3132 - 3120
🎯 Trade Setups
BUY ZONE: 3132 – 3130
Stop Loss: 3126
Take Profits: 3136 – 3140 – 3144 – 3148 – 3152 – 3156 – 3160
SELL ZONE: 3185 – 3187
Stop Loss: 3191
Take Profits: 3180 – 3176 – 3172 – 3168 – 3160
⚠️ Final Notes:
The uptrend is clearly dominant — no need to FOMO sell at current highs. Be patient, wait for the market to reach key resistance zones (psychological or Fibonacci-based), then reassess.
📌 Avoid overtrading or aggressive selling — the tariff announcement is a global macro driver with deep market impact.
We’ll wait for Friday’s NFP to reassess broader sentiment.
As always: Respect your TP/SL levels to protect your capital.
Stay safe & trade smart! 💼📈
Fundamental-analysis
GOLD MARKET – Early Asian Spike Meets Resistance Ahead of ADP🟡 GOLD MARKET UPDATE – Early Asian Spike Meets Resistance Ahead of ADP
Gold saw a strong early move during the Asian session, rallying back into the 313x zone — largely supported by consistent buying flow from Asian and Middle Eastern investors, as seen in the bullish momentum early in recent Asian sessions.
However, price quickly reacted to the key resistance zone at 3130–3135, which was highlighted in yesterday’s plan. With selling pressure reappearing at this level, my view remains to look for sell setups in both the Asian and London sessions if price retraces upward again.
📉 Technical Structure:
Gold is approaching the tip of a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting an imminent breakout.
→ As always: wait for the breakout, then trade the retest in the breakout direction.
📰 Fundamental Watch:
All eyes will be on tonight’s ADP Non-Farm Employment data from the U.S.
Expectations are fairly optimistic — if the data comes in near or better than forecast, this could strengthen the USD and push gold lower, aligning with my bearish view toward the 308x–307x target zone.
🧭 Key Levels to Watch:
🔺 Resistance: 3128 – 3135 – 3142 – 3148
🔻 Support: 3110 – 3100 – 3080 – 3070
🎯 Trade Setup:
🟢 BUY ZONE: 3102 – 3100
SL: 3096
TP: 3106 – 3110 – 3114 – 3118 – 3122 – 3126 – 3130
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3148 – 3150
SL: 3154
TP: 3144 – 3140 – 3136 – 3132 – 3128 – 3124 – 3120
📌 Caution: Watch out for increased volatility during the US session with ADP release.
In Asia and Europe, stick to the technical zones above and always manage your TP/SL properly to protect your capital.
Good luck, stay sharp.
— AD | Money Market Flow
Option and Database tradingTo study an option chain, focus on the current market price, displayed in the centre. Analyse the built-up data to understand market direction based on recent changes in open interest and price. ITM call options are typically highlighted in yellow, making it easier to distinguish them from other options.
The put-call ratio measures trading volume using put options versus call options. Instead of the absolute value of the put-call ratio, the changes in its value indicate a change in overall market sentiment.
Gold Kicks Off April with a New ATH – Bulls Remain in Control Gold continued its explosive rally during the early Asian session today, printing yet another All-Time High (ATH) after retesting the 3,12x zone overnight.
The U.S. stock market reversed sharply higher in the New York session, and if this bullish momentum continues, gold could see a short-term pullback near current resistance before heading higher again.
However, if equities fail to hold and roll over, gold may push further into uncharted territory, eyeing extended targets around 315x – 317x.
📰 Macro Focus:
Investors seem to have interpreted Trump’s latest trade stance as more "measured" than previously feared.
In his latest comments, he signaled that “tariffs may play a smaller role in the overall economic strategy.”
This has calmed markets slightly but hasn’t slowed down the gold rush.
📈 Price Action & Outlook:
With current momentum and sentiment, gold still looks likely to print fresh ATHs this week.
The next major upside target sits around 316x – 318x, where we may finally see a significant pullback as FOMO cools down.
For now, watch the 312x – 311x zones for potential short setups at local resistance — as marked in AD’s key levels.
🧭 Key Technical Levels:
🔻 Support: 3133 – 3122 – 3111 – 3100
🔺 Resistance: 3158 – 3166 – 3172 – 3180
🎯 Trade Zones:
🟢 BUY ZONE: 3122 – 3120
SL: 3116
TP: 3126 – 3130 – 3134 – 3138 – 3142 – 3146 – 3150
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3170 – 3172
SL: 3176
TP: 3166 – 3162 – 3158 – 3152 – 3148 – 3144 – 3140
📊 What to Watch Today:
Investors will be closely watching ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings during the US session — expect volatility spikes.
As gold hovers near new ATHs, stay disciplined:
✅ Respect SL/TP
✅ Manage risk according to your account size
✅ Don’t get caught up in emotional trades
Wishing you a powerful and profitable start to the new month. Let’s flow smart.
— AD | Money Market Flow
Advanced Technical Analysis #DivergenceDivergence is when the price of an asset is moving in the opposite direction of a technical indicator, such as an oscillator, or is moving contrary to other data. Divergence warns that the current price trend may be weakening, and in some cases may lead to the price changing direction.
RSI and RSI divergenceThe RSI tool measures how fast and strong price movements are, ranging between 0 and 100. Typically, when the RSI is below 30, the asset is considered oversold; when it's above 70, it's seen as overbought. RSI divergence happens when the price and the RSI move in opposite directions
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GOLD SURGE CONTINUES – FEAR, WAR & END-OF-MONTH VOLATILITYGold opened this week with a strong upside gap, once again reminding us of how unpredictable Mondays can be following highly volatile weekends.
As always, when the market gaps significantly after the weekend, it's best to wait for price to absorb the remaining volume before locking into new setups.
As mentioned in previous outlooks, the current BUY pressure is still high, driven by a global wave of FOMO and fear, caused by:
Rising geopolitical tensions,
Global economic instability,
And even natural disasters now hitting parts of Asia.
Asian stock markets dropped sharply this morning after weekend developments escalated — with the Russia–Ukraine war showing no signs of de-escalation. In fact, new reports suggest a broader regional impact, further boosting risk-off sentiment.
💡 Safe Haven Flows Are Back in Full Force
Right now, gold is the #1 asset investors are paying attention to.
It's being treated as the ultimate flight-to-safety amid global panic and uncertainty.
And with this momentum, new ATHs may still be ahead.
📅 End-of-Month Candle Close – Expect Whipsaws
Today also marks the final trading day of the month, meaning we could see aggressive stop hunts and liquidity sweeps as large players look to close their monthly books.
➡️ Be extra cautious today — sharp moves up or down may occur due to end-of-month positioning.
Whether BUY or SELL, it’s best to trade tight, scalp smart, and respect your SL/TP.
Key Levels for 01/04:
🔺 Resistance: 3116 – 3132
🔻 Support: 3092 – 3085 – 3076 – 3066
🎯 Trade Plan:
SELL ZONE: 3130 – 3132
SL: 3136
TP: 3125 – 3120 – 3115 – 3110 – 3105 – 3100
BUY ZONE: 3066 – 3064
SL: 3060
TP: 3070 – 3075 – 3080 – 3085 – 3090 – 3095 – 3100
Stay sharp and trade with discipline.
End-of-month volatility is not for the weak hands.
— AD | Money Market Flow
GOLD – Unshaken Through Chaos - 50 new all-time highs🟡 GOLD – Unshaken Through Chaos | A Structural Bull Run Backed by Global Repricing
Gold isn’t just rallying — it’s sending a message.
Over the past 12 months, gold has set over 50 new all-time highs, a breakout sequence unmatched in over a decade. This is now officially the longest bullish streak in 12 years, and the third longest in modern history, only behind the volatile 1979–1980 period — a time when the global economy was grappling with runaway inflation, stagnant growth, and widespread unemployment.
But what makes this current bull cycle unique is not just the price action, but the structural shift behind the move.
📈 The Numbers Speak for Themselves:
YTD 2024 performance: +16%
12-month gain: +39%
Price range: From ~$1,200 to nearly $1,600/oz
3rd consecutive bullish year
These gains are not speculative pumps — they are a response to systemic instability. The macro backdrop is screaming uncertainty:
Sticky, structural inflation
Slowing global economic growth
Real interest rates still hovering around zero or negative
Geopolitical risk escalating in nearly every region of the world
This isn’t a short squeeze. It’s a capital migration.
🏦 The Central Bank Bid: The Silent Giant
What separates this rally from past cycles is who’s buying.
Unlike the 2011 gold run — driven heavily by retail FOMO and speculative ETF flows — today’s surge is institutionally anchored.
The strongest force in the current trend? Central banks.
Led by China, Russia, Turkey, and several BRICS nations, central banks have been accumulating gold at a record pace, shifting reserves away from USD exposure and hedging long-term geopolitical and economic risks. This isn't just diversification — it's a statement of monetary sovereignty.
Their consistent demand is forming a strong floor under price, insulating gold from violent retracements even during short-term corrections.
🔍 The Psychology of this Bull Market
This isn’t the kind of rally that fades on CPI noise.
The capital flow is defensive, not aggressive.
Funds are rotating into gold not to chase yield, but to preserve value. In times when fiat devaluation, sovereign debt instability, and political fragmentation are on the rise — gold doesn’t just shine, it leads.
The market is re-pricing systemic risk.
Investors are no longer reacting to inflation headlines. They are positioning for longer-term fragility in global monetary policy. That’s why even when inflation prints soften temporarily, gold still holds ground.
📌 What Comes Next?
Yes, technically, a pullback is healthy — even expected.
Extended breakouts are often followed by short-term consolidations. But the medium- to long-term structure remains intact.
Gold is not in a bubble. It’s in rotation.
In a world full of uncertainty, inflation volatility, and central bank crossfire — gold remains the most trusted asset for capital protection. And this rally? It’s not the end of something.
It’s just the beginning of a new monetary cycle.
— AD | Money Market Flow
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Gold Rallies Ahead of Critical PCE Report – Is a Reversal ComingAs expected, Gold reached a new all-time high (ATH) following the bullish momentum we anticipated yesterday.
However, this upside move seems to have arrived earlier than projected — potentially a pre-positioning move before a major correction triggered by tonight’s PCE inflation data and profit-taking ahead of the weekend.
With current momentum, Gold could easily target $3100 as global stock markets — from the US to Asia — are sharply declining.
This reflects rising concerns over a global economic slowdown, and highlights the growing demand for safe haven assets like Gold.
📰 Tonight’s PCE data will offer key insights into inflation in the current macro context.
If PCE inflation decreases, Gold is likely to continue its rally.
However, if PCE shows higher inflation, we could see heavy sell pressure enter the market — leading to a sharp drop in XAUUSD.
That said, recent CPI and PPI data suggest that inflation may already be easing, supporting the bullish case — or at least explaining the early price surge.
🟡 Strategy for Today:
Look for early BUY entries during Asia & London sessions at key lower supports.
Avoid SELL positions for now — wait for price to reach major psychological resistance levels like $3100 before considering a short setup.
🧭 Key Levels:
🔻 Support: 3064 – 3055 – 3048 – 3040 – 3032
🔺 Psychological Resistance: 3090 – 3100 – 3106 – 3110
🎯 Trade Zones – 29/03:
BUY ZONE: 3056 – 3054
SL: 3050
TP: 3060 – 3064 – 3068 – 3072 – 3076 – 3080 – ???
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3100 – 3102
SL: 3107
TP: 3096 – 3090 – 3086 – 3082 – 3078 – 3074 – 3070
🧠 Final Reminder:
It’s Friday — and PCE inflation data tonight is crucial.
If you feel unsure or your trading psychology is shaky, stay out and wait for clarity post-news.
As always, respect your SL/TP levels and protect your capital at all costs.
Good luck, homies! Let’s trade smart.
— AD | Money Market Flow
Gold Awaits – A Major Move Is Just Around the CornerGold has shown consistent structure since the start of this week.
Today, there are no major economic events, so price is likely to continue moving sideways within the current range, as previously analyzed in AD’s plan.
📌 Important Events Coming Up:
🔸 Thursday: US Quarterly GDP data
🔸 Friday: PCE Inflation Report (Key inflation indicator)
👉 These are the two most impactful news releases this week, and essentially wrap up Q1/month-end flows.
→ Global traders will be closely watching Thursday & Friday, so stay extra cautious during these two sessions.
🔄 Today’s Market Behavior:
Gold continues to range within the same channel shared earlier this week.
There is no clear breakout or strong directional move yet.
The market is essentially waiting for Thursday & Friday's data — which could act as the catalyst for a stronger bearish correction, in line with AD’s mid-term outlook.
🔍 Current Trading Strategy:
As shared from the beginning of the week, AD continues to trade reactions at key support and resistance zones.
Without a confirmed breakout, the approach remains:
→ Trade the range. React to both ends of the zone.
🧭 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
🔺 Resistance: 3,010 – 3,036 – 3,046 – 3,057
🔻 Support: 3,010 – 3,001 – 2,988
🎯 TRADE ZONES:
BUY ZONE: 2988 – 2986
SL: 2982
TP: 2992 – 2996 – 3000 – 3004 – 3008 – 3015
SELL ZONE: 3045 – 3047
SL: 3051
TP: 3042 – 3038 – 3034 – 3030 – 3026 – 3020
🧠 Final Reminder:
There is no breakout confirmation yet → market is still in accumulation mode.
Be patient, avoid FOMO, and watch price reaction closely at each zone.
➡️ Trade clean levels. Enter only when setups are clear — stay out if not.
Protecting your capital always comes first.
— AD | Money Market Flow
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 4H Chart Analysis: Bullish Breakout Ahead?📈 Ascending Channel:
🔹 The price is moving upward within a parallel trend channel.
🔹 Blue arrows (🔵) indicate resistance points where the price struggled.
🔹 Red circles (🔴) highlight support areas where the price bounced.
🟦 Fair Value Gap (FVG) Zone:
🔸 The blue-shaded area (FVG zone) suggests a possible retracement before a bullish move.
🔸 If the price dips into this zone, it may find liquidity and bounce back up.
📊 Projected Price Movement:
⚡ Expected pullback → into FVG zone (🔽), then a bullish push (🚀) towards $90,686.72 🎯.
🟡 Yellow arrow shows the anticipated price path.
📉 Support & Resistance Levels:
✅ Support: Around $86,000 - $86,500 (FVG zone).
🚀 Target: $90,686.72 (next major resistance).
📌 Exponential Moving Average (DEMA - 9):
🔹 The blue line (DEMA 9) at $87,414.57 is acting as dynamic resistance.
🔹 A break above this could confirm further upside movement.
💡 Conclusion:
🔸 Bullish bias remains strong 📈.
🔸 Watch for a dip into the FVG zone before a potential rally 🚀.
🔸 If Bitcoin holds support, it may reach $90K+ soon 🎯🔥.
Advanced Technical ConceptOn the other hand, hidden divergence occurs when the price makes a lower low, but the RSI indicator makes a higher low, signaling a potential trend continuation. RSI Divergence occurs when the price movement and the RSI indicator move in opposite directions, signaling a potential reversal in the current trend.
Divergence within RSI through price movements is a powerful indication that there will be reversals in the market. There are two types of divergences: bullish divergences and bearish divergences. 1. Bullish divergence
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Advanced Swing Trading Strategy with Pcr Part-1So, an average put-call ratio of 0.7 for equities is considered a good basis for evaluating sentiment. In general: A rising put-call ratio, or a ratio greater than 0.7 or exceeding 1, means that equity traders are buying more puts than calls. It suggests that bearish sentiment is building in the market.
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Advanced Swing Trading Strategy with Pcr Part-2The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) is a popular technical indicator used by investors to assess market sentiment. It is calculated by dividing the volume or open interest of put options by call options over a specific time period. A higher PCR suggests bearish sentiment, while a lower PCR indicates bullish sentiment.
So, an average put-call ratio of 0.7 for equities is considered a good basis for evaluating sentiment. In general: A rising put-call ratio, or a ratio greater than 0.7 or exceeding 1, means that equity traders are buying more puts than calls. It suggests that bearish sentiment is building in the market.
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Trading with Professionals Identifying the trend. This is the first step in technical analysis for traders because trading strategies can either follow the trend or go against the trend. ...
Drawing support and resistance levels. ...
Establishing entry and exit points. ...
Position sizing and risk management.
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Gold Outlook – Breakout or Pullback in the Final Week of March?🧠 Final Week of March: Will Gold Break Out or Pull Back? Complete Market Outlook + Trade Plan for XAUUSD
🌐 1. Fundamental Overview – Macro Factors Driving Gold
Gold experienced a sharp $50+ correction last week after printing new all-time highs. The recent price action was shaped by several key macroeconomic factors:
🔸 The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and delivered a more cautious tone — suggesting no immediate rate cuts, which strengthened the USD and put pressure on gold.
🔸 US Dollar Index (DXY) recovered above the 104 mark, adding bearish momentum for XAUUSD.
🔸 Upcoming US inflation data (PCE this Friday) is the main event of the week — market participants are positioning cautiously ahead of this.
🔸 End-of-quarter fund flows may trigger erratic moves and profit-taking, especially as institutions rebalance portfolios.
Despite this pullback, late-week buying activity suggests that buyers are still defending key zones, and the medium- to long-term bullish structure remains intact.
📈 2. Technical Analysis – Chart Structure & Price Action
✅ Market Context:
Price broke out of the short-term ascending channel but is still respecting the major uptrend structure
Currently testing support zones with potential for either continuation or deeper correction
Key zone around 3,013.67 is holding for now, but volatility is expected
🆕 Monday Opening (March 25, 2025) Update:
Gold opened with weakness after a brief end-of-week bounce
Price is currently stalling at a key Fibonacci retracement area (0.5–0.618) on H1/H2
Buyers have lost momentum, suggesting a consolidation or second leg down may be forming
🔁 Scenarios:
🟢 Bullish Scenario:
Price holds above 3,000 / 2,987 zone
Rebound to test 3,031.80 → breakout → targets 3,046.38 and 3,057.58
🔴 Bearish Scenario:
Failure to hold 3,000 → break below 2,987 → opens downside continuation
Price could revisit deeper demand zones below (e.g., 2,970–2,950)
📌 Key Levels:
Resistance: 3,031- 3,046 - 3,057
Support: 3,013 - 3,000.33 - 2,987
🎯 TRADE PLAN – XAUUSD
BUY ZONE: 3000 – 2998
SL: 2994
TP: 3004 – 3008 – 3012 – 3016 – 3020
SELL ZONE: 3030 – 3032
SL: 3036
TP: 3026 – 3022 – 3018 – 3014 – 3010 – 3000
Trade within reaction zones. Prioritize partial profits and always protect your capital with tight SLs.
✅ Conclusion:
Gold is still technically bullish but in a corrective phase
Market awaits confirmation from either bulls or bears before a clean breakout
News flow + macro data (PCE) will be key catalysts this week
Stay patient, trade the levels, and let price action lead
— AD | Money Market Flow
WHY DO 97% OF TRADERS LOSE MONEY IN THE MARKET?🧠 WHY DO 97% OF TRADERS LOSE MONEY IN THE MARKET?
And what should you truly prepare before you begin?
You’ve probably heard this one before:
“97% of traders lose money.”
Not because they’re not smart.
Not because they lack a good strategy.
But because they enter the market with the wrong mindset and unrealistic expectations.
❌ The market is not a gold mine — not for everyone
Many people step into trading thinking:
“Forex is a money printer. Anyone can just come in and take what they want.”
But here’s the truth:
👉 The market doesn’t hand out profits. It takes money from the unprepared and gives it to the disciplined.
It doesn’t care about your dreams — it only respects your readiness.
💸 You will lose money — and it will sting
Even if you believe your strategy is solid, it will fail at some point.
And when it does, the price you pay is real money — your own money.
And because it’s your hard-earned money, you’ll feel the pain. You’ll get emotional.
You’ll want to get it back. You’ll enter trades impulsively.
And that’s exactly when the market will drag you by the nose.
⚠️ The biggest mistake: thinking a good strategy is enough
Most new traders believe:
“Once I have a working strategy, I’ll be consistently profitable.”
But the truth is:
Every strategy fails sometimes
The market doesn’t follow your logic
A bad entry isn’t what ruins you — refusing to cut the loss is
🧘♂️ So what should you actually prepare before trading?
If you’re about to start trading — or afraid to fail early — make sure to prepare:
✅ A solid foundation of knowledge
✅ A mindset that accepts loss without losing control
✅ The ability to say: “It’s okay to lose a trade — I just need to survive long enough to learn and grow.”
📌 Other people’s strategies won’t make you profitable
Yes, I often share my outlooks, plans, and even potential entry zones.
But always remember:
My view is just a perspective — not a guarantee of success.
Trading is personal.
You’ll only become consistently profitable when:
You trust in a system you’ve practiced yourself
You take trades because you see the logic, not because someone else agrees with you
🔄 Trading is a process: Try – Fail – Learn – Repeat
I’ve lost. I’ve been stubborn. I’ve gotten emotional.
And I learned:
You don’t need to win all the time.
You just need to survive your losses and come back smarter.
A stop-loss isn’t failure.
It’s the most mature decision you can make in a chaotic environment.
🤝 I won’t promise that you’ll make money
The knowledge I share — the views I post —
may not make you rich.
But I believe:
They can help you avoid losing money needlessly.
Don’t believe anyone 100% — not even me.
Take what you learn, test it, and turn it into your own conviction.
That’s how you grow.
❤️ Final thoughts
Trading isn’t a game of prediction — it’s a test of psychology.
You don’t have to be the best trader.
You just need to protect your capital, protect your mindset, and keep showing up.
Wishing you all a peaceful weekend with your loved ones.
Tomorrow, we return to the market — sharper, calmer, and more disciplined.
The market will always be there. The real question is: will you still be here to trade it next month, next year?
— AD | Money Market Flow