Gold Consolidates Ahead of Fed: Buy Signal or Bull Trap?🟡 XAUUSD 18/06 – Gold Consolidates Ahead of Fed: Buy Signal or Bull Trap?
🌐 MACRO & SENTIMENT OVERVIEW
The US Dollar Index (DXY) gained 0.7% to start the week, as markets anticipate the Fed may keep rates higher for longer due to rising oil prices and global geopolitical uncertainty.
However, with the upcoming FOMC meeting and US retail sales data, there is a strong potential for a shift in tone if growth shows signs of weakness.
Geopolitical tensions – particularly in the Middle East (Israel–Iran conflict) – continue to support gold’s defensive appeal, even as short-term profit-taking creates volatility.
📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – M30 Chart
Gold is currently trading inside a descending channel, but price structure remains above EMA 13–34–89, keeping the potential for a bullish reversal alive.
Liquidity has been absorbed multiple times near 3,345, aligning with dynamic support from trendline and horizontal structure → a key decision zone for bulls.
On the upside, resistance between 3,440 – 3,445 remains a critical distribution zone, likely to trigger sell reactions if price fails to break convincingly.
🎯 TRADE SETUPS
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3345 – 3343
SL: 3339
TP: 3350 – 3354 – 3358 – 3362 – 3366 – 3370 – 3380 – 3400 – ???
📌 This zone overlaps with trendline and recent demand areas. Watch for bullish price action confirmation (e.g., engulfing, pin bar) before entering. If confirmed, we expect a strong bounce targeting the upper channel and beyond.
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3442 – 3444
SL: 3448
TP: 3438 – 3434 – 3430 – 3425 – 3420 – 3410 – 3400
📌 This is a strong supply area that has rejected price multiple times. Look for reversal signals like bearish divergence or rejection wicks to consider short entries.
✅ SUMMARY
Gold is caught in a critical reaccumulation zone ahead of the FOMC statement. Patience is key: allow the market to react at liquidity zones and follow price behavior instead of chasing moves.
Stick to your zones – protect your capital – and let the setups come to you.
