Gapfill
Wait For A Trade Come to You. Don't Rush, Don't Chase The PriceWe should not buy the 1st dip in the morning today, Nifty trading around 9390 which is the previous swing high.
Nifty still has room to go towards 9260-9175. There is a Gap to be filled at that level.
Trading requires a clear trading plan and trade management. So here is a clear trading plan.
Entry Between 9200-9250
Stop-loss 100-125 Points away from Entry Price.
Target 9700
Risk/Reward 1:5
So it's wise to wait for 9260-9175 levels and go for a long position.
Remember, this long position will again be in the counter-trend.
The primary and intermediate trends are still down. And on the daily chart, we are having a counter-rally.
Also, don't forget it's May 2020. I know you may have heard many times SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY. It is very much likely that nifty may resume the primary downtrend and continue to fall.
But that must not restrict us to take the calculated risk even in counter-trend. We already achieved 1:6 Risk/Reward or 588 points in the previous trade. That was also a calculated risk in counter-trend.
Wait For A Trade Comes to You. Don't Rush, Don't Chase The Price
No trade is also a good trade.
Thanx.
Gap & Doji In Asian PaintsA gap can be seen in the price of Asian Paints(highlighted in green), a previous attempt to fill the gap on 18th April did not succeed, stock has been able to hold Fibonacci level of 23.6%. Two successive dojis can be seen recently and delivery percentage for last three days are 55%,67%,57%(positive sign). The stock might move up once again to fill the gap.
Jai Hind
The Exhaustion Candle
What is exhaustion?
The exhaustion is a stage at which buyers are tired out(in an uptrend), either because the price made a new all time high too fast with a huge gap (where the valuations are unacceptable for the buyers) or the price ran too fast into a resistance zone where the buyers do not want to buy because of supply risk at the resistance.
Normally both these cases are associated with huge volume spikes, which means big traders have been changing hands at those levels.
The stage 1 for exhaustion day is a spike higher.
Most of the time there will be a noticeable wick at the top of the exhaustion day candle. That is due to (intraday) short covering, especially when the preceding day was a red day. Lot of traders would have shorted the stock the previous day and left with no option than to 'cover their short positions', seeing a huge gap up and huge loss in their PnL, resulting quick spike in the price.
Example, when Dr.Reddy closes at 2443 on 20th Nov. (a huge red day) and opens at 2608 on 21st Nov., everyone who shorted on 20th covered right in the opening due to 165 pts loss.
The Stage 2 for exhaustion day is supply
Normally the exhaustion is followed by either a consolidation or a pullback. Sellers get active in to the resistance zone due to price history and want to push the price lower. Their tendencies are to fill the gap created during the exhaustion. Their first few attempts would definitely make them money because of diminished demand after the exhaustion day. This creates a wick at the top of the exhaustion candle.
Where the negativity ends?
The above discussion reflects bearish sentiments associated with the exhaustion candles. One of the following scenarios may follow this day.
If the price made a new all time high in the exhaustion day, it will take some time before the stock regains demand. May be at gap fill or at some standard moving average.
On the other hand, if the stock has jumped into the resistance on the exhaustion day, the risk will diminish above the supply zone OR alternately this may be the beginning of a new down leg if the stock was in a long term downtrend. So always keep the long term trend and S/R in to account before trading even on micro time frames.
Although this explanation was brief yet it would have added into the knowledge of some of my fellow traders.
See you with new ideas and knowledge. Just keep liking, commenting and sharing.
Regards
Bravetotrade
WHY NIFTY GOING UP? AGAIN A GAP DOWN ON MON (15 Oct)POSSIBLE?THIS IS THE THIRD PART OF THE ANALYSIS ON NIFTY 2.32% FALL. IF YOU NOT READ THE PREVIOUS ONE 2 POSTS, PLEASE READ THE SAME FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING. I HAVE ALSO SHARED ITS LINK BELOW.
Last time we estimated a big downfall in the month of October and believed that IT Sector might stay in pressure as the results of Tata Elxsi disappointed and Number of TCS may also disappoint.
Although, There was no downfall today. the top companies of IT Sector behaved in the manner as expected. TCS, Mindtree, NIIT and HCL Tech ended on the negative note and other companies fell initially but recovered and ended with minor gains.
However one major thing to see is all the major global markets including Nikkei, Dow Jones, other Index were in Dark Red and even SGX NIfty was in -200 (although I do not believe SGX Nifty is directly related to Nifty but being part of the global market, even it depicts the sentiment of the market). Our Nifty did not showed any Red Colour.
FII Data suggest that they have net purchased 7.9K Index Futures and 10.2K stock Futures.
Important Event.
1. Consumer inflation stood at 3.77 per cent as against 3.69 per cent in the previous month. This rise in inflation was driven by higher prices of food and fuel along with weakness in the rupee. The retail inflation figure was lower than economists' estimates of 4% and was within the comfort zone of RBI. (Good for Market).
2. Good result of Nifty 50 Company - HUL.
3. Lined up result of Nifty 50 Company in coming week- Infy, Reliance, HeroMotoCorp, HDFC Bank
Candles Formation
The last 3 day candles have created a Bullish reversal pattern in the form of Morning Star.
Interpretation
With a rise of Today, FII has also added Longs in Shares and Indexes. We can expect a small pullback rally over here. HUL has result has been great, which will have a positive impact on the market after poor numbers from TCS. In The coming week result of top Nifty 50 companies are there, which will shape the market.
In the process to up,There has been 2 Gaps created in the past downfall and crossed 2 Fibo support (Mentioned Below) which will stop the market from going up.
Resistance 1 - Gap 1 - 10520-10550
Resistance 2 - Fibo Resistance 38.2 - 10650
Resistance 3 - Gap 2 - 10750-10850
Resistance 4 - Fibo Resistance 0.5 - 10860
The Above 4 levels are going to act as major resistance. Even after being optimistic, I do not feel market will be able to cross Resistance 3.
Please note Pullback are short term and short lived. Thus, I personally do not prefer trading the pullbacks. However these pullbacks gives good level to again short the market.
Please also note : FII even after covering have 89K Shorts. The fall can be deffer-ed but is certain to come until FII decide to cut their shorts in losses. (which never happen :P)
The last time Nifty/Bank Nifty rose 300/800 points, it witnessed a bigger Gap Down the next day. I do not expect the same on Monday. Market might open Flat.
These are just my thoughts, and my view to the things going around. I hope it Helps.
All counter views welcomed if they intend a fruitful discussion. And If Warren Buffet says he still learns, who are we to say or believe that we know all. Lets learn together and Earn together.
Thanks.
NIFTY: Week Ahead, Spot & FUT Levels for 23/08/18.11562 looks Crucial.
If stays below that for 15 - 30 mins, more weakness will come.
bullish Gap at 11486 -11500, may possible Gap Covering in rest of the week.
In DOW JONES: Witnessing "Bearish ENGULFING" in Last trading session.
Future levels mentioned on Chart for "T+1 basis"
BANKNIFTY: At a Glance Weekly & Intra(01/05/18) FUT+ Weekly Spot...... Spot & Future Intraday, future Weekly Levels plotted & mentioned on chart.
Possibility to FILL Bearish GAP at 26364.05 - 26215.10 Formed on 05/02/18.
Crucial level Near 25789, If crossed & stay for 15 - 30 min. 26400 level can't be ruled out.
Though Published in "EDUCATIONl" section, but for swing Trade I am Bullish .
Trade as per Specified level with description.
FUTURE Trader Should take position with Hedge strategy.
Disclaimer: Take this information as study/education purpose only.
If Useful Like & Share
For taking trade decision Consult with your Financial Advisor.
[iFollow TIMELINE for Analysis in Other Time Frame.
NIFTY: What's NEXT? Spot & FUT important Level Weekly Basis...... Spot & Future Intraday, Future Weekly Levels
Plotted & Mentioned on chart.
Weekly crucial "RESISTANCE Zone" : 10763 - 10804
Trade as per Specified level with description.
FUTURE Trader Should take position with Hedge strategy.
Disclosure: Take this information as study/education purpose only.
If Useful Like & Share
For taking trade decision Consult with your Financial Advisor.
ICICI Bank ( BULLS Vs BEAR ) Daily Chart As per daily chart in ICICI BANK Bears phase cycle is on swing with the negative impact of both Fundamentally on sector wise and as well as Technically. But as Fight Continue from Swing high of 307 Bears Attacked on Bulls with Three Consecutive Drag down Round upto 295 levels and Bears have More Power to Beat Bulls to the level 276.50 and more below 262 Levels as Gaps can be Closed below that LEVEL
Please Like, Comment and Share your Views
Thank you GOD Bless You
Sachin Ghodke
BANKNIFTY: FUT+ Spot, At a Glance for Trade Date 01st 2018....... Spot & Future Intraday, future Weekly Levels plotted & mentioned on chart.
Important to WATCH: "Formed Bearish GAP BTW 25356.4 to 25192.20"
Possibility to Fill.
Notice one thing mentioned "TFZ / HZ #2: 25332 - 25360" also matched.
Trade as per Specified level with description.
FUTURE Trader Should take position with Hedge strategy.
Disclosur: Information shared here can be my view or real trades.
As i am not SEBI regd. analyst, Take this information as study/education purpose only.
.......... If Useful Like & Share
For taking trade decision Consult with financial Advisor.