Gapfill
HDFC AMC ready for upmove?HDFC AMC have formed a piercing pattern on 75 minutes time frame, which converts downtrend into uptrend. The stock gave confirmation after breaking 2439 and closed above it. Also, there is huge gap of approx 100 points which the stock might try to fill. Stock can rise up to at least by Rs.100 from current levels. Lets see how it goes on Monday.
Reliance Short opportunity almost 344 points CMP : 1588.80
Gap occurred ( Facebook Deal) and not filled yet and going higher high.
No doubt, Its true reliance outperformed, but their earning report is coming in a couple of days (17th July). Hope that will crash the price and make it fill the gap and attract more buyers to buy that level. Thats what technical says.
Hanging man appears @ Weekly TF at resistance level.
Can buy a OTM PUT in July Expiry trading around Rs.5.25
Lot size 505 x 5.25 = 2650/- is the max risk hence no SL required
If want to cut risk, enter below 1550 when the inside trendline is broke.
Target low price : 1244
SHORT NIFTY should try gap filling in near future...There's an unfilled gap in NIFTY between 9712 and 9604. Nifty has evaded that gap 3 to 4 times and the possibility is higher that next time nifty can fill that gap. If we draw a trendline connecting the lows, that trendline intersects the point 9604 on 18-Jun-2020. Nifty can possibly fill the gap in next week...
Centurytex Simple analysis to countCenturytex
If it crosses above 300 buy
Target - 288
If it crosses below281 sell
Target - 275
Keep Stoploss according to your risk appetite
Wait For A Trade Come to You. Don't Rush, Don't Chase The PriceWe should not buy the 1st dip in the morning today, Nifty trading around 9390 which is the previous swing high.
Nifty still has room to go towards 9260-9175. There is a Gap to be filled at that level.
Trading requires a clear trading plan and trade management. So here is a clear trading plan.
Entry Between 9200-9250
Stop-loss 100-125 Points away from Entry Price.
Target 9700
Risk/Reward 1:5
So it's wise to wait for 9260-9175 levels and go for a long position.
Remember, this long position will again be in the counter-trend.
The primary and intermediate trends are still down. And on the daily chart, we are having a counter-rally.
Also, don't forget it's May 2020. I know you may have heard many times SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY. It is very much likely that nifty may resume the primary downtrend and continue to fall.
But that must not restrict us to take the calculated risk even in counter-trend. We already achieved 1:6 Risk/Reward or 588 points in the previous trade. That was also a calculated risk in counter-trend.
Wait For A Trade Comes to You. Don't Rush, Don't Chase The Price
No trade is also a good trade.
Thanx.
Gap & Doji In Asian PaintsA gap can be seen in the price of Asian Paints(highlighted in green), a previous attempt to fill the gap on 18th April did not succeed, stock has been able to hold Fibonacci level of 23.6%. Two successive dojis can be seen recently and delivery percentage for last three days are 55%,67%,57%(positive sign). The stock might move up once again to fill the gap.
Jai Hind
The Exhaustion Candle
What is exhaustion?
The exhaustion is a stage at which buyers are tired out(in an uptrend), either because the price made a new all time high too fast with a huge gap (where the valuations are unacceptable for the buyers) or the price ran too fast into a resistance zone where the buyers do not want to buy because of supply risk at the resistance.
Normally both these cases are associated with huge volume spikes, which means big traders have been changing hands at those levels.
The stage 1 for exhaustion day is a spike higher.
Most of the time there will be a noticeable wick at the top of the exhaustion day candle. That is due to (intraday) short covering, especially when the preceding day was a red day. Lot of traders would have shorted the stock the previous day and left with no option than to 'cover their short positions', seeing a huge gap up and huge loss in their PnL, resulting quick spike in the price.
Example, when Dr.Reddy closes at 2443 on 20th Nov. (a huge red day) and opens at 2608 on 21st Nov., everyone who shorted on 20th covered right in the opening due to 165 pts loss.
The Stage 2 for exhaustion day is supply
Normally the exhaustion is followed by either a consolidation or a pullback. Sellers get active in to the resistance zone due to price history and want to push the price lower. Their tendencies are to fill the gap created during the exhaustion. Their first few attempts would definitely make them money because of diminished demand after the exhaustion day. This creates a wick at the top of the exhaustion candle.
Where the negativity ends?
The above discussion reflects bearish sentiments associated with the exhaustion candles. One of the following scenarios may follow this day.
If the price made a new all time high in the exhaustion day, it will take some time before the stock regains demand. May be at gap fill or at some standard moving average.
On the other hand, if the stock has jumped into the resistance on the exhaustion day, the risk will diminish above the supply zone OR alternately this may be the beginning of a new down leg if the stock was in a long term downtrend. So always keep the long term trend and S/R in to account before trading even on micro time frames.
Although this explanation was brief yet it would have added into the knowledge of some of my fellow traders.
See you with new ideas and knowledge. Just keep liking, commenting and sharing.
Regards
Bravetotrade






















