Geopolitics — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Gold hits record 3,759 | Safe-haven flows surge back 🟡 XAU/USD – 23/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News Today Gold surged nearly +2% , hitting a record $3,759/oz . Geopolitical tensions : Israel launched missiles into Lebanon, killing 5 (including 4 US citizens) → safe-haven demand rushed back into Gold. USD weakened , capital flowed out of stocks & bonds → strong support for precious metals. ETFs & speculators : heavy buying amplified the rally. Silver : jumped to its highest level in 14 years, reinforcing strength in the precious metals sector. ⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold is fueled by geopolitics, macro factors, and safe-haven demand. But after a hot rally, the big question: continue breaking highs or face sharp swings if the FED shifts tone? 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis (H45) Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) 3,771 – 3,787 (Fibo 0.5–0.618 confluence, ATH test zone) Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) Near support: 3,740 (previous high turned support) OB Dock: 3,717 – 3,723 Breakout Harbor: 3,689 – 3,691 Market Structure Gold broke out to Higher High around 3,755 – 3,759. Main trend remains bullish, but prone to volatility / pullback after a hot rally. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan ✅ Buy (trend-follow priority) Buy Zone 1 (OB) Entry: 3,717 – 3,723 SL: 3,707 TP: 3,725 – 3,730 – 3,735 – 3,740 – 3,750 Buy Zone 2 (Breakout Retest) Entry: 3,689 – 3,691 SL: 3,678 TP: 3,699 – 3,710 – 3,7xx ⚡ Sell (short-term scalp if overbought) Sell Zone (ATH test) Entry: 3,783 – 3,785 SL: 3,795 TP: 3,759 – 3,740 – 3,717 ⚓ Captain’s Note “The geopolitical storm pushed the Golden sails past 3,759. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,717 – 3,689) is the safe dock for sailors to board the northbound trend. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,771 – 3,787) may raise heavy waves, suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. The main voyage remains bullish, but after a hot rally, sailors must keep a firm hand on the helm to avoid being thrown off by choppy swings.”

XAU/USD – GOLD 08/09 | Captain Vincent Observing JPY & USD | Buy still holds dominance 🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context This morning there were no major new updates. The US session tonight (08/09) will also not release big data. The latest impact on the market is Japanese PM S. Ishiba’s resignation , which pressured JPY downward and slightly lifted the Dollar. However, Gold only made a small correction and maintained strong stability. ➡️ Captain’s Summary: Dollar and JPY currently only have indirect influence, not enough to push Gold deeply lower. The main trend is still supported for a bullish rebound. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis Captain’s Shield (Main Support): Golden Harbor OB: 3542 – 3549 Main Buy Zone: 3549 – 3551 Liquidity Dock: 3573 – 3575 Storm Breaker (Resistance): Quick Boarding: 3602 – 3604 (Short-term Sell scalp) Storm Breaker Peak: 3632 – 3634 (Sell zone – may form a new ATH) ⏩ Price structure remains bullish (continuous BOS). Corrections are mainly liquidity grabs before pushing up to higher resistance zones. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority) Buy Zone: 3549 – 3551 | SL: 3542 | TP: 3553 → 3557 → 3560 → 3563 → 35xx Liquidity Dock: 3573 – 3575 | SL: 3565 | TP: 3578 → 3581 → 3583 → 35xx ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Short-term) Entry: 3602 – 3604 SL: 3610 TP: 3600 → 3597 → 3594 → 3591 → 3588 → 35xx 🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – New ATH) Entry: 3632 – 3634 SL: 3640 TP: 3629 → 3625 → 3623 → 3619 → 361x ⚓ Captain’s Note “The golden ship sails steadily as the seas remain calm this morning, with no big news waves. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3549 – 3551) together with OB near 3542 is the safe anchorage for sailors riding the bullish trend. Liquidity Dock ⚓ (3573 – 3575) is just a temporary anchor before the bullish winds carry the ship further. Quick Boarding 🚤 (3602 – 3604) is for those who want to ride short-term waves. And if the ship touches Storm Breaker 🌊 (3632 – 3634) , it may be a new wave peak – but the grand journey is still headed North with the bullish sails full of wind.”

XAU/USD – FED, Tariffs & NFP Today | Captain Vincent 🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News The probability of a FED rate cut in September has risen to 99.4% (from 96.6%) → almost certain. FED’s Cook is under fraud investigation , combined with weak prior economic data → further strengthens momentum for Gold. US–Japan deal : US reduces chip import tariffs to 15%, in return Japan invests 550B USD + purchases 8B USD in agricultural products. Although positive, it does not change the main outlook as markets remain focused on interest rates & inflation. Trump : Threatens tariffs on all chip/semis companies not entering the US → raises geopolitical concerns. NFP & Unemployment Rate (UR) tonight at 19:30 → key event, may trigger strong volatility. ⏩ Captain’s Summary: Capital flow still leans towards BUY Gold thanks to FED rate cut expectations, but short-term shakeouts may occur before/after the news. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis M30 BOS: Gold has just formed a Break of Structure, overall trend remains bullish. Captain’s Shield (Support): 3484 – 3486 (Main Buy Zone). Storm Breaker (Resistance): 3575 – 3593 (aligned with Fibo 0.5 – 0.618). If it breaks 3591 – 3593 → pathway to new ATH 3608 – 3610 or higher. If it fails at Storm Breaker → price may retest Golden Harbor (3484) before bouncing back. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority) Entry: 3484 – 3486 SL: 3478 TP: 3490 → 3493 → 3497 → 3505 → 35xx ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Short-term) Entry: 3575 – 3577 SL: 3585 TP: 3570 → 3565 → 3560 → 3555 → 35xx 🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – Resistance) Entry: 3591 – 3593 SL: 3600 TP: 3588 → 3585 → 3580 → 3575 → 35xx ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden ship sails smoothly as FED is almost certain to cut rates in September. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3484) is the safe anchorage to continue riding the bullish tide. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3575–3593) may create big waves for short Quick Boarding 🚤 , but the main current still carries us North.”

XAU/USD – Market awaits JOLTS, Gold holds safe-haven role ⚓️ Captain Vincent – XAU/USD: US–Venezuela tensions push Gold as safe haven 1. Market News 🌍 US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the US military attacked a drug ship departing from Venezuela, as Washington steps up pressure on the Maduro government. Earlier, Trump offered a $50 million bounty to force Venezuela’s President out of power, while deploying military forces near the Caribbean coast. 👉 These moves raise fears of a potential regional conflict, making Gold the top safe-haven asset. The strong rally this morning reflects safe-haven flows returning to GOLD. 📌 Tonight’s focus (3/9 – 21:00): JOLTS Job Openings report – a key gauge of US labour market health. If the data comes weaker than expected → USD may face more pressure → Gold could accelerate higher. 2. Technical Analysis ⚙️ On the H1 chart, Gold has formed multiple BOS (Break of Structure), showing the bullish trend remains in control. Buy Zone 3,478 – 3,480: Aligns with a major Order Block, strong support for pullback entries. Sell Zone 3,577 – 3,579: Near fib extension 1.618, potential resistance where profit-taking may appear. Key Support – Resistance zones: Support: 3,528 – 3,507 Resistance: 3,562 – 3,585 3. Trade Scenarios 📌 🔺 BUY Zone (Priority) Entry: 3,478 – 3,480 SL: 3,470 TP: 3,483 → 3,486 → 3,489 → 349x → 35xx 🔻 SELL Zone (Resistance) Entry: 3,577 – 3,579 SL: 3,586 TP: 3,573 → 3,570 → 3,567 → 3,560 → 35xx 4. Conclusion ⚓ Gold continues to benefit from US–Venezuela geopolitical tensions, while maintaining a bullish structure with consecutive BOS signals. In the short term, traders may: Look to BUY around 3,478 – 3,480 to follow the main trend. Watch for short-term SELL at 3,577 – 3,579 if price retests strong resistance. 👉 With geopolitical risks rising and US economic data (JOLTS) due tonight, Gold remains the No.1 safe-haven asset.