Gold buyers appear well-set to visit $1,985 hurdleGold price rises to the highest level in a month after crossing a convergence of the 200-SMA and a six-week-old descending trend line, around $1,940 by the press time. The breakout joins bullish MACD signals to keep XAUUSD buyers hopeful. However, the overbought RSI (14) conditions suggest limited upside room, which in turn highlights a horizontal resistance area comprising multiple tops marked since May 18, close to $1,985. It’s worth noting that the metal’s upside past $1,985 appears difficult as the $2,000 psychological magnet and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of May-June downside, near $2,030, could challenge the bulls before directing them to the yearly top marked in May around $2,067.
On the contrary, Gold price pullback remains elusive unless the quote stays beyond the $1,940 resistance-turned-support comprising the 200-SMA and a 1.5-month-long falling trend line. Following that, the early-month swing high of around $1,934 and the previous resistance line stretched from May 04, close to 1,916, at the latest, will challenge the XAUUSD sellers. In a case where the bullion bears keep the reins past $1,916, the $1,900 will act as the last defense of the bulls.
Overall, Gold Price is likely to rise further towards the short-term key resistance as the US Dollar drops heavily.
Gold
Gold price rising? Only to plunge again! ICT Approach To XAUUSD.Hello Traders!
We see a test of the 2080 resistance level once again. Weekly and daily ranges are marked on the chart.
The market is in premium zone on the weekly and Lower High (LH) picture is maintained on the daily.
Also, we're in a discount zone on the daily . Hence some retracement to equilibrium and the daily bearish order block (OB) is expected.
The daily OB is also overlapping with a weekly bearish OB . That makes the 1940-1945 zone an extremely important resistance. Strong selling is expected from the said level.
The quarter has just ended on 30th June 2023 and this quarter is expected to be bearish as well. Although the seasonal tendency of XAUUSD in July is bullish, the same may not be expected this time but could be a cause for deeper retracements.
Do use proper risk management.
Happy Trading!
Profits,
Market's Mechanic.
Gold sellers must break $1,895 to show dominance on NFP dayWith a clear U-turn from the 100-EMA, Gold price again hits the key support around $1,895 comprising the 200-EMA and an upward-sloping trend line from late November 2022. That said, bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI join the market’s risk-off mood to offer extra incentives for the XAUUSD bears. With this, the Gold sellers are more likely to take out the $1,895 support, which in turn could direct the prices toward the early March swing high of around $1,858. However, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of November 2022 to May 2023 upside, near $1,845, will precede the yearly low marked in February around $1,805 and the $1,800 round figure to limit the metal’s further downside.
On the contrary, a successful daily closing beyond the 100-EMA level of around $1,935 needs support from the downbeat US jobs report to recall the Gold buyers. In that case, February’s peak of around $1,960 and the previous monthly high surrounding $1,983 could check the XAUUSD bulls before allowing them to visit the $2,000 psychological magnet. It’s worth noting that the bullion remains on the front foot once it closes beyond the $2,000 mark, which in turn helps it challenge the tops marked in April and the multi-year high registered in May, respectively near $2,050 and $2,070.
Overall, the Gold price is all set to break the key support and recall the bears but the short positions should be taken with care ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
#XAUUSD 🔴 M15. Sell (Gold). Global Imbalance
A Global Level of Imbalance (H1) has formed. (+)
An imbalance of M15 has formed at the upper boundary of the H1 Range. (+)
The price is higher than the market opening. (+)
Resistance is the zone of imbalance of the open interest of stock options. (+)
input: 1927.43 (input on imbalance test)
stop: 1931.02
tp-1: 1923.81
tp-2: 1916.52
GOLD MONTH TIME FRAMEAll time Low @20.540
All time High @2075.282 03Aug2020 in Black color.
There's a pullback on 07March2022 in Red color.
We can see here a Extrem POI on XAUUSD @438.184 - 410.486 is not mitigate yet but sooner or later price will come down to mitigate. I have marked five POI the last POI is @1226.477 - 1161.197 on 01Aug2018
01Sep1999 we saw a Bull Run {Bullmarket} till 01Sep2011 @1921.070 we thought that's a all time high @1921.070 because price started to drop. And price drop! till 01Dec2015
On 03Aug2020 Gold created new high @2075.282 and that's a all time HIGH again price come down to pushup to create new high but markets fuel tank get low and there we get a Rejection price failed to touch the all time high on 07March2022
Another Rejection on 07May2023
I THINK SOON WE CAN SEE A NEW HIGH ON GOLD.
If.... price cross @1618.025 this level then we can see a mitigation @1226.477
GOLD WEEKLY TIME FRAMEI Have Marked five POI on weekly TF to take entries on BUY side. So you can see my last POI @1859.207 - 1802.859 that's POI for LONG.
We can see a Rejection on 04May2023 @2067 price was not able to touch previous Rejection level @2070.630
Now Price is coming to mitigate @1859.207 that POI is for LONG position.
After mitigation we can see a new High on XAUUSD
Gold sellers are ready to break $1,900 but road to the south is Gold stays on the way to post the third consecutive weekly loss even as the one-month-old falling trend line prod XAUUSD sellers around $1,900 of late. Also challenging the quote’s further downside is the nearly oversold RSI (14) line. However, the bullion’s sustained trading beneath the fortnight-long falling trend line and the 200-SMA, respectively near $1,918 and $1,956, joins the bearish MACD signals to keep the sellers hopeful of witnessing further downside. In a case where the quote crosses these hurdles, the monthly top will join the late May’s swing high, around $1,983-85, to act as the last defense of the bears.
Meanwhile, the Gold seller’s dominance past the $1,900 round figure will need validation from the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its June 09-23 moves, near $1,898. Following that, the 78.6% and 100% FE, close to $1,887 and $1,873, should be quick to lure the XAUUSD bears. It’s worth observing that the precious metal’s weakness past $1,873 will have the early March high of $1,856 as an intermediate halt before dragging prices toward the yearly low marked in February around $,804.
Overall, Gold price is likely to remain bearish but the south run is less likely to be smooth.
Gold to take downside Rally for Short Term with Channel RangeGOLD Trading In The Channel Range.
Taking Upside Resistance in the channel range trendline and moving downside.
BREAKING BELOW THE CHANNEL RANGE WILL IMPACT MORE DOWNSIDE FALL AND LEVELS GIVEN IN THE CHART.
{VIEWS ARE ONLY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE.}
Gold Price gradually declines towards $1,900Gold Price breaks a month-old bearish channel towards the south and suggests further downside past the latest three-month low surrounding $1,920. However, the oversold RSI conditions keep offering intermediate bounces as the bullion drops towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of May 15 to June 16 moves, near $1,907. Following that, the $1,900 round figure may test the XAUUSD bears before highlighting the 78.6% FE level of around $1,890. In a case where the precious metal remains weak past $1,890, the June 2022 peak of near $1,880 and early March 2023 high close to $1,858 will act as the last stops for the bulls to leave the throne and give control to the bears.
On the contrary, the bottom line of the stated bearish channel, close to $1,925 at the latest, can escalate the corrective bounce toward the $1,940 hurdle. However, a convergence of the 200-EMA and a three-week-old descending trend line, near $1,960, appears a tough nut to crack for the Gold buyers afterward. Even if they manage to cross the $1,960 resistance, the top line of the aforementioned falling trend channel, close to $1,970, will be the final battle before welcoming the bulls.
Overall, the Gold price is likely to decline further but the downside appears slow and steady.
Copper Set to Outperform Silver!Attached: COPPER/ SILVER Daily Chart as of 20th June 2023
The Ratio has given a Breakout from a Cup & Handle/ VCP Pattern today
Within the Commodity space it appears that Base Metals are doing better than Precious Metals
And so this Ratio can head higher to retest the 0.5 Fibo retracement level as the 1st Upside Target (marked on chart with arrow)
Technical Indicators also confirm the BO:
- RSI above 60
- MACD in Buy Mode and Above 0 line
- DMI in Buy Mode and ADX starting to Turn up
Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause”
Today the Federal Reserve chose not to proceed with an 11th consecutive interest rate hike, opting instead to assess the effects of the previous 10 hikes. However, the Fed announced that it anticipates implementing two additional quarter percentage point increases before the year concludes. While the pause was largely expected, the fact that policy makers see rates at 5.6% at year-end was what caught the market off-guard.
The combination of the pause with the suggestion of two more 25 basis points hikes has been dubbed the “hawkish pause”.
Following the decision, stock market closing results were mixed. The Dow Jones closed more than 230 points lower, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq experienced gains of 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. The Nasdaq Composite was primarily bolstered by the gains made in AI-adjacent stocks of Nvidia and AMD.
The day began with Bitcoin surpassing $26,000. However, it has since retraced to a 24-hour low of $25,791. Some analysts are predicting an inevitable drop to $25,000 based on recent cryptocurrency news that is dominated by discussions on regulation.
Meanwhile, gold prices initially rose to touch $1959 per ounce in the session but later trimmed gains, trading around $1945.
The dollar has weakened across the board, with the DXY down 0.32%. The NZD is the biggest mover, rising by more than one percent to a 3-week high of $0.6211. Gains in EUR and GBP were more modest, at +0.39% each.
Gold hovers above $1,940 critical support on Fed dayGold again bounces off the 100-DMA after five consecutive attempts to break an important moving average that has been pushing back bears since late May. Adding strength to the said DMA support is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its late February to May upside, near $1,940. It’s worth noting, however, that the oscillators portray a grim picture for the XAUUSD buyers and the Fed also can surprise markets, amid dovish hopes and softer US inflation. As a result, the probabilities favoring the metal’s fall to $1,914 and the $1,900 round figures are high, a break of which could recall the early March swing high of around $1,858 and the latest February lows of near $1,804 that act as the last defense of the buyers.
On the flip side, another recovery by the Gold price remains elusive unless it breaks the lower-high pattern established since late May. To do so, the bullion needs a daily close beyond the $1,984 mark. Even so, the 50-DMA hurdle of around $1,990 and the $2,000 threshold could play their roles to challenge the XAUUSD bulls. Following that, multiple levels around $2,020 and $2,050 can challenge the metal’s upside momentum before crossing the latest peak of around $2,080.
Overall, Gold buyers appear to run out of steam as the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision looms.
Gold prints bearish triangle as the dull week approaches its endDespite bracing for the second consecutive weekly gain, the Gold buyers appear running out of steam as the metal stays within a three-week-old bearish triangle, recently bouncing off the chart pattern’s bottom line. The latest recovery may initially gain momentum on breaking the weekly resistance line, around $1,965 by the press time, which in turn can challenge the 200-EMA surrounding $1,973. However, the XAUUSD buyers remain off the table unless witnessing a clear upside break of the stated triangle’s top line, close to $1,982 by the press time.
Meanwhile, Gold sellers can retake control on witnessing a clear downside break of the stated triangle’s bottom line, around $1,942 at the latest. Following that, the yearly low of near $1,932 may act as an extra check towards the south before dragging the quote towards the theoretical target of the triangle break, which is $1,888. However, multiple supports near $1,910 and the $1,900 threshold could challenge the bullion bears on their ruling.
Overall, Gold portrays bearish consolidation by the end of the unimpressive week. Though the next one is all-important as it comprises monetary policy meetings of the Fed and ECB.
GOLD(XAUUSD) Intraday Analysis : 07-Jun-23GOLD(XAUUSD) imp zones mentioned on chart
Sell< 1960 SL: 1965 Target: 1957,1950.1942+++
Buy>1965 SL: 1959.5 Target : 1969,1973,1980+++
Wait for Proper Rejections :
@Support : Bullish
@Resistance : Bearish
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