BULLISH SIGNAL FOR XAUUSD / GOLD ON CPI With the major data in line that is US - CPI data which is expected to come positive the Gold is set for another bullish run .
With the falling wedge formation the support will be 1718-1720
Target 1 : 1775
Target 2 : 1805
Stop loss : 1710
Goldidea
Gold Trend 13/07Gold hit a new 9-month low yesterday. The day began at 1733; the price briefly touched the day-low at 1722 and the day-high at 1744 early in the Asian session. Throughout the trading day, the price has bounded by 1725-35, with the day ending at 1725.
The price has tangled around the critical support of 1730 in the past 72; the trading atmosphere is like when the price tested the support at 1820(1) a while back without a clear breakthrough. The price finally passed the 1730 barrier yesterday; technically, we can expect the price to sink further in the next 48 hours. But, one thing bore in mind: the US will release its CPI figures today. Previously on the day(June 10th), as the US released worse than expected CPI figures, gold climbed more than USD 20 with a daily fluctuation of more than USD 50. 1710-00 remains the downside target for now, where prepare for a rapid price change at the time of the release of the figures.
The overall pattern hasn't changed much on the daily chart; the downtrend channel(4) is still dominating the structure on the daily chart, be patient for a reversal signal. After the price clears the support at 1730, technically, we can expect a new low in the next two days.
S-T Resistances:
1750
1740
1730
Market price: 1726
S-T Supports:
1720
1712-15
1708
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GOLD AnalysisSetup Contains:
1. Structure Shift
2. Liquidity hunt + Key Levels
3. Returned To Orderblock
FOLLOW PAFX & TRADE LIKE BANKS 💸
gold analayisHey traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around 1838 zone Target 1870 , once we will receive any bullish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe,
GOLD BULLS FOR NEXT TARGET READY BUY TARGET : 1860-1877
Stop loss below : 1818
Risk - Minimum
Reward - High
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Descriptions: A strengthening dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields impacted demand for the U.S. currency-priced yellow metal, which is set for a second consecutive monthly loss for the first time since March 2021. Gold prices will be influenced by the direction of U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar. Higher yields lower the appeal of zero-yielding gold, while a stronger U.S. Dollar makes the greenback more expensive for the holders of foreign currencies. Although last week’s economic data for April signaled the economy is still strong, traders are still not sure if this trend will continue after the 50 basis point rate hike in May, and expectations of similar moves in June and July. This suggests heightened volatility could be the norm over the near-term.
Technical View: Gold Price tested the bearish Moving Average , now at $1,849, with bears eyeing a decisive break below the latter to extend the ongoing downbeat momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is inching below the midline, allowing room for more declines.
Alternate View: Recapturing the daily highs of $1,857 is critical to take on the upside towards the previous day’s high of $1,864.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Description: Gold was up on Monday morning in Asia. A weaker dollar gave the yellow metal a boost, but a move towards riskier assets in Asia capped gains. Gold Price ended Friday with mild gains above $1,850 while having booked the second straight weekly gains, as the US dollar correction extended alongside the US Treasury yields’ amid subsiding aggressive Fed tightening expectations.
Technical View: Having found strong buyers once again at the bearish 200-Simple Moving Average, now at $1,849, gold price is looking for a retest of the previous week’s high of $1,870.
Alternate View: Failure to resist the latter will reinforce the selling interest, opening floors for a fresh downswing towards the May 18 low of $1,807.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Descriptions: Gold was up on Friday morning in Asia and was set for a second weekly gain after the dollar retreated from 20-year highs. Gold has benefited from a strong bearish reversal in the dollar. On May 13 the dollar index hit an apex trading to a high just above 105. In the last nine trading days, the dollar has declined to its current value of 101.775, or a 3.23% decline in value when compared to the basket of currencies that are compared against the dollar.
Technical View: The next critical target is at $1,861, which bulls will have scale on a convincing basis to validate an upside break .
Alternate View: If bears yield a sustained break below the 100-SMA, it will automatically invade the support as well, confirming a downside break.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Description: Gold was up on Thursday morning in Asia, while U.S. Treasury yields gained. Gold’s response has been quite disappointing, with the FOMC minutes also boosting risk sentiment. Gold cut some dollar strength-driven losses after Wednesday’s Fed minutes suggested the central bank would raise interest rates by 50 basis points in June and July 2022.
Technical view: According to the daily chart, Gold is poised to extend its decline. Gold has retreated below a mildly bearish 20 SMA while it approaches a directionless 200 SMA, offering dynamic support around 1,838.00. Technical indicators, in the meantime, retreat from their midlines, gaining bearish traction within negative levels.
Alternate View: Strong resistance is placed at $1,856, which is the horizontal 21-SMA, above which the hurdle at $1,863 will get tested.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Descriptions: Gold was up on Tuesday morning in Asia. The dollar was up, stabilizing after its fall during the previous session that helped boost the yellow metal to its highest point in two weeks. The bright metal took advantage of the dollar sell-off and built on the previous week’s recovery rally from four-month lows of $1787. However, the risk-on flows-driven rebound in the Wall Street indices, as well as, the US Treasury yields recalled gold sellers, which dragged the rates from multi-day highs.
Technical View: The near-term technical outlook for the metal remains more or less the same. Gold bulls are challenging the 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) hurdle at $1,857, having failed to hold ground above the latter. Daily closing above the latter is needed to confirm a bullish reversal, exposing the additional upside towards the mildly bullish 100-DMA at $1,885. Ahead of that the $1,870 round figure could challenge the bearish commitments. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is testing the midline, currently standing at 46.25, justifying the bullish bias in the price.
Alternate view: The immediate support is seen at the $1,850 psychological level. Sellers will then look out for the horizontal flattish 200-DMA at $1,839.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Descriptions: Gold was up on Monday morning in Asia, hitting a more than one-week high. A weakening dollar continued to support the greenback-priced yellow metal, even as rising U.S. Treasury yields capped gains. On Friday, particularly, a flight to safety theme remained in play, which boosted the demand for safe havens such as the dollar and the US government bonds. Therefore, the US rates suffered and provided extra legs to gold’s recovery. Looking forward, the German IFO Business Survey could help calm tensions surrounding economic slowdown while the US docket lacks any top-tier macro release this week, making for a quiet start to the Fed minutes week.
Technical Descriptions: Gold Price rose to a new six-day high of $1,849 on Friday, ending the week in the green for the first time in five. Friday’s advance was a continuation of the metal’s recovery from four-month lows of $1,787 reached last Monday. Ahead of that the $1,870 round figure could challenge the bearish commitments. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is closing in on the midline, looking to recapture it. This suggests that bulls could await confirmation before resuming the recovery mode.
Alternate view: Alternatively, the immediate support is seen at the flattish 200-DMA at $1,838. If sellers manage to find a strong foothold below the latter, then a steep drop towards the $1,800 demand area cannot be ruled out.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Descriptions: Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia but set for its first weekly gain since mid-April 2022. The dollar retreated from two-decade highs and growing concerns over U.S. economic growth saw investors turn to the safe-haven asset. Gold Price extended the previous rebound and stormed through the critical 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA), now at $1,838 after lurking below the latter so far this week. Gold Price benefited, as the greenback resumed its correction from two-decade highs alongside falling yields. The bright metal jumped as much as 1.5% to test the $1,850 barrier before easing to settle the day at $1,842.
Technical View: Five-day highs of $1,849 will be retested on buying resurgence, reopening the upside towards the level of 1862.
Alternate View: Should the 200-DMA, now support, cave in once again, then Wednesday's high at $1,825 will emerge as the next cushion for gold buyers.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Descriptions: Gold was down on Thursday morning in Asia, with a steady dollar and elevated Treasury yields weighing on the greenback-priced bullion, whose outlook has already been dampened by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive stance on inflation. Global growth fears resurfaced and triggered a flight to safety theme across the board, reviving the safe-haven bids for the US dollar. The market turned risk-averse after hot inflation in the UK, Europe and Canada re-ignited growth fears, especially at a time when major global central banks are looking to tighten aggressively to curb raging inflation.
Technical View: At the time of writing, XAUUSD is testing the rising trendline support at 1813, having failed to defend the horizontal 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1816.
The next critical support awaits at the multi-month lows of 1787.
Alternate View: The 200-SMA is critical to alleviating the bearish pressure, which could see gold bulls re-attempting resistance at 1819.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Descriptions: Gold was down on Wednesday morning in Asia, with the dollar continuing its retreat from a 20-year high and countering pressure from stronger Treasury yields. Gold drops for the second consecutive day, taking offers around 1808 to refresh the intraday low heading into Wednesday’s European session, as sour sentiment joins the firmer US dollar. The market’s early-week optimism fades as China reports higher covid cases. Having faced rejection at the critical 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) of 1836, Gold Price changed its course and resumed the ongoing downtrend.
Technical View: Gold drops for the second consecutive day, taking offers around 1808 to refresh the intraday low heading into Wednesday’s European session, as sour sentiment joins the firmer US dollar.
The immediate support is now seen at the 1800 mark, below which the multi-month lows of 1787 can be seen.
Alternate Scenario: Any recovery attempt will eye a retest along the level of 1831.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Descriptions: Gold was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, even as the dollar slowly resumed an upward trend. A sustained move under 1830 will signal the return of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a retest of the intraday low at 1785, followed by 1783.80 mark.
Technical View: Attempted recovery move stalled just ahead of the 1830 level. This is closely followed by the very important 200-day SMA, around the 1836 region, which should act as a pivotal point for short-term traders. Sustained strength beyond might trigger a fresh bout of a short-covering move and lift spot prices back towards the 1859-1860 supply zone.
Alternate Scenario: The 1811-1808 region now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 1800 round-figure mark and the overnight swing low, around the 1786 area.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Descriptions: Gold was down on Monday morning in Asia, climbing up from a more than three-month low hit in the previous session. Lower U.S. Treasury yields kept demand for gold afloat above the $1,800 mark. Marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline, the yellow metal fell more than 1% on Friday to its lowest level since Feb. 4 at 1798.86, before closing at 1811.15. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index for a fresh impetus later during the early North American session.
Technical View: Last week’s sustained break and acceptance below the very important 200-day SMA was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Prices showed some resilience below the 1800 mark on Friday.
Alternate Scenario: It will be interesting to see how early bulls will come forward to rescue gold in near term. Any upside attempt may lead the path for gold around the level of 1825-1830 region. This, in turn, might cap the metal near a technically significant moving average, around the $1,835 region.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Descriptions: Gold was down on Thursday morning. Investors are digesting the U.S. consumer price index (CPI), which suggested inflation remains high but has peaked in April, easing some concerns about more aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Looking ahead, Gold Price will continue to remain at the mercy of the US dollar price action and broader risk tone, as the Fed expectations and growth concerns keep leading the way.
Technical view: Gold Price tested offers below the critical 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,836 on Wednesday, although bulls defended the latter allowing an impressive recovery. The renewed upside in XAU/USD seems to be fading this Thursday, as the price is looking to surrender the previous week’s low and the psychological level at $1,850.
Alternate Scenario: Acceptance above Tuesday’s high of $1,865 is needed for Gold bulls to cement a meaningful recovery towards $1,884. Further, the $1,900 mark will challenge the bearish commitments.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Description: Gold was down during early hours in Asia, hitting its lowest level since February 11, as investors eyed the rising dollar and inflation data. " I know that families all across America are hurting because of inflation,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in a speech a day before the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Technical View: The Technical Confluences Detector shows that the Gold Price is testing the bullish commitments at critical support of $1,836. On the upside, any recovery could gain momentum only on a sustained break above the previous high in four-hour time frame at $1,851 could be tested.
Alternate Scenario: Further down, sellers will target the pivot point at $1,822. The last line of defense for gold bulls is seen at $1,817.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Descriptions: Gold was up on Tuesday over the weakening dollar. Investors now await inflation data. The precious metal has become more precious as a rebound in the positive market sentiment has trimmed the US dollar index safe-haven appeal. Worries over the impact of the Chinese covid curbs on the world’s no. 2 economy aggravated after the country reported trade surplus at two-year lows. Meanwhile, the Fed’s outlook on monetary policy normalization combined with the Ukraine crisis-led surging inflation continued to add to the gravitational forces around the Gold Price, as the greenback’s safe-haven appeal remained underpinned.
Technical View: The 200-SMA at $1,880 will be the level to beat for gold bulls should the recovery momentum continue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned flat below the midline, suggesting that the rebound could be losing steam.
Alternate Scenario: If sellers return, then the immediate downside target is seen at the previous day’s low of $1,852, below which the psychological $1,850 level. A fresh downswing will be initiated on a sustained move below the latter, opening floors towards the critical $1,835 demand area.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Descriptions: Gold portrays the risk-aversion wave during early Monday morning in Europe as it drops below the short-term key support, now resistance around $1,875. Market sentiment sours as China’s covid conditions, G7 sanctions on Russia join fears of Fed’s faster rate hikes. Despite Friday’s rebound, the path of least resistance for Gold Price remains down, given that the metal has carved out a bear flag on the daily chart. Daily closing below the rising trend line support at $1,868 will confirm the bearish continuation formation, opening floors for a fresh sell-off towards the $1,850 psychological barrier.
Technical View: As of writing, gold is trading at 1872. Any upside effort may lead its path back to the level of 1882, which is our S2.
Alternate Scenario: Break below 1866, may result in more weakness in the prices of gold in near term.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Descriptions: Gold Price has regained some strength as responsive buying kicks in after the precious metal tumbled to near $1,866.15 in the Asian session. Gold is likely to trade lackluster in the European shift as investors are on the sidelines ahead of the release of the NFP. The Fed on Wednesday hiked its interest rate to 1%, and the Bank of England followed by raising its interest rate to 1% a day later.
Technical View: If gold buyers manage to hold above the 200-SMA support, then the road to recovery could challenge the bear at $1,886. The next significant resistance is pegged at the $1,900 round level, above which the rising wedge upper barrier at $1,912 will be probed.
Alternate Scenario: Break below the above mentioned (wedge) trend line support at $1,872 will validate the bearish continuation formation. A retest of the three-month low of $1,850 will be on the probable side.
What 1 hr chart says ?Fundamental Descriptions: Gold Price is capitalizing on an overdue correction in the US dollar, as the Fed poured cold water on aggressive tightening bets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explicitly said Wednesday that the US central bank is not considering a 75 bps rate hike in June, sounding a less hawkish tone than markets had expected. Powell also appealed to Americans struggling with high inflation to be patient while policymakers take the hard measures to bring it under control. Gold, which is often perceived as a hedge against rising costs, jumped 1% in the previous session on Powell's statement. U.S. Treasury yields also fell sharply on Wednesday, boosting the yellow metal.
Technical View: As of writing, gold was trading between S1 and S2. We may see it to make a another bull run towards 1920 , a support turned resistance in our chart.
Alternate Scenario: Any failed bull attempt may drag down the prices of gold back to the level of 1880.
