Brian – Gold game plan for the US sessionBrian – Gold game plan for the US session
Gold’s rally yesterday shook a lot of traders out of position – the move was slow, steady and unforgiving, making it hard both to get in and to get out. For now, the short-term trend is clearer on H1, while H4 is still in transition.
Fundamental view – the Fed is confusing everyone
Fed expectations for December have been on a roller-coaster:
The market went from pricing a 25 bp cut in December at over 90%,
Then collapsed those odds to below 30%,
And has now swung sharply back again – all within about a month.
That kind of violent repricing in rate expectations usually creates two things for gold:
underlying support as soon as the market believes in easier policy again, and
choppy two-way volatility around each new data print or Fed comment.
So the macro backdrop still leans supportive for gold, but you do not want to ignore intraday whipsaws.
Technical view – H1 bullish, H4 testing the top of structure
On the H4 chart:Price is trading above the rising medium-term trendline from late October, keeping the broader structure constructive as long as 4,000 holds.
We are now pushing up towards the descending trendline and a H4 supply/FVG band between roughly 4,160 and 4,200.
Higher up sits a larger FVG / resistance block around 4,280–4,330 – if price ever accepts above the current downtrend line, that zone becomes a realistic upside magnet.
On H1:Structure is clearly bullish with higher highs and higher lows after yesterday’s impulsive move.
The current leg is extended, so I prefer to buy dips into support or a clean retest, rather than chase at the top of the candle.
Core bias: still prefer buys with the trend. Shorts are tactical, only at clear reaction zones.
Key levels
Resistance / sell zones
4,167–4,169: short-term reaction zone at the descending trendline and FVG
4,200–4,220: upper part of the same supply area
4,280–4,330: major H4 FVG / supply above
Support / buy zones
4,110–4,113: intraday support and potential retest area
4,080–4,070: minor support from recent consolidation
4,040–4,020: deeper pullback zone
4,000: key structural support; a break here would damage the bullish case
3,884: level that would confirm a medium-term bearish shift if price breaks and holds below
Trade scenarios (reference only, not financial advice)
Scenario 1 – Primary long: buy the dip into 4,110
Idea: stay with the bullish H1 structure, use the first decent pullback to get a better entry.
Entry: 4,110–4,113
Stop: 4,105
Targets: 4,125 → 4,140 → 4,180 → 4,200
I want to see price pull back into this zone after a push higher, ideally with a rejection wick or bullish candle confirming buyers are still in control.
Scenario 2 – Tactical short: fade the trendline at 4,167–4,169
Idea: counter-trend scalp from a clean confluence of resistance and FVG.
Entry: 4,167–4,169
Stop: 4,175
Targets: 4,155 → 4,140 → 4,120 → 4,105
This is not a swing short – it is a tactical trade against the intraday trend. Size should be smaller, and I would look to lock in profit or move to breakeven quickly if price reacts in our favour.
Scenario 3 – Breakout long if the trendline gives way
If gold pushes through the descending trendline and holds above the 4,170–4,180 zone:
I will shift back to a breakout-continuation mindset, looking to buy pullbacks above the broken trendline.
The next upside magnets then become 4,220 first and eventually the 4,280–4,330 FVG.
As long as 4,000 holds, I respect the upside and prefer to position with the trend, not against it. If we ever see a daily close below 4,000 and then 3,884, the whole story flips and I’ll start treating rallies as selling opportunities.
Trade the structure in front of you, not the headline noise. Manage risk around the shifting Fed expectations, and let the levels do the heavy lifting.
If this breakdown helps with your game plan, follow Brian for more gold updates during the US session and drop your own view in the comments so we can compare scenarios.
Long
