XAU/USD Medium-Term Breakdown: Market Structure Shift Confirmed!Gold has officially entered a bearish phase after decisively breaking below a key high-volume support zone around $3225, which now flips into a major resistance level. This wasn’t a minor flush — it was a clean structural break that reflects deeper underlying weakness.
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Key Technical Highlights:
1. HVZ Breakdown – The Trend Flip Signal
The HVZ (High Volume Zone) at ~$3,165 was acting as a base where buyers previously absorbed sell pressure. But the recent breakdown with strong bearish candles confirms that buyers have lost control Still watch today close may15 -2025. Price attempted to hover above it for several sessions, but once it gave in, the breakdown was swift — signaling a shift in control from bulls to bears.
Now, any bounce back into the 3,150–3,165 range is likely to meet aggressive selling — this has now become a sell zone, not a support.
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2. 3111 – The Last Stand for Bulls
The current trading region — around $3,111 —3120 is the final line of defense for buyers. This zone was an earlier demand pocket and acted as the origin of the strong April rally. If bulls can hold this, we may see short-term relief or a retest of HVZ.
But if this zone fails, especially on a candle close with volume, it would trigger another wave of liquidation, as this region is structurally thin and lacks strong historical support.
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3. Projected Path – The Final Flush to $3,014–3,000
Once the 3111 level is broken, gold opens up downside space to the $3,014–3,000 zone — which is the final target as marked on the chart.
This zone is significant for three reasons:
• It marks the origin of the April bullish move.
• It’s a historical accumulation block.
• Psychological round number ($3,000) often acts as magnet for liquidity grabs or rebounds.
It’s also where institutional buyers may reappear to attempt a reversal, provided macro conditions align.
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Momentum & Behavior:
The current momentum favors the bears:
• Lower highs, lower lows are in place.
• Failed breakout attempts above $3,240 only strengthened bearish intent.
• Breakdown below HVZ happened with conviction — not a fakeout.
Also, notice the slow grinding nature of the recent move. This isn’t panic selling, it’s a controlled liquidation, which often leads to a final flush, then sharp bounce — especially if macro triggers (like rate cuts or Fed dovishness) hit the news cycle.
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Conclusion:
• Bias: Medium-term bearish
• Invalidation: Only above $3240 reclaim with volume
• Key Levels:
• Resistance: 3,165
• Pivot: 3,111
• Target: 3,014 / 3,000 zone
The safest approach now? Sell the bounces, not the dips — unless you’re playing the final drop scalps with tight risk.
