GOLD ON 17TH MAY 2024Current Market Situation
Gold prices have been experiencing a bullish trend, recently approaching the resistance zone of 2397-2400. This movement is significant as it indicates a potential test of this critical resistance level.
Scenario 1: Immediate Upward Movement
In the first scenario, gold continues its upward trajectory and tests the 2397-2400 resistance zone. This scenario is plausible due to several factors:
Global Economic Uncertainty: Ongoing economic uncertainties, including inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating interest rates, often drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold.
Weakening Dollar: A weaker US dollar makes gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thus increasing demand and pushing prices higher.
Technical Indicators: Technical analysis may show bullish signals such as rising moving averages or positive momentum indicators, supporting the case for an immediate test of the resistance zone.
If gold successfully breaches the 2397-2400 resistance, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, potentially leading to new highs.
Scenario 2: Retracement to 2370 Before Rising
In the second scenario, gold experiences a retracement to 2370 before resuming its upward movement. This scenario can occur due to the following reasons:
Profit-Taking: After a significant rise, investors may take profits, causing a temporary pullback in prices.
Technical Resistance: The 2397-2400 zone may act as a strong resistance, leading to a short-term correction as the market digests recent gains.
Market Sentiment: Changes in market sentiment, such as positive economic data or policy shifts, could cause a brief decline in gold prices.
If gold finds support at 2370 and holds, it would likely attract buyers looking for an entry point, leading to a rebound and another attempt to test the 2397-2400 resistance zone.
Strategic Implications
For traders and investors, both scenarios offer potential opportunities:
Scenario 1: A break above 2397-2400 could be seen as a buying signal, with potential for further gains.
Scenario 2: A pullback to 2370 could be an opportunity to buy at a lower level, anticipating a rebound.
Risk management is crucial in both scenarios, with stop-loss orders and position sizing helping to mitigate potential losses.
Conclusion
Gold's price movement is influenced by a complex interplay of economic factors, technical indicators, and market sentiment. Monitoring these elements closely will be essential for making informed trading decisions. Whether gold continues to rise immediately or retraces to 2370 before moving up, both scenarios present potential trading opportunities in the current market environment.
Goldsignals
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In GOLD we got weekly BUY CHOCH @01dec2023 (in Daily we got buy BOS)
And we got a HEAD AND SHOULDER formation @28dec2023(Daily)
1st buy correction 4H- sell CHOCH @17jan2024
2nd 4H-sell BOS @13feb2024
now the market @ 50% fibo of weekly of that sub-swing
In here we got 2 entry
2029(flip entry)
2031-2035 is the main sell entry
We took this entry bcz of our strategy works here..
IF THIS CROSS 2044
Next strong zone will be 2054(Flip entry)-2064(main entry)
i think it will RED ROSE soon
bcz 2044.5 is the H&S -trendline retracement
so this 2029-2032-2035 entry will be more strong one for sell
Targets based H&S (head top to neckline)
1st target 1986
2nd 38% target 1975
3rd 50% target 1950
4th 100% target 1860
BECARE FUL
DAILY sell CHOCH will be 1973 if cross and close down then only sell trend will be confirm in daily
XAUUSD_ Analysis August 28, GOLD has vitality again⚡️In a speech at the central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said inflation remains too high even with recent favorable figures and that the US central bank has room to substantial basis to regain price stability. But at the same time, Powell noted that economic uncertainty calls for "aggressive" monetary policymaking and that the Fed will proceed "with caution" when deciding on its next policy move.
⚡️Powell's message on Friday was in line with mixed signals from other Fed officials in the run-up to the meeting. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker told CNBC he doubted the central bank would need to raise rates again, but also said he wasn't ready to predict when rate cuts might begin. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Yahoo Finance's video channel that interest rates could be near or at their peak, "but could certainly increase further."
⚡️Plan: BUY XAUUSD price 1907-1909. SL 1903. TP 1915, 1920
OLD, an technical insight for the coming week 21.08.2023Gold Analysis for the Upcoming Week on MCX, India
Date: 20th August 2023, 18:03 hours
Technical Overview:
Recent Performance: From 8th May to today's date, gold prices have witnessed a significant decline of approximately 5.49%.
Moving Averages: The gold price has recently breached the 50-day moving average, which stands at 58,980. The 200-day moving average looms at 57,586. The cross below the 50-day indicates a bearish momentum in the short term.
Potential Move: If gold price approaches the 200-day moving average of 57,586, there's potential for further downside towards 56,048.
Oscillators: The asset is currently in an oversold condition, which can sometimes indicate a potential rebound. The optimistic signals stand at D: 6.54 and K: 3.21.
MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still hinting at a bearish scenario, suggesting continued negative momentum.
Fisher & Percentage R: Both indicators are positioned at the lower end, hinting at a potential bearish continuation.
Fibonacci Levels: Post touching a low at the Fibonacci level of 57,653, gold made an upward move and attempted to break above the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 59,751 twice between July and August. However, it failed to sustain this and reversed its direction, breaking past the 0.382 and 0.236 levels. Current trajectory points towards a retest of the 57,653 level.
Target Price for the Week: Considering the above technical factors and absence of any significant strategic updates from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, our projected target price for gold in the near term stands at 57,612.
Disclaimer: This analysis does not provide any specific trading or investment recommendation. It is essential to note that the movements in gold prices can be significantly influenced by various macroeconomic factors and announcements from the Federal Reserve. Always consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Disclosure: We do not have any vested interest in the gold market We may or may or maynot be having positions in the gold. This analysis is purely based on technical indicators and past market data.
GOLD - Quickly catch the rebound of goldThis morning's gold price continued to increase by 16.7 USD compared to yesterday's closing level to 1,936.5 USD/ounce, the gold price reached its highest level in three weeks.
The US Employment Turnover (JOLTS) report and consumer confidence index were much lower than expected, spurring fresh buying demand for the precious metal.
Gold prices continue to maintain a solid recovery but there is still a potential risk that it will be lower in the near future because this week there is still a lot of economic news that strongly affects Gold prices.
GOLD - Scalping StrategyGold prices slightly extended its gains and successfully continued a third day of gains.
TVC:GOLD hovers around $1,900/oz during the Asian session on Wednesday, showing signs of recovery from four consecutive weeks of losses despite a firmer US Dollar (USD).
However, a stronger recovery is unlikely at the moment.
After days of continuous decline, gold finally showed signs of changing the trend. At first, we can look at the problem as follows:
1. Economic data in the US is showing signs of getting better
2. Inflation may not reach the target of the Fed, but it can also be called cooled down
3. The economic data is giving clearer evidence of the US economic scenario will have a soft landing if the FED is ready to QE after this period.
=> From the above points, I think that Gold is still in a downtrend, and this rally may not be as strong as expected.
You can set up sell order at price zone 1905-1907 SL 1913 TP 1900,1895
Inflation Cools, Gold Heats Up Inflation Cools, Gold Heats Up
In June, the United States inflation fell to 3%, which is the lowest since March 2021. This was slightly below the market's expectations of 3.1% and a significant decline from May's rate of 4%. Additionally, the core inflation rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.8%, marking its lowest level since October 2021.
The implication of this deceleration is that it could prompt the Federal Reserve to scale back its plans for interest rate hikes. With inflation showing signs of cooling, the central bank may now be inclined to raise rates only once more throughout the remainder of the year.
In the wake of the inflation report gold prices shot up, soaring by more than 1.3%. The metal breached the $1,940 resistance level but fell just short of clearing the $1,960 overhead barrier. If further upward momentum materializes, it could pave the way for a potential retest of $1,975 and $1,980.
At the same time, the US dollar faced a steep decline, sinking to its lowest point in over 14 months. Against the Swiss franc, it tumbled to depths not witnessed since early 2015, settling at 0.8673 francs, down 1.4%. Earlier in the session, it even touched 0.8660, marking its weakest position since the Swiss National Bank abandoned the Swiss currency peg back in January 2015. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar hits a six-week low of 138.47 yen, witnessing a 1.4% decline. Additionally, the US dollar weakens by more than 1.5% against the New Zealand and Australian dollars. Conversely, the euro surges to its highest level since March last year, reaching $1.1125. The Euro trades up 1.2% at $1.113.
GOLD LONG IDEAGOLD ANALYSIS:
GOLD has been one of the most considered safe havens against the fall of the USD.
Most investors turned to consider GOLD as a safe haven due to the following factors:
The CORE PCE fall as expected on Friday where which indicates that FED will not put more effort into tightening since the stubborn inflation is coming close to the target.
FED may pause rate hikes this year (2023) because inflation is on hand and coming closer to the target which is 2%.
Technically and for the longer term GOLD is bearish however the current bullish waves gave room for us to closely look at important zones where we have 1893.
The price has bounced from the area level now 1893 and 1911.722 because traders found the area as 61.8 Retracement of the current high around 1922.689, hence there may be a correction from this level back to 1904.293 which will definitely be our entry zone.
Technically GOLD turns bullish for the short term where an inverted H&S formed and its neckline was broken above, our entry for the broken neckline of inverted H&S will exactly be the same level of 61.8 Retracement level of the current high which is 1904.770.
XAUUSD 28/06: Where does Gold go after Fed Speaks?OANDA:XAUUSD The US dollar benefited from a fresh rise in US Treasury yields, sending gold prices plunging.
Amid increased hawkish sentiment around the Fed rate outlook, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech later Wednesday.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting that gold's downside risks remain.
So, the nearest support is at $1,908, a breakout of which will open exchanges towards $1,900. Going further, $1,886 will be the limit for Gold buyers (March 15 low).
On the other hand, a strong resistance is seen near the $1930 area, above which $1944. The next relevant upside target is seen at the psychological $1950 level.
You might consider Selling gold around 1943 – 1940
And my goal will be 1933 – 1920
You might consider Buying gold around 1902 – 1905
And my goal will be 1908 – 1922
Note: Fully install TP, SL to prioritize safety in trading and conquering the market.