XAUUSD – LANA | Sell 4190–4194 and Buy 4100–4102 | 04/12 ...XAUUSD – LANA | Sell 4190–4194 and Buy 4100–4102 | 04/12
1. Fundamental Analysis
The current market sentiment is dominated by concerns about a global economic slowdown.
In a recession cycle, bond yields in the US and Europe tend to fall faster than in Japan, as these regions still have more room for rate cuts.
This results in:
A narrowing yield spread, causing USD/JPY carry trades to unwind.
Increased risk-off sentiment, pushing money back into JPY and safe-haven assets like gold.
If risk aversion strengthens further, USD/JPY may experience sharp declines rather than a slow drop.
Such volatility in the currency market often triggers strong swings in gold as well, providing better liquidity zones to trade — instead of chasing price at unfavourable levels.
2. Technical Analysis
On the H1 chart, gold is currently being squeezed between two major trendlines:
Upper descending trendline: drawn from the 4,245–4,260 highs, indicating sellers are active whenever price touches this line.
Lower ascending trendline: extending from the previous month’s low, acting as support for the medium-term uptrend.
Key zones on the chart:
Timing zone 4190–4194:
Near the descending trendline + previous volume cluster.
This is Lana’s preferred short-term Sell zone.
Buy zone at POC – VAL (Volume Profile):
A price area where strong trading activity occurred previously — potential buying interest if price corrects deeper.
Buy Liquidity Zone 4100–4102:
Located just above the major ascending trendline.
An attractive liquidity zone for trend-continuation buys if the market flushes downward.
Summary:
Price may first retrace to 4190–4194 and weaken from there.
If price drops to 4100–4102 and holds the ascending trendline, this becomes a solid area to consider buying again.
3. Key Price Levels to Watch
Resistance / Sell zone: 4190 – 4194
Invalidation for Sell (wide SL zone): 4219 – 4231 Support / Buy zone: 4100 – 4102
SL options for Buy setup: 4081 – 4063 – 4045 (depending on individual risk appetite)
4. Trade Scenarios
⭐ Short-Term Sell Setup
Sell entry: 4190 – 4194 SL: 4219 – 4231 TP: 4181 – 4155
⭐ Deep Buy Setup (Trend-Following)
Buy entry: 4100 – 4102 SL: 4081 – 4063 – 4045
