Geopolitical Tensions Keep Gold Bid Macro & Fundamental Context
Escalating geopolitical risks, ongoing regional conflicts, and rising political uncertainty continue to drive risk-off sentiment across global markets.
In this environment:
The USD shows mixed reactions as demand for safety competes with expectations of policy flexibility.
Gold remains structurally supported as capital rotates into safe-haven assets amid uncertainty.
As long as global tensions remain unresolved, downside moves in Gold are likely to be corrective rather than trend-breaking.
Technical Structure (H1)
Gold remains in a bullish market structure, confirmed by multiple BOS (Break of Structure).
The current pullback is unfolding into stacked Fair Value Gaps (FVG) — a typical rebalancing phase in an uptrend.
No confirmed bearish structure break at this stage.
Key Price Zones
Intraday Resistance: 4,581
Upper FVG: 4,569.369
Mid FVG: 4,545.716 – 4,535.432
Deep FVG / Structure Support: 4,512.551
Scenarios (If – Then)
Scenario 1 – Bullish Rebalance
If price holds above 4,535.432 – 4,512.551, expect buyers to step in.
A recovery above 4,581 would reopen the path toward 4,620+.
Scenario 2 – Deeper Liquidity Sweep
A deeper pullback into 4,512.551 is still acceptable within the bullish structure.
Only a clear H1 close below 4,512.551 would weaken the bullish bias.
Summary
Gold is reacting to global uncertainty, not just technicals.
As long as geopolitical risks persist, buy-the-dip remains the dominant mindset.
Risk-off flows favor Gold.
Structure defines the bias.
