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Simple Trade Setup | HDFCAMC | 27-12-2021 [ INTRADAY]NSE:HDFCAMC Observations: 1) On 1 week time frame, we can see that immediate resistance level is at 2400 and immediate major support is at 2250-2256 level range. Please refer below chart : 1 week Time Frame. 2) On Daily time frame, it is still trading below 200 and 400DMA. Please refer below chart : 1 day Time Frame. ------------------------------------- Trade Setup for Date: 27-12-2021 1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action. 2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand. 3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level. 4) Avoid gap up or gap down chase. Wait and trade between levels. Please refer below chart for levels. Hope I made it easy to understand it. Do comment your doubt or suggestion. Note: Trade with Strict SL. It may or may not hit all the levels. So one can book profit / loss at respective level considering how price action works near that level.
NSE:HDFCAMC
by Trading_hawk
Data Drievn Analysis of Nifty and Bank Nifty for w/e 24-12-21DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS OF NIFTY & BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK ENDING 24-12-21 This is a new weekly post/series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post is supported by a video that takes you through the details of how I have arrived at the analysis. I encourage you to view the video as well since not everything can be captured in a document form. I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week. Important - Although the markets are very hard to predict in the short term, the main issue presently faced is that even on an intraday basis, the markets have been extremely volatile. This may impact the traders who trade on an intraday basis. If you are one such trader, please be careful and assign top most priority to risk management. BANK NIFTY The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month. EOD on 1-12-21 = 36364 EOD on 24-12-21 = 34857 up by -1507 points or -4.14% from 1-12-21 The highest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 35477 on 23-12-21 The lowest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 34018 on 20-12-21 Difference Highest - Lowest = 1459 points or 4.29% from the lowest level In the last one week, Bank Nifty has made a downward move of 761 points or 2.14% which is in continuation of the earlier week’s bearish sign. NIFTY The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month. EOD on 1-12-21 = 17166 EOD on 24-12-21 = 17003 down by 163 points or 0.95% from 1-12-21 The highest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 17155.60 on 24-12-21 The lowest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 16410 on 27-12-21 Difference Highest - Lowest = 745 points or 4.54% from the lowest level In the last one week Nifty has made an up move of 18 points or 0.11% which potentially indicates a slowing down of selling pressure. FII - DII DATA: DEC 2021 FIIs = -33,271 Crores DIIs = 26.405 Crores Net is = -6,866 Crores There has been a slow down in the severity of selling by FII which may be attributable to the year end holidays and or a potential shift in their strategy. Only time will tell us what is the truth. Conclusion: On 24-12, FIIs have turned net sellers though by a mere 44 Crores. This is an unusual sight. When FIIs turn net sellers generally DIIs keep buying and when DIIs turn net sellers, FIIs buy. This has been the approach - the key point is whether this is likely to happen or DIIs may also join hands in the sell-off. SGX Nifty is as of the end of the week indicating a flat close and the UIS markets would open only on 27-12 after 24-12 holiday so the true feel of the sentiment would be known only on 28-12. BANK NIFTY In the sharp sell-off, the HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBIN, and Kotak Bank were brutally hammered and these have heavy weights on the index moves. Whereas ICICI Bank and to some extent SBIN have somewhat recovered, HDFC Bank, and Kotak Bank have failed to hold on to the higher levels. They have witnessed selling pressure - HDFC Bank below 1460 and Kotak Bank below 1790-1800. Unless these 2 banks clear the hard lines, Bank Nifty is likely to remain volatile having the path of least resistance on the downside. NIFTY The IT big neads and other IT heads of the Nifty 50 pack have helped Nifty throughout the week in getting back up from the valley of 16400. HDFC and Reliance are the biggest troubles for Nifty as these two have dragged Nifty by the collar and brought down. In addition to the above, the weakness in Bank Nifty as explained above has been an issue and would remain and Nifty may find it hard even if it goes up, to sustain and close the days in the coming week at higher levels. 17250+ on Nifty and 36000+ on Bank Nifty need to be held on to for a couple of days for the indices to have any chance of a good restoration of the bullish sentiment. Until then, even on a declining India Vix, the real volatility and choppiness on an intraday basis is more likely to continue. Here is the video link: Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets! And therefore, I have the right to be wrong on either side as no one can predict the moves. Happy Trading/Investing! Umesh 25-12-21
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Bulls struggle, but manage to end Nifty just above 17000NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 24-12-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17149.50 H 17155.60 L 16909.60 C 17003.70 EOD -68.85 points / -0.40% SGX Nifty 24-12-21 @ 1930 = +9 FII DII = + -758 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened with a gap-up of 70+ points, attempted to make a further up move but failed, and then, as usual, there was a sell-off. Nifty lost 200+ points from the day high and breached 17000 with ease. In fact, at one stage, it appeared that the Nifty may well break 16900, but after some time spent around that level, it managed to recover 150+ points. From its day high to day low, Bank Nifty moved a total of 744 points which is a big move when the previous 3 days had ended in the green. In comparison to yesterday, Nifty has made a higher high but a lower low. And Bank Nifty has made a lower high and much lower low which is not a good sign. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 26 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 37 Net = -11 BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 3 Lifters contributed = 0 Top 3 Draggers contributed = 189 Net = -189 POSITIVES Nifty managed to end above 17000. Reliance and IT stocks helped Nifty curtailing incremental negativity. NEGATIVES Bank Nifty looks very weak and has breached 35000 decisively and has been rejecting higher levels consistently. HDFC and Kotak Bank had turned positive yesterday but the two failed to hold on to the area and turned negative and were the lead draggers of the indices. India Vix has gone up. Today even DIIs have turned net sellers. TRADING RANGE FOR 27 DEC 21 Nifty support = 16700-800 Nifty resistance = 17060-17100-150-200-260-300 Bank Nifty Support = 34000-200 Bank Nifty resistance = 35000-200-450-525-600 INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS How time frames play a key role - At 1110h, Nifty closed above 20 MA on 5 Minute charts and Nifty reading was 16955. On the 15 minutes chart, Nifty closed above the 20 MA line at 1345h when Nifty reading was 16986. A gap of 2h15m and barely 30 points move but depending upon what type of a trader you are, you would have benefitted or lost to some extent. It seems that the last 3 days positivity was something that the bulls could not sustain and the bears pulled their might to bring about a sell-off as soon as the market opened. Such was the pressure that the indices made significant moves on the downside with Nifty day low close to 16900 and Bank Nifty day low just below 34600! On my Nifty 5 minute charts, I have drawn several support and resistance lines several days ago. These lines keep getting retested now and then. Most of the time, these get retested on the downside. Today was one such day and Nifty finally halted around the 4th support line. No surprise that India Vix has gone up yet again. Our markets may find it hard to make directional moves on 27-12 as the US markets are observing a holiday on the eve of Christmas. Usually, around 1300h, the market experiences sell-off but today, something unexpected happened and Nifty started a strong and steady recovery and managed to make a high just below the earlier day’s close. This was a refreshing change. Covid cases and Omicron cases have shot up in Europe and US and the markets there are not so negative, but our markets are either discounting the 3rd wave impact in India or are under pressure only because of FII selling. What do you feel about this? Here is the link to the video: Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 24-12-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Indices gain and close higher, are bulls in control?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 23-12-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17066.80 H 17118.65 L 17015.55 C 17072.60 EOD +117.15 points / +0.69% SGX Nifty 23-12-21 @ 1855 = +23 FII DII = + Not yet available CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened with a gap-up of 100 points and as usual, there was a mini sell-off. It then bounced back from above 17000 and then made attempts to cross 17100 but met with resistance and then faded. This time it moved closer to 17000 but again found support and crossed 17100 but the customary 1300h selling coupled with expiry day volatility ensured that it remained volatile and finally ended well below 17100. The overall movement was range bound within 100+ points, however, the India Vix gives a different view as it has fallen. Nifty and Bank Nifty have made a higher high and a higher low. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 671 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 14 Net = +53 BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 3 Lifters contributed = 151 Top 3 Draggers contributed = 27 Net = +124 POSITIVES Bank Nifty and Nifty together have closed above key psycho levels of 35000 and 17000 respectively. Bajaj twins have chosen to be the lifters today and the bounce back in HDFC and Kotak Bank is a good sight as these two have remained under pressure for the last few days. Infosys has closed at a new ATH and has helped Nifty in the last few sessions. NEGATIVES Reliance, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank ended in the red despite the overall positivity. Their inability to sustain at higher levels is not a good sign for the bulls. Higher levels in Indices appear to be attracting sellers. TRADING RANGE FOR 23 DEC 21 Nifty support = 16700-800 revised upwards considering the fact the low for the day was above 17000. Nifty resistance = 17100-200-260-300 Bank Nifty Support = 34500-800 Bank Nifty resistance = 35500-700-800 INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS Nifty OHLC above 17000 and Bank Nifty OHLC above 35000. This is refreshingly different and a positive sign. The key is to end the week in this manner. Even though the indices have ended up, the extent of movement is not wide enough as compared to yesterday. This could either mean that the indices are consolidating on the way up or are facing hard resistance at higher levels. We have experienced many times that the indices tend to give a feeling that they are unstable but then end up moving up higher over a period of a few days leaving many retailers who may be waiting for the right opportunity. That is why it is best to keep partially adding to the portfolio holdings at good levels. 1 There is a sudden spike in the Covid cases in Mumbai and that is not a good sign. This along with Omicron cases may weigh in on the indices should the situation worsen. It is better to be cautious for now. What do you feel about this? Here is the link to the video: Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 23-12-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Is Nifty getting ready to end this week above 17000?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 22-12-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 16865.55 H 16971.00 L 16819.55 C 16955.45 EOD +184.60 points / +1.10% SGX Nifty 22-12-21 @ 1835 = +12 FII DII = +770 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened with a good gap-up and then shot up to cross 16900 for some time and then sold-off as usual. It then recovered in a slow paced market with some amount of choppiness and never looked back to retest the lows. It rose almost 100 points in the final hour even though FTSE was showing a somewhat negative bias. Nifty has made a higher high and a higher low. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 101 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 9 Net = +92 BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 3 Lifters contributed = 318 Top 3 Draggers contributed = 4 Net = +314 POSITIVES Bank Nifty ended above 35000 is a good sign and Nifty managed to close above 16950 is also a good sign. Reliance, SBI, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Bank are looking better than what they were a couple of sessions back. This would impact the sentiment positively and help steady the indices. The positive sentiment was prevalent was mostly throughout the market with almost 70% of the NSE scrips for which the Advance-Decline ratio is worked out showing a positive close. NEGATIVES HDFC continues to show weakness at higher levels and as a result even HDFC Bank seems to have been impacted as unlike yesterday, it ended on a muted close. 16985-17000 is a hard line to cross. TRADING RANGE FOR 23 DEC 21 Nifty support = 16600-700 revised upwards considering the fact the low for the day was 16800+. Nifty resistance = 16985-17000-17050-17100-200 INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS Though the last 2 sessions have ended in good green, on a closing basis, Nifty is still below the 17-12-21 level. This is therefore likely to play out as the beginning of a tough line of resistance. Despite a weak FTSE, our indices ended in good green which is a surprise considering the fact that the tendency so far has been to be sold off as and when FTSE is in the red. Maybe there is something that is likely to unfold tomorrow in the opening hour. Bank Nifty was 421 points of which 318 were from SBIN, ICICI Bank, and Kotk Bank. It is good to see SBI and Kotak Bank turning in as positive contributors. Now only HDFC Bank should remain non negative for the index to move up. What do you feel about this? Here is the link to the video: Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 22-12-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Bulls unable to hold on, yet indices end in greenNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 21-12-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 16773.15 H 16936.40 L 16688.25 C 16770.85 EOD +248.15 points / -0.94% SGX Nifty 21-12-21 @ 1930 = +25 FII DII = Not yet available CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened with a significant gap up and was able to sustain the same and kept moving up as the day progressed. However, it then became obvious around 16940 levels where there is an earlier intraday resistance that the bears may not let the rally continue. And at 1300h, that is what happened and the sell-off continued and almost threatened to wipe out all the gains. Finally, in the last hour Nifty managed to recover well and ended in the green. Nifty has made a higher high and a higher low. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 60 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 16 Net = +44 BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 3 Lifters contributed = 246 Top 3 Draggers contributed = 95 Net = +151 POSITIVES Both the indices ended the day in green. HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank were the leaders in lifting the indices and remained positive throughout. Reliance also joined these two in helping Nifty not give up all the gains that had been made in the first half of the day. NEGATIVES The manner in which the indices fell in the PM session indicates that there are large sell orders around 16900-950 and it is unlikely that the bears would give up the territory that easily. HDFC, SBIN, and Kotak Bank remain the problem scrips for the bulls as these are the scrips where every rise seems to be getting sold in to. TRADING RANGE FOR 22 DEC 21 Nifty support = 16300-400 Nifty resistance = 16800-900-950-17000 INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS For the 2nd in a row, Nifty OHLC was below 17000. This is an unusual sight in recent times. This also shows that the bears have not yet given up and any rally is likely to get sold into unless there is ferocity in the up move which was not seen on the horizon today. Whenever FIIs are the net sellers on the previous day and Nifty is trading with a significant gap up and the same is held on to, it would be safe to expect a sell-off in the PM session followed by a recovery which may not be full. Catching the last set of bears off guard and just when they have covered their shorts and switched to longs, comes the sharp sell-off which shakes the new longs out and before they can decide to re-enter, the fall is recovered in no time. So it is necessary for traders to be better Mentalists than good traders as only such people would be able to go with the flow. Yesterday’s massive fall was attributed to global Omicron fears even as India is for now better placed than the rest of the world. I am wondering what media would attribute the positivity in global indices to? Is Omicron gone? If we remove such noise, market moves and numbers would make better sense. And here is my latest tweet about an observation made: What do you feel about this? Here is the video link – Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 21-12-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Christmas Sale in On! Will it be Bears or Bulls all the way fromNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 20-12-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 16824.25 H 16840.10 L 16410.20 C 16614.20 EOD -371 points / -2.18% SGX Nifty 20-12-21 @ 1900h = +25 FII DII = -801 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened with a significant gap down and from there it never looked back and kept drifting and fell 400 points further from the opening level. It appeared that the leakage is unlikely to be stopped as there was hardly any buying taking place. Finally, around 1300h, either the shorters chose to cover or the bulls stepped in and the index managed to crawl and stumble upwards and ended above 16600. Nifty has thus breached all important levels on the way down and made lower highs and lower lows. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 10 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 160 Net = -150 BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 3 Lifters contributed = 00 Top 3 Draggers contributed = 778 Net = -778 POSITIVES I am not sure why Cipla and Dr Reddy’s bounced up - if the up move was on account of Omicron, it is not good in the overall interest of the markets. The only other consolation was that 16400 on Nifty and 34000 on Bank Nifty were not breached. NEGATIVES There is no dearth of negatives today so I better restrict the same as follows: For Nifty – Reliance and HDFC twins were the pain points. For Bank Nifty - HDFC Bank, SBIN, and ICICI Bank were the pain points. TRADING RANGE FOR 21 DEC 21 I did not expect this kind of paper support levels on the charts and I am not sure whether I will be able to draw any lines tomorrow as well. So let us wait and watch how this plays out. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS Bank Nifty has clearly underperformed to Nifty as it is down more than 3% on EOD basis. This is a significant fall and was responsible for the turmoil in the markets today as well. On an EOD basis, Bank Nifty is down 1178 points of which 778 have been contributed by HDFC Bank, SBIN, and ICICI Bank. This itself shows what would have been the intensity of the selling pressure. With today’s fall, the much awaited Santa Claus rally has turned into a Christmas Sale on a Red Monday! We have been pushed back by a few months by the price action in the last 2-3 sessions in particular. The India Vix is significantly high and the moves remind me of the Mar 2020 type of price action where the indices used simply drift at market open. And here is my latest tweet on the Big Daddy of the Moving Averages: What do you feel about this? Here is the video link – Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 20-12-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Bank Nifty under pressure, will it breakdown? NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 15-12-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17373.00 H 17379.35 L 17184.95 C 17248.40 EOD +27 points / +0.16% SGX Nifty 16-12-21 @ 1840h = +14 FII DII = +65 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened with a strong gap-up and made attempts to hold on to the higher terrain, but as usual, the selling pressure was so intense that it fell more than 100 points in a matter of an hour or so. It then made an attempt to rally towards 17300 but could not hit the level and then again it fell but this time it broke 17200. It rallied once again but this time made a lower high and then again fell sharply and broke 17190 as well. Finally, the expiry actions lifted Nifty as Reliance also crossed 2400 and Nifty ended just above the previous close. In the process, Nifty has made a higher high but a lower low. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 53 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 23 Net = +30 BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 3 Lifters contributed = 01 Top 3 Draggers contributed = 189 Net = -188 POSITIVES Reliance ended above 2400 and Infosys also moved up despite the adverse market conditions. NEGATIVES ICICI Bank was under pressure possibly on account of the penalty news and that is what dragged the sentiment on the downside. Even during the day, ICICI Bank was very choppy - moving up and down within a narrow range. HDFC continues to be hammered with every rise. Kotak Bank hit 1890 and from there fell more than 1% to end at 1860. This also impacted the indices a lot. The indices are now becoming vulnerable to a couple of leaders or laggards and this is not a good sign in my opinion. TRADING RANGE FOR 17 Dec 21 Nifty Support = In view of the continued selling pressure, I move down the supports to 17050-100. Should this break, 16750-850 may open up as a support. Nifty resistance = 17300-380-400-450-500. Bank Nifty Support = 36000-200-500 Bank Nifty resistance = 36700-850-37000 INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS The Intense and hard hammering of key support levels with relative ease and that too many times during a short period of time is not a good sign. It appears that Bank Nifty may crumble under such pressure. Reliance and Infosys salvaged Nifty and it appears that the bulls have clearly lost the grip on how to firmly grip the markets. Though FTSE was strongly positive our indices just ignored the fact as if we are in a different league. Or there's something that I am not able to understand that is happening in the market. The Bank of England has hiked the interest rates and FTSE is now up almost 1%. What was expected from the Fed has been actioned by the UK regulator and our indices caught cold. Yesterday, I had mentioned how the markets could open today. Here is the link to my tweet posted in the morning: What do you feel about this? Here is the video link – Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 16-12-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Indices fall significantly amidst increased volatilityNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 13-12-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17619.10 H 17639.50 L 17355.95 C 17368.25 EOD -143.50 points / -0.82% SGX Nifty 13-12-21 @ 1920h = -8 points FII DII = -1392 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened with a good gap-up, made efforts to consolidate above 17600, but failed to do so and broke 17600. And then, the usual sell-off started but in a slow-paced manner as it drifted towards lower levels. Soon after noon, Nifty fell 70+ points in a matter of 5 minutes and that changed the hopes of a close around the close of 10-12. Nifty has now made a higher high but somehow managed to make a lower low as well. This is quite an unusual situation in a market that is trying to restore its direction towards the beginning of the bull market line. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 16 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 88 Net = -72 BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 3 Lifters contributed = 57 Top 3 Draggers contributed = 189 Net = -132 POSITIVES Axis Bank is the only leading scrip which is standing tall on a day when the indices have reversed the gains made in the last few sessions There is nothing more that can be stated as a positive. NEGATIVES Nifty ended below 17400 and Bank Nifty ended below 37000 - what was a positive for the 10-12 session is now the negative - so support has become a resistance. India Vix has once again moved up leading to increased volatility. The top lifters of Nifty and Bank Nifty could barely contribute which is not a good sign at all. FII DII data is net negative. TRADING RANGE FOR 14 Dec 21 Nifty Support = 17200-300 may well be the new base. Nifty resistance = 17400-450-500-550-600 on a closing basis. Bank Nifty Support = 36200-500-800 Bank Nifty resistance = 37000-200-500-700 INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS Many were elated as SGX ended the last week above 17600 and the spot opened in our market at 17619 so many long positions would have been created in line with the positive global cues and US markets also closing on a high. However, that would have been short lived since in line with what has now become the norm, the sell-off began and on the first day of the week, it was quite intense. Many of the traders may have been trapped as Nifty kept breaking supports with ease and in slow paced market moves. Bank Nifty seems to have a lot of soft corners for 36800 area as it has visited the surrounding areas many times in the last few sessions. This is yet again indicating that there is inherent weakness in some of the leading scrips which have found comfort in making range bound moves only for now. Bajaj twins from the Nifty pack have become a regular feature in the lifters or laggards. Somehow, they make it a point to appear on and off in these two areas. The range for the day for the tradable indices have more than doubled. This is a good sign for the traders but it has also resulted in increased volatility. Bank Nifty ended 180 points lower but the interesting thing is that the top 3 draggers contributed 132 of these points. What do you feel about this? Here is the video link -- Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 13-12-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Morning Fall, Afternoon bounce back & a flat EODNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 10-12-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17476.05 H 17534.35 L 17405.25 C 17511.30 EOD -5.55 points / -0.03% SGX Nifty 10-12-21 @ 2000h = +46 points FII DII = -706 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened with a mild gap down and then sold off to test 17450 levels and then immediately bounced back and made high for the day and then met with the long standing resistance around 17540 and fell in a gradual manner. In the process it made failed attempts to retest 17500 and then fell further towards 17400. For almost an hour, Nifty could not make u its mind as there was an intense fight going on between the bulls and the bears around 17400 levels. Eventually, bulls managed to win and made a sustained and steady recovery but failed to close above the previous close. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 95 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 93 Net = +2 BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 3 Lifters contributed = 97 Top 3 Draggers contributed = 88 Net = +9 POSITIVES Nifty closed the week above 17500 and Bank Nifty above 37100. This is a good relief after seeing a lot of negativity in the last few days. It is good to see non heavyweight stocks helping Nifty stay neutral and in case of Bank Nifty scrips like IDFC First Bank also putting in a great show. The Advance-Decline ratio is around 60-40 which is good considering the fact that the market was quite choppy especially in the session up to 1300h. NEGATIVES FIIs keep selling and not sure when this is likely to stop. HDFC twins and Kotak Bank kept the indices under pressure throughout the day. Choppiness is prevalent in the market but India Vix is going down. This is a confusing situation and I view it as a negative for the traders. The indices have made a lower high and Bank Nifty has also made a lower low. TRADING RANGE FOR 12-17 Dec 21 Nifty Support = 17200-300 may well be the new base. Nifty resistance = 17550-600-625-700-800 Bank Nifty Support = 36200-500-800 Bank Nifty resistance = 37200-500-700-38000 INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS Here is my tweet posted in the morning related to Bank Nifty: 37000 was fought heavily by the bulls and bears in the last hour yesterday and the bulls just managed to win. Today, the bears did not allow the bulls to take it easy and 37000 became a hard line to sustain. However, today as well, the bulls managed to close the day above 37000 and at 37105 to be precise. This is a positive sign. The first half till 1300h was very choppy for both the indices. India Vix was for sometime in the positive but as the indices started forming intraday base, it started falling. The recovery in indices was welcome, however, premium decays were seen in both the indices even on 37000 and 17500 CEs compared to the previous close as well the EOD prices. I generally like situations where the deputy leader scrip rallies and supports the indices. It shows that as and when the big head is down, the deputy is capable enough to hold the fort. This was the case with TCS which overshadowed Infosys today. What do you feel about this? Here is the video link -- Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 10-12-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
HDFC Bank Seems like Head& Shoulders Pattern(Bearish)If 1560 level Breaks then HDFC bank will fall up to Support level 1530 We cam keep it as 1st TGT & fail to take Support @ 1530 then the 2nd TGT is 1490. >Support will Become Resistance and Resistance will become Support once the level Breaks. *Always Enter With good confirmation & Maintain proper Risk Reward. **********Educational/information purpose only ********** >> Visit My Ideas Page for Daily Stock Analysis, Follow for Live Updates. <<
NSE:HDFCBANK
by Ravitejasreevatsav
2