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Nifty yet again fails to clear 17750 and ends below 17700NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -04-10-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for the upcoming week. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. NIFTY O H L C C - PC H-L VIX FII DII Net Cum Likely Open 4-10-21 17,615.55 17,750.90 17,581.35 17,691.25 159.20 169.55 16.74 860 228 1,088 1,088 Flat to positive CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart The US markets ended the week in good green so it was natural for our indices to open in the green with a gap-up which was quite good and sustained as well. Nifty ended the upside movement as soon as it hit 15750 and for the 4th time in the last few days, it turned around from around 17750 levels. And then, a mini sell-off started and Nifty never recovered from there despite making an attempt to close above 17700. Finally, it settled for the day below 17700. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS RELIANCE 21.00 GRASIM 4.00 BAJAJ FINANCE 19.00 CIPLA 3.00 DIVIS LABS 19.00 HUL 3.00 BAJAJ FINSERV 18.00 IOC 2.00 ICICI BANK 10.00 TITAN 1.00 87.00 13.00 NET 74.00 POSITIVES Nifty closed above the 20 MA line. Nifty ended the day just below 17700. Reliance was firm throughout the day and helped Nifty stay at higher levels. Bank Nifty also managed to close above 37500 levels. VIX has fallen below 18. NEGATIVES Hdfc fell 40+ points from its day high which was at an intraday resistance. Hdfc Bank also failed to hold 1600 levels on a closing basis. TRADING RANGE FOR THE PERIOD 5-8 Oct 21: Nifty - 17400-450 Support is strong for now. Resistances are at 17700-750. BANK NIFTY - 37000-37200 Support and 37800-38000 as the key resistance areas. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS VIX has fallen below 18 indicating limited downside potential, but more sideways movement. Based on my Swing trading process, I bought Larsen & Toubro in 1720 CE when the spot was around 1704. I had to pay 51 for the option. The spot ended the day at 1715.25, up by 11 points, and the Option decayed by 1 point. This was clearly the outcome of a falling VIX and the impact was more than severe in my view. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 4-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTYLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
NIFTY ends the week above 17500NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -01-10-21 Note: I had done a video upload for this analysis, however, for some reason, it failed. NIFTY O H L C C - PC H-L VIX FII DII Net Cum Likely Open 1-10-21 17,531.90 17,557.15 17,452.90 17,532.05 17,532.05 104.25 17.21 131 -613 -482 -482 Flat CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 M Chart Global cues inspired gap-down was severe as it not only meant NIFTY opened below 17600, but it managed to drag NIFTY all the way down to 17450! In all, there were 3 attempts made to recovery and cross 17550 level and all three failed. NIFTY ended at the open price - a Doji pattern indicating indecisiveness as the big bro in the US was not yet awake to guide the family. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS M&M 4.00 BAJAJ FINSERV 19.00 IOC 3.00 BAJAJ FINANCE 17.00 RELIANCE 3.00 HDFC 15.00 JSW STEEL 3.00 ICICI BANK 12.00 HDFC LIFE 3.00 HDFC BANK 11.00 16.00 74.00 LIFTERS - LAGGARDS -58.00 POSITIVES The only saving grace for NIFTY was that RELIANCE ended above 2500 and in the green. This helped NIFTY close above 17500. Similarly, for BANK NIFTY the saving grace is that it ended above 37200. NEGATIVES On an intraday basis, BANK NIFTY broke 37000 without any hesitation. HDFC twins along with BAJAJ twins were in no mood to stay positive and were soaked in negativity. TRADING RANGE FOR THE W/B 4-10-21: Without knowing how US markets end, it may be a bit early to state the levels, but from what it looks like, the following levels may well hold for now: NIFTY 17400-450 Support and plenty of resistances. No point listing them all. Unless Nifty closes above 17750, we will keep witnessing selling pressure. BANK NIFTY - 36500-800 Support and 37500-800-38000 as the key resistance areas. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS What a dampening start to the October series! Considered to be a bullish month, Indices end in red yet again falling in line with the Global cues. Today, I kept the FTSE chart open from the time it opened and the indices moved in line. I am wondering if our markets are so dependent on the global cues that they ignore some of the positives that are available locally? SGX NIFTY @ 1930h +100 points! What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 1-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Was this a staged Closing of the Indices?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -29-09-21 IN SUMMARY OHLC 17,657.95 17,781.75 17,608.15 17,711.30 Close = -37.3 / -0.21% H-L = 174 points VIX 18.84 / +1.61% FII DII: Data not available - likely to be negative. SGX NIFTY @1950h - 17683 / -23 points Likely open: Please read Insights at the end of the post. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart A strong gap-down of 90 points and then there was the usual bounce back to test the opening high and then a sell-off which threatened to go and breach 17600 levels but then came some active buying which resulted in the index recovering in a somewhat choppy way. It was only after 1300h that the index rallied and crossed 17750 and then came another sell-off which brought it below 17700 and then in a dramatic manner it was closed above 17700. The trading range was down by half than that of yesterday. NIFTY made a lower high, but a higher low and traded within the peak of yesterday’s close and yesterday’s lows. This is a consolidation before the monthly expiry. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS SBI 18.00 HDFC 31.00 JSW STEEL 13.00 HDFC BANK 27.00 IOC 12.00 RELIANCE 21.00 POWERGRID 10.00 ICICI BANK 16.00 SUN PHARMA 10.00 KOTAK BANK 11.00 63.00 106.00 Lifter - Draggers = -43 POSITIVES NIFTY managed to close above 17700. NIFTY did not breach 17600 despite selling pressure and a retest attempt on the downside was made on multiple occasions. NEGATIVES When all the heavyweights go against the upward trend, there is going to be negativity and that is what spooked the indices. All key drivers were not in the mood to rise today and profit booking and or sell-off seems to have taken place ahead of expiry. VIX keeps rising indicating more wild moves. TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK: This remains as it is -- NIFTY 17500-18100 BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS As NIFTY was approaching its P Close at 17748, 17600 CE in which I was trading, also approached its P Close at 180. This is a rare coincidence that I have seen. Usually, Options tend to decay even during the day and here, 17600 CE remained intact despite a choppy AM session where the Index attempted to retest 17600 levels a couple of times and then showed weakness until about 1300h. However, on a closing basis, there is some variation in the NIFTY and the ITM CE deviation from the P Close. THis may be on account of the weighted average close. In my view, today’s close was staged as NIFTY topped out just around the closing highs of yesterday and from there it sold off to ensure that it ends below the P Close but above 17700. Despite FTSE up by 60 points, NIFTY ended in the red. This is surprising. Though FTSE and NIFTY cannot be compared but NIFTY should have ideally followed the cue and closed positive, but instead, it ended red and at 1925h, the SGX is showing -73 even when the US markets are in the green. Clearly, there is something that is beyond the ordinary eyes to see - i am carrying forward 17600 CE keeping global cues in mind and I could be completely wrong here but I going by what I believe is a mismatch. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 29-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTYLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Simple Trade Setup | HDFC | 29-09-2021 [INTRADAY]NSE:HDFC It has almost the same chart as NIFTY. Trade Setup for Date 29-09-2021: 1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action. 2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand. 3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level. 4) Avoid gap up or gap down chase. Wait and trade between levels. Please refer below chart for levels. Hope I made it easy to understand it. Do comment your doubt or suggestion. Note: Trade with Strict SL. It may or may not hit all the levels. So one can book profit / loss at respsective level considering how price action works near that level.
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by Trading_hawk
2
Simple Trade Setup | HDFC | 27-09-2021 [INTRADAY]NSE:HDFC Observations: 1) On Daily Time frame, it broke 10DMA on 23-09-2021 and on 24-09-2021 it took support from it and closed with green candle. It has a characteristic to not to stay below 10 DMA for long time untill and unless there is some negative news about it. Please refer below chart : Daily time frame. 2) On 30min time frame, it has made double bottom pattern and gave breakout. Next critical resistance is 2850 level. Sustainable breakout of 2850 level will make it bullish till target of 2900-2930 level for short to mid term. Please refer below chart : 30 min time frame. ------------------------------------- Trade Setup for Date 27-09-2021: 1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action. 2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand. 3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level. 4) Avoid gap up or gap down chase. Wait and trade between levels. Please refer below chart for levels. Hope I made it easy to understand it. Do comment your doubt or suggestion. Note: Trade with Strict SL. It may or may not hit all the levels. So one can book profit / loss at respsective level considering how price action works near that level.
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by Trading_hawk
3
What a strong comeback by the INDICES! NIFTY batting 17822!NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -23-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17670.85 / 17843.90 / 17646.55 / 17822.95 H-L = 86 points VIX 16.6 / +0.67% FII DII: +1530 Crores SGX NIFTY at 1930h - 17853 +22 points Likely open: Flat to mild positive. Profit booking may kick-in in the PM session. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart A strong gap-up open and a sustained rally that ended the day a few points above the new ATH of 17843.9. It was after a long time that NIFTY was supported well by BANK NIFTY and other sectors as well. NIFTY yet again ends in the proverbial uncharted territory. The daily chart shows that today’s candle is up in the air like a rocket fired by someone. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 42 HDFC BANK 32 HDFC 30 BAJAJ FINSERV 28 ICICI BANK 19 TOTAL 151 The Draggers HDFC LIFE 02 ITC 02 NESTLE 02 DR REDDY’S 01 BRITANNIA 01 TOTAL 08 Lifter - Draggers = +143 POSITIVES RELIANCE chose to join hands with the HDFC twins and then what comes out was a blockbuster. BANK NIFTY also joined the party and has gained the lost ground in a matter of just one session. There are plenty of positives and the list would be long so I am not writing it here. NIFTY ends on yet another ATH and for the first time close above 17800. NEGATIVES As a mark of respect to the bullishness and positivity shown by the markets, let me not even think of any negativity at least for today’s analysis. TRADING RANGE FOR 24-09-21 I am not sure what to state about NIFTY levels. So I will let it settle down in the new terrain and will see where it ends the week before stating any levels. The spike in BANK NIFTY has torn apart all the levels on the downside so will wait for the index to end the week before stating them. The resistances are obviously at 38000 and then around the ATH of 38100+. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS All constituents of BANK NIFTY ended in the green. FMCGs are known as the defensives and today when the Indices were on a roll, there was mild profit booking in the sector as HUL, ITC and BRITANNIA ended in mild red. TATA MOTORS at one stage was up 4% and as against that MARUTI could barely move in to the 1st gear and struggled throughout the day drifting towards the P Close several times. For the last 2 days, similar price action had happened in the HDFC twins and today we know what happened! Will MARUTI follow their example tomorrow? RELIANCE may take its time to reach 2500 as it made an ATH of 2497 just around one of the FIB extensions. Peak margin rules would get invoked from tomorrow morning. So for retail traders like me, as regards Stock Options are concerned, the month would be expiring tomorrow around lunch as thereafter, many retailers like me, would start exiting thereby put pressure on the downside as regards Option premia are concerned. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 23-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:MARUTI
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
FTSE Lifts Indian Indices as they bounce back in stylefailed NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -21-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17450.5 / 17578.35 / 17326.1 / 17562 H-L = 252 points VIX 16.52 / -5.55% FII DII: Not available till 1950h Is more likely to be moderately positive. SGX NIFTY at 1940h - 17536 -25points Likely open: Flat to mild positive. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart A gap-up opening failed to hold 17450 levels and then sold off and made a lower low as NIFTY drifted towards 17300-325. The situation would have been worse off had Europe not opened green and may be 17200-250 would have been tested. However, soon after it became clear that Europe was trading in the comfortable green, NIFTY made a one-directional rally to end above 17550. However, it is likely to face resistance around yesterday’s high of 17625+ this is evident on the daily charts. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters BAJAJ FINANCE 37 INFOSYS 19 BAJAJ FINSERV 15 JSW STEEL 14 ITC 11 TOTAL 96 The Draggers HDFC BANK 05 MARUTI 03 NESTLE 02 BAJAJ AUTO 02 BPCL 01 TOTAL 13 Lifter - Draggers = +86 POSITIVES NIFTY closed above 17550 and 17300 was respected. BANK NIFTY erased all the losses and ended in the green which helped NIFTY in a big way. ITC, INFOSYS-TCS, HDFC, and TATA MOTORS rose more than 1%. RELIANCE closed above 2400. KOTAK BANK was able to hold 2000 levels on closing basis. NEGATIVES The single most weak link is HDFC BANK. It experienced severe VIX today and has the potential to be the game-breaker or maker in the coming week. Except for KOTAK BANK, all heavyweights in banking were badly hammered. BANK NIFTY made a low of 36525 a fall of 1500+ points of ATH attained a couple of days ago. TRADING RANGE FOR 22-09-21 17300-17350 was the support line and NIFTY almost threatened the same. So I now revise the line to 17250-300. Resistances at 17600-30-700. BANK NIFTY supports lines were breached so now the support line is redrawn as 36200-500. Resistances at 37500-700. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS HDFC BANK seems to have become the punching bag as it was extremely volatile through the day and moved 32 points in the day and it must have gone up and down and back and forth several times. Every time it went up and down, the fortunes of the index traders swung with it as it is a heavyweight for both the indices, and if it were not for the other scrips that showed good performance, both the indices would have fared poorly on a closing basis. NIFTY’s move is very much like that of INFOSYS if we look at the 5 minutes chart. INFOSYS is also one of the heavyweights so it has played its part in the rally today. Whereas NIFTY ended +150 points from the P Close, BANK NIFTY failed to register a +100. This is mainly on account of HDFC BANK so BANK NIFTY will be held back as long as HDFC BANK wishes. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 21-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:HDFCBANK
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Simple Trade Setup | HDFC | 17-09-2021NSE:HDFC Trade Setup for Date 17-09-2021: 1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action. 2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand. 3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level. Please refer below chart for levels. Hope I made it easy to understand it. Do comment your doubt or suggestion. Note: Trade with Strict SL.
H
by Trading_hawk
1