Indexanalysis
#NiftyAuto | Trading inside a parallel channelHello Viewer or Traders,
#NiftyAuto trading inside a parallel channel . Sellers are trying but buers still not giving up. We are standing at a decision making area. A weekly closing below the parallel channel will give eraly indication of a possible downtrend. Keep checking your stocks and book profits as required. #NiftyTrading #IndianStockMarket
Breakout in Nifty Auto...Chart is self explanatory. Levels of breakout, possible up-moves (where index may find resistances) and support (close below which, setup will be invalidated) are clearly defined.
Disclaimer: This is for demonstration and educational purpose only. This is not buying or selling recommendations. I am not SEBI registered. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade.
Weekly analysis 23rd decWeekly Analysis 23rd Dec, 2022
S.no Sector Remarks
1 Nifty Closed at 17806, another 463 point downmove in a week. Inverted hammer candle of last week worked perfectly, Concerns due to COVID inititated this downward move. Now if this week's low of 17780 is broken then more selling in on the cards , support levels are at 17642, 17435, 17300, 17171. As i said last week also keep cash ready lots buying opportunity are there in market now.
2 Nifty Bank Closed at 41668, this index has shed around 3.5% from last week close. And look's like it will test 40868 next week. Although overall market is oversold condition and short covering rally is expected but now market is sell on rise mode. This index should hold 40400,40000 level else this index alone can bring nifty to 15000 levels also.
3 Nifty PSU bank Closed at 3888, this index has corrected around 16% from its high, now 3480 is next imp support level. People who were waiting to invest in this sector can initiate new buy around 3480 level.PNB around 43, Bank of baroda around 149 look good place to enter
4 Nifty Auto Closed at 12236, no support working right now in market. Next support is at 12161-11914 level. Now we need to wait for sign of reversal before initiating trade in this index. Still we can keep eye on TVS & M_M
5 Nifty IT Closed at 28237, below this week's low of 28109, 28000 is good support and if that’s breached then IT can slide till 27800/27500 levels. HCLtech around 980 should be good entry if anyone looking for long bet in IT index
6 Nifty Infra Closed at 5157, next support is at 5085 and if that level is respected we can expect some bounce. But looking at overall market structure its better to wait for signs of reversal before initiating buys
7 Nifty Pharma Closed at 12784, despite covid news which prompted severe fall in market pharma index still not very bullish. If this week's high of 13094 is taken out(looks difficult) we can expect upside momentum else better to wait.
8 Nifty Metal Closed at 6228, around 6.5% down from last week's close, taken support at weekly fib. The kind of bearish candle on weekly TF it has made looks like it will test support of 6019 also next week. Brace for the impact
9 Nifty FMCG Closed at 44314, looks like this index also going to test its support at 44000/43600 which will be good place to enter HUL, Britannia, ITC. FMCG is still strong sector in monthly TF so buying at dips to be maintained
10 Midcap & Small cap Midcap closed at 30157 and taken support at weekly ATR. Although midcap is down by 6% over last week close but many scrips are down by 30-35% in midcap & small cap index. I can see more pain in midcap and it can slide down till 29300/29400 level which should be give investors great value to invest. Small cap closed at 9182 and next support is at 8500. Now we should wait for signs of reversal before entering these 2 indexes
11 Nifty Energy Closed at 24879, down by 5.4% over LW close, as mentioned last week this index will go down and Reliance can touch 2518, both achieved. Reliance is still looking weak can touch 2419 which is bad news for Nifty.
Breakdown in Nifty Media...Chart is self explanatory. Levels of breakdown, possible down-moves (where index may find support) and resistances (close above which, setup will be invalidated) are clearly defined.
Disclaimer: This is for demonstration and educational purpose only. This is not buying or selling recommendations. I am not SEBI registered. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) at crucial point. What's the next move ?The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The USDX was established by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1973 after the dissolution of the Bretton Woods Agreement. It is now maintained by ICE Data Indices, a subsidiary of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
The index is currently calculated by factoring in the exchange rates of six foreign currencies, which include the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), Canadian dollar (CAD), British pound (GBP), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF).
The Dollar index also impacts the inflationary trend in India. Though the Indian Rupee is not included in the index, changes in the dollar's index relative to other currencies have an impact on the Indian economy. An increase in the Dollar index makes the dollar strong and depreciates the value of the INR.
A weakened rupee makes imports costlier and impacts India Inc.’s profitability due to increased production costs. Increased costs lead to inflation, and the prices of goods and services rise, much to the detriment of consumers. Thus, the overall GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is impacted and suffers a slowdown when the dollar strengthens.
* 15 Year cycle is progressing.
* Trading withing rising channel.
* Arc 1 breakout around July, 2014.
* Arc 2 breakout around March, 2022.
* Trading near it's resistance (Resistance 5).
Target 1 achieved in Nifty Infra. Gain of 40% Target 2 is ON.This is follow-up on Nifty Infra. Can check link to related ideas.
Target 1 achieved. Gain of more than 40%. Target 2 is ON.
Chart is self explanatory. Entry, Targets and Trailing Stop Loss are mentioned on the chart.
Disclaimer: This is for demonstration and educational purpose only. This is not buying or selling recommendations. I am not SEBI registered. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade.
Monthly Breakout in Nifty Media...Chart is self explanatory. Entry, Targets and Stop Loss are mentioned on the chart.
Disclaimer: This is for demonstration and educational purpose only. This is not buying or selling recommendations. I am not SEBI registered. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade.
Morning Mantra, 10th March 2022Good Morning!
Finally, just as we had predicted, Nifty did take a beautiful bounce back from its predicted support level of 15850, and thereafter has successfully given us a closing of above 16200, which is definitely a good sign.
However, Today will be a crucial day, as we would require a consistent and a stable closing of above 16200 from Nifty for 2 more days (i.e., Today and Tomorrow).
In the Meanwhile, Stay Stock Specific and continue following the Cherry Picking Strategy, as of now.
Nifty Levels 15580-15800-16200-16350
-16800-17200-17400-17700-17900-18000-18350
Regards,
Alok Daiya
Morning Mantra, 9th December 2021Good Morning!
Finally, yesterday we were able to witness a wonderful closing of above 17360 in Nifty. However, the danger hasn’t subsided till yet, since just like 2nd December 2021, Nifty has once again made a high of around 17480 approx. Which in turn is still a matter of concern.
Moreover, we can state that if Today Nifty manages to sustain above the level of 17454, during the first 2 hours, then we might get to witness Nifty at 17800 very soon.
Nifty Levels 15580-15800-16200-16350
-16800-17200-17400-17700-17900-18000-18350
Regards,
Alok Daiya
Nifty Daily Analysis | Rounding Bottom Nifty forming rounding bottom near the major support level, if the price action completes the pattern then we can see nifty to continue its uptrend. However there's a descending trendline which is working as a resistance therefore this trendline has to be cleared to complete the rounding bottom. Support for nifty is 18050 - 18000 & nearest resistance is the trendline and major resistance is 18314.
SENSEX ANALYSISThis is the monthly chart of Sensex.
A trendline is seen right from 2008; and current trend (from dec 2020) is taking support from this trendline.
Also, current level is facing resistance from a crucial psychological barrier, which is the ATH (All time high) of sensex; 52537.89.
This barrier is also a resistance point according to the Fibonacci levels.
Sustainment (on closing basis) above 52537.89 can lead to a big bullish move in this index, touching approx 60,000 in a year or so.
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NIFTY analysis for 31 MayThe SGX is 40 odd points down, so expect a gap down opening.
The US markets did not give a great closing, (rallied in the session but closed around previous day's close.)
India VIX is below 18, meaning the fear of a big crash has abated.
Bullish Scenario: The market may gap down,
test yesterday's low (15390), and move higher or stay range bound through the day.
Bearish Scenario: The market opens gap down,
tests the 15435 level or yesterday's high 15470,
and comes crashing down to 15335 level and takes support.
Is it time to be cautious on NIFTY?Some conflicting signals:
India VIX has been closing below 20(good sign), occasionally giving a spike scare then abating within the session.
Not much buying seen from FIIs/DIIs. In fact the FIIs sold 660Cr and DIIs bought only 112Cr. Yet market closed marginally in green. Is the market being kept afloat for a while?
The RSI divergence can be easily noticed on the charts.
The NIFTY Futures relative strength against NIFTY has been in a constant decline for four sessions.
Nifty is forming a Rounding bottom pattern, but the volumes have been on a continuous decline. (Ideally the volumes should expand while the price approaches the breakout point.)
The leading sectors (Metals, Pharma, IT) are not really moving (market breadth wise).
We are seeing a lot of failed breakouts. A hard penny environment. The NIFTY looks like a stronger index vis-a-vis S&P500 on Relative Strength. But are we really seeing strength in the broader market?