Get started

Indexanalysis

Nifty Outlook: Range-Bound Week Ahead?📈 Nifty wrapped up the week on a positive note, climbing about 1% and keeping the bullish sentiment alive. 🔍 However, the daily chart reveals some hesitation, as the index struggles to stay above the 24,400 mark. 📊 Looking ahead, Nifty is likely to move sideways between 24,500 and 24,000, with heavy call writing at the top and put writing at the bottom, creating a tight trading range. ⚠️ Adding to the caution, the India VIX closed above 18, hinting at increased market Volatility. 💡 Bottom line: Traders should gear up for a volatile and range-bound week ahead. Stay sharp, stay strategic!
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
Nifty’s Rally Faces a Hurdle at 24,400 — Volatility on the Rise● After successfully breaking out from the Double Bottom pattern, Nifty faced rejection near the 24,400 level, establishing it as the immediate resistance. ● While the index managed to close above 24,000, this level appears fragile and may not offer strong support. As long as Nifty holds above 23,800, the broader market sentiment is expected to remain positive. ● For the next bullish move to materialize, the index must decisively surpass and sustain above 24,400. ● It is also notable that India VIX rose sharply this week, climbing over 10%, indicating heightened anxiety among market participants. ● With ongoing geopolitical tensions, market volatility could remain elevated in the near term. ● Investors and traders are advised to exercise proper risk management when taking new positions to protect against potential large losses.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
Banking Sector Boost Nifty to New Levels: What’s Coming Next?The Nifty has shown a clear turnaround with a double bottom pattern and has broken past the 23,800 level. This strong move is mostly thanks to the banking sector, especially with great Q4 results from HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. The Bank Nifty, now trading just below its all-time high, might struggle near 55,000—a zone that previously triggered a pullback, leading to consolidation in the broader market. For Nifty, the immediate resistance is seen at the 24,000 level, where significant call writing activity may pose a hurdle. On the downside, a breach below 23,500 could signal a potential reversal, dragging the index into a downtrend once again.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
Nifty Faces Resistance: Bullish Momentum Expected Above 24kNifty has breached its trendline resistance but encountered selling pressure near the 23,870 level, suggesting a possible pullback toward the 23,000 support zone. A potential Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern is forming, which could signal a trend reversal. However, confirmation would require a decisive breakout and sustained hold above the 24,000 resistance level. Also the open interest data indicates strong call writing at 24,000, reinforcing its significance as a key resistance. In the near term, the index is expected to trade sideways, with market participants awaiting Q4 earnings results for further directional cues. The upcoming earnings season will likely dictate the next major move in the market.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
1
Dead Cat Bounce or Trend Reversal: What's Next for the Nifty?● After a significant decline from its all-time high, Nifty found strong support near the 22,000 level. ● Since then, the index has rebounded and recently breached its trendline resistance, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. 🚀 📊 Open Interest (OI) Data Analysis: ● The OI data indicates a substantial increase in put open interest at the 23,000 strike price, establishing this level as a key immediate support. ● Conversely, the 23,500 strike price has emerged as a strong resistance zone, with the highest concentration of call OI. ❓ Key Question: Has the Nifty truly bottomed out, or is there still room for further correction? 🤔 💬 Share your insights and perspectives in the comments below! 👇
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
Nifty Down 16% from Highs: Eyes on Next Support at 21,800● Nifty 50 has declined by approximately 16% from its all-time high, signalling a significant correction in the market. ● The next crucial support level is anticipated around the 21,800 mark, a level where the index has historically found support on five previous occasions. ◉ OI Data Analysis ● The 22,500 strike price has the highest concentration of call writers, establishing it as a strong immediate resistance level. ● Conversely, the 22,000 strike price shows the highest accumulation of put writers, indicating robust support at this level. ◉ Valuation Analysis ● From a valuation standpoint, the Nifty appears attractive, currently trading at a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 19.7. ● This is notably below its 5-year average PE of 24.8, suggesting the index may be undervalued relative to its historical standards.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
Nifty Under Stress: Will 22,800 Support Level Hold?● The Nifty is currently trading near its immediate support zone around the 22,800 level. ● The open interest data reveals a notable surge in call OI at the 22,800 strike price, with call OI increased by 38 lakh shares in the last trading session. ● On the other hand, put OI also rose by 20 lakh. ● This activity suggests strong support at the 22,800 level, indicating it is unlikely to be breached easily in the near term. ● However, a break below this support level could lead to a downward move toward the 22,500 level. ● In the current scenario, the market is expected to remain range-bound and choppy in the upcoming week.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
Auto Index Nears Breakdown: Hero Motocorp a Top Short Pick◉ Auto Sector Overview NSE:CNXAUTO ● The auto sector has recently experienced significant selling pressure, driving the index to hover just above its key support level at 22,000. ● However, there are concerns that this support level may not hold for long, potentially leading to a breakdown and continuation of the downtrend. In light of this scenario, short positions in select stocks within the sector could present a viable trading opportunity. ◉ Hero Motocorp Technical Analysis NSE:HEROMOTOCO ● On the weekly chart, Hero Motocorp has formed a Head & Shoulders pattern, a classic bearish reversal signal. ● The price has recently breached the neckline of this pattern, indicating a potential for further downside movement. This breach reinforces the bearish outlook for the stock. ◉ OI Data Analysis ● Open interest data shows a buildup of new short positions during recent trading sessions, further supporting the bearish sentiment. ● Additionally, the option chain data highlights a significant concentration of put writers at the 3900 level. ● With this level now breached, the stock is expected to maintain its negative momentum, potentially leading to further declines.
NSE:CNXAUTOShort
by GoodluckCapital
Nifty50 Current View NSE:NIFTY After breakout it has shown sharp fall towards previous demand zone and this level also comes around the retesting zone. in the last session we have seen some demand coming in from the lows and candle formed decent wick and its not the 1st time on 12th feb wednesday also shown similar movement. So now it makes a major support around 22800-750 zone this should hold to have some hopes of reversal from here. We need a bullish confirmation from this level to take fresh entries. Keep Learning Happy Trading.
NSE:NIFTY
by SANJAYPATIDAR_
Nifty’s Eight-Day Slump: Is a Reversal Brewing at 22,800?● Last week proved to be a challenging period for the Nifty, as the index experienced a sharp decline of over 2.5%, extending its losing streak to eight consecutive trading sessions. ● A key support level to watch is at 22,800, which could act as a crucial floor for the index. ● This level gains further significance as Open Interest (OI) data reveals a substantial buildup of put writers at the 22,800 strike price, reinforcing the potential support zone. ● Market participants will closely monitor whether the index manages to hold above this level or breaches it in the coming sessions. ● Adding to the intrigue, a bullish RSI divergence has emerged, hinting at the possibility of a trend reversal in the near term.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
The Nifty 50 Dilemma: Which Way Will the Index Swing?◉ Technical Analysis ● Nifty has formed a Falling Wedge pattern on the daily chart, typically considered a bullish signal. ● Simultaneously, a Three Black Crows candlestick pattern has emerged over the last three sessions, indicating bearish sentiment. ● The bearish pattern is significant as it has formed near the trendline resistance, suggesting a potential pullback toward the 23,000 level. ◉ OI Data Analysis ● The 23,600 level has the highest call writer concentration, acting as immediate resistance. ● The 23,200 level shows the highest put writer accumulation, serving as strong support. ◉ Possible Next Move ● If the index opens with a slight gap-up below 23,600, selling pressure is likely to continue in the coming week. ● Even with a significant gap-up above 23,600, a bearish scenario may persist. ● For a confirmed trend reversal, the index must decisively break and hold above the 23,800 level.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
2
Consumption Boom: Tax Cuts Fuel India's Consumer Stock SurgeRecent trends in the Indian stock market indicate a significant shift from industrials to consumer-oriented stocks, particularly in sectors such as consumer goods, consumer discretionary, and automobiles. This change has been catalysed by the government's recent budget announcement, which included income tax cuts aimed at boosting consumer spending. ◉ Key Insights ● Increased Consumer Spending: The reduction in income tax is expected to enhance disposable income for individuals, thereby accelerating the shift towards consumption stocks. This trend is already visible, with the Nifty India Consumption Index NSE:CNXCONSUMPTION rising over 3% following the budget announcement. ● Impact on Industrial Stocks: Conversely, industrials faced a downturn post-budget, with the BSE Capital Goods Index dropping by 3% and the Infrastructure and Industrials indices falling over 2.5%. This indicates a market sentiment that favours consumer spending over capital expenditure in the short term. ● Bullish Outlook on Specific Sectors: Analysts are optimistic about sectors such as paints, consumer durables (including electric goods), and two-wheeler manufacturers like Bajaj Auto. These stocks are seen as underperformers that stand to benefit significantly from increased consumption. ◉ Government's Strategy The government's strategy to stimulate consumption rather than focusing solely on capital expenditure marks a notable shift in fiscal policy. The intent is clear: by putting more money in consumers' hands, the government aims to invigorate spending and support economic growth. ◉ Market Predictions Market participants predict that consumption stocks will lead market rallies in the near to medium term. The expected increase in spending from the middle class could help alleviate slow growth numbers in sectors like automotive and FMCG. ◉ Conclusion As investors navigate these changes on Dalal Street, it is crucial to consider the implications of government policies on market dynamics. The current environment presents opportunities for those looking to invest in consumer-focused sectors while remaining cautious about industrial stocks in the near future.
NSE:CNXCONSUMPTIONLong
by GoodluckCapital
Selling Dominates Nifty Bank: Technical Outlook for Key Stocks◉ Nifty Bank Technical Outlook NSE:BANKNIFTY ● The index has broken below its trendline support and is currently testing its immediate support zone between 48,300 and 48,600. ● If selling pressure persists, the index may plummet another 5% to find support around the 46,000 level. ◉ Key Constituents' Technical Standings Let's dive into the technical analysis of the top Bank Nifty constituents to gauge their current standings and potential future movements. 1. HDFC Bank (Weightage - 28.11%) NSE:HDFCBANK ● As the leading component, HDFC Bank is poised to exert downward pressure on the overall index. ● The stock has broken below its trendline support and has been falling continuously for the last 6 trading sessions. ● Support level is expected somewhere between 1,600 - 1,610 level which is around 3.4% below from the current level. 2. ICICI Bank (Weightage - 24.98%) NSE:ICICIBANK ● The stock has also fallen below its trendline support and is currently hovering just above its immediate support zone. ● If this support is breached, a significant correction could drive the price down to around 1,150. 3. Kotak Mahindra Bank (Weightage - 8.80%) NSE:KOTAKBANK ● The stock has been consolidating within a range for almost 4 years. ● Recent chart patterns suggest the price may test its support zone again, around 7.7% below the current level. 4. Axis Bank (Weightage - 8.54%) NSE:AXISBANK ● Axis Bank's chart shows a bearish pattern, similar to HDFC Bank's, and is likely to experience a fall of around 6%. 5. State Bank of India (Weightage - 8.45%) NSE:SBIN ● The stock is currently positioned just above its immediate support level, suggesting a strong potential for a rebound from this point.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by GoodluckCapital
Nifty50 - November 2024 viewIn my October view, I had mentioned that it is time to be cautious as Nifty was near an important zone of 26240-26270 and we have seen more than 2000 points fall since then. FIIs have sold more than 1.3 lakh crore of equity in last 40 days. Let's analyze what can be expected in this month. We have seen nearly 10% correction from ATH in Nifty50. 23900 is acting as a support currently which is also its 78.6 % fib extension. On the downside:- Below 23900, I am expecting at least 23300 which is near the trendline support. On the upside:- 24300, 24800 & 25000 would act as a strong resistance. Current view is sideways to bearish till 25000 is breached on weekly closing basis Till then, market will remain on sell at high.
NSE:NIFTY
by chartistamey
Nifty 50 - Portfolio Colour similar to color of Christmas?Year endings have historically been famous for a big correction and 2024 is no different. As I had mentioned in my previous idea, 23900, 23300 are crucial support to Nifty and 24300, 24800 are strong resistances We had seen a good bounce from 23300 to 24780 and then a good fall once 24300 was broken again. 23200-23300 will be a key level to understand next trend for Nifty. As we can see, there is a confluence of trendlines and demand zone around 23200. If we see a bear trap forming at this zone, one can expect 25000+ levels in January 2025. But if 23200 is broken, bloodbath may continue till budget with next key support zones being 22700, 22000, 21500. Market is going to be volatile as we are going to see a change in lot size of Nifty 50 from new year. It is better to be sector specific for swing trading.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by chartistamey
2
The Banking-FMCG-Realty Trifecta Turbocharges Market Growth.Nifty Bank The Bank Nifty is on a strong upward trend, consistently making higher highs and lows. It has recently broken through its previous all-time high while moving within an ascending parallel channel, indicating potential for further gains. Nifty FMCG The FMCG sector is a major player in the market, and with a recent breakout, the index has reached its all-time high. The price action indicates bullish momentum, suggesting it could continue to rise. Nifty Realty While the overall trend is positive, the realty sector has struggled to make a significant impact in recent months. However, a bullish Pole & Flag pattern has appeared on the chart, signalled a possible continuation of the upward trend. A recent breakout shows the index is active again.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by GoodluckCapital
Tech-Finance Synergy Could Boost Nifty This Week!Nifty It NSE:CNXIT The IT index has been in a consolidation phase for an extended duration and developed a Cup & Handle pattern. After breaking out, the index has effectively retested the breakout level and is now on an upward trajectory. In the past week, the index gained approximately 3% and is showing robust strength, with expectations for further upward movement. Nifty Private Bank NSE:NIFTYPVTBANK The Private Bank index is currently experiencing a positive upward trend. It previously established a Cup & Handle pattern, and following a breakout, the index saw substantial gains, consistently recording higher highs and lows. After hitting an all-time high near the 26,650 level, the Private Bank index retraced to its immediate support zone and is now rising once more. With a significant increase of almost 2.7% last week, the index seems to be in a bullish phase at present.
NSE:NIFTYPVTBANKLong
by GoodluckCapital
Bearish RSI divergence in Nifty, indicating a potential decline! Since October 2023, Nifty has demonstrated a robust upward trend, reaching an impressive peak of 25,333, marked an all-time high. However, the index has recently faced a setback, pulled back from this peak and currently indicating a downward movement. A significant bearish RSI divergence is evident on the daily chart, signaling a further potential decline for the index. On the downside, important support levels are lies between 23,900 and 24,100. It is crucial to recognize that a break below this support could lead to a significant drop in the index.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by GoodluckCapital
1
Banknifty is at a key support level—will it rebound? In recent months, the bank index has been on a remarkable upward trajectory, consistently achieving higher highs and higher lows. After reaching an all-time peak close to 53,350 (specifically at 50,358), the bank index experienced a correction. At present, the index is hovering around a significant support level of 49,750, which also aligns with the trendline support visible on the chart. There is a strong expectation that the bank index will bounce back from this point and resume its upward trend. However, if this support is broken, the next level to watch will be around 46,000 to 46,300. To regain its bullish momentum, the index must overcome the immediate resistance located between 53,000 and 53,350.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
Realty & Auto: Massive sell-off opens up a chance for shorting!REALTY Following an impressive bull run, the index has begun to consolidate and has taken the shape of a Rounding Top pattern. With significant selling pressure, the index is currently hovering around its trendline support level, which also happens to be the neckline of the Rounding Top pattern. If the trendline is breached, we could potentially witness a correction in the real estate sector. This sell-off presents an opportunity to take short positions in stocks like DLF, Godrej Properties etc. AUTO The automotive industry has experienced a significant increase and is one of the key sectors contributing to the strong rally of Nifty. Following a period of consolidation, a breakout occurred but the index encountered a notable rejection at its all-time high. Following a significant gap, the auto index dropped and is anticipated to decline even further. Given this situation, there is a chance to open short positions in certain stocks such as M&M, Escorts etc.
NSE:CNXREALTYShort
by GoodluckCapital