DXY Trading Plan - 23/Nov/2021Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect DXY to go DOWN after finishing this ending structure.
Look for your SELL setups.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea
Indices
JXY Trading Plan - 18/Nov/2021Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect JXY to go UP after finishing this correction.
Look for your BUY setups.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea
A bit hesitant and a lost opportunity!A BIT HESITANT & A LOST OPPORTUNITY
Hello Readers!
Usually, I prefer discussing my intraday trades unless they had some great learnings and or earnings! Friday, 01 Oct was a regular day and so I did not share my trades as I do not want to influence the readers with my way of trading and would rather share my learnings and experiences than my trades. It is better to help someone find a job than keep feeding the person. Self-dependency is the motive behind not giving “tips” or “trades”. Leave aside the fact that I cannot do such things since I am SEBI unregistered.
However, when there is great learning, I must share and so this post.
On 1-10-21, I went Long in Nifty Futures at 17480. I picked up a Futures contract for the first time in 6 months as the enhanced margin requirements by SEBI have made it hard to trade in Futures as I do not deploy the entire capital to trading. The intention of the trade was to ride the price action as long as possible. I was pleased that I was able to catch the proverbial “Falling Knife”!
Based on my reading Nifty had crucial support around 17400-420 so a 60-75 point risk for a larger gain was reasonable. Nifty then fell a bit and then bounced back and hit 17540+ Futures. I was happy but my happiness was short-lived as it fell from around that level and then came back below my cost price. I held on to the position as the view was swing or intraday depending upon where it would close.
Nifty bounced back again and went to the level and then yet again it fell from there in the last 40 minutes. I sensed that Nifty is giving signs of weakness around 17550 so I should exit and take a fresh view just before close. I exited around 17540. Soon Nifty fell further and I was happy as my view was validated. I now had around 5 minutes to decide and I thought through and did a contextual reading that the British Index FTSE was in good green so Nifty may open positive. At the same time, I thought - it has fallen 35 points from the high showing weakness. I was in multiple minds not even double! I finally let it go with the logic that it is better to avoid Futures position over a weekend.
It is 1115h now on 4 Oct and Nifty has made a high of 15745, +265 points from buy price. Since I had exited at 17540 and had an opportunity to buy it again at 17515, I should add 25 points more to it to work out the Opportunity Cost of “weekend hesitation”.
So the Opportunity Cost is as under:
17745 - 17480 + 25 = 290
I had 1 lot so 290*50 = 14,500
Funds required = 109,500
% Return Lost = 13.24
LEARNINGS:
It is better to stick to the original view and hold on to a position as long as it is above the cost even if it is on a weekend or ahead of a market holiday.
Contextual reading is good, however, the process is more important than anything else.
A switch in the view from Positional to Intraday is not a good approach unless something has really gone wrong with the trade basis or it has been severely invalidated.
There is no safe investment and risk of losing the book gains is part of the trading process.
Such hesitation is Okay as it was after a long time the Futures contract was traded - so the best way to learn and move on is to acknowledge the lost opportunity and move on.
I hope the above helps you plan your trades and better manage them as well.
In case you have experienced similar incidences in the last, please do share for the benefit of all.
Happy Learning & Earning!
Umesh
4-10-21
TRADING Vs INVESTING - PART 1A follower asked me what is the basic difference between the two and whether people with a smaller capital base should invest than trade. So I thought of sharing my thoughts on the subject which may vary from what the reader has in mind. It is a matter of perspective and beliefs and views are more likely to be diverse than alike.
I propose to share my thoughts over the next few weekly articles which you would read during the weekend. Whenever possible, the article would also have a YouTube video link that shows how things work in the real world. This approach would help you understand the concepts well.
Prerequisites to commence Trading as a Beginner--
Demat and Trading account.
Capital.
Basic knowledge of Technical Analysis or similar trading approach.
Trading Methodology
Trading Plan.
These are the basic things to be put in place.
Prerequisites to become an Investor--
Demat Account .
Capital.
Investment Approach.
These are the basic things to be put in place.
What is the Key Differentiator between Trading & Investing?
A trader wants to capture the short-term movement in prices of one or many instruments that get traded on the exchange/s.
An Investor wants to deploy his capital to build wealth by compounding the returns over a long period of time.
Should I become a Trader or an Investor?
In my view, there is no right answer for this. However, I believe that to become an investor, one needs to have a good amount of capital base as investing is more of a waiting game. It is a marathon and not a sprint. If I invest say, 3L today, I cannot expect the investment to double in the next 6 months unless, of course, I end up investing in some scrips that end up witnessing a dream run.
Whenever people talk about investing, by default, they take examples of Warren Buffet, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, and R K Damani. It is a general perception that these people are investors and not traders. However, if you dig deeper you will realize that Warren Buffet is one of the biggest traders in Options. RJ and RKD have publicly shared that they have been able to become investors only because of their consistent profits as traders. In trading, thanks to the power of leveraging, it is possible to gain good amounts of money when the trade works in your favor. Monies so gained once invested back in the market start compounding as you take another set of trades with your trading capital and let the gains get invested and like that the series goes on.
I am aware that there are many “investors' ' who look down on trading as gambling and time consuming and addictive. More likely or not they too were once a trader as unless a person is born with Silver and Golden spoon in mouth, s/he cannot become an investor from base Zero especially in the current situations. This is universally true and you may dig deep in case you find my lines to be biased towards trading.
Should I worry about the fact whether I am a Trader / Investor?
I believe that I am in the stock market to make money. Now if someone fashionably wants to state that I am here to create wealth it is stating the same thing in a different way. To create wealth, one needs to make money, and does it really matter whether you make money by trading or investing? Similarly, does it really matter whether you make money by trading in Equities / Options / Futures / Commodities and the like? Money is money and the instrument you use should not decide whether it is good or bad - of course, the manner in which you make money should be legit.
But then What Should I do?
In case you are still not clear, in my view, the following should be your approach --
If your capital is less than 5L and you are not able to save enough on a regular basis, you should focus on trading - it can be intraday/swing / positional.
If your capital is more than 5L and you are able to add to your capital on a monthly basis, investing should be pursued along with positional trading.
Remember, there is no right answer as situations change from person to person and even for the same person from time to time. Things have become more difficult and dynamic for an average person in the last 1.5 years so please do not get guided by everything that you hear, read and watch. Gather all the information, study what you can on your own and then decide your Money Making Goals, and then proceed on the journey that you think fits your way of leading life.
Your money should be your concern and your joy and there is no one better than you to decide about what should be or what should not be done with it.
In the next part, I will write more about “Investing”.
In case you have any thoughts/queries, please share and I will be happy to respond to the extent I can.
Happy Money Making,
Umesh
Market Wizard Books.Curated Version:
These are enough for those who really want to deep dive into the world of finance.
Don't think reading only these you're able to do financial modeling things simply do fundamental as well... Company Financial statements are another thing. Going through out these books you'll able to think or relate dots in the Financial World. Foundation of stock market start with Dow theory and end up with Neural Networks.
You have to work on your way of processing the information.
End run of Steel - Bearish view of JSW A 30min chart shows that price has halted at its support level which if broke we can see the target of 712-710 with a strict SL of 750 levels.
But if it retraces to 750 level then we can get a discounted price to short the stock with a strict SL of 765-770 area.
It all depends on the Broader market view so do look for Nifty and Nifty Metal indices before shorting.
Bank Nifty : 06th May View - Bull Run on Expiry ?BNF has made double bottom from the support zones of 32K.
Today it broke the Trendline after multiple attempts and has given closing above Trendline only.
If BNF opens above the same Trendline on 06th May then it looks all set to reach 33300-33400 levels tomorrow.
In coming days if BNF sustains 33000-33300 levels then it can continue its journey towards 34K else it can fall back again to 32700-32500 levels
P.S. Moves on expiry can be very volatile so please trade with proper R:R
Short the BankNifty Early MondayTrade-hour analysis
The BNF is about to break a downward channel and correct after the COVID-corrective bull run.
Sell if the BNF confirms the 15m Bearish trend and take profits at 33530-33540
If there is gap up openning then wait for gap to be filled.
If the there are more positive fundamental cues (Highly unlikely) Enter at the top buy zone after confirmation and TP at the closest DSZ.
S & P BSE Power Index Near to Breakout* After Long Consolidation S & P BSE Power Index showing strength to breakout. If monthly close will happen above upper boundary then this POWER index outperform to SENSEX .
S & P BSE Power Index STOCKS-
Scrip LTP
POWERGRID 232.2
ADANITRANS 769
BHEL 40.4
TATAPOWER 91.15
SIEMENS 1,839.65
TORNTPOWER 364.8
ABB 1,523.00
CESC 611.6
THERMAX 1,162.65
KEC 431.4
ADANIPOWER 55.8
NHPC 25.8
ADANIGREEN 1,118.40
NTPC 104.3
Kindly Let us know if you have any question.
Thank you