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RELIANCE towers over NIFTY batting 17323NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -03-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17262.45 / 17340.1 / 17212.2 / 17323.6 H-L = +186 points VIX 14.54 / +2.11% FII DII: +1436 Crores Likely open: Positive but there may be selling pressure if BANK NIFTY does not support it. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS A good gap-up opening and then the typical retest of P Close. This is how NIFTY moved in the AM session. Then, NIFTY retested and crossed the opening high and fell again to retest the P Close and recovered smartly to end the day closer to the ATH. On a 5 minute chart, NIFTY looks highly volatile as if we are seeing a BANK NIFTY chart. On the weekly chart, NIFTY shows a strong bullish candle that has not been seen for the last several weeks. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 63 TITAN 09 INFOSYS 07 IOC 05 EICHER MOTORS 03 TOTAL 87 The Draggers HDFC BANK 10 HDFC 09 HDFC LIFE 06 HUL 05 BHARTI AIRTEL 02 TOTAL 32 Lifter - Draggers = +55 The towering presence of RELIANCE is what changed the fortunes of NIFTY. POSITIVES RELIANCE soared and closed the week in style at a new ATH. INFOSYS restored the 1700 level and is now above its 200 DMA. Despite the negative news, MARUTI closed higher and at one stage looked set to retest 7000. FIIs DIIs are both Net Buyers. NEGATIVES BANK NIFTY continues to underperform. HDFC triplets were on the other side of RELIANCE. They perhaps tried to justify their might. TRADING RANGE FOR WB 06-09-21 17000-17200 is the support base. I do not know what the upper levels may be. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS The NIFTY rally is now becoming a stock driven rally possibly indicating exhaustion at higher levels and the coming week may see some profit booking. Today it was RELIANCE and next week it could be INFOSYS and HDFC family. It is time to turn cautious until BANK NIFTY closes well above 37200 as the index has the potential to drag NIFTY and upset the party. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 03-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
NIFTY scales new peak and closes as well around the peakNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -02-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17095.4 / 17245.5 / 17059.7 / 17234.15 H-L = +186 points VIX 14.24 / +0.357% FII DII: +729 Crores Likely open: Positive but there may be consolidation taking place as the Net Volume of FIIs DIIs is not significant. And all eyes on where the week closes - above 17200? CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY made a new ATH and closed also at a new ATH which is closer to the ATH level indicating a strong close. However, NIFTY had almost retested the lows of yesterday in the opening candle itself but they smartly recovered within the first 5 minutes and then never looked back. The ride to the top was somewhat choppy and not smooth and the biggest move of the day happened in the first 5-minute candle itself. The rest were climbing the proverbial Wall of Worry. That also justifies the slight jump in the VIX. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters TCS 25 RELIANCE 18 HDFC LIFE 15 SHREE CEMENTS 13 HUL 10 TOTAL 81 The Draggers M&M 04 BAJAJ FINSERV 03 BAJAJ FINANCE 02 DIVIS LABS 02 TATA MOTORS 01 TOTAL 12 Lifter - Draggers = +69 There was not much negativity and that is what has propelled NIFTY to scale a new peak. POSITIVES Despite INFOSYS not being able to contribute, TCS led from the front and put up a great show of strength. Clearly, it has come a long way. The FMCG giant HUL too has been keeping pace which is a good sign. HDFC twins and RELIANCE also ended in the green. RELIANCE crossed 2300 but ended the day just below the line. FIIs DIIs are both Net Buyers. NEGATIVES BANK NIFTY is finding it hard to cross the 37000 lines. MARUTI as well as TATA MOTORS are under some sort of pressure on account of the semiconductor news. These two need to move up firmly as they have been trading within a range for a while now. INFOSYS made a deep dive to 1663 and recovered in the late trade but closed a few points below its 20 DMA. On account of its weightage, it is important that it restores 1700+ levels for NIFTY to remain above 17200. TRADING RANGE FOR 03-09-21 17000-17300 is the range that I can think of for the final day of the week. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS The tendency of a scrip to go below its key moving averages and then make an attempt to come back up is a good sign indicating that the selling pressure has been exhausted for now and renewed buying interest has taken place. This is what seems to be happening in INFOSYS. Tomorrow’s session will decide on whether it reclaims 1700 level or faces some hurdle around the 20 DMA resting at 1690. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 02-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Back to the old tussle - FIIs Vs DIIs and Nifty slipsNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -01-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17185.6 / 17225.75 / 17055.05 / 17076.25 H-L = 170 points VIX 14.19 / -2.27% FII DII: +621 Crores Likely open: Positive and interesting to see how Nifty reacts as this would be the first expiry in the 17000 zones. The big Q is will it hold the key level? CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY made yet another high and a higher low as well. The higher high could not be sustained due to intense selling pressure from some of the heavyweights which dragged the index below 17100. The daily charts indicate that there was selling pressure but the volume is not higher than yesterday’s session. This is more of a profit booking drive that has been undertaken by the FIIs who have been consistently buying in the cash market for the last several sessions. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters ASIAN PAINTS 11 NESTLE 09 RELIANCE 07 SBI LIFE 07 AXIS BANK 06 TOTAL 40 The Draggers INFOSYS 25 HDFC 22 TCS 19 BAJAJ FINSERV 14 TATA STEEL 07 TOTAL 87 Lifter - Draggers = -47 Of the 55 negative points, 47 have come per above. This is the might of these scrips. POSITIVES NIFTY hit another ATH above 17200. BANK NIFTY ended above 36500 and ended in the good green despite heavy selling in NIFTY. RELIANCE did not end in red. HDFC BANK more or less held its ground. NEGATIVES IT heavyweights have been witnessing selling pressure for the last few sessions. NIFTY failed to close above the P Close. NIFTY fell close to 17050 and tomorrow is expiry so volatility may be high. DIIs have begun banking gains which led to selling pressure. TRADING RANGE FOR 02-09-21 16950-17250 is the range that I can think of for the week. NIFTY may consolidate between these levels until either is broken on a closing basis. BANK NIFTY support base moves up to 36200-400 and resistance at 36800-37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS With the change in the lot size of NIFTY from Aug 2021, NIFTY has become more volatile and now with it being above 17000, a 150 point move on either side is also less than 1% move which is what needs to be digested by the traders. It has now started giving the kind of moves that BANK NIFTY used to give. Around March 2020, BANK NIFTY had reached levels around 16500-17000. Today, NIFTY is at 17000+ and we are around 17 months away from those days. This is the power of the stock market. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 01-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
FIIs show their might as NIFTY surges past 17100 with easeNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -31-08-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 16947.5 / 17153.5 / 16915.85 / 17132.2 H-L = 238 points VIX 14.52 / +9.01% FII DII: +1909 Crores Likely open: Positive but profit booking may kick in if Global cues do not support. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS And the surge continued today as well and NIFTY finally sailed past 17000 with relative ease and ended comfortably above 17100. It appeared that it may retest levels below 16900, but then it quickly recovered and then never looked back except for the lunch session quick fall which was bought in ti by the bears. NIFTY is likely to set its own course as it builds its bases in the newer zones. The daily charts indicate a strong bullish candle. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters BAJAJ FINANCE 38 TCS 16 BAJAJ FINSERV 16 HDFC 14 BHARTI AIRTEL 12 TOTAL 96 The Draggers RELIANCE 07 NESTLE 04 TATAMOTORS 02 INDUSIND 01 BPCL 01 TOTAL 15 Lifter - Draggers = +81 The above indicates that a larger base of scrips in the NIFTY family helped it close above 17100. POSITIVES NIFTY crossed 17000 and closed above 17100 with ease. BANK NIFTY finally emerged out of the resistances and soared which helped NIFTY. Broader market participation resulted in NIFTY scaling higher levels with relative ease. FIIs are back with a bang in the buying business and clearly, this had a positive impact on NIFTY. Top 5 NIFTY heavyweights ended the month at their respective ATH which is a great positive. NEGATIVES BANK NIFTY kept underperforming and had a very narrow range for the day. VIX is up 9% as shorters would have been forced to run cover. RELIANCE as usual chose not to participate in the rally and this alone has the potential to be a spoilsport for NIFTY. DIIs have sold heavily indicating that from their viewpoint, the short-term top is nearing or has been reached. TRADING RANGE FOR 01-09-21 At best 17000 base is what I can think of for now. We will need to see how the index moves during the week before deciding on the levels. BANK NIFTY support base stays at 35400-500 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS Top 5 heavyweights of NIFTY recorded ATH close on monthly candles. Like RELIANCE, KOTAK BANK also has the tendency to play its own game. Except that today HDFC BANK also joined it and saved BANK NIFTY from slipping from the lower levels. BANK NIFTY has formed a Doji candle on the daily chart with good volumes. It is a sign of caution or a positive move ahead. We will need to wait and watch. As long as HDFC BANK stays positive, it will handle BANK NIFTY on the upside. What do you feel? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 31-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
NIFTY ends the week on a high note at 16705NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -27-08-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 16642.55 / 16722.05 / 16565.7 / 16705.2 H-L = 157 points VIX 13.41 / -0.96% FII DII: +868 Crores Likely open: Positive but may get sold into and then recovery is likely. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY not only ended the day but also the week at a record high of 16705.2. It has made a higher high, highest close but with a lower high. After a flat sort of opening, it was sold in to and then rose sharply and after clearing 16650, it kept climbing gradually through the day. On the daily as well as the weekly charts, NIFTY has formed nice bullish candles rejecting the lower levels around 16550-600. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters TCS 09 LT 09 BAJAJ FINSERV 07 SBI LIFE 06 HDFC 05 TOTAL 36 The Draggers INFOSYS 12 HDFC BANK 05 RELIANCE 02 NESTLE 02 M&M 01 TOTAL 19 Lifter - Draggers = +17 The above indicates that a larger base of scrips in the NIFTY family helped it pass the ATH level and close also at a new ATH. POSITIVES NIFTY ended the day as well as the week at a new ATH and above 16700. DIIs have bought significantly at ATH which is a big plus indicating that there is good upside potential in-store in the coming weeks/months. VIX has cooled down. 39/50 scrips ended in the green. MARUTI which had been falling consistently ended in a minor positive. This could have a sentimental impact on the other sectoral scrips as well. NEGATIVES INFOSYS is showing signs of fatigue in the short term. RELIANCE as well appears to be losing momentum as it approaches the resistance area around 2250. BANK NIFTY continues to underperform. TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 30-8-21 The Nifty baseline moves up to 16500-550. The resistances are not known for now. BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35000-35200 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS The new SEBI regulations re no leverage come into force from 01 Sep and this could have an impact on Options pricing as more traders may switch to Options from EQUITY intraday trading as the margin benefit gets reduced. UPSTOX has delayed intraday EQ profit credit from T+1 days to T+2 days to prevent a potential margin shortfall and resultant penalty. If others also follow suit, this could create more pressure on the intraday EQ-only traders to move to Options. Even when NIFTY is at a new ATH, several scrips look beaten down and far from their ATH. This could be a double-edged sword for the scrips as well as for NIFTY. The key to further upside in NIFTY is held by RELIANCE, HDFC twins, and BANK NIFTY, which has been under pressure for a long time. What do you feel? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 29-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Nifty makes a new ATH above 16700 but ends flat NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -25-08-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 16654 / 16712.45 / 16617.5 / 16634.65 H-L = 95 points VIX 13.5 / +2.35% FII DII: + -1,222 Crores Likely open: Flat to positive with resistance at 16650-700. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS Yet another gap-up opening that did not last for more than 2 hours. Nifty made a new ATH but was sold into. This is what has been happening. Yet, Nifty made a higher and a higher low and today’s low was above 16600 which is a quite a shift from below 16500 levels. Nifty ended flat, up by 10 points. Despite hitting a new ATH, Nifty ended the day with a hanging man candle or inverted hammer indicating selling pressure at higher levels. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 29 INFOSYS 23 ADANI PORTS 22 TCS 21 HDFC LIFE 14 TOTAL 109 The Draggers BAJAJ FINSERV 30 TITAN 17 ICICI BANK 10 BAJAJ FINANCE 9 JSW STEEL 08 TOTAL 74 Lifter - Draggers = +35 Despite a good +35 points positive on leaders to draggers basis, Nifty could muster a positive of only 10 points. This indicates the selling pressure intensity. POSITIVES NIFTY made yet another ATH Close and it also managed to register another ATH above 16700. RELIANCE ended the day above 2200. HDFC twins managed to remain more or less stable despite increased volatility. INFOSYS and TCS bounced back up after yesterday’s negative performance. NEGATIVES 16700 is a tough hurdle to cross this expiry as Nifty is unable to hold on to the level for long. Ahead of expiry both FIIs and DIIs have turned net sellers. BANK NIFTY fell almost 400 points after hitting 35910 which indicates that 36000 is a tough ask for the index to clear. TRADING RANGE FOR 25-8-21 The Nifty baseline moves up to 16450-500. The resistances are now from 16650 onwards. BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35000-35200 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS TATAMOTORS bounced back from 200 DMA in a good manner though it got sold in to at higher levels. This may have been caused by MARUTI which continues to be under pressure and every rise is getting sold into. Today it tested 6700 levels. The outlook is not great was the commentary by the leadership so this may have caused the prices to slide. What do you feel? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 25-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Nifty under severe pressure at ATH - Caution Ahead!NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -18-08-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 16691.95 / 16701.85 / 16535.85 / 16568.85 H-L = 166 VIX 12.91 / -3.72% FII DII: -1325 Crores Likely open: Negative to flat CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS Nifty touched 15701 for the first time and made yet another high. Nifty made a higher high and a higher low. The Nifty failed to hold on to the higher levels and was sold off after an hour from the morning and kept falling till the last one hour when there was a mild recovery. The fall was consistent indicating selling pressure around 16700. On daily charts, the candle looks bearish but with low volumes. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters BAJAJ FINANCE 55 BAJAJ FINSERV 29 RELIANCE 20 ADANI PORTS 17 ULTRATECH 15 TOTAL 136 The Draggers ICICI BANK 61 HDFC 34 KOTAK BANK 24 INFOSYS 20 SBI LIFE 15 TOTAL 154 Lifter - Draggers = -18 The selling appears to be quite intense and the heavyweights from key sectors have joined in to drag the indices down. POSITIVES Nifty made yet another ATH. HDFC BANK held on to 1500+ levels despite BANK NIFTY being under severe pressure. RELIANCE ended in the green even though it was modest. The fact that it did not join the sell-off is a big positive. NEGATIVES Key constituents of Nifty contributed significantly on the downside than what they have in the recent past on the up side. FIIs and DIIs have both turned net sellers. BANK NIFTY broke 35600 level and was down 800 points intraday. TRADING RANGE FOR 20-8-21 Nifty baseline moves down to 16450-500. BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35000-400 and resistance at 36200-36500. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS There was clearly something that was not visible to the naked eyes that is known to the FIIs-DIIs as the selling was consistent in Nifty and BANK NIFTY was even worse. As of 1255h on 19-8-21, SGX Nifty is down 290 points! There is something that has happened globally as well - if the US also trades in the negative, we may see a bloodbath tomorrow and the trend for the short term may change. What do you feel? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 18-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
IT and HUL end the day for Nifty past 16600NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -17-08-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 16545.25 / 16628.55 / 16495.4 / 16614.6 H-L = 133 VIX 13.41 / -0.37% FII DII: -77 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS Nifty closed above 16600 for the first time and close to the ATH level. Nifty made a higher high and a higher low. Nifty was facing resistance near the earlier day’s high and then fell sharply and recovered in the last hour or so. On daily charts, the candle looks strong with Ok volume. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters INFOSYS 27 TCS 10 HUL 09 NESTLE 08 WIPRO 07 TOTAL 61 The Draggers HDFC BANK 14 JSW STEEL 08 RELIANCE 06 ADANI PORTS 05 LT 04 TOTAL 37 Lifter - Draggers = 24 This explains why Nifty fell before recovering sharply. POSITIVES Nifty made yet another ATH and the first close above 16600. Nifty 50 IT members rallied behind the index and performed very well. INFOSYS and TCS in particular have been doing well for the past few sessions. MARUTI as well as TATA MOTORS made a good recovery from their lows. FIIs selling has reduced compared to yesterday. NEGATIVES HDFC BANK and RELIANCE did not end in the green and instead dragged the indices so some sort of pressure is likely unless they reverse. BANK NIFTY ended once again below 36000 ahead of the expiry day. Nifty futures trading at a discount to the spot at ATH is quite an unusual situation to have. TRADING RANGE FOR 18-8-21 Nifty baseline moves up to 1600-450. BANK NIFTY support base stays at 35600-800 and resistance at 36200-36500. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS WHen INFOSYS buyback was in the air, it was expected that it would happen around 1750. The day’s high was 1746.9. Nifty futures trading at a discount to the spot at ATH is quite an unusual situation to have. What do you feel? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 17-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Global cues forced Nifty to end below 16300NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -10-08-21 IN SUMMARY Open / High / Low / Close 16274.8 / 16359.25 / 16202.25 / 16228.10 Trading Range Low to High: 141 points Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 70.5 points India VIX: 12.71 / +0.79% FII DII activities: +511 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS Nifty made a higher and a higher low. This higher high was in terms of the ATH level of Nifty which was hit before 1100h. The not so encouraging European markets forced Nifty to end below 16300. Once again, Nifty has closed just around the open price and has formed another Doji pattern. TOP LOSERS CONTRIBUTING TO NIFTY FALL 5 scrips were responsible for dragging Nifty down by at least 105 points. These were: JSW STEEL SHREE CEMENT ITC BAJAJ FINSERV TATA STEEL TOP GAINERS CONTRIBUTING TO NIFTY BEING ABLE TO CLOSE IN GREEN Together these 5 contributed a gain of 105 points: HDFC INFOSYS RELIANCE BHARTI AIRTEL KOTAK BANK This is a great coincidence! Both the sides contributed 105 points on either side and this explains the Doji! POSITIVES Nifty ended above the open price. FII - DII net numbers are positive. HDFC BANK closed above 1500 for the second day. HDFC closed above the hard resistance of 2660. BANK NIFTY closed yet again above 36000. NEGATIVES MARUTI and TATA MOTORS remained under pressure after the morning spike on the way up. SBIN is still under pressure which is putting both the indices under pressure. 16300 appears to be a tough one even after HDFC twins have recovered from the slumber. RELIANCE was unable to hold on to 2100+ levels. TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 11-8-21 Nifty broad range for the week 16000-16500. As of now, it has not made any significant movement from where one could derive the likely supports and resistances. BANK NIFTY support base at 35200-600 and resistance at 36200-36500. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS When the price remains around the same number and the buyer's increases, it signals an upward move in the prices. This is what we have learned as one of the basic principles of demand and supply. If we club the Net FII DII of yesterday and today, it is just +6 Crores and a slightly higher close. This is quite an interesting situation to have and I would seek input from the readers if they have encountered such situations in the past. It appeared that in the closing minutes, Nifty moves were managed to close it near flat in line with the global cues. Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 10-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Nifty ends almost flat after failing to hold 16300NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -09-08-21 IN SUMMARY Open / High / Low / Close 16281.35 / 16320.75 / 16179.05 / 16258.25 Trading Range Low to High: 141 points Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 70.5 points India VIX: 12.61 / --0.00% FII DII activities: -505 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS Nifty made a slightly lower high and broke 16200 to make a lower low. It ended mildly positive which is comforting after it retested the opening low made on 4-8-21. 16300+ appears to be an issue for now as it could not clear the earlier high as well. Even though Nifty bounced back from the lows smartly, it ended the day with a Doji candle signaling indecisiveness which is confirmed by the fact that HDFC BANK struggled to hold 1500 levels and RELIANCE is unable to decide which way to go. Note: From today, I am switching over to an improved way of recording my analysis. As such instead of the Top 3 Gainers / Losers, I will state the top scrips that helped Nifty go up / down. Hope this helps. TOP LOSERS CONTRIBUTING TO NIFTY FALL 5 scrips were responsible for dragging Nifty down by at least 45 points. These were: RELIANCE JSW STEEL ADANI PORTS BAJAJ FINANCE LT TOP GAINERS CONTRIBUTING TO NIFTY BEING ABLE TO CLOSE IN GREEN Together these 5 contributed a gain of 77 points: HDFC BANK INFOSYS BAJAJ FINSERV ICICI BANK AXIS BANK So Nifty ended in +20 and this is how it was able to do so: Top 5 Lifters 77 Top 5 Draggers 45 Net 32 POSITIVES Nifty ended above 16250. FIIs have turned Net buyers even though in small numbers. HDFC BANK closed above 1500 for the first time after 16-7-21. It was ably supported by ICICI BANK, INFOSYS & AXIS BANK. BANK NIFTY closed above 36000. NEGATIVES RELIANCE made a quick dash to the 2065-70 area and is still below the crucial resistance line of 2080. SBIN is still under pressure possibly on account of the Vodafone exposure issue. 16300 appears to be a tough one to crack without the support of HDFC and RELIANCE. TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 10-8-21 Nifty broad range for the week 16000-16500. As of now, it has not made any significant movement from where one could derive the likely supports and resistances. BANK NIFTY support base at 35200-600 and resistance at 36200-36500. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS While MARUTI and TATA MOTORS were under selling pressure after hitting higher levels in the AM session, M&M has managed to hold on to higher levels and is doing well. It is quite an unusual situation to experience. What do you think could be the reason? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 9-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Nifty 16130 not outNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -03-08-21 IN SUMMARY Open / High / Low / Close 15951.55 / 16146.9 / 15914.35 / 16130.75 Trading Range Low to High: 232 points Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 116 points India VIX: 13.75 / +7.34% FII DII activities: +1818 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS What an impressive rally from Nifty - even on a 5-minute chart, only once it closed below the 20 MA and then never looked back! Nifty is now in the proverbial “uncharted territory”. The rally looks towering in comparison to other days when the range was becoming narrower by each passing session. There is nothing more that can be said as we have to now see how the week 1 of Aug 21 ends. TOP 3 LOSERS JSW STEEL - The fall is insignificant as such moves are expected when a scrip is in the resistance zone, but the overall positivity in the market has made it look the topmost loser. BAJAJ AUTO - Even when Nifty ended on an ATH close, it could start the scooter for a good ride up and above. Something is missing from its body and unless that is in place, the scooter may not start rolling again. SHREECEM - Yesterday’s top gainer is today’s loser. The typical resistance zone play seems to be in action. Wait and watch for now. TOP 3 GAINERS TITAN - Yesterday, it was gainer # 2, and today, it is the topmost gainer recording yet another ATH close for the scrip as it along with Nifty, sails in to the unknown and in my view, untapped territory. HDFC - The scrip that made all the difference in the mood today. It rose and flew up like a phoenix and took the whole market along with it. Interestingly, it is far away from its ATH and as of now, it is sitting right in the resistance zone so good volumes done today may help it hit out of the hurdles. INDUSIND BANK - The news re getting enrolled with RBI for Govt related transactions seems to have lifted this counter from the negative closes that it had been experiencing for the last several days. POSITIVES The index heavyweights have woken up from the slumber and all together and in style so Nifty could scale past 16100 as well without an issue. HDFC, RELIANCE, SBIN, AXIS BANK, TATA MOTORS, TCS, MARUTI, & INFOSYS all have contributed significantly which is a big positive. Bank Nifty closed above 35000 and has also closed the day above 20 as well as 50 DMA which is a good sign. NEGATIVES HDFCBANK under-performed yet again and in fact, it threatened to retest 1400 at the open but then recovered and moved sideways. It is still a few points away from the 200 DMA so it has the power to upset any plans that the other scrips may have to take Nifty up and above. Whereas Nifty has scaled ATH close, Bank Nifty is far away and is clearly under-performing. TRADING RANGE FOR 04-08-21 Nifty support is now at 16000-15950. The resistance zone is not known and would be driven by Bank Nifty or any other index heavyweight. BANKNIFTY support range gets upgraded to 34800-35000. There are many resistances ahead - 35400-500-650-750. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS Finally, FIIs have managed to end up as Net Buyers for +2000 Crores. This indicates that some more up move is in the offing. DIIs have started the process of booking gains so tomorrow HDFC may come under pressure as this is where they attack when FIIs turn buyers. Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 3-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Nifty Eyeing 15900+ close with a 100+ point bounceNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -02-08-21 IN SUMMARY Open / High / Low / Close 15874.9 / 15892.9 / 15834.65 / 15885.15 Trading Range Low to High: 58 points Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 29 points India VIX: 12.81 / +0.08% FII DII activities: -34 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS Once again the opening 5-minute candle had movements that almost covered the grinding moves of the entire day. And yet another close which is around the opening high although for good reasons it is slightly above the opening high. Nifty crawled through the day after opening on a strong note except the usual FII sell-off time of 1400h when it fell 40 odd points but recovered sharply to close at higher levels. Nifty has now made higher highs and higher lows and has taken support above the 20 DMA so that is likely to act as a support going forward. TOP 3 LOSERS UPL - After breaching the 50 DMA on Friday, it fell further as it failed to even breach the earlier close. The RSI on daily charts has fallen significantly and if it does not bounce off from here which is the mini support area, further drop to 745-50 area may be on the cards. TATA STEEL - After a dream run, the scrip encountered profit booking on the 2nd day in running as it failed to retest the Friday high and even breached the low. RSI is still bullish so the overall trend may be intact. BAJAJ FINSERV - Though unrelated to TATA STEEL, it has identical candles and the reading is also similar. TOP 3 GAINERS SHREECEM - An usual candidate for the spot, it has made a good move with volume and momentum after breaching the 50 DMA. It is now right in the resistance zone but the force with which it has risen indicates that it may clear it this time. TITAN - Another infrequent visitor to the spot, it is now back in the resistance zone but the volumes are not high so wait and watch for now. EICHER MOTORS - Yet another infrequent visitor to this club, it has taken support from the mini base and is now heading into the resistance of 20 DMA. It needs to be seen whether it clears or fails to do so. POSITIVES HDFC did not behave in an unruly manner post its results and managed to end the day on the 200 DMA with a spinning top candle with higher volume. This helped Nifty bounce back from the lows. RELIANCE, INFOSYS, TCS, AXISBANK & MARUTI supported Nifty and helped it stay well above the opening low. Nifty has finally managed to clear 15835 with a good distance and it took support from the line as it was the low for the day. NEGATIVES HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK, and KOTAK BANK underperformed yet again. KOTAK BANK appeared to be doing well, but was inspired by the negativity in HDFC BANK and fell from the day high in late trades. Nifty could not even retest 15900 levels and turned around from 15892 which indicates that FIIs are sitting with selling volumes around that level and unless a strong gap-up with momentum is seen on 3-8-21, we may once again be in a range-bound zone. TRADING RANGE FOR 03-08-21 Nifty support, for now, is at 15770-800-835. And resistances every few points. No point mentioning those again and again unless a close above 16000 takes place. BANKNIFTY support range 34400-500 and resistance 34800-35000. Unless there is a break-out or down, the range-bound behavior is likely to continue. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS FIIs relentless selling even on a day when Nifty ended +122 points. Today, for a change, DIIs have almost matched their buying with FIIs selling. I am really curious to know how come to these end up so close on many days - of course in the opposite direction? FIIs would have bought in huge quantities over the last several months that they are still selling when Nifty is now 100+ points away from 16000. Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 2-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT