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Are we really in a Bull Market with daily Sell-offs?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -14-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17420.35 / 17438.55 / 17367.05 / 17380.00 H-L = 77 points VIX 13.58 / -3.21% FII DII: +1330 Crores Likely open: Positive Gap-up provided it is able to stay above today’s close for an hour or so. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart A gap-up open and then a new ATH was flagged and then the usual drifting game started with the mandatory sell-off just after 1300h and then sideways moves that resulted in yet another ATH Close, but well below the ATH as well as daily high by 58 points. The daily chart indicates that there is a series of Doji-type candles - do they suggest a continuation pattern or exhaustion? I am not sure about it. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters TCS 09 HCL TECH 07 LT 07 KOTAK BANK 06 INDUSIND BANK 05 TOTAL 34 The Laggards HDFC 12 HDFC BANK 07 NESTLE 04 INFOSYS 04 HUL 04 TOTAL 33 Lifter - Draggers = +1 POSITIVES NIFTY closed at a new ATH and also hit a new ATH. TATAMOTORS, KOTAK BANK, TCS, and LT have shown strong momentum. NIFTY was resilient to a great extent as the day low was above 17350 and almost a 100 points above the low of the earlier session. FIIs have bought in excess of 1400 Crores. NEGATIVES RELIANCE, HDFC twins, and INFOSYS ended up dragging the indices from the higher plains. NIFTY is closing a well 58 points below the ATH. BANK NIFTY though ended in the green continues to under perform. TRADING RANGE FOR 15-09-21 17000-17200 is the support base.17400-450-500 may be the resistance area for NIFTY. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS They say looks are deceiving. And NIFTY is doing exactly the same. It is in a bull market, has made an ATH close after hitting an ATH high that was 58 points above the closing price. The first few minutes register a high and then the drifting game starts which at times results in sell-off and if it falls around 17300 or below, it bounces back and ends flat. I have been writing for over 2 years but I have not seen such situations happening around ATH levels. The manner in which the prices move of some of the heavyweights gives an indication that what is happening appears to be stage-managed as the candles on the daily charts would confirm so. When an index or a stock is at ATH, the path of least resistance should be on the upside. However, in the case of NIFTY, it is on the downside and that is what is surprising. INFOSYS, RELIANCE, HDFC BANK are being used to cap the upside in NIFTY for now as these three on their combined strength can lift NIFTY way beyond 17500. In the end, patience and the ability to read the intent of the market and the scrips is more likely to pay off than anything else. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 14-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
5
BANK NIFTY rescues NIFTY for a changeNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -08-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17375.75 / 17383.4 / 17254.20 / 17353.5 H-L = 149 points VIX 14.41 / -3.29% FII DII: -802 Crores Likely open: BANK NIFTY holds the key. Based on the numbers looks a flat to a positive open. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY played negative today and did not even bother to go past the opening high made and ended the day just below the P Close. In the process, it has not only done a lower high but also made a lower low by drifting towards 17250 and dangerously close it. Soon as Europe opened, the sell-off started and lasted for an hour or so, and then, there was the usual jerks-driven relief rally only to end flat. On the daily charts, it has formed a hammer pattern indicating good bounce from the lower areas. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters KOTAK BANK 03 HDFC BANK 03 ICICI BANK 02 TITAN 02 HUL 01 TOTAL 11 The Draggers NESTLE 04 INFOSYS 04 TCS 04 BAJAJ FINANCE 03 RELIANCE 03 TOTAL 18 Lifter - Draggers = -07 The above is what mattered in the end. It looks like the rest of the scrips had no role to play or it was too insignificant by EOD. POSITIVES NIFTY ended flat and recovered more than 90 points after the sell-off. BANK NIFTY changed the corner and was the savior for NIFTY. Even though the private banks have not contributed significantly, their not being negative helped the indices to maintain their levels. RELIANCE and HDFC recovered well from their respective lows which came in handy in ensuring that NIFTY closes flat. NEGATIVES NIFTY could not go anywhere near 17400. NIFTY breached the recent swing lows and drifted towards 17250. INFOSYS and TCS have been showing continued weakness. MARUTI has been falling yet again after a good recovery a couple of sessions ago. FIIs DIIs remain net sellers. TRADING RANGE FOR 08-09-21 17000-17200 is the support base.17400-450-500 may be the resistance area for NIFTY. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS The price action in INFOSYS appeared to be managed if one looks at the candles for the last 2 hours. There were spikes and sell-off as if 1700 CE writers had a point or two to prove in ending the day below 1700. MARUTI fell more than 1.5% but it seems to have made no impact on NIFTY which is indeed surprising as, at one stage, the fall was close to 100 points. The star of the day was KOTAK BANK as it almost single-handedly changed the tide for NIFTY and therefore BANK NIFTY. The strong up move prompted other banks to also chip in. It now needs to be seen if it can hold on to the momentum possibly created by it being included in the LIC IPO proceedings. Interesting expiry tomorrow - will the God that rings in Auspicious Beginnings help NIFTY close the week at a new ATH? Or will the IT biggies with RELIANCE like to keep dragging NIFTY? Wait and Watch! What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 08-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
What would happen if US markets were non-existent?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -07-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17401.55 / 17436.5 / 17287.00 / 17362.1 H-L = 149 points VIX 14.9 / -0.34% FII DII: -283 Crores Likely open: Flat to positive if BANK NIFTY turns green. Today’s low is crucial for the short term and for the week as this is a short week with only 2 sessions remaining before the week ends. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY crossed 17400 yet again and made a new high at 17436. During the day, it remained very volatile on account of BANK NIFTY and even broke 17300 momentarily and then hit a fresh ATH. However, that was also sold in to and the day ended on a flat note. During the day, NIFTY took support from 200 MA on the 5-minute chart. On the daily charts, NIFTY has formed yet another Doji / Spinning top indicating indecisive approach. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters HDFC 27 RELIANCE 11 BHARTI AIRTEL 06 ITC 04 HDFC BANK 02 TOTAL 50 The Draggers INFOSYS 18 TCS 08 BAJAJ FINANCE 06 ICICI BANK 06 AXIS BANK 06 TOTAL 44 Lifter - Draggers = +06 POSITIVES NIFTY hit a fresh ATH. HDFC made a roaring comeback as a leader and closed above 2800 psycho level. RELIANCE also managed to hold on to the 2400+ levels and closed above the earlier close. HDFC BANK made a good recovery after the morning shake-out and help prevent a further slide in BANK NIFTY. NEGATIVES BANK NIFTY keeps underperforming and is facing the Sell on Rise type of situation. After a smart recovery by INFOSYS yesterday, it almost reversed all the gains impacting TCS as well. NIFTY unable to close in green leave aside above 17400 is not a good sign. FIIs DIIs are both net sellers. TRADING RANGE FOR WB 07-09-21 17000-17200 is the support base. I do not know what the upper levels may be. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS Despite HDFC BANK bouncing back 20+ points from the lows, BANK NIFTY ended way below the P Close. This is surprising and possibly indicates how important ICICI BANK and AXIS BANK have become for the index. Amidst pressure from BANK NIFTY, NIFTY could not hold 17300 levels also and dipped for a while and then recovered smartly. I am wondering what would happen if US markets were non-existent? Clearly, in the absence of any clues from the big brother, our indices chose to play safe and ended flat to negative. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 07-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
RELIANCE & INFOSYS Save the day for NIFTY NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -03-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17399.35 / 17429.55 / 17345.55 / 17377.8 H-L = +84 points VIX 15.11 / +3.92% FII DII: -42 Crores Likely open: Unable to read - as today US markets are also closed so indices may consolidate again unless a heavyweight does some interesting moves. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY crossed 17400 as well in the first half an hour but failed to hold on to the same. NIFTY ended the day on yet another ATH close. A higher high and a higher low has been created. On the Daily charts a Doji has been formed indicating indecision. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 28 INFOSYS 23 WIPRO 11 HCL TECH 06 GRASIM 03 TOTAL 71 The Draggers HDFC BANK 10 ICICI BANK 05 KOTAK BANK 04 IOC 03 ITC 02 TOTAL 24 Lifter - Draggers = +47 The towering presence of RELIANCE & INFOSYS changed the fortunes for NIFTY. POSITIVES INFOSYS has made a strong recovery and is now coming close to the ATH levels hit a few days ago. RELIANCE closed at ATH of 2400+. NIFTY hit a new ATH above 17400. NIFTY closed in the green despite pressure from BANK NIFTY. NEGATIVES HDFC BANK, ICICI BANK & KOTAK BANK dragged BANK NIFTY and therefore NIFTY as well. BANK NIFTY closed near the day’s low and below 36600. FII DII is net negative of 42 Crores. BANK NIFTY could not go closer to 37000. TRADING RANGE FOR WB 07-09-21 17000-17200 is the support base. I do not know what the upper levels may be. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS BANK NIFTY trading range was 369 points only which means that the index is getting ready for a big move on either side. It has the tendency to surprise the participants so we will need to wait and watch. NIFTY ended in the green only because of RELIANCE & INFOSYS. RELIANCE fell sharply from the day’s high of 2480+ to end at 2425. RELIANCE and BANK NIFTY hold the key for tomorrow. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 06-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
1
RELIANCE towers over NIFTY batting 17323NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -03-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17262.45 / 17340.1 / 17212.2 / 17323.6 H-L = +186 points VIX 14.54 / +2.11% FII DII: +1436 Crores Likely open: Positive but there may be selling pressure if BANK NIFTY does not support it. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS A good gap-up opening and then the typical retest of P Close. This is how NIFTY moved in the AM session. Then, NIFTY retested and crossed the opening high and fell again to retest the P Close and recovered smartly to end the day closer to the ATH. On a 5 minute chart, NIFTY looks highly volatile as if we are seeing a BANK NIFTY chart. On the weekly chart, NIFTY shows a strong bullish candle that has not been seen for the last several weeks. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 63 TITAN 09 INFOSYS 07 IOC 05 EICHER MOTORS 03 TOTAL 87 The Draggers HDFC BANK 10 HDFC 09 HDFC LIFE 06 HUL 05 BHARTI AIRTEL 02 TOTAL 32 Lifter - Draggers = +55 The towering presence of RELIANCE is what changed the fortunes of NIFTY. POSITIVES RELIANCE soared and closed the week in style at a new ATH. INFOSYS restored the 1700 level and is now above its 200 DMA. Despite the negative news, MARUTI closed higher and at one stage looked set to retest 7000. FIIs DIIs are both Net Buyers. NEGATIVES BANK NIFTY continues to underperform. HDFC triplets were on the other side of RELIANCE. They perhaps tried to justify their might. TRADING RANGE FOR WB 06-09-21 17000-17200 is the support base. I do not know what the upper levels may be. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS The NIFTY rally is now becoming a stock driven rally possibly indicating exhaustion at higher levels and the coming week may see some profit booking. Today it was RELIANCE and next week it could be INFOSYS and HDFC family. It is time to turn cautious until BANK NIFTY closes well above 37200 as the index has the potential to drag NIFTY and upset the party. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 03-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
NIFTY scales new peak and closes as well around the peakNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -02-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17095.4 / 17245.5 / 17059.7 / 17234.15 H-L = +186 points VIX 14.24 / +0.357% FII DII: +729 Crores Likely open: Positive but there may be consolidation taking place as the Net Volume of FIIs DIIs is not significant. And all eyes on where the week closes - above 17200? CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY made a new ATH and closed also at a new ATH which is closer to the ATH level indicating a strong close. However, NIFTY had almost retested the lows of yesterday in the opening candle itself but they smartly recovered within the first 5 minutes and then never looked back. The ride to the top was somewhat choppy and not smooth and the biggest move of the day happened in the first 5-minute candle itself. The rest were climbing the proverbial Wall of Worry. That also justifies the slight jump in the VIX. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters TCS 25 RELIANCE 18 HDFC LIFE 15 SHREE CEMENTS 13 HUL 10 TOTAL 81 The Draggers M&M 04 BAJAJ FINSERV 03 BAJAJ FINANCE 02 DIVIS LABS 02 TATA MOTORS 01 TOTAL 12 Lifter - Draggers = +69 There was not much negativity and that is what has propelled NIFTY to scale a new peak. POSITIVES Despite INFOSYS not being able to contribute, TCS led from the front and put up a great show of strength. Clearly, it has come a long way. The FMCG giant HUL too has been keeping pace which is a good sign. HDFC twins and RELIANCE also ended in the green. RELIANCE crossed 2300 but ended the day just below the line. FIIs DIIs are both Net Buyers. NEGATIVES BANK NIFTY is finding it hard to cross the 37000 lines. MARUTI as well as TATA MOTORS are under some sort of pressure on account of the semiconductor news. These two need to move up firmly as they have been trading within a range for a while now. INFOSYS made a deep dive to 1663 and recovered in the late trade but closed a few points below its 20 DMA. On account of its weightage, it is important that it restores 1700+ levels for NIFTY to remain above 17200. TRADING RANGE FOR 03-09-21 17000-17300 is the range that I can think of for the final day of the week. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS The tendency of a scrip to go below its key moving averages and then make an attempt to come back up is a good sign indicating that the selling pressure has been exhausted for now and renewed buying interest has taken place. This is what seems to be happening in INFOSYS. Tomorrow’s session will decide on whether it reclaims 1700 level or faces some hurdle around the 20 DMA resting at 1690. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 02-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Back to the old tussle - FIIs Vs DIIs and Nifty slipsNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -01-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17185.6 / 17225.75 / 17055.05 / 17076.25 H-L = 170 points VIX 14.19 / -2.27% FII DII: +621 Crores Likely open: Positive and interesting to see how Nifty reacts as this would be the first expiry in the 17000 zones. The big Q is will it hold the key level? CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY made yet another high and a higher low as well. The higher high could not be sustained due to intense selling pressure from some of the heavyweights which dragged the index below 17100. The daily charts indicate that there was selling pressure but the volume is not higher than yesterday’s session. This is more of a profit booking drive that has been undertaken by the FIIs who have been consistently buying in the cash market for the last several sessions. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters ASIAN PAINTS 11 NESTLE 09 RELIANCE 07 SBI LIFE 07 AXIS BANK 06 TOTAL 40 The Draggers INFOSYS 25 HDFC 22 TCS 19 BAJAJ FINSERV 14 TATA STEEL 07 TOTAL 87 Lifter - Draggers = -47 Of the 55 negative points, 47 have come per above. This is the might of these scrips. POSITIVES NIFTY hit another ATH above 17200. BANK NIFTY ended above 36500 and ended in the good green despite heavy selling in NIFTY. RELIANCE did not end in red. HDFC BANK more or less held its ground. NEGATIVES IT heavyweights have been witnessing selling pressure for the last few sessions. NIFTY failed to close above the P Close. NIFTY fell close to 17050 and tomorrow is expiry so volatility may be high. DIIs have begun banking gains which led to selling pressure. TRADING RANGE FOR 02-09-21 16950-17250 is the range that I can think of for the week. NIFTY may consolidate between these levels until either is broken on a closing basis. BANK NIFTY support base moves up to 36200-400 and resistance at 36800-37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS With the change in the lot size of NIFTY from Aug 2021, NIFTY has become more volatile and now with it being above 17000, a 150 point move on either side is also less than 1% move which is what needs to be digested by the traders. It has now started giving the kind of moves that BANK NIFTY used to give. Around March 2020, BANK NIFTY had reached levels around 16500-17000. Today, NIFTY is at 17000+ and we are around 17 months away from those days. This is the power of the stock market. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 01-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
FIIs show their might as NIFTY surges past 17100 with easeNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -31-08-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 16947.5 / 17153.5 / 16915.85 / 17132.2 H-L = 238 points VIX 14.52 / +9.01% FII DII: +1909 Crores Likely open: Positive but profit booking may kick in if Global cues do not support. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS And the surge continued today as well and NIFTY finally sailed past 17000 with relative ease and ended comfortably above 17100. It appeared that it may retest levels below 16900, but then it quickly recovered and then never looked back except for the lunch session quick fall which was bought in ti by the bears. NIFTY is likely to set its own course as it builds its bases in the newer zones. The daily charts indicate a strong bullish candle. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters BAJAJ FINANCE 38 TCS 16 BAJAJ FINSERV 16 HDFC 14 BHARTI AIRTEL 12 TOTAL 96 The Draggers RELIANCE 07 NESTLE 04 TATAMOTORS 02 INDUSIND 01 BPCL 01 TOTAL 15 Lifter - Draggers = +81 The above indicates that a larger base of scrips in the NIFTY family helped it close above 17100. POSITIVES NIFTY crossed 17000 and closed above 17100 with ease. BANK NIFTY finally emerged out of the resistances and soared which helped NIFTY. Broader market participation resulted in NIFTY scaling higher levels with relative ease. FIIs are back with a bang in the buying business and clearly, this had a positive impact on NIFTY. Top 5 NIFTY heavyweights ended the month at their respective ATH which is a great positive. NEGATIVES BANK NIFTY kept underperforming and had a very narrow range for the day. VIX is up 9% as shorters would have been forced to run cover. RELIANCE as usual chose not to participate in the rally and this alone has the potential to be a spoilsport for NIFTY. DIIs have sold heavily indicating that from their viewpoint, the short-term top is nearing or has been reached. TRADING RANGE FOR 01-09-21 At best 17000 base is what I can think of for now. We will need to see how the index moves during the week before deciding on the levels. BANK NIFTY support base stays at 35400-500 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS Top 5 heavyweights of NIFTY recorded ATH close on monthly candles. Like RELIANCE, KOTAK BANK also has the tendency to play its own game. Except that today HDFC BANK also joined it and saved BANK NIFTY from slipping from the lower levels. BANK NIFTY has formed a Doji candle on the daily chart with good volumes. It is a sign of caution or a positive move ahead. We will need to wait and watch. As long as HDFC BANK stays positive, it will handle BANK NIFTY on the upside. What do you feel? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 31-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
NIFTY ends the week on a high note at 16705NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -27-08-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 16642.55 / 16722.05 / 16565.7 / 16705.2 H-L = 157 points VIX 13.41 / -0.96% FII DII: +868 Crores Likely open: Positive but may get sold into and then recovery is likely. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY not only ended the day but also the week at a record high of 16705.2. It has made a higher high, highest close but with a lower high. After a flat sort of opening, it was sold in to and then rose sharply and after clearing 16650, it kept climbing gradually through the day. On the daily as well as the weekly charts, NIFTY has formed nice bullish candles rejecting the lower levels around 16550-600. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters TCS 09 LT 09 BAJAJ FINSERV 07 SBI LIFE 06 HDFC 05 TOTAL 36 The Draggers INFOSYS 12 HDFC BANK 05 RELIANCE 02 NESTLE 02 M&M 01 TOTAL 19 Lifter - Draggers = +17 The above indicates that a larger base of scrips in the NIFTY family helped it pass the ATH level and close also at a new ATH. POSITIVES NIFTY ended the day as well as the week at a new ATH and above 16700. DIIs have bought significantly at ATH which is a big plus indicating that there is good upside potential in-store in the coming weeks/months. VIX has cooled down. 39/50 scrips ended in the green. MARUTI which had been falling consistently ended in a minor positive. This could have a sentimental impact on the other sectoral scrips as well. NEGATIVES INFOSYS is showing signs of fatigue in the short term. RELIANCE as well appears to be losing momentum as it approaches the resistance area around 2250. BANK NIFTY continues to underperform. TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 30-8-21 The Nifty baseline moves up to 16500-550. The resistances are not known for now. BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35000-35200 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS The new SEBI regulations re no leverage come into force from 01 Sep and this could have an impact on Options pricing as more traders may switch to Options from EQUITY intraday trading as the margin benefit gets reduced. UPSTOX has delayed intraday EQ profit credit from T+1 days to T+2 days to prevent a potential margin shortfall and resultant penalty. If others also follow suit, this could create more pressure on the intraday EQ-only traders to move to Options. Even when NIFTY is at a new ATH, several scrips look beaten down and far from their ATH. This could be a double-edged sword for the scrips as well as for NIFTY. The key to further upside in NIFTY is held by RELIANCE, HDFC twins, and BANK NIFTY, which has been under pressure for a long time. What do you feel? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 29-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Nifty makes a new ATH above 16700 but ends flat NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -25-08-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 16654 / 16712.45 / 16617.5 / 16634.65 H-L = 95 points VIX 13.5 / +2.35% FII DII: + -1,222 Crores Likely open: Flat to positive with resistance at 16650-700. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS Yet another gap-up opening that did not last for more than 2 hours. Nifty made a new ATH but was sold into. This is what has been happening. Yet, Nifty made a higher and a higher low and today’s low was above 16600 which is a quite a shift from below 16500 levels. Nifty ended flat, up by 10 points. Despite hitting a new ATH, Nifty ended the day with a hanging man candle or inverted hammer indicating selling pressure at higher levels. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 29 INFOSYS 23 ADANI PORTS 22 TCS 21 HDFC LIFE 14 TOTAL 109 The Draggers BAJAJ FINSERV 30 TITAN 17 ICICI BANK 10 BAJAJ FINANCE 9 JSW STEEL 08 TOTAL 74 Lifter - Draggers = +35 Despite a good +35 points positive on leaders to draggers basis, Nifty could muster a positive of only 10 points. This indicates the selling pressure intensity. POSITIVES NIFTY made yet another ATH Close and it also managed to register another ATH above 16700. RELIANCE ended the day above 2200. HDFC twins managed to remain more or less stable despite increased volatility. INFOSYS and TCS bounced back up after yesterday’s negative performance. NEGATIVES 16700 is a tough hurdle to cross this expiry as Nifty is unable to hold on to the level for long. Ahead of expiry both FIIs and DIIs have turned net sellers. BANK NIFTY fell almost 400 points after hitting 35910 which indicates that 36000 is a tough ask for the index to clear. TRADING RANGE FOR 25-8-21 The Nifty baseline moves up to 16450-500. The resistances are now from 16650 onwards. BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35000-35200 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS TATAMOTORS bounced back from 200 DMA in a good manner though it got sold in to at higher levels. This may have been caused by MARUTI which continues to be under pressure and every rise is getting sold into. Today it tested 6700 levels. The outlook is not great was the commentary by the leadership so this may have caused the prices to slide. What do you feel? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 25-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Nifty under severe pressure at ATH - Caution Ahead!NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -18-08-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 16691.95 / 16701.85 / 16535.85 / 16568.85 H-L = 166 VIX 12.91 / -3.72% FII DII: -1325 Crores Likely open: Negative to flat CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS Nifty touched 15701 for the first time and made yet another high. Nifty made a higher high and a higher low. The Nifty failed to hold on to the higher levels and was sold off after an hour from the morning and kept falling till the last one hour when there was a mild recovery. The fall was consistent indicating selling pressure around 16700. On daily charts, the candle looks bearish but with low volumes. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters BAJAJ FINANCE 55 BAJAJ FINSERV 29 RELIANCE 20 ADANI PORTS 17 ULTRATECH 15 TOTAL 136 The Draggers ICICI BANK 61 HDFC 34 KOTAK BANK 24 INFOSYS 20 SBI LIFE 15 TOTAL 154 Lifter - Draggers = -18 The selling appears to be quite intense and the heavyweights from key sectors have joined in to drag the indices down. POSITIVES Nifty made yet another ATH. HDFC BANK held on to 1500+ levels despite BANK NIFTY being under severe pressure. RELIANCE ended in the green even though it was modest. The fact that it did not join the sell-off is a big positive. NEGATIVES Key constituents of Nifty contributed significantly on the downside than what they have in the recent past on the up side. FIIs and DIIs have both turned net sellers. BANK NIFTY broke 35600 level and was down 800 points intraday. TRADING RANGE FOR 20-8-21 Nifty baseline moves down to 16450-500. BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35000-400 and resistance at 36200-36500. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS There was clearly something that was not visible to the naked eyes that is known to the FIIs-DIIs as the selling was consistent in Nifty and BANK NIFTY was even worse. As of 1255h on 19-8-21, SGX Nifty is down 290 points! There is something that has happened globally as well - if the US also trades in the negative, we may see a bloodbath tomorrow and the trend for the short term may change. What do you feel? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 18-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
IT and HUL end the day for Nifty past 16600NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -17-08-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 16545.25 / 16628.55 / 16495.4 / 16614.6 H-L = 133 VIX 13.41 / -0.37% FII DII: -77 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS Nifty closed above 16600 for the first time and close to the ATH level. Nifty made a higher high and a higher low. Nifty was facing resistance near the earlier day’s high and then fell sharply and recovered in the last hour or so. On daily charts, the candle looks strong with Ok volume. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters INFOSYS 27 TCS 10 HUL 09 NESTLE 08 WIPRO 07 TOTAL 61 The Draggers HDFC BANK 14 JSW STEEL 08 RELIANCE 06 ADANI PORTS 05 LT 04 TOTAL 37 Lifter - Draggers = 24 This explains why Nifty fell before recovering sharply. POSITIVES Nifty made yet another ATH and the first close above 16600. Nifty 50 IT members rallied behind the index and performed very well. INFOSYS and TCS in particular have been doing well for the past few sessions. MARUTI as well as TATA MOTORS made a good recovery from their lows. FIIs selling has reduced compared to yesterday. NEGATIVES HDFC BANK and RELIANCE did not end in the green and instead dragged the indices so some sort of pressure is likely unless they reverse. BANK NIFTY ended once again below 36000 ahead of the expiry day. Nifty futures trading at a discount to the spot at ATH is quite an unusual situation to have. TRADING RANGE FOR 18-8-21 Nifty baseline moves up to 1600-450. BANK NIFTY support base stays at 35600-800 and resistance at 36200-36500. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS WHen INFOSYS buyback was in the air, it was expected that it would happen around 1750. The day’s high was 1746.9. Nifty futures trading at a discount to the spot at ATH is quite an unusual situation to have. What do you feel? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 17-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Global cues forced Nifty to end below 16300NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -10-08-21 IN SUMMARY Open / High / Low / Close 16274.8 / 16359.25 / 16202.25 / 16228.10 Trading Range Low to High: 141 points Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 70.5 points India VIX: 12.71 / +0.79% FII DII activities: +511 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS Nifty made a higher and a higher low. This higher high was in terms of the ATH level of Nifty which was hit before 1100h. The not so encouraging European markets forced Nifty to end below 16300. Once again, Nifty has closed just around the open price and has formed another Doji pattern. TOP LOSERS CONTRIBUTING TO NIFTY FALL 5 scrips were responsible for dragging Nifty down by at least 105 points. These were: JSW STEEL SHREE CEMENT ITC BAJAJ FINSERV TATA STEEL TOP GAINERS CONTRIBUTING TO NIFTY BEING ABLE TO CLOSE IN GREEN Together these 5 contributed a gain of 105 points: HDFC INFOSYS RELIANCE BHARTI AIRTEL KOTAK BANK This is a great coincidence! Both the sides contributed 105 points on either side and this explains the Doji! POSITIVES Nifty ended above the open price. FII - DII net numbers are positive. HDFC BANK closed above 1500 for the second day. HDFC closed above the hard resistance of 2660. BANK NIFTY closed yet again above 36000. NEGATIVES MARUTI and TATA MOTORS remained under pressure after the morning spike on the way up. SBIN is still under pressure which is putting both the indices under pressure. 16300 appears to be a tough one even after HDFC twins have recovered from the slumber. RELIANCE was unable to hold on to 2100+ levels. TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 11-8-21 Nifty broad range for the week 16000-16500. As of now, it has not made any significant movement from where one could derive the likely supports and resistances. BANK NIFTY support base at 35200-600 and resistance at 36200-36500. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS When the price remains around the same number and the buyer's increases, it signals an upward move in the prices. This is what we have learned as one of the basic principles of demand and supply. If we club the Net FII DII of yesterday and today, it is just +6 Crores and a slightly higher close. This is quite an interesting situation to have and I would seek input from the readers if they have encountered such situations in the past. It appeared that in the closing minutes, Nifty moves were managed to close it near flat in line with the global cues. Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 10-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT