Get started

Infosys

Simple Trade Setup | INFOSYS | 14-10-2021 [INTRADAY]NSE:INFY Observations: 1) On 1 day time frame, we can see that now it closed above 50DMA as well as 1700 critical level. Which is a good sign. Downside breakdown of it, may result in profit booking. Please refer below chart : 1day Time Frame. 2) On 1 hour time frame, for short duration we can see rounding bottom pattern in formation. Neckline is at 1730 level. If it opens gap up above neckline and test 1730 level and takes support from it then it will give bullish move. But if it breaks down then it have immediate support at 1700 level. Please refer below chart : 1hour Time Frame. We can also see the critical resistance range of 1730-1740. Above this range it will be bullish. ------------------------------------- For positional buy trade safe buy will be above 1740 level only. Short to Mid term target will be 1850-1880 level. Keep SL as per your convenience. ------------------------------------- Trade Setup for Date 14-10-2021: 1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action. 2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand. 3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level. 4) Avoid gap up or gap down chase. Wait and trade between levels. Please refer below chart for levels. Hope I made it easy to understand it. Do comment your doubt or suggestion. Note: Trade with Strict SL. It may or may not hit all the levels. So one can book profit / loss at respective level considering how price action works near that level.
NSE:INFY
by Trading_hawk
14
Infosys Q2 results based strategies INFOSYS Q2 RESULT BASED STRATEGIES The IT heavyweight is scheduled to declare its results tomorrow. However, I am not sure at what time the results are likely to be declared so am creating the strategy now itself and have this post cum video explaining the basis on which I have created the strategy only for the purposes of tracking I have not taken a position. If I do take, I will let you know. Infosys has been behaving in a very unusual manner for quite some time. Either it goes up quickly and then abruptly falls and then goes in to a drifting mode then leading to consolidation. I have traded Long Only options in the scrip and have gained good ROI. However, for the last few weeks I have stayed away from all IT scrips in Options as the behavior is not something that I like to trade. Infosys Spot is at 1673 when I am writing this post so my strategies would be based on the same. Please watch the video to know the workings related to the strategy.
NSE:INFY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
IT "glitch" drags Nifty below 17950 from 18040+NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -11-10-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17867.55 H 18041.95 L 17839.10 C 17945.95 EOD - +50.75 points /+0.28% SGX Nifty at 1930h =20points FII DII = -1676 Crores. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened a mild gap up and then sold off to 8-10 low level and then, made a strong and sustained recovery to clear 18000 in style and then topped 18040 as well. However, by then FTSE had opened and the usual nervousness walked in and then there was a sell-off over the next 3 hours. Yet again, Nifty ended the day 90+ points below the ATH level achieved during the day. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 72 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 87 Net = -15 POSITIVES Nifty hit an All Time High above 18000. Nifty ended at yet another ATH close. HDFC was very volatile but settled in the green on an EOD basis. HDFC Bank seems to be pricing in a good result like how TCS did. Bank Nifty hit a new ATH and also ended at a new ATH. NEGATIVES IT big heads dragged Nifty in a big way. I do not recall TCS falling more than 3% post results in the recent past. Though this was to happen as it was at a very critical level below 4000. Reliance lost more than 60 points after hitting an ATH of 2720. TRADING RANGE FOR the coming week Nifty 17700-750 is the support base. I am not sure about the resistance levels as price action in Infosys, Wipro, as well as HDFC Bank may keep driving Nifty as they get ready to receive their answer papers during the next few days. Bank Nifty Support = 37500-700 appears to be a good support area. Since the ATH was hit today, I will let the index play its game for a couple of days and see where it ends the week before commenting on any resistance levels. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS Nifty low for the day was just 1 point below 8-10 low and high for the day was 100 points above 8-10 high and yet Nifty managed to close only 50 points above 8-10 Close. This seems to be a mathematical play! The contribution by Nifty top 5 performers fell short by 15 points from the top 5 draggers of the Index. This is the kind of weakness and negativity that was driven by the IT index and that is why the subject line of the post. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 11-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
2
TCS Q2 results based strategies - OutcomeTCS Q2 RESULT BASED STRATEGIES - OUTCOME The IT heavyweight is scheduled to declare its results today after market hours. This is the reason I thought of doing a post cum video explaining the basis on which I have created the strategy only for the purposes of tracking and till the time of writing this post and creating the video related to it, I have not taken a position. If I do take, I will let you know in the weekend post. TCS hit a New All-Time High of 3989 and at the time of writing this post, it is around 3950. I already have other FNO positions on so I do not have spare capital to deploy so this approach. Please watch the video to know how the strategies performed and what I ended up doing when the scrip fell down by 6%+. I have chosen to track the following strategies: Bull Call Spread: In creating the spread, I have bought 3960 CE and shorted 4000 CE. The details of the cost, pay-off, and the associated risk as well as the capital needed have been explained in the short and crisp video. In the worst case, there is a loss of 4K and in the best case, a gain of 6K. In my view, this is a good risk-reward considering the fact that there could be wild movements in a scrip post its results and TCS has moved 2-3% in the past around such events. Outcome: At 1100hours = Spread Value When Created = 14 At 1100h = 03 Being a Bull CE spread, the value should have gone up for us to make money Gain / Loss = -11*300 = -3300 Capital deployed Incl MTM Loss provision = 80,000 ROI = -4% ATM Short Straddle: In this, I have shorted 3960 CE as well as PE. the details of the cost, pay-off, and the associated risk as well as the capital needed have been explained in the short and crisp video. The margin requirement is quite high so even if I create a strategy by EOD, I would not go for this. The Max gain is around 65K and obviously, the loss in unlimited as Options are being shorted. Though one can always keep an SL or exit when the spot reaches a pre-decided level. Generally, short strategies are useful when the implied volatility is high prior to the event and the position gains as the VIX cools off after the event. At 1100hours = Straddle Value When Created = 225 At 1100h = 293 Being a Short Straddle, the value should have gone DOWN for us to make money. Gain / Loss = -68*300 = -20400 Capital deployed Incl MTM Loss provision = 350,000 ROI = -5.83% I will post an outcome video as well on 11-10-21 so stay tuned! Till then, Keep learning & making money but at all times, please assign topmost priority to your capital and do all that is needed to stay in the game with it! Best wishes. Umesh 8-10-21 & 11-10-21
NSE:TCS
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Swing Trading Opportunities for the week beginning 11-10-21TRADING WATCHLIST FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING 11-10-21 INTENT I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check out if any of these fit your trade plan. ON MY WATCHLIST FOR THE COMING WEEK This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week - WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS Asian Paints BPCL HDFC ICICI Bank Tata Consumer Force Motors HDFC AMC HPL Bayer Crop Bombay Burmah Bector Foods Engineers India Idea SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS- Auto Media PSU Bank Ideally, the best candidate would be the one that features in both lists. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded. I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so. In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn. Thank you for your time and Happy Learning, Umesh 10-10--21 Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
NSE:BBTCLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Nifty rebounds in style but ends below 17800NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -07-10-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17810.55 H 17857.55 L 17763.80 C 17790.35 EOD +144.35 points /+-0.82% SGX Nifty @ 1735h 17847 / +25 points FII DII = It is a bit early for the data to be released. DIIs may have sold. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart A strong 150 point gap up opening and then it moved in a sideways range and as FTSE open neared, it headed higher but could not decisively cross 17850 even on a 5-minute chart for more than one candle. The expiry blues entered in the last hour and Nifty drifted towards 17800 and then broke the level as 17800 CE would have been written aggressively. It gave up most of the gains made during the day and closed below 17800. The daily chart indicates a Doji as the Open and Close prices were quite close. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 98 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 20 Net = +78 POSITIVES Auto and IT leaders took the lead and held Nifty higher. The supremacy was evident as even the HDFC twins could not drag Nifty as they may have liked to do. ICICI Bank closed above 700. Reliance held on to the greener zone. HDFC Bank held on to 1600 plus levels. NEGATIVES HDFC ended in red and is finding it hard to sustain closings above 2750. Except for ICICI Bank, all leading banks ended in the red and that is what prevented Bank Nifty from attempting a hit to 38000. TRADING RANGE FOR 8-10-21 Nifty 17600-650-700 is the support base. Resistance regrettably is at every nook and corner of the charts starting from 17800-820-850-900. Bank Nifty Support = 37200-400 appears to be a good support area. Resistance 37800-38000-38200. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS If you closely look at the OHLC numbers and intraday charts of the indices, you would realize that the moves for the day were such that they negated what happened yesterday. The indices are just around the levels where they were on EOD 5-10-21. This means that we are still not out of the woods. Tomorrow is the RBI policy so there may be some jerks experienced, however, in he recent times, the announcements have become a non-event. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 7-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
1
NIFTY ends the week above 17500NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -01-10-21 Note: I had done a video upload for this analysis, however, for some reason, it failed. NIFTY O H L C C - PC H-L VIX FII DII Net Cum Likely Open 1-10-21 17,531.90 17,557.15 17,452.90 17,532.05 17,532.05 104.25 17.21 131 -613 -482 -482 Flat CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 M Chart Global cues inspired gap-down was severe as it not only meant NIFTY opened below 17600, but it managed to drag NIFTY all the way down to 17450! In all, there were 3 attempts made to recovery and cross 17550 level and all three failed. NIFTY ended at the open price - a Doji pattern indicating indecisiveness as the big bro in the US was not yet awake to guide the family. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS M&M 4.00 BAJAJ FINSERV 19.00 IOC 3.00 BAJAJ FINANCE 17.00 RELIANCE 3.00 HDFC 15.00 JSW STEEL 3.00 ICICI BANK 12.00 HDFC LIFE 3.00 HDFC BANK 11.00 16.00 74.00 LIFTERS - LAGGARDS -58.00 POSITIVES The only saving grace for NIFTY was that RELIANCE ended above 2500 and in the green. This helped NIFTY close above 17500. Similarly, for BANK NIFTY the saving grace is that it ended above 37200. NEGATIVES On an intraday basis, BANK NIFTY broke 37000 without any hesitation. HDFC twins along with BAJAJ twins were in no mood to stay positive and were soaked in negativity. TRADING RANGE FOR THE W/B 4-10-21: Without knowing how US markets end, it may be a bit early to state the levels, but from what it looks like, the following levels may well hold for now: NIFTY 17400-450 Support and plenty of resistances. No point listing them all. Unless Nifty closes above 17750, we will keep witnessing selling pressure. BANK NIFTY - 36500-800 Support and 37500-800-38000 as the key resistance areas. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS What a dampening start to the October series! Considered to be a bullish month, Indices end in red yet again falling in line with the Global cues. Today, I kept the FTSE chart open from the time it opened and the indices moved in line. I am wondering if our markets are so dependent on the global cues that they ignore some of the positives that are available locally? SGX NIFTY @ 1930h +100 points! What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 1-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
INFOSYS drags NIFTY while BANK NIFTY hits new ATHNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -27-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17932.2 / 17943.5 / 17,802.90 / 17,855.10 H-L = 141 points VIX 18.05 / +6.68% FII DII: +803 Crores SGX NIFTY @1917H - 17825 / -30 points Likely open: Flat to mild positive. 17850-900 is the next hurdle. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart A gap-up opening was held for a while but NIFTY failed to even retest the ATH hit on last Friday and then gradually sold off led by INFOSYS and TCS. It then never retested 17900 levels as the selling pressure was intense amidst increasing VIX. NIFTY made a lower high and a lower low. NIFTY ended the day flat. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS RELIANCE 6.00 INFOSYS 6.00 HDFC BANK 4.00 BAJAJ FINSERV 3.00 MARUTI 2.00 HCL TECH 3.00 ICICI BANK 2.00 DIVIS LABS 2.00 TATA MOTORS 2.00 TCS 1.00 16.00 15.00 Lifter - Draggers = +1 POSITIVES NIFTY held 17850 levels on a closing basis and 17800 as a good support level. MARUTI & TATAT MOTORS made a strong bounce back from the slumber - especially MARUTI. It rose 6%+. HDFC BANK and RELIANCE consolidated moved up on a closing basis. BANK NIFTY outperformed NIFTY and hit a new ATH and also closed at a new ATH. NEGATIVES A significant increase in VIX is of concern indicating likely choppiness as well as wild swings in the Indices. INFOSYS did not recover at all during the day after the fall. Even AXIS BANK somehow got influenced by the negative sentiment in NIFTY despite its parent index being strong. TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK: NIFTY 17500-18100 BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS I had bought 17800 CE when NIFTY turned up after hitting P Close at 17853. The premium paid was 154. The day end was flat and the premium for the day was at 138. 17800 CE is an ITM CE at the close and was so when I bought. Despite this, I lost at least 16 points even when VIX was up by 6.68%! This is puzzling. MARUTI shot up by 6%+ and yet had almost zero impact on NIFTY which is surprising. I have not seen such an imbalance for a long time. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 27-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Swing Trading Opportunities for W/B 27-9-21TRADING WATCHLIST FOR W/B 27-9-21 INTENT I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check out if any of these fit your trade plan. ON MY WATCHLIST FOR W/B 27-9-21 -- This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week - WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS NIFTY WEEKLY CHART EOD Close 24-9-21 @ 17853.2 ACC BLUESTAR DHANUKA EMAMI FORCE MOTORS GM BREWERIES INOX LEISURE PAGE IND PGHH PHOENIX MILLS RAYMOND STR TECH UDAIPUR CEMENT CAPRI GLOBAL BPCL CIPLA ONGC TATA STEEL ULTRA TECH ACCELYA DCW IDEA WALCHANDNAGAR SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS- AUTO BANK NIFTY MEDIA METALS PRIVATE BANKS Ideally, the best candidate would be the one that features in both lists. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded. I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so. In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn. Thank you for your time and Happy Learning, Umesh 26-9-21 Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
BANK NIFTY tears apart 37K, Lifts NIFTY past 17600NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -16-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17539.2 / 17644.6 / 17510.45 / 17629.5 H-L = 134 points VIX 14.41 / +4.95% FII DII: +826 Crores Likely open: Flat to mild positive. All eyes would be on BANK NIFTY - whether it can hold higher levels and attain ATH as the week draws to a close. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart A mild gap-up open was immediately sold in to and the P Close was retested but then, NIFTY never looked back though the upside move was quite choppy when compared to BANK NIFTY. The daily chart indicates that there was a strong buying that led the rise to the levels above 17600 even though the range was somewhat less when compared to BANK NIFTY. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 47 ITC 34 ICICI BANK 24 SBI 23 HDFC BANK 15 TOTAL 143 The Draggers TCS 15 BPCL 12 INFOSYS 09 GRASIM 05 JSW STEEL 05 TOTAL 46 Lifter - Draggers = +97 BPCL turned ex-dividend so the fall. It is best to ignore the same. Once we do that, the strong upmove is explained easily. POSITIVES NIFTY closed at a new ATH and also hit a new ATH. And both are above 17600. BANK NIFTY tore apart 37000-37200 resistance with fury and was responsible for lifting NIFTY along with RELIANCE. BANK NIFTY ended on a new ATH and so did SBIN. FIIs have bought in good numbers so the momentum is likely to continue in the short term. NEGATIVES INFOSYS keeps coming down. HDFC made a lower close than yesterday. VIX has gone up by almost 5%. TRADING RANGE FOR 17-09-21 17300-17350 is the new support base. For the resistances, we will have to let a few days go by to see how and where it gets formed. BANK NIFTY tore apart the barriers in typical style and is now facing resistance at 37800-38000-38200. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS And as mentioned yesterday, the Banking giants roared and in style today to tear apart the resistance of 37000-37200 and the short covering may have fueled further upside in the index. The fury was evident as in the AM session, even when HDFC BANK was in the red, BANK NIFTY kept rising gradually and held on to the opening low. For the last 2-3 days I have been observing that HDFC BANK is unable to make a significant impact on the indices. I am not sure if the weight has changed or the other members of the indices group have gathered all-around support. This is a good sign as any dependency on one or two scrips is not a good sign from index strength POV. A few days ago, I made an entry into IDEA at 7.3 and then gradually added few shares with every rise. Today cumulative ROI was seen at 43%! On a scrip that had trouble all over at that time, but my decision was very simple - MA-based. So the next time when your process tells you to go long/short, just go ahead. Eventually, following the right process will lead you to the right outcome. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 16-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
2
NIFTY batting at 17519 a record closing highNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -14-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17387.65 / 17532.7 / 17386.9 / 17519.45 H-L = 146 points VIX 13.73 / +1.1% FII DII: +399 Crores Likely open: Flat to mild positive. Tomorrow is the weekly expiry so keen to see where does NIFTY ends and whether BANK NIFTY can cross 37000 or it yet again goes sideways. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart A mild gap-up open was sustained very well as can be seen from the chart and NIFTY ended the day close to the day high and above 17500. The daily chart indicates that there was a strong buying that led the rise to the levels above 17500. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters INFOSYS 19 TCS 17 TITAN 12 BHARTI AIRTEL07 11 ICICI BANK 10 TOTAL 69 The Laggards NESTLE 02 TATA CONSU 02 HDFC BANK 02 AXIS BANK 01 ASIAN PAINTS 01 TOTAL 08 Lifter - Draggers = +61 POSITIVES NIFTY closed at a new ATH and also hit a new ATH. And both are above 17500. TCS, INFOSYS, and KOTAK BANK helped NIFTY to a great extent in holding on to the higher plains. FIIs and DIIs have bought to the extent of 399 Crores which is somewhat less around such levels. NEGATIVES HDFC twins closed a bit below the P Close. RELIANCE has not been able to hold higher levels closer to 2400 and keeps falling back below 2380. BANK NIFTY is still below 37000 resistance which may drag NIFTY should HDFC BANK slide. TRADING RANGE FOR 16-09-21 17300-17350 is the new support base. For the resistances, we will have to a few days go by to see how and where it gets formed. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. This has not been changing for quite a few sessions now. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS I think my insights of yesterday were read by NIFTY as it deceived all and made a steady climb to the psycho mark of 17500 and closed above the line. If we look at the contribution of the yop 5 lifters of NIFTY it is 69 points and that of the draggers is 08. So the leaders net contributed 61 but NIFTY rose by 139 clearly indicating that the rally was well supported by the broader market. BANK NIFTY also extended its daily range to 500+ points which helped NIFTY. If HDFC BANK recovers, then BANK NIFTY is likely to cross the 37K mark - the Q is - will the giant move upwards? The NIFTY rise may have also been contributed by the Short Covering of 17400 CE as there was a good number of CE written as part of the ATM straddle. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 15-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Are we really in a Bull Market with daily Sell-offs?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -14-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17420.35 / 17438.55 / 17367.05 / 17380.00 H-L = 77 points VIX 13.58 / -3.21% FII DII: +1330 Crores Likely open: Positive Gap-up provided it is able to stay above today’s close for an hour or so. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart A gap-up open and then a new ATH was flagged and then the usual drifting game started with the mandatory sell-off just after 1300h and then sideways moves that resulted in yet another ATH Close, but well below the ATH as well as daily high by 58 points. The daily chart indicates that there is a series of Doji-type candles - do they suggest a continuation pattern or exhaustion? I am not sure about it. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters TCS 09 HCL TECH 07 LT 07 KOTAK BANK 06 INDUSIND BANK 05 TOTAL 34 The Laggards HDFC 12 HDFC BANK 07 NESTLE 04 INFOSYS 04 HUL 04 TOTAL 33 Lifter - Draggers = +1 POSITIVES NIFTY closed at a new ATH and also hit a new ATH. TATAMOTORS, KOTAK BANK, TCS, and LT have shown strong momentum. NIFTY was resilient to a great extent as the day low was above 17350 and almost a 100 points above the low of the earlier session. FIIs have bought in excess of 1400 Crores. NEGATIVES RELIANCE, HDFC twins, and INFOSYS ended up dragging the indices from the higher plains. NIFTY is closing a well 58 points below the ATH. BANK NIFTY though ended in the green continues to under perform. TRADING RANGE FOR 15-09-21 17000-17200 is the support base.17400-450-500 may be the resistance area for NIFTY. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS They say looks are deceiving. And NIFTY is doing exactly the same. It is in a bull market, has made an ATH close after hitting an ATH high that was 58 points above the closing price. The first few minutes register a high and then the drifting game starts which at times results in sell-off and if it falls around 17300 or below, it bounces back and ends flat. I have been writing for over 2 years but I have not seen such situations happening around ATH levels. The manner in which the prices move of some of the heavyweights gives an indication that what is happening appears to be stage-managed as the candles on the daily charts would confirm so. When an index or a stock is at ATH, the path of least resistance should be on the upside. However, in the case of NIFTY, it is on the downside and that is what is surprising. INFOSYS, RELIANCE, HDFC BANK are being used to cap the upside in NIFTY for now as these three on their combined strength can lift NIFTY way beyond 17500. In the end, patience and the ability to read the intent of the market and the scrips is more likely to pay off than anything else. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 14-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
5
BANK NIFTY rescues NIFTY for a changeNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -08-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17375.75 / 17383.4 / 17254.20 / 17353.5 H-L = 149 points VIX 14.41 / -3.29% FII DII: -802 Crores Likely open: BANK NIFTY holds the key. Based on the numbers looks a flat to a positive open. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY played negative today and did not even bother to go past the opening high made and ended the day just below the P Close. In the process, it has not only done a lower high but also made a lower low by drifting towards 17250 and dangerously close it. Soon as Europe opened, the sell-off started and lasted for an hour or so, and then, there was the usual jerks-driven relief rally only to end flat. On the daily charts, it has formed a hammer pattern indicating good bounce from the lower areas. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters KOTAK BANK 03 HDFC BANK 03 ICICI BANK 02 TITAN 02 HUL 01 TOTAL 11 The Draggers NESTLE 04 INFOSYS 04 TCS 04 BAJAJ FINANCE 03 RELIANCE 03 TOTAL 18 Lifter - Draggers = -07 The above is what mattered in the end. It looks like the rest of the scrips had no role to play or it was too insignificant by EOD. POSITIVES NIFTY ended flat and recovered more than 90 points after the sell-off. BANK NIFTY changed the corner and was the savior for NIFTY. Even though the private banks have not contributed significantly, their not being negative helped the indices to maintain their levels. RELIANCE and HDFC recovered well from their respective lows which came in handy in ensuring that NIFTY closes flat. NEGATIVES NIFTY could not go anywhere near 17400. NIFTY breached the recent swing lows and drifted towards 17250. INFOSYS and TCS have been showing continued weakness. MARUTI has been falling yet again after a good recovery a couple of sessions ago. FIIs DIIs remain net sellers. TRADING RANGE FOR 08-09-21 17000-17200 is the support base.17400-450-500 may be the resistance area for NIFTY. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS The price action in INFOSYS appeared to be managed if one looks at the candles for the last 2 hours. There were spikes and sell-off as if 1700 CE writers had a point or two to prove in ending the day below 1700. MARUTI fell more than 1.5% but it seems to have made no impact on NIFTY which is indeed surprising as, at one stage, the fall was close to 100 points. The star of the day was KOTAK BANK as it almost single-handedly changed the tide for NIFTY and therefore BANK NIFTY. The strong up move prompted other banks to also chip in. It now needs to be seen if it can hold on to the momentum possibly created by it being included in the LIC IPO proceedings. Interesting expiry tomorrow - will the God that rings in Auspicious Beginnings help NIFTY close the week at a new ATH? Or will the IT biggies with RELIANCE like to keep dragging NIFTY? Wait and Watch! What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 08-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
What would happen if US markets were non-existent?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -07-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17401.55 / 17436.5 / 17287.00 / 17362.1 H-L = 149 points VIX 14.9 / -0.34% FII DII: -283 Crores Likely open: Flat to positive if BANK NIFTY turns green. Today’s low is crucial for the short term and for the week as this is a short week with only 2 sessions remaining before the week ends. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY crossed 17400 yet again and made a new high at 17436. During the day, it remained very volatile on account of BANK NIFTY and even broke 17300 momentarily and then hit a fresh ATH. However, that was also sold in to and the day ended on a flat note. During the day, NIFTY took support from 200 MA on the 5-minute chart. On the daily charts, NIFTY has formed yet another Doji / Spinning top indicating indecisive approach. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters HDFC 27 RELIANCE 11 BHARTI AIRTEL 06 ITC 04 HDFC BANK 02 TOTAL 50 The Draggers INFOSYS 18 TCS 08 BAJAJ FINANCE 06 ICICI BANK 06 AXIS BANK 06 TOTAL 44 Lifter - Draggers = +06 POSITIVES NIFTY hit a fresh ATH. HDFC made a roaring comeback as a leader and closed above 2800 psycho level. RELIANCE also managed to hold on to the 2400+ levels and closed above the earlier close. HDFC BANK made a good recovery after the morning shake-out and help prevent a further slide in BANK NIFTY. NEGATIVES BANK NIFTY keeps underperforming and is facing the Sell on Rise type of situation. After a smart recovery by INFOSYS yesterday, it almost reversed all the gains impacting TCS as well. NIFTY unable to close in green leave aside above 17400 is not a good sign. FIIs DIIs are both net sellers. TRADING RANGE FOR WB 07-09-21 17000-17200 is the support base. I do not know what the upper levels may be. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS Despite HDFC BANK bouncing back 20+ points from the lows, BANK NIFTY ended way below the P Close. This is surprising and possibly indicates how important ICICI BANK and AXIS BANK have become for the index. Amidst pressure from BANK NIFTY, NIFTY could not hold 17300 levels also and dipped for a while and then recovered smartly. I am wondering what would happen if US markets were non-existent? Clearly, in the absence of any clues from the big brother, our indices chose to play safe and ended flat to negative. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 07-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
RELIANCE & INFOSYS Save the day for NIFTY NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -03-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17399.35 / 17429.55 / 17345.55 / 17377.8 H-L = +84 points VIX 15.11 / +3.92% FII DII: -42 Crores Likely open: Unable to read - as today US markets are also closed so indices may consolidate again unless a heavyweight does some interesting moves. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY crossed 17400 as well in the first half an hour but failed to hold on to the same. NIFTY ended the day on yet another ATH close. A higher high and a higher low has been created. On the Daily charts a Doji has been formed indicating indecision. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 28 INFOSYS 23 WIPRO 11 HCL TECH 06 GRASIM 03 TOTAL 71 The Draggers HDFC BANK 10 ICICI BANK 05 KOTAK BANK 04 IOC 03 ITC 02 TOTAL 24 Lifter - Draggers = +47 The towering presence of RELIANCE & INFOSYS changed the fortunes for NIFTY. POSITIVES INFOSYS has made a strong recovery and is now coming close to the ATH levels hit a few days ago. RELIANCE closed at ATH of 2400+. NIFTY hit a new ATH above 17400. NIFTY closed in the green despite pressure from BANK NIFTY. NEGATIVES HDFC BANK, ICICI BANK & KOTAK BANK dragged BANK NIFTY and therefore NIFTY as well. BANK NIFTY closed near the day’s low and below 36600. FII DII is net negative of 42 Crores. BANK NIFTY could not go closer to 37000. TRADING RANGE FOR WB 07-09-21 17000-17200 is the support base. I do not know what the upper levels may be. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS BANK NIFTY trading range was 369 points only which means that the index is getting ready for a big move on either side. It has the tendency to surprise the participants so we will need to wait and watch. NIFTY ended in the green only because of RELIANCE & INFOSYS. RELIANCE fell sharply from the day’s high of 2480+ to end at 2425. RELIANCE and BANK NIFTY hold the key for tomorrow. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 06-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
1