will infy crash 10% cause of selling in us market?NSE:INFY if #infosys breaks daily support of 1365/1345, then only we can expect a fall till weekly buy area of 1250 range zone, if #infy does open 10% down , then it wil be opening at the weekly buying zone, dont rush to buy or invest unless weekly buy zone holds infy fall, if weekly zone breaks then avoid infy for investing purposes.
INFY
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 17 APR 2023NSE:BANKNIFTY really held its cool today! During preopen INFY was showing an open rate of -10%, and everybody would have thought we are going to see a massive sell off today.
IT sector in total was in focus today as the INFY even though had not so bad results was quoting at 10% lower circuit. I think I saw it go down to 12.3 or 12.5% - since I do not track the IT index that closely, it did not really bother me.
However I was excited to see how bank nifty will react. You might be aware that a sell-off in IT will impact the banks the most. A recession or a job loss in IT would mean a lot of NPAs and loan defaults as IT employees are the main people who take exuberant loans at unbelievable valuations.
The opening chaos is very visible in the charts of NSE:HDFCBANK , NSE:ICICIBANK and NSE:AXISBANK . NSE:SBIN had a contradicting pattern and surged ahead. NSE:KOTAKBANK was least impacted- the opening volume was unusual and it had a bright day.
At 10.05 bank nifty secured its feet and then started climbing. So this blip stayed only 45mts and you would not believe how the price action from the last session continued today also.
The 45mts of downward fall was well negated by what followed. I guess the dip buyers were back and immensely supported for a close +130pts today.
It will also meaningful to showcase the Nifty50 chart also, since IT index took a huge beating today, it was visible in Nifty50. There was a recovery post 10.05, but the close was in red unlike the bank nifty.
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The options data also requires special mention today, both banknifty and finnifty options were unaffected by the volatility, the NSE:NIFTY options had a good ride today. At a point I saw VIX hovering around the +10%, seeing the recovery in banknifty, I was immediately convinced the best place to take an option trade was Nifty50 instead of BankNifty.
This makes an exciting week ahead. If there is further weakness in IT, it will spill over to the financial sector with a delay.
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15mts on Banknifty says the uptrend is intact and today's blip has made no special impact. We need a support break of 41624 to get some attention of the bears !
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1hr also looking promising for the bulls, the next resistance at 42576.
In fact in zerodha's TV chart a day high near this resistance level is visible, I am not sure why its missing in the TV chart directly. And today's price action rejection came at the resistance level only.
Nifty IT= THE SECTOR TO AVOID FOR INVESTORS!⚠️FIRST THE TECHNICAL VIEW
Attached: Nifty IT Index Weekly Chart as of 13th April 2023
In the Chart above, I have mapped out the Potential Elliot Wave Count to play out over the coming Months:
- Price has fallen in 3 Waves which is our Larger A Wave
- Then Price did a Corrective bounce in an ABCDE structure making up our Larger B Wave
- And now the Larger C Wave Down in the form of an Impulse is about to start/ has already started!
I have 2 Downside Targets🎯 based on the Elliot Wave Count:
T1= 23400 to 22700 (which is C = 0.618 of A)
T2= 18350 to 17750 (which is C = A)
This implies an approx. 19% decline📉 for Target 1 and a 36% decline📉 for Target 2, from Current Market Price😨
NOW, THE FUNDAMENTAL VIEW
Regarding IT Stocks from an Investor's Stand Point, it is going to be the DIRTY FISH💩🐟 of the Pond and can potentially Spoil the Whole Pond as well
Irrespective of whether it is a Bull Market or a Bear Market for Broad Market Stocks.
IT Index is set for New Lows and Infosys is Leading it on the Downside
As an Analogy for the Indian Market:
Remember how Auto Sector was in 2018? TOP out
how Pharma was in 2015? TOP out
IT is the same now in a Bear Market🐻🩸. Fundamental Reasons:
- US Recession
- Wage Inflation (IT Co. main cost is Employees), Lay Offs, Etc.
- De Dollarization (aka USD Crash hurts Dollar Revenue of these IT Companies)
I suggest if you have any Investments in IT Stocks Sell Them Off✅
You will get better Value in Other Sectors✅
This is a SECTOR SPECIFIC View for INVESTORS!⚠️
LTIM Decoding the price actionThe price action of LTIM suggests that it is in consolidation for a couple of months.
the supply and demand are now in a 10-12% range.
the script had attempted fake-outs in the past as well which failed at trendline resistance areas.
LTIM needs to give a close above this level for any decisive move
Failure to close above 4800 makes it a strong resistance zone
The counter holds the 4350-4320 support zone.
Infosys - low risk high reward long Swing trade opportunity
Infosys is currently trading within a robust support zone that is visible on both monthly and weekly time frames.
The stock has already responded positively to the weekly demand zone and formed a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly time frame.
Additionally, selling volume has been decreasing, and a bullish divergence has emerged on the daily time frame as confirmed by the Wave Volume Divergence Indicator.
A strong support line, represented by the purple line plotted on all three time frames, making it a low-risk, high-reward trade opportunity to initiate a long position near that level.
The Daily Time frame displays a 1:2 position, and the first target has been identified. To maximize potential profits from this trade, traders can trail both their Stop Loss and Target.
In conclusion, Infosys is currently presenting an enticing trading opportunity, as it is trading within a robust support zone visible on multiple time frames, and has formed a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart. Coupled with a decrease in selling volume and a bullish divergence confirmed by the Wave Volume Divergence Indicator, it appears to be a low-risk, high-reward trade to initiate a long position near the strong support zone.
I am not a SEBI registered individual; my analysis is only for educational purposes.
If you find my analysis helpful, I'd appreciate it if you could like it and follow me on TradingView for more analysis like this.
Infy: Chart setup, Risk Reward levels & my trading strategyInfy (1492)
We are looking at weekly candlestick chart
In Dec 2022, I had mentioned the level of 1444 to be of crucial importance. The stock made a low of 1446 and then has seen smart bounce from thereabouts.
Currently the stock is in retracement mode. Important for Infy to hold on to 1480-1460 zone
If withheld then stock can be looked with an upside target potential of 1666 / 1735.
SL 1444
My trading strategy: Bullish Calendar Put spread
Take care and safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Infy Daily TF - Long TermPotential Bullish Gartley pattern identified.
A Retracement zone of 0.7 was marked from the previous swing for the supply zone.
If the D leg is tested with the fall and the price sustains above supply zone targets are marked with 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 levels of retracement of the CD leg.
Cup and Handle PatternA cup and handle price pattern on a security's price chart is a technical indicator that resembles a cup with a handle, where the cup is in the shape of a "u" and the handle has a slight downward drift.
The cup and handle is considered a bullish signal, with the right-hand side of the pattern typically experiencing lower trading volume.
Script = Infy
Time Frame = 1 Day
Hammer PatternHammer candlesticks typically occur after a price decline. They have a small real body and a long lower shadow.
The hammer candlestick occurs when sellers enter the market during a price decline. By the time of market close, buyers absorb selling pressure and push the market price near the opening price.
The close can be above or below the opening price, although the close should be near the open for the real body of the candlestick to remain small.
The lower shadow should be at least two times the height of the real body.
Hammer candlesticks indicate a potential price reversal to the upside. The price must start moving up following the hammer; this is called confirmation.
Script = INFY
Time Frame = 15 min
NIFTY 1D Time Frame Analysis Current Trend:
1) Uptrend parallel channel
2) It took a support exactly at 2 level of Fib .FIB cord -(1953.90 -1665.00)
3) currently it took a resistance @0.5 level of FIB
exception:
year of accumulation zone.. if it breaks the 1654 level , we can except another 300 point movement from there.
once this parallel channel is broken upside ,can can except positive momentum .
Indicator:
RSI: divergence in RSI
MACD: MACD still in positive territory. But showing some weakness currently.
first level of target-1653
support -1500