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Sensex - Weekly review Nov 24 to Nov 28We can see a very interesting pattern formation. Price has formed an ascending triangle pattern before breaking out to the upside. After that, it has formed a descending triangle. There is a trend direction zone between 85000 and 85200. How the price reacts between 85000 and 85200 will decide the trend direction. Buy above 85260 with the stop loss of 85120 for the targets 85380, 85520, 85680, 85840, 85980, 86120 and 86300. Sell below 84900 with the stop loss of 85060 for the targets 84760, 84620, 84480, 84320, 84160, 84020, 83880 and 83740. As per the daily chart, important support is seen at 84500 to 85600. Always do your analysis before taking any trade.
BSE:SENSEX
by vanathi
9
Dixon Technologies: Watching a Key Reversal Zone AheadDisclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions. Dixon’s decline is developing as a running flat within Wave 2. Wave A and B are already in place, with Wave B stretching above the Wave A origin, which is typical behaviour when the larger trend is still strong. The final leg, Wave C, is still unfolding. Inside Wave C, waves (i) through (iv) look complete, and the market appears to be working on wave (v). Momentum has been weakening throughout the drop, which often leads to an ending diagonal in the final wave of a running flat. The structure so far supports that possibility. The 0.618 retracement near 14,061 is the critical zone for this setup. This level aligns with typical Wave 2 depth and sits right where wave (v) of C can complete. RSI has not yet shown bullish divergence, so a marginal lower low in price, paired with a higher low in RSI, would be the ideal confirmation signal. If price forms the expected small ending diagonal into the 0.618 level and momentum improves, this would complete the running flat and set the stage for the next bullish sequence. Summary Wave 2 forming as a running flat. Wave C still in progress; wave (v) pending. Weak momentum favours an ending diagonal finish. Key reversal zone: 0.618 retracement near 14,061. Watching for bullish RSI divergence before confirmation.
NSE:DIXONLong
by WaveXplorer
3
AVANTIFEED: Breaking out of Sym. Triangle, Chart of the WeekNSE:AVANTIFEED Breaking the Triangle: How Avanti Feeds is Positioned to Ride the Shrimp Export Wave Despite US Tariff Headwinds after Posting Strong Q2 FY26 Numbers. Lets Analyse in Chart of the Week. As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. Price Action Analysis: Historical Price Journey: - 2021-2022: Strong rally from 360 levels to 750 zone - 2023: Consolidation and correction to 350-400 range - 2024: Strong recovery rally pushing to new all-time highs near 964.20 - 2025: Symmetrical triangle consolidation followed by recent breakout Current Price Behavior: - Recent breakout candle shows strong buying with minimal upper wick - Trading at 861.20 with +14.51% gain indicates momentum strength - Price approaching previous resistance zones that could act as supply Volume Spread Analysis: Volume Characteristics: - Recent breakout accompanied by 9x surge in volumes (19.86M vs average) - Volume expansion during rally phases from 2023-2024 shows institutional accumulation - Volume spikes at key support levels during consolidation indicate buying interest - Current volume profile suggests smart money participation Volume-Price Correlation: - Strong positive correlation during uptrends (2023-2024 rally) - Declining volume during consolidation phase typical of healthy correction - Recent volume breakout confirms bullish sentiment reversal Symmetrical Triangle Formation (2024-2025): - The stock has been consolidating in a clear symmetrical triangle pattern since reaching its 52 Week high of 964.20 in early 2025 - Lower highs connecting from 964.20 level and higher lows forming from 630.00 support zone - Triangle apex converging near current price levels, indicating an imminent breakout - Pattern duration: approximately 12 months, suggesting significance of upcoming move - Recent price action shows a breakout attempt with strong volume support Broke Symmetrical Triangle with Strong Volumes: - Current price at 861.20 (as of November 21, 2025) shows +14.51% gain with volume surge to 3.9M shares - Volume expansion at 19.86M significantly exceeds average, validating breakout - The breakout has occurred with conviction, supported by high trading activity Key Technical Levels: Support Zones: - Primary Support: 680.00 - 700.00 (recent consolidation base) - Secondary Support: 630.00 (lower triangle trendline) - Critical Support: 570.00 (psychological and structural level) - Ultimate Support: 470.00-510.00 (2024 demand zone) Resistance Levels: - Immediate Resistance: 860.00 (swing high zone) - Major Resistance: 920.00 - 964.20 (all-time high region) - If ATH breaks, next targets: 1,000.00 and 1,100.00 Base Formation: - A strong base has been established between 630.00 to 760.00 through 2025 - Multiple retests of lower support levels throughout the year have strengthened the base - Base duration of 10-12 months provides solid foundation for next leg up Trend Analysis: Long-term Trend (Weekly/Monthly): - Primary uptrend intact despite year-long consolidation - Price remains well above rising 200-week moving average - Higher lows pattern from 2022 onwards indicates bullish structure Medium-term Trend (Daily): - Breaking out of consolidation range with strong momentum - Upper triangle trendline resistance conquered - Price action suggesting potential trend reversal from sideways to bullish Short-term Momentum: - Sharp upward move with strong candles indicating buying pressure - Current momentum favors bulls with potential for continuation Fundamental & Sectoral Backdrop: Company Overview & Business Segments: Core Business Operations: - India's leading shrimp feed manufacturer with integrated operations - Two primary divisions: Shrimp Feed Division and Shrimp Processing & Export Division - Market capitalization: Rs 9,633 crores (approximately $1.15 billion) - Strategic partnership with Thai Union Group (Thailand) - minority stake holder Production Capacity & Scale: - Annual shrimp feed manufacturing capacity: 775,000 metric tons (largest in India) - Shrimp processing capacity: Producing 28,000 metric tons annually - Multiple manufacturing facilities across coastal states - Hatchery division with capacity of 600 million post-larvae Recent Financial Performance: Q2 FY26 Results (Quarter Ended September 2025): - Consolidated Net Profit: Rs 153.29 crores (up 34.88% YoY, down 14.02% QoQ) - Net Sales: Rs 1,609.69 crores (up 18.79% YoY, flat 0.21% QoQ) - Operating Performance shows mixed signals with YoY growth but QoQ softness - EPS: Rs 11.25 (vs Rs 8.34 in Q2 FY25) H1 FY26 Performance (Six Months Ended September 2025): - Total Income: Rs 3,316.11 crores (up 13.11% YoY) - Net Profit: Rs 331.57 crores (up 37.09% YoY) - EPS: Rs 24.34 (vs Rs 17.75 in H1 FY25) - Strong first-half performance despite challenging conditions Segment Performance Highlights: - Shrimp Feed Division: Facing margin pressure from rising raw material costs (fishmeal, soybean meal) - Shrimp Processing Division: 62% YoY growth in gross income for Q2 FY26, driven by diversification and favorable forex rates - Profit Before Tax (PBT): Rs 227 crores in Q2, down 8.83% QoQ indicating margin compression Key Financial Metrics & Valuation: Profitability Ratios: - Return on Equity (ROE): 18.88% - well above industry average - Return on Capital Employed (ROCE): 65.44% - exceptional capital efficiency - Operating Margin: Declining by 126 basis points QoQ in Q2 FY26 - Net Profit Margin: 10.5% (Q2 FY26) Balance Sheet Strength: - Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Negative -0.69 (debt-free, net cash position) - Fortress balance sheet with zero debt burden - Strong working capital position despite rising debtor turnover pressures Valuation Metrics: - Current P/E Ratio: 19x - Price-to-Book Value: 3.90x (reasonable given high ROE) - Dividend Yield: 1.05% - Latest Dividend: Rs 9.00 per share (August 2025), payout ratio of 23.19% Quality Indicators: - Consistent dividend payer with conservative payout ratios - High ROCE indicates superior capital allocation - Zero leverage provides financial flexibility and risk cushion Sectoral Landscape - Indian Aquaculture & Shrimp Industry: Market Size & Growth Trajectory: - Indian Shrimp Market: Valued at $9.2 billion in 2024, projected to reach $22.7 billion by 2033 (CAGR: 10.1%) - Indian Shrimp Feed Market: $2.0 billion in 2024, expected to grow to $7.4 billion by 2033 (CAGR: 15.7%) - India Aquafeed Market: $3.51 billion in 2024, projected at $6.40 billion by 2032 (CAGR: 7.8%) - India ranks as second-largest shrimp producer and exporter globally after Ecuador Production & Export Statistics: - FY24 Seafood Exports: Rs 60,523.89 crores (1.78 million metric tons), up 2.67% in volume - Frozen shrimp accounts for 66.12% of export earnings and 40.19% of export volume - India shipped seafood worth approximately $7.4 billion last fiscal year - Production volumes show resilience despite global headwinds Key Export Markets (Traditional): - United States: Largest market, historically accounting for 40-50% of exports - China: Second-largest market with 451,000 MT ($1.38 billion) - Japan: Third major destination - Other significant markets: Vietnam, Thailand, EU (Belgium, Spain), Canada, UAE, Italy Domestic Market Dynamics: - 72.1% of Indian population (967 million individuals) include fish in their diet - Growing domestic consumption driven by health awareness and rising incomes - Shift toward value-added products (ready-to-cook, processed seafood) Major Industry Challenges & Headwinds: US Tariff Crisis: - August 27, 2025: US imposed 50% reciprocal tariff on Indian shrimp imports (25% base + 25% penalty) - Combined with existing duties: Anti-dumping (3.96%), Countervailing duty (5.77%) - Total effective duty burden: 58.26% on Indian shrimp exports to US - August 2025 impact: Indian shrimp exports to US collapsed 43% YoY to 16,495 MT - Total Indian export volumes fell 9% YoY in August 2025 Cost Pressures: - Rising raw material costs for feed production (fishmeal, soybean meal) - Increasing labor and energy costs impacting margins - Competition from Ecuador in US market, especially in headless shell-on segment - Global oversupply situation causing price depression Disease & Environmental Risks: - Disease outbreaks remain persistent risk in aquaculture - Climate change and water quality challenges - Regulatory compliance and sustainability certification requirements Emerging Opportunities & Positive Catalysts: Posted Strong Q2FY26 Numbers Despite US Tariff: - Despite 50% US tariff headwinds, company posted 34.88% YoY profit growth - Revenue growth of 18.79% YoY demonstrates resilience - Shrimp processing division grew 62% YoY, offsetting feed segment pressures - Management successfully diversifying away from US market dependence China Seafood Export Ban Can Benefit Indian Exporters: - China banned all Japanese seafood imports (November 2025) amid diplomatic tensions - This creates substantial market opportunity for Indian seafood exporters - Indian companies can fill supply gap in massive Chinese market - China already importing 12,190 MT from India in August 2025, up 33% YoY - Market diversification reducing US dependency from 48% toward 30-35% Government Support & Policy Initiatives: - Union Budget 2025: Proposed 5% Basic Customs Duty on key feed production inputs (down from higher rates) - Rs 4.5 lakh crore support package for export sectors including seafood - Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana (PMMSY): Rs 2,352 crores allocated (56% increase) - Department of Fisheries budget: Rs 2,616.44 crores (54% increase YoY) - Government targeting $14 billion+ seafood exports by 2025 - Fishery Infrastructure Development Fund (FIDF) for modernization Market Diversification Strategy: - Companies actively expanding presence in EU, Middle East, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea - Vietnam, Thailand, Canada becoming key alternative markets - Development of value-added products commanding higher margins - China emerging as third-largest market for Indian shrimp after US and Europe Technology & Innovation Adoption: - Advanced breeding techniques producing disease-resistant varieties - Biofloc technology and Recirculating Aquaculture Systems (RAS) improving efficiency - Precision feeding technologies enhancing feed conversion ratios - Integration of probiotics and functional ingredients in feed formulations - Cold chain infrastructure growing 15-30% annually Product Portfolio Expansion: - Avanti Feeds launched new pet food products receiving positive market acceptance - Shift toward value-added products: cooked, breaded, marinated offerings - Value-added exports up 27% year-to-date despite overall volume pressure - Premium products targeting European and Asian markets Structural Competitive Advantages: - Zero-debt balance sheet provides flexibility during market disruptions - Highest feed manufacturing capacity (775,000 MT) among Indian players - Integrated operations from hatchery to processing create vertical synergies - Strong R&D capabilities and partnerships (Thai Union Group) - Established distribution networks and brand recognition Ecuador Supply Disruptions: - Ecuador facing energy rationing issues disrupting shrimp production - May redirect global buyers toward Indian suppliers - Potential to strengthen pricing power and market share gains - Ecuador's challenges provide tactical advantage for Indian exporters Sustainability Certifications & Premium Markets: - Growing demand for certified sustainable seafood (BAP, ASC standards) - Indian producers investing in traceability and quality systems - Access to premium European markets requiring strict compliance - Competitive advantage in environmentally-conscious consumer segments Competitive Positioning: Market Leadership: - Avanti Feeds ranked #1 in Indian shrimp sector by production and revenue - Feed manufacturing: 775,000 MT capacity (largest) - Shrimp production: 28,000 MT annually - Revenue: EUR 615 million (Rs 5,500+ crores) for FY 2022-23 Key Competitors: - Devi Sea Foods: #2 ranked, EUR 391 million revenue, 52,000 MT shrimp production, 300,000 MT feed capacity - Waterbase Limited: Major player with diversified operations - Coastal Corporation: Expanding China presence, up 5% recently on China opportunity - Apex Frozen Foods: Strong Q2 with positive earnings surprise Industry Consolidation Trends: - Top 19 players dominating production and processing - Increasing entry of multinational companies through JVs - Consolidation driven by scale requirements and technology investments Risk Factors & Concerns: Short-term Challenges: - US tariff situation remains fluid; potential for escalation to full 50% or negotiation down to 15% - Sequential margin compression (Q2 vs Q1) indicates near-term profitability pressure - Raw material cost inflation continuing into FY26 - Working capital pressures with rising debtor turnover ratio Medium-term Uncertainties: - Global shrimp prices at lowest inflation-adjusted levels since 2020 - Industry growth stagnation: India's peak exports in 2021 (704,160 MT) not yet regained - Competitive intensity from Ecuador, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia - EU and other markets may also impose trade restrictions Operational Risks: - Disease outbreaks can rapidly impact production - Water quality and environmental compliance requirements - Climate-related risks (extreme weather, temperature variations) - Forex volatility impacting export realizations Strategic Concerns: - Slower than expected market diversification progress - Dependence on commodity shrimp prices - Shift to Black Tiger (Monodon) from Vannamei faces adoption challenges - Pet food venture in highly competitive market against established players like Mars Bull Case Scenario: Technical Setup: - Clean breakout from year-long symmetrical triangle with high volume - If momentum sustains, targets of 860, 920, and new highs above 1,000 are achievable - Strong base formation provides downside support Fundamental Strengths: - China-Japan seafood ban creates immediate export opportunity - Government support package and duty cuts improve cost structure - Debt-free balance sheet provides safety margin - Exceptional ROCE (65.44%) and ROE (18.88%) demonstrate operational excellence - Valuation attractive at 16.26x P/E with 9.7% discount to industry Growth Drivers: - Shrimp feed market growing at 15.7% CAGR through 2033 - Market diversification reducing US exposure from 48% to 30-35% - Value-added product strategy improving margins - Capacity leadership position (775,000 MT feed) creates moat Bear Case Scenario: Technical Risks: - Failure to hold above 700 support could trigger return to triangle - Overhead resistance at 860-920 zone may cap upside - Volume sustainability crucial; fading volumes could signal false breakout Fundamental Concerns: - Sequential profit decline (Q2 vs Q1) signals margin pressure - US tariffs may worsen if no trade deal materialized - Global shrimp prices at multi-year lows (inflation-adjusted) - Raw material cost inflation squeezing feed margins - Industry growth stagnation since 2021 peak Structural Headwinds: - Mature business with 5-year sales CAGR of only 7.5% - Intense competition from Ecuador in key US market - Working capital pressures building (deteriorating debtor turnover) Key Monitorables: Quarterly Metrics: - Feed sales volumes and pricing trends - Shrimp processing margins and export realizations - Geographic revenue mix (US vs other markets) - Raw material cost trends (fishmeal, soybean meal) Market Developments: - Progress on US-India trade negotiations (tariff reduction to 15%?) - China market penetration success metrics - Ecuador supply situation and competitive dynamics - Government policy implementation and subsidy flows Technical Levels: - Sustenance above 700 crucial for bullish structure - Volume patterns on approach to 860-920 resistance - Any breakdown below 630 would be major warning sign My 2 Cents: The technical breakout from the symmetrical triangle, combined with the China-Japan seafood ban opportunity, creates an interesting risk-reward setup. The company has demonstrated resilience by posting strong YoY numbers despite the US tariff shock. However, the sequential margin compression and global shrimp price weakness remain concerns. The debt-free balance sheet and exceptional capital efficiency metrics (65% ROCE) provide a strong safety cushion. Market diversification efforts are progressing, though slower than ideal. The 15.7% CAGR expected in the shrimp feed market through 2033 provides secular tailwinds. From a technical perspective, the stock needs to sustain above 700 and break through 860 with volume to confirm the bullish breakout. The year-long consolidation provides a solid base, but overhead supply at 860-920 could test conviction. So Avanti Feeds presents a compelling case of a fundamentally strong company navigating through short-term headwinds while benefiting from emerging opportunities. The technical breakout aligns with positive fundamental catalysts (China ban on Japan, government support), though execution challenges and margin pressures remain. The company's market leadership, zero-debt status, and superior returns metrics make it a quality play on India's growing aquaculture story. Investors should monitor the sustainability of the technical breakout, progress on market diversification, and margin trajectory in coming quarters. The current setup offers an asymmetric opportunity with defined risk. Full Coverage on my Newsletter this Week Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:AVANTIFEEDLong
by Karanshah137
3
Nifty & Bank Nifty Options Trading1. Understanding Nifty & Bank Nifty as Option Underlyings Nifty 50 A diversified index covering 13 sectors, representing India’s overall equity market. Lower volatility compared to Bank Nifty Stable and predictable movements Preferred by positional traders and institutional hedgers Bank Nifty Composed of major banking stocks, highly sensitive to interest rates, RBI actions, liquidity flows, and global banking events. Extremely high volatility Fast intraday swings (frequently 300–700 points in a day) Preferred by aggressive intraday option buyers and advanced traders Liquidity in both instruments is extremely high, making them ideal for buying and selling options. 2. How Index Options Work Option Types You deal with two primary instruments: Call Options (CE) – You profit when the index goes up Put Options (PE) – You profit when the index goes down Expiry Cycles Both Nifty and Bank Nifty have: Weekly expiry Monthly expiry Quarterly (some strikes) Bank Nifty earlier had only weekly expiry on Thursday, but now expiries rotate due to SEBI’s rules. Nifty expires every Thursday as usual (unless it is a trading holiday). Lot Sizes Nifty lot size: typically 50 units Bank Nifty lot size: typically 15 units (These vary slightly during periodic revisions.) 3. Pricing Dynamics: Why Option Premiums Move Option premiums are governed by: i. Intrinsic Value The real, quantifiable value. CE intrinsic value = Spot price – Strike PE intrinsic value = Strike – Spot ii. Time Value (Theta) Time value decreases as expiry comes closer. Buyers get hurt by theta decay Sellers benefit from theta decay Bank Nifty has rapid intraday time decay, so sellers often dominate. iii. Volatility (Vega) Bank Nifty has higher volatility, meaning: Higher premiums Larger impact of news Bigger risk and reward potential iv. Delta Measures how quickly the premium moves with respect to the index. Example: Delta 0.50 → Option moves 50% of index move ATM options typically have delta ~0.5 Bank Nifty deltas shift faster due to rapid price movement. 4. Why Nifty & Bank Nifty Are Perfect for Options Trading 1. Deep liquidity Instant order execution, tight spreads. 2. Weekly expiries Fast premium decay → perfect for option sellers Low cost → attractive for option buyers 3. High volatility (Bank Nifty) Good for intraday scalping. 4. Large participation FIIs, DIIs, proprietary desks, retail traders provide continuous order flow. 5. Common Trading Styles A. Option Buying Best for: Trending markets Breakout strategies Intraday volatility plays Pros: Limited risk (premium paid) High returns when market trends strongly Cons: Theta decay kills slow markets Needs precise timing and direction Bank Nifty is favored by buyers due to sudden moves. B. Option Selling Best for: Range-bound markets High probability income Weekly expiry trading Pros: Higher win-rate Time decay works in seller’s favor Cons: Potential for large losses if market trends Must use hedging Nifty is preferred by conservative sellers due to calmer moves. Bank Nifty selling is profitable but demands skill and hedging discipline. 6. Key Strategies Used in Nifty & Bank Nifty 1. ATM/ITM Scalping (Intraday) Used for 1–3 minute charts. Buyers use fast entries on breakouts; sellers sell on reversals. 2. Straddles Sell ATM CE + ATM PE. Ideal when expecting low volatility. Highly used on: Expiry days Fridays in monthly series 3. Strangles Sell OTM CE + OTM PE. Safer than straddles, with wider breathing space. 4. Credit Spreads Bear call spread Bull put spread Controlled-risk selling strategies. 5. Iron Condor For sideways markets with limited risk. 6. Directional Option Buying Buyers typically look for: Trendline breakouts VWAP bounces CPR (Central Pivot Range) breakout Previous day high/low rejection Bank Nifty gives the best directional follow-through. 7. Hedge-Based Positional Trades Nifty traders often hold: Bull Call Spreads Bear Put Spreads Calendar spreads for monthly swings. 7. Expiry Day Dynamics Expiry days (especially Thursday) are unique: For Nifty & Bank Nifty Accelerated theta decay Frequent stop-hunt wicks Sudden option premium collapse Wild moves in the last 30 minutes Scalpers thrive; beginners get trapped. Option selling is usually profitable on expiry days, but only if: You hedge You manage risk You avoid naked selling Option buying works only during big directional moves or volatility spikes. 8. Risk Management (Non-Negotiable) Without risk management, Nifty & Bank Nifty options will punish you. Follow these guidelines: 1. Use Stop-Loss Always Options move insanely fast. Bank Nifty can wipe out capital in minutes. 2. Never Sell Naked Options Unhedged selling can cause large losses. 3. Control Position Size Risk per trade should not exceed: 1–2% of capital (positional) 0.5–1% (intraday) 4. Avoid Overtrading Chasing every move is a losing habit. 5. Understand News Events Avoid trading near: RBI policy Budget FOMC Inflation data Major geopolitical news These events create sudden spikes. 9. Psychological Discipline Options trading is 70% psychology. Don’t chase runaway premiums Don’t revenge trade Don’t hold losing trades hoping they “come back” Don’t keep adding to a losing position If you can stay calm during fast index swings, you will trade better than most participants. 10. Final Practical Advice I’ll be direct with you—Nifty & Bank Nifty options can help you grow your capital fast only if you learn structured trading. Otherwise, they can drain your account. Here’s the right mindset: Learn the basics thoroughly Trade small and build skill Specialize in one or two strategies Stick to charts, not emotions Think like a risk manager first, trader second If you invest time in practice and discipline, index options can become your strongest trading edge.
NSE:MCXEducation
by TechnicalExpress
Why Nifty’s Ending Diagonal Turns the Bias BearishAfter my previous bullish take on Nifty (see linked related publications), the view has now flipped. And no — it’s not because the US indices are cracking. And no — it’s not because Bitcoin is collapsing and draining liquidity. Those may add pressure, sure. But the core reason I’m turning bearish is right on the chart — in the structure itself. Daily Chart – Why the Tone Has Changed The key shift came from the overlap at 25,448.95 , which strongly hints that the rally from 24,404.70 unfolded as an ending diagonal , with all five legs subdividing into 3-wave structures (a-b-c). This overlap is what invalidates the impulsive interpretation and turns the structure corrective. That means the entire rise into wave (B) likely finishes a B-wave top , and Nifty may now be moving into wave (C) down. At this point, Nifty could be forming either: An ABC Expanded Flat , or A Running Flat Both are bearish in the short-term and typically resolve with a deeper C-wave. And honestly, there is zero point chasing this market unless we get a decisive close above the ATH — whether on the daily , the weekly , or especially the monthly , which is about to complete and should give a clean directional clue. Until that happens, the risk–reward on fresh longs is questionable. This entire bearish view gets invalidated only if Nifty posts a strong , sustained close above the ATH on higher timeframes. Weekly Chart – Resistance Stack Remains Heavy The weekly structure adds more weight to the bearish bias: Nifty is testing the ATH zone , a major psychological resistance. Price is also hitting the rising trendline , which has already rejected earlier attempts. Both these zones converge right at current levels — not the best place to be aggressive on longs. This is a classic “let the market prove itself” zone. Summary The structure has shifted to corrective due to the ending diagonal overlap. Daily chart suggests an Expanded or Running Flat scenario. Weekly chart shows dual resistance — ATH + rising trendline. No fresh longs unless there’s a clean breakout above ATH on higher timeframes. Monthly candle close will be crucial. Patience > prediction. Let the structure confirm before acting. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WaveXplorer
2
$BTC Just Printed Another LL: Next Draw Is Locked InCRYPTOCAP:BTC Just Printed Another LL: Next Draw Is Locked In Market is maintaining a clear bearish orderflow with continuous LH → LL sequence. Structural Notes 🔹 Previous major FVG (distribution zone) has been fully filled and delivered downside. 🔹 Multiple BOS events confirm continuation of the bearish leg. 🔹 Recent sweep followed by another LL shows sellers still in full control. 🔹 INDUCEMNET zone rests around $93160, high-probability inefficiency for short-term retracement. 🔹 Major unmitigated FVG remains at $100800, acting as a premium draw if price seeks liquidity. Expectations 🔹 Retracement likely into nearby inefficiencies: 🔹 IND @ $93160 → high-probability mitigation 🔹 FVG @ $100800 → medium-probability mitigation (only if deeper pullback unfolds) 🔹 Trend remains bearish until market delivers a ChoCh above $107.5K. Current Bias: Bearish Short-Term Draw: IND (mid-range inefficiency) Mid-Term Draw: Unmitigated FVG (premium zone) Invalidation: ChoCh above $107.5K NFA & DYOR
Short
by CryptoPatel
1
Bitcoin’Smart Money Setup: $80K Drop Before $108K Rebound!Bitcoin is currently trading near $102,000 after showing multiple signs of exhaustion at the top. I expect BTC to drop toward the $80,000 zone — this will likely act as a liquidity grab or a correction phase. From there, a short-term bounce toward $108,000 could trap late buyers before the major macro downtrend begins. Next year, Bitcoin may form its final cycle bottom near $50,000, where long-term accumulation could restart. This setup reflects a smart money distribution pattern — first a correction, then a fake rally, and finally a deeper decline. 📊 Levels to Watch: Short-term Target: $80,000 Reversal Bounce: $108,000 Long-term Bottom: $50,000
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by sushilrawat
2
$BTC STANDING ON ITS LAST SUPPORT: READ THIS BEFORE YOUR TRADEBITCOIN TECH UPDATE — FRESH LEVELS, FRESH PAIN CRYPTOCAP:BTC just dumped to $80,641, making a new low since 12 April 2025. That’s almost -30% from my Short + Exit levels. Those who Rode the Short, Enjoy the profits. Those who avoided chasing above $120k, capital saved again. Where We Stand Now Bitcoin is sitting exactly on the 0.786 Fib ($83,300), the strongest bullish support left on the chart. This level = Bulls’ last hope. If daily candle doesn’t close below $83,300, then expect a relief rally into upside inefficiencies: Upside Targets (If 0.786 Holds) $88,600 → major unfilled FVG $93,000 → bearish Order Block (high probability fill) $98,000 → another upside FVG waiting to be delivered Watch how price behaves at these levels — next macro move will be decided there. If 0.786 Fib Breaks… Be ready. Next liquidity pools: $73,000 / $66,000 Both zones have massive bullish orderflow waiting. If 0.786 support holds → BTC still has high probability to push for a new ATH. Summary: Trend still bearish, but BTC is now at a critical support. Hold → relief rallies + possibly new ATH. Break → $73k–$66k incoming. Stay sharp. Watch the levels. Trade with intention. NFA &" DYOR
Short
by CryptoPatel
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DON’T HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES? - Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day - Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade - SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall Cup & Handle Breakout in KTKBANK BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%
NSE:KTKBANK
by Kapil-Mittal
2
Nifty Analysis for Nov 21, 2025Wrap-up: Nifty breaks previous high 26104, now pattern has been changed and nifty now formed internal wxy pattern and major ABC wave pattern of which wave 5 is expected to be completed at 26104. What I’m Watching for Nov 21, 2025 🔍 Short nifty only if it breaks 26097 SL above 25857 for a target of 25934-25892 and 25673-22596 (SL on 15 min. candle close). Buy nifty only if takes support at 26154 for a maximum target of 26433 only intraday with a sl below 26097. Disclaimer: Sharing my personal market view — only for educational purpose not financial advice.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by ChartMasteryHQ
Nifty AI Tool report showing upmove will continue next week Parameters Data Asset Name : Price 🟥 Nifty Futures (Nov) : 26,074.00 Price Movement 🟩 Upmove will continue to 26,195, 26,270 if break 26,270 then breakout Until 26,000 not break if break then 25,950, 25,850 possible. Reason 🟩 Strong DII Buying & Put Writing: Strong domestic support aur derivative data mein high Put OI major downside ko limit kar raha hai. 🟥 FII Selling & Global Cues: FIIs ki cash segment mein selling aur mixed global signals upside ko rokte hain. Confidence 🟩 Bullish 19/30 Bullish , Avoid , Bearish (63.33% score Above 60% hai, isliye Green.) Probability 🟩 70% Upside/Continuation: Index ka key technical levels aur strong OI support ke upar hold karna bullish trend continuation ka sanket deta hai. R:R 🟩 Favorable (Upside Potential R2 tak strong hai, SL ₹26,000 ke neeche rakha ja sakta hai.) FNO Data 🟩 Strong Put Writing & PCR: PCR 1.50 par hai, indicating high bullish conviction. Liquidity Zones 🟩 Strong Demand Zone: ₹25,950 - ₹26,000 (High Put OI) 🟥 Supply Zone: ₹26,200 - ₹26,270 (Previous Highs / Call Writing) Max Pain 🟨 25,950 (Nov Expiry) DEMA Levels 🟩 20 DEMA: ₹26,043 50 DEMA: N/A 100 DEMA: N/A 200 DEMA: N/A 250 DEMA: N/A (Price short-term DEMA ke upar hai, bullish.) Supports 🟩 S1: ₹26,000 S2: ₹25,950 S3: ₹25,850 Resistances 🟥 R1: ₹26,195 R2: ₹26,270 R3: ₹26,500 ADX/RSI/DMI 🟩 Momentum Positive: RSI (58-60 range mein) positive hai. Market Depth 🟩 Buy-biased (Overall market structure is bullish) Volatility 🟨 INDIAVIX: 12.1 (Low/Moderate Volatility) Source Ledger 🟩 NSE / Investing.com / 5paisa (Verified sources used) OI 🟩 High OI (Futures) & OI Chg (+4.67%): Long Build-up ka sanket. PCR 🟩 1.50 (High PCR, strongly Bullish) VWAP 🟨 Neutral (Price ke aas-paas) Turnover 🟩 High (High Volume, strong participation) Harmonic Pattern 🟨 N/A IV/RV 🟨 IV: 11.3 (ATM IV moderate hai.) Options Skew 🟩 Bullish Skew: Upside ki options ki demand zyada hai. Vanna/Charm 🟨 N/A (Advanced Greeks data not available) Block Trades 🟨 N/A (No immediate major Block Trades reported) COT Positioning 🟩 Long Heavy (FIIs ka Index Futures mein net long bias (61% long vs 39% short) maintain hai.) Cross‑Asset Correlation 🟨 Neutral: US Bond Yields se correlation stable hai. ETF Rotation 🟩 Positive Flow (Domestic Equity ETFs mein strong inflows.) Sentiment Index 🟩 Cautious Greed OFI 🟨 N/A (Order Flow Imbalance data not explicitly available) Delta 🟨 N/A (Options Delta data not explicitly available) VWAP Bands 🟨 Price near VWAP (Neutral) Rotation Metrics 🟨 N/A
NSE:NIFTYLong
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
XVG Was pumped 13000000% in 2015-2017 so what Next?Crypto History Reminder: SGX:XVG was one of the most explosive rallies of the 2015–2017 cycle, a 13,000,000% (13M%) move in under two years. Despite the noise, it still trades +296,000% above its 2015 baseline. OGs know the John McAfee era was a major catalyst, but the market is no longer driven by personalities, it’s driven by structure. Technically: As long as XVG holds the $0.004 support, trend bias remains bullish on higher-timeframe structure. Cycles repeat. Narratives change. Price action doesn’t lie. NFA & DYOR
CRYPTO:XVGUSDLong
by CryptoPatel
BTCUSD – Updated Technical AnalysisPrice broke $81,795 (0.236 Fib) with strong bearish candles. This confirms continuation of the downtrend, not a temporary dip. RSI continuously making lower highs RSI is now near oversold zone but not yet reversed Strong Support 1: $78,000 – $76,500 Strong Support 2: $72,000 – $70,000 Harmonic / Trendline Final Support: $68,200 BTC is currently: Below trendline Below EMA(s) Below 0.236 RSI in a strong downtrend Lower lows forming BTC is in a clear downtrend. It just broke a major support level RSI is also trending down strongly No bullish signals yet The next major reversal zone is $72k–$68k. Disclaimer- All information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. Crypto markets are highly volatile, and any trading or investing decision you make is strictly at your own risk. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any financial decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by nikhilvishwakarma322
$SUI JUST ENTERED ITS DO-OR-DIE ZONE CRYPTOCAP:SUI JUST ENTERED ITS DO-OR-DIE ZONE AND THE WEEKLY CHART IS SCREAMING A REVERSAL SETUP Everyone is panicking at the dump… But nobody is seeing what actually happened on the HTF: 🔹 Massive Liquidity Grab Completed — identical to the 2024 bottom pattern. 🔹 Price nuked directly into FVG + Bullish Order Block. 🔹 Strong rejection wick = smart money accumulation confirmed. 🔹 Macro trendline STILL intact. Structure STILL bullish. But let’s be Honest: 👉 Market condition is extremely worst right now. 👉 All altcoins dumped hard. 👉 CRYPTOCAP:SUI is –75% down from its Jan 2025 ATH… 10 months of pure bleeding. Still, the chart is loading something big. Here’s my IMO approach: 🔹 Accumulation Zone 1: $1.35 – $1.15 🔹 Accumulation Zone 2: $0.90 – $0.75 ⭐ Don’t try to buy once. ⭐ No one knows the exact dip. ⭐ Smart way = accumulate slowly inside these zones. Strong bounce potential sits exactly from the FVG → Bullish OB confluence. If SUI breaks $4.8 resistance? Targets: $5 → $10 → $20 IMO one day CRYPTOCAP:SUI will hit $20 easily. But of course, Not financial advice. DYOR before investing.
Long
by CryptoPatel
Flag Found in NZDUSDI was eyeing on NZDUSD for Bullish entry above its major support @ 0.5613. Then I caught a flag pattern which indicates continuation towards 0.5515. This is also confirmed by its near major support at 0.5514. The price retraced two times from 0.5514 on 9th April 2025 and 3rd Februrary 2025. It enables me to have a proactive selling below the current Lower Low @ 0.5588 which is the pole of our flag. Our Stop losses positioned at 0.5617, right above the flag clothing. I am taking two trades each with 1% risk. If my first trade target hits then I will move the SL of other trade to BE to ride the same direction with great peace of mind. Happy Trading. Trade No. 1 Entry (Sell Stop): 0.5588 SL: 0.5617 TP: 0.55518 Trade No. 2 Entry (Sell Stop): 0.5588 SL: 0.5617 TP: 0.55155
Short
by hameedops
ERIS 1 Day View 📊 Current Price & Range Last traded around ₹1,669 – ₹1,672 Today’s observed intraday range so far: Low ~ ₹1,651.6 and High ~ ₹1,679.2. Previous close was ~ ₹1,669.60. 🔍 Key Technical Levels (1-Day) Support levels to monitor: 1. ~ ₹1,650 mark – near today’s intraday low (~1,651). 2. A stronger buffer may lie around ₹1,620-1,630, given prior trading zones (though exact MA data not fully pulled). 3. If price breaks decisively below ~₹1,650, the next meaningful lower zone might be nearer the 52-week low area (~₹1,100) but that’s much further away. Resistance levels to monitor: 1. Immediate resistance near today’s high ~ ₹1,679-1,680. 2. If momentum builds, next resistance around ~ ₹1,700-₹1,720 area. 3. The 52-week high (~₹1,910) remains well above current price and acts as long-term cap. ⚠️ Notes & Caveats These levels are based on publicly available price ranges today; they do not include detailed moving-average levels or intraday support/resistance lines from charting software. Always consider external risks: market sentiment, pharma sector news, regulatory updates, earnings surprises for Eris. Short-term trading involves higher volatility and increased risk; these setups should be used with proper stop-losses and position sizing.
NSE:ERISLong
by TechnicalExpress