HINDWARE HME INNOVATION||20-12-2022||SWING AND SHORT TERMI AM NOT SEBI registered advisor please consult financial advisor for your investment.
This is only for educational purpose you can also share your thoughts on the comments
\\Representation:
**Green dashed line--Supportive line
**Red dashed line--Resistance line
**Red dotted line--hidden resistance line
**Black up and down arrow--touches of support line
**cmp:415.
In this chart, The Resistance Line was breached with very good candle.
keep following We will grow like healthy society.
LONG
USD - IS IT KEEPING THE UPPER HAND AFTER ALL?My today's analysis deals with the fact that it could coming to an end with the correcting, and a further rise in the DXY is in front of us.
> We traders know that no one can predict the future and that is exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations.
> If the DXY should rise again, it means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets.
> This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture.
> Which levels are RELEVANT; I have explained in detail in the following pages.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- 1. Part = DXY EXPLANATION
- 2. Part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
= Monthly - Time frame
= Weekly - Time frame
= Daily - Time frame
- 3. Part = CONCLUSION
FIRST PART
“INTRODUCTION“
The "DXY" indicator entered on September 28 of this year,
the first time since May 2021, in a downward correction.
> On this day, I published an analysis, which dealt with a possible top in the DXY.
> This forecast turned out to be a precision landing on the day and is to till now the TOP.
(My analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes.)
To help you understand the relevance of the "DXY Index", let's take a closer look at it.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a ratio (index) that compares the value of the U.S. dollar using a basket of six currencies.
> EUR = 57,6 %
> JPY = 13,6 %
> GBP = 11,9 %
> CAD = 9,1 %
> SEK = 4,2 %
> CHF = 3,6 %
EXPLANATION
DXY > RISE
One of the currency pairs falls > Pressure on other currency pairs increases = Chain reaction = All currency pairs fall
DXY < FALL
One of the currency pairs rise > Pressure on other currency pairs decreases = Chain reaction = All currency pairs rise
So if you interpret the DXY correctly, you can get confirmation for ideas in other related currency pairs.
SECOND PART
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
For the analysis of the higher time levels I proceed according to the onion-skin principle.
> MONTHLY - Level > WEEKLY - Level > DAILY - Level
These are divided into
> SUMMARY > CHARTS
1. MONTHLY – TIME FRAME
SUMMARY
The trend channel shown in the chart formed in May|2011 and has since maintained its position as a legitimate trend channel. Especially its mid-trend line showed many reactions and great interest of the market.
> The price has reached this middle line and has already reacted positively.
> The trend arc is another bullish signal and could serve as additional resistance in the future.
If we look more closely at the "DEMAND" zone, we see that it has already been tested on.
> The monthly candle closed above the zone, which is another positive indicator.
> If we get another rise in the DXY, the marked "SUPPLY" zone, will serve as a very strong resistance and will be a real challenge.
The Fibonacci retracement should serve us as an additional confirmation, and was taken under proof in past movements (last decades).
> The 0.328 level, was breached without another reaction at this time level and the monthly candle closed below it.
> Still pending is the next 0.50 level, which in combination with several arguments, represents a Medium-Strong resistance.
> In the absence of a reaction from this level, we will see another sell-off to the 0.618 level.
Past highs usually serve as resistance, of which we have two.
> HIGH | 01/17 - Already showed a reaction
> HIGH | 03/20 - Reaction still pending
Points and levels of interest are available to us, which have a not irrelevant duration.
> The most significant resistance is the marked POI ZONE (turquoise), with 50 years of experience.
> We can be sure that there is great interest in this one.
> This already proved true with a first reaction, but we must continue to wait for the candle close to confirm the argument.
> If this is "temporarily" broken by a panic in the market, the POI at 102,000 points, serves as the next point of contact.
CHARTS
DXY – Overall picture
DXY – Trendlines
DXY – Supply & Demand ZONES + Market-Structure-Break
DXY – Fibonacci + POI
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements.
2. WEEKLY – TIMEFRAME
SUMMARY
Besides the already mentioned trend channel, another one is now visible (violet), which was formed in May|2021.
> Regardless of its inconspicuousness, it supports the tenor of the thesis.
> It was respected and must prove itself again in the coming days and weeks.
The additional "SUPPLY&DEMAND" zones join the two existing ones and remain untouched.
As further Fibonacci additions we have:
> A 1.618 level which was almost touched but is still pending to be worked off.
> A 0.786 level which has been able to defend the last two weekly closes.
> A 0.88 level, which in combination with the pending MSB, represents a strong resistance.
CHARTS
DXY – Overall picture
DXY – Overall picture + Monthly
DXY – Trendlines
DXY – Supply & Demand ZONES + Market-Structure-Break
DXY – Fibonacci + POI
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements.
2. DAILY – TIMEFRAME
SUMMARY
In the chart, further trend lines are drawn, which have shown reactions in the last 4 months.
> These will represent resistances for a possible upward movement.
Because so many elements are drawn in the chart, I would advise you to look again at the chart below, where you see only the S&D zones.
> Some close together with the higher time levels, which reinforces their - resistance/support.
CAUTION (Paler Zones)
> The Supply zone, has been touched before and thus has less resistance.
> The Demand zone, has been breached and thus should not trigger a major reaction, however it could still be "recaptured".
In order to be able to forecast possible target ranges, we would first have to reach the bottom, which has yet to form.
> The plotted levels can still change, but serve as a first reference point.
> If the reached level already represents the bottom, one can see that the FIB levels, beautifully go along with the "Supply&Demand" zones.
CHARTS
DXY – Overall picture
DXY – Overall picture + Monthly + Weekly
DXY – Trend lines
DXY – Supply & Demand ZONES
DXY – Fibonacci
THIRD PART
CONCLUSION
"The market makers only make money when everyone else loses. So what is the current mainstream opinion?"
Run that question through your head and let me know in the comments what you think is more likely.
> Another sell-off or a strong USD for now?
In summary, based on technical analysis, there are a few reasons for a "temporarily" strong USD.
> If you take a closer look at the area of the - HTF-POI-ZONE - you will see quite quickly that resistances could be enough for a whole arm.
> Bringing this wall down will take more than one run-up, in my opinion.
For this reason, I am assuming a strong USD and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets.
> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review of the idea.
Thank you and happy trading!
Swing trade ''ESCORTS''
This is a fundamentally very good stock
the stock is in good momentum and this is the right time to enter in the stock as stock is in its dip
when buying on dip works?
when the particular stock is making higher highs and higher lows with rising buying volume
bullish flag pattern is created in the chart - which is a continuation pattern
A little bit about volumes and the master of all averagesSo, let's refresh our knowledge from the previous posts (read part 1 and part 2 at the links):
- The chart is based on the data from the tape;
- The X-axis is the time scale, and the Y-axis is the price scale;
- To avoid having to analyze a huge number of trades, interval charts were invented for convenience;
- The most popular chart type is the Candlestick chart;
- The candlestick consists of a body and shadows (upper and lower). The body is drawn at the open and close prices of the interval. The shadows are built by the maximum price (high), and the minimum price (low);
- The time interval for one candle is called a time frame. The smaller the time frame, the more detailed information we get about the price changes.
In addition to information about the price dynamics, from the stock chart, we can get information about the dynamics of trading volume. These are bars that we see below the candlesticks. They are also drawn on the basis of information from the tape. Let's return to our example:
FB $110 20 lots 12/03/21 12-34-59
FB $115 25 lots 12/03/21 12-56-01
FB $100 10 lots 12/03/21 12-59-12
FB $105 30 lots 12/03/21 12-59-48
If you add up all the lots of trades in the interval from 12-00-00 to 12-59-59, we get 85 lots. Then the lots need to be multiplied by the number of stocks in one lot, for example, 100. It turns out that 8500 shares changed their owners in 1 hour. This information is displayed as a bar below each candlestick.
My strategy does not use a trading volume analysis, but it is important to understand that increasing trading volumes are a sign of increasing attention to the stock. However, this attention does not always translate into higher prices. If there is negative news about a company, we will see both a drop in the stock price and an increase in volume.
What is constantly used in my investment strategy is the moving average . What is it? This is the average of the close prices of a selected number of candles, starting with the last one.
I use the average of the close values of the last 252 candlesticks. Why this number? The number 252 corresponds to the average number of trading days per year on the NYSE and the NASDAQ. That is, in fact, the average annual moving price .
Why is it moving? Because every day there is a new candlestick with a new close value, and it begins a new calculation of the average value of the last 252 daily candlesticks.
You can plot the moving average chart on a candlestick chart and see how far the current price has "run away" from the annual average price. I will tell you exactly how to apply this in investing in the next posts, and that's all for today.
Finally, I will ask you to reflect on one thought:
One who is true to the golden mean will always find something that someone else missed and give it to someone who is afraid to miss it.
See you in future posts.
GODFRYPHLPBreakout FROM 52week high on monthly bases
then formed a base on weekly time frame in rectangle and consolidated.
now breakout from rectangle as marked on chart and restested we can enter now.
this is not buy or sell cal do your own research before taking any trade. do consult your financial advisor
Spicejet: Can you take me higherSpicejet
The stock has struggled a lot in past but since September 2022, the stock has managed to hold on to the Bear onslaught.
Financially still unhealthy, but with restructuring process due to be completed soon, and Oil prices cooling off, things may improve for the aviation sector going forward which can in turn help the aviation sector.
If we analyze the market share Indigo is the clear market leader and the rest are capturing a share of around 8% each roughly.
Indian Airlines Market Share (%)
IndiGo 58.8
Vistara 10.4
Air India 8.4
Go First 8.2
SpiceJet 8.0
Air Asia 4.6
Alliance Air 1.2
Source: AngelOne (Data is as of September 28, 2022)
Technical Analysis view
- the stock is trading above it's 21 day EMA and 63 day EMA
- the stock has made higher bottom since September 2022
- trendline support area around 38.5
Target for the stock 52 / 58 / 62
SL 34.50
There you go, I have shared the analysis both as per Technical Analysis and little Fundamental insights.
Understand the context of investment and assess your risk management and I trust the above analysis would help you take informed decision.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Japanese Candlesticks: Game of Body and ShadowsSo, in the last post we learned how to build a simple line chart based on the tape. Each point on the chart is defined by coordinates from the time (X scale) and price (Y scale) of a trade. But some stocks are traded at a frequency of hundreds of trades per second, at different prices. The question arises: which trade price to choose from this set?
Interval charts were invented to solve this question. The most popular is the Candlestick Chart . They appeared in Japan three hundred years ago, when the Japanese exchanges were trading rice. They were invented by a trader named Homma. Apparently, being tired of drawing a lot of points on charts, he decided that it would be more convenient to show the price change over the time interval. So, what he came up with.
Let's take a time frame equal to one hour and plot a 1-hour candle on the basis of the following tape:
FB $110 20 lots 12/12/22 12-34-59
FB $115 25 lots 12/12/22 12-56-01
FB $100 10 lots 12/12/22 12-59-12
FB $105 30 lots 12/12/22 12-59-48
A candle consists of a body and upper and lower shadows. Like a float. The body is formed from the open and close prices of a certain time frame. In our case the hour interval is from 12-00-00 till 12-59-59. Only 4 deals were concluded in this time interval. The price of the first deal is $110, which is the opening price of the period or the so-called " open ". The price of the last deal was $105, which is the period closing price or " close ". These two prices are enough to form the body of the candle.
Now let us move on to the shadows . The upper shadow is drawn at the maximum price of the interval (115$) and is called " high ". The lower shadow is drawn at the minimum price of the interval ($100) and is called " low ".
The shape of our candle is ready. However, it should also have a content, namely the color. What is it for? Let's take a look at another candle.
Here we can see where is the high and where is the low. But how do we know which is the open or the close? After all, the open is not always at the bottom of the candlestick body, as in the previous example, it can be at the top.
To understand where is the open and where is the close, Homma has invented to paint the body of a candlestick in black, if close is lower than the open, i.e. if the price in the interval is falling (falling candle or bearish candle ).
But if close is higher than open, the body of the candle remains white, it will indicate the growth of price during the interval (rising candle or bullish candle ).
Sometimes a candlestick has shadows, and the close price is equal to the open price. Then it will look like a cross. This candlestick is called a doji .
White and black are the classic colors for the bodies of Japanese candles. However, you can come up with your own colors. If you want the rising candles, for example, to be blue, and the falling orange - you're welcome. The main thing is to make it convenient and understandable for you.
So, one candlestick allows us to understand where we had the first trade, the last trade, the price maximum and minimum in a given time frame. But it does not allow us to understand how the price changed within the interval: when the maximum or minimum was reached and what was happening within this price range.
But the problem can be easily solved if we switch to a smaller time frame. If we look at the daily candlesticks (this is when the time frame of one candle is equal to one day), and we want to see what was during the day - we switch to the hourly time frame. If we want to see even more details - we switch to 15-minute candles and so on down to the seconds. But you and I will most often use daily timeframes, so as not to be distracted by the fluctuations that occur during the day.
To be continued :)
ZIM LABORATRIES from Long Term POVCompany has announced bonus @2:1 Record date 22-12-20222. Stock looks good fundamentally with market cap of Rs.550 crores approx. which is undervalued according to me. It can be a good buy around the Demand Zone if the trend confirms to reverse upside from there.
- Company with Low Debt
- Strong cash generating ability from core business - Improving Cash Flow from operation for last 2 years
- Annual Net Profits improving for last 2 years
- Book Value per share Improving for last 2 years
can lauruslab turn from support of 385 , palat zone aaya kya?Although Laurus lab is a falling knife right now and people are struck in this counter but I would like to initiate a long trade around 385/380 with SL below 375. This price zone of 380-385 is support zone of 2020 and I am also counting on RSI which is on oversold level on weekly Time frame. Targets for me on this trade would be 1) 400 2) 422 3) 450 after my target 2 for remaining qty I will bring my SL to cost to avoid any loss in the trade. F&O traders should trail SL tightly since this trade would be against the trend. Lets wait n watch, happy trading
Long setup in subexhello guys!
subex has started a fresh move after a consolidation. so, my strategy is to enter here for first target of 42 then 48 rs which is a recent high.
sl will be 32 rs
my qty will be 1250 or 40k investment.
hope you enjoy my analysis.
i will post video also in short while.
NSE:SUBEXLTD
The birth of the chart. The evolution of the tapeLast time we studied how the exchange price is formed, and we found out that it is important to learn how to read charts correctly in order to analyze price changes correctly. Let's see how a chart is made and what it can tell us.
Everyone who went to school probably remembers: to draw a function, we need the X and Y axes. In stock charts, the X-axis is responsible for the time scale, and the Y-axis is responsible for the price scale. As we already know, a chart is built on the basis of data from a tape. At the previous post , we have produced the following tape:
FB $110 20 lots
FB $115 5 lots
FB $100 10 lots
Actually, in addition to ticker, price and volume the tape also fixes time of trade. Let's add this parameter to our tape:
FB $110 20 lots 12/08/22 12-34-59
FB $115 5 lots 12/08/22 12-56-01
FB $100 10 lots 12/08/22 12-59-02
That's it. Now this data is enough to put points on the chart. We draw three points, connect them with straight lines and get a chart.
At one time, this was enough, because trades on the exchange were not frequent. But now some popular stocks, such as Apple or Google, have hundreds of trades per second with different prices.
If the minimum division on the X scale is one second, what price point should we put if there were many trades at different prices in one second? Or let's place all the points at once?
We will discuss that in the next post. And now, as a postscript, I want to show you some pictures describing how the tape was born and evolved.
Here is a picture of a stock player, looking through a tape with quotations, which is given by a special telegraph machine.
Each telegraph machine is connected by wires which, like a spider's web, entangle New York City.
1930's broker's office with several telegraph machines and a quotation board.
An employee of the exchange looking through a tape of quotes. It won't be long before all this is replaced by the first computers.
We'll continue today's theme soon.