Gold at 25 year top line ! Macro view !Zooming out to the 2 week frame gold’s now touching the same top line that was drawn from the 1995-2005 base to the 2011 cycle high. This upper rail has acted like a generational ceiling and after nearly 15 years, price has stretched back into that very band again, this time near 4150–4350.
This zone isn’t just any resistance it’s the outer wall of gold’s entire super-cycle structure. Historically, whenever price came here with RSI above 80 on the 2-week frame, it marked exhaustion or at least a multi-month digestion phase before the next leg higher. And right now, RSI is sitting around 83 a clear signal of overheated momentum.
Macro context still favors gold in the long term global rate-cut expectations, slower real yields, and consistent central-bank accumulation keep the long-term green base trendline (drawn from 2005 lows) fully intact. As long as that line holds, the long-term structure stays bullish-biased.
But here’s the catch the higher we climb without a structural reset, the more fragile the rise becomes.
So 4365 stands as a major decision point.
Reject from here: we could see a healthy pullback toward 3750-3800 — still within the bullish channel.
Break and close above: that opens the door for a true macro breakout, with next expansion targets sitting around 4800–5200 over the coming years.
For now, this run feels more like a macro stretch ice sitting on sand. Looks shiny, but needs solid ground before it can hold.
