Gold Pauses as Strong NFP Data Boosts the DollarHello traders!
Gold is currently hovering around $3,330 after Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report came in stronger than expected, showing 147,000 new jobs — higher than both the previous reading (139,000) and forecasts (110,000). This pushed the US dollar slightly higher, placing temporary pressure on gold’s upside momentum.
However, broader market factors still support gold’s long-term bullish outlook. Concerns over US fiscal sustainability, continued central bank gold buying, and global growth fears remain key drivers for safe-haven demand.
Technically, gold continues to hold above the key support zone near $3,325, preserving its bullish structure. As long as this level holds, the upward trend remains valid.
👉 What’s your take after the latest NFP report? Will gold keep rising — or is a pullback on the way?
M-forex
Gold Update: Bulls Test Weekly R1 at 3360 The 3360 Weekly R1 level is proving to be a solid barrier. This was anticipated, as weekly resistance levels often require multiple attempts or significant volume to break through cleanly.
gold needs substantial volume to power through this resistance level, but we're heading into a low-volume trading environment.
With the US markets closing early today for Independence Day, we're looking at reduced trading activity. This creates a few scenarios:
Lower volume could mean less momentum to break resistance
Thin trading conditions might lead to choppy price action
Any breakout attempts may lack the conviction needed for follow-through.
3308 Major Support: This remains our key downside level to watch. If the bulls can't make progress at 3360 and we see some profit-taking, this support zone becomes crucial for maintaining the recent bullish momentum.
EURUSD SHORT - 15M/1HFOREXCOM:EURUSD
Hello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more Smart Money to develop before taking any position . I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied...
Keep trading
Hustle hard
Markets can be Unpredictable, research before trading.
Disclaimer: This trade idea is based on Smart money concept and is for informational purposes only. Trading involves risks; seek professional advice before making any financial decisions. Informational only!! !
EURUSD: Sideways Consolidation Before Directional BreakEURUSD is currently moving within a clear sideways range between 1.16400 and 1.18400, positioned just above the ascending channel line. Recent price action shows consolidation, with lower highs forming near 1.18400 while support holds firmly.
If price breaks below the range, a retest of the channel support around 1.16400 is likely. On the other hand, a bounce from current support may lead to another attempt toward the upper resistance. Traders should wait for a clear breakout signal before entering in the new trend direction.
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XAUUSD 03/07: GOLD IN THE DRIVER'S SEATXAUUSD 03/07: GOLD IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT – WILL IT BREAKOUT OR PULLBACK BEFORE KEY EVENTS?
Gold is on a solid upward trajectory, as expected from earlier predictions this week. After a negative ADP Non-Farm Payroll report yesterday, the USD weakened, providing the fuel for gold to soar. During the US session, gold surged from the 333x level to 336x.
🔑 Key Catalysts to Watch:
1. Political Factors:
Trump's announcement that the Republicans in the House have united to push through the "Super Bill" is a significant factor that could propel gold even further in the near future. The political climate is setting the stage for gold's potential rally.
2. Macro Overview:
Federal Reserve and Rate Cuts: The market is eyeing the Fed closely, with high expectations for two interest rate cuts this year. This could put continued pressure on the USD and further support gold. With a 90% chance of a rate cut by the end of Q3, the path is clear for gold to target new highs.
US Economic Data: Disappointing ADP data, reporting a loss of -33k jobs, continues to point to a weakening labor market, strengthening the case for gold as a safe-haven asset.
🌍 Market Conditions and Trade Setup:
The market remains on edge with these political and economic factors at play. The market will also be watching the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data closely. With the ADP report showing poor results, the market could experience some turbulence ahead of the NFP release, and with a long weekend ahead due to the bank holiday, traders should approach this market with caution.
📉 Technical Outlook – The Road Ahead for Gold:
Gold has been trending upward and maintaining a bullish outlook. However, a minor pullback is expected.
Resistance: 3358 – 3365 – 3374 – 3380 – 3390
Support: 3343 – 3335 – 3325 – 3316 – 3304
📊 Trading Plan – Key Levels to Watch:
Buy Scalp:
Entry: 3335 – 3333
SL: 3329
TP: 3340 → 3345 → 3350 → 3360 → 3370
Buy Zone:
Entry: 3316 – 3314
SL: 3310
TP: 3320 → 3324 → 3328 → 3332 → 3336 → 3340 → 3350 → 3360
Sell Scalp:
Entry: 3374 – 3376
SL: 3380
TP: 3370 → 3366 → 3360 → 3355 → 3350
Sell Zone:
Entry: 3388 – 3390
SL: 3394
TP: 3384 → 3380 → 3376 → 3370 → 3366 → 3360
⚠️ Key Focus for Traders:
Upcoming Data: The NFP release will be crucial, as disappointing job numbers could drive gold even higher.
Market Volatility: With the long weekend ahead and market reactions to key news, be prepared for possible volatility.
Trade with Caution: Stick to your TP/SL strategy, manage risk, and only enter trades when clear setups appear.
📈 Conclusion:
Gold is showing strong potential for further gains, but traders should be prepared for some pullbacks as the market reacts to upcoming economic and political news. The trend remains bullish, but it’s crucial to remain cautious and follow the technical levels closely to optimize entry points. Stay alert for key developments in the USD, NFP, and Fed rate-cut expectations, and let the market guide you.
Will Gold Break Higher Ahead of US Jobs Data?Hello traders, what’s your take—will gold rise or fall today?
So far, the precious metal remains quiet, hovering around $3,345 without much movement since yesterday.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, although the probability is still low, expectations are rising that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates later this month. That’s a strong supportive factor for gold in the near term.
Technically, the next bullish target is a confirmed daily close above the key resistance level at $3,400.
On the news front, Thursday marks the most important data release of the month for the US—the June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, released a day early due to the Independence Day holiday. The market is expecting an increase of 110,000 jobs, down from 139,000 in May.
This release could be a gold mover: If the actual number is weaker than expected, it would likely reinforce Fed rate cut expectations—giving gold a bullish push.
EURUSD: A Pause Before the Next Wave?After a strong breakout at the end of June, EUR/USD surged but has since entered a tight consolidation range. But don’t be discouraged — this could simply be a breather before the next big move!
On the chart, the bullish trend remains intact as price stays above key EMAs. Buyers aren’t backing down, and the market seems to be "catching its breath."
If EUR/USD breaks out of the current sideways zone around 1.1810, we could see another bullish leg aiming for higher levels.
XAUUSD: Breakout Confirms Bullish ReversalGold has successfully broken out of the descending channel after consolidating around the $3,276 area, signaling a strong return of bullish momentum. The breakout occurred precisely at a confluence of multiple Fair Value Gaps, propelling price toward the $3,357 resistance zone.
Despite a slight rebound in the US dollar, growing concerns over the US fiscal deficit and proposed tax reforms are driving investors back into gold as a safe haven. Meanwhile, US bond yields remain low, and the dollar lacks the strength to suppress gold demand.
As long as price holds above $3,320, any pullback can be seen as a buying opportunity in this newly confirmed uptrend. The next target sits around $3,357, with potential for a move toward previous highs.
Bitcoin: Ready to Break Psychological Resistance?BTC is maintaining its bullish structure with strong rebounds from the trendline since April. The price is now approaching the psychological resistance zone at 119,000 – a level that has been rejected three times before.
If support at 104,700 holds and the resistance is broken, BTC could target the 125,000 area. On the other hand, losing this support could interrupt the bullish momentum.
Trade Setup:
Buy around 104,700–106,000
TP: 119,000
SL: below 103,000
Note:
The upcoming NFP report on July 5 may trigger sharp moves if strong data boosts the USD.
Do you expect a breakout or another rejection?
Strong Bullish Momentum or a Short-Term Setback?XAUUSD Analysis – 02/07: Strong Bullish Momentum or a Short-Term Setback?
Gold has made a strong recovery after a brief period of consolidation last month, and it continues to show signs of strong bullish momentum. The price has been fluctuating, yet the overall trend remains positive. Let’s dive into the technical setup for today’s trading session.
📊 Market Overview:
Recent Price Action: After confirming a bullish reversal on the H1 timeframe earlier this week, Gold has surged significantly. Yesterday, it reached 3358, completing wave 3 of an Elliott structure on the M30 chart, followed by a slight correction during the US and Asian sessions.
Short-Term Correction: Wave 4 is currently underway, and there are two potential outcomes for this correction:
It could find support at 3328-3330, leading to a continuation of the bullish trend.
Alternatively, it may dip further to the 330x range before resuming the uptrend.
🧭 Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 3328 – 3313 – 3304 – 3294
Resistance: 3344 – 3360 – 3368 – 3388
🧠 Trading Strategy for Today:
Buy Scenario:
Watch for a potential bounce around the 3328-3330 range. If this area holds, we can look for buying opportunities with a target towards 3358 and 3360.
If the price breaks through the 3340 level, consider entering long positions and setting targets around 3350-3360.
Sell Scenario:
Sell Near Resistance: A quick scalping opportunity could arise near the 3388-3390 resistance zone. Tight SL and reasonable TP at 3384-3380 are the targets to aim for.
For a longer-term Sell position, wait for a clearer breakdown below 3370 to target deeper levels like 3360.
🎯 Trading Plan for Today:
BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3306 – 3304
SL: 3300
TP: 3310 → 3315 → 3320 → 3325 → 3330 → 3340
SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3388 – 3390
SL: 3394
TP: 3384 → 3380 → 3376 → 3370 → 3365 → 3360 → 3350
⚡️ Key Considerations:
The US macroeconomic data release and potential volatility from ADP NonFarm Payrolls today could provide significant movement, so stay alert and monitor the data closely.
In Summary:
Bullish bias remains intact with strong buy opportunities around key support levels like 3328-3330.
For short-term traders, focus on quick scalping within the resistance zones, but don’t forget to follow the trend for the longer-term buy strategy.
💡 Stay cautious with your Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP) to manage risk effectively. Happy trading! 🌟
Gold Holds Strong Above $3,335 – Is $3,390 the Next Target?Hey traders!
Let’s take a quick look at what’s happening with gold today
Gold continues to hold its impressive bullish momentum, trading firmly above the $3,335 mark. The rally is fueled by a sliding US dollar and declining US Treasury yields, which are driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to its lowest level since early 2022, while the 10-year Treasury yield sits around 4.19%. These conditions give the Federal Reserve more room to consider rate cuts—supporting gold’s upside.
Adding to the bullish case, fresh data shows a recovery in US manufacturing, further boosting demand for gold.
📈 On the technical side, gold is moving just as we anticipated: it’s broken out of the descending channel and is currently forming a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. If the pattern completes, we could see the next leg higher pushing toward $3,390.
What do you think — is gold ready for another breakout?
Drop your view below! 💬
Gold Bulls are back in control?Gold has delivered exactly what we were hoping to see! The new month opening brought impressive strength, and the technical picture has shifted again in favor of the bulls.
Gold successfully broke above critical 3308 weekly pivot level we've been watching.
The bearish HH/LL pattern has been broken this is very good sign for changing the overall trend direction and That descending trendline resistance that was capping rallies has finally been taken out.
Gold is now sitting in a much stronger technical position. All the pieces we needed for a genuine reversal are falling into place. The bulls have reclaimed control as of now.
Support to Hold: 3300-3308 zone
This is now our critical support area. As long as gold holds above this zone, the bullish momentum seems to be in favor of bulls.
Upside Targets:
Weekly R1: 3360 - First major resistance to watch
Weekly R2: 3447 - Next significant target if momentum continues
The technical transformation is clear we've gone from a corrective phase to what looks like a resumption of the bullish trend. The bulls are back , and as long as we maintain support above 3300-3308, those higher targets become very realistic.
XAUUSD jumps 4,873 pips – Is the bullish momentum back?Yesterday, gold surged by 4,873 pips, equivalent to a $48.73 gain, signaling strong buying pressure after a technical correction. Price rebounded from Support 1 near $3,264 — a key support zone in previous sessions. The current price structure suggests a high probability of breaking above the $3,347 resistance and continuing toward the $3,389 target. Notably, the filled green FVG zone confirms the recovery and reinforces confidence in the bullish outlook.
On the news front, the de-escalation of the Iran–Israel conflict caused a brief drop in gold earlier. However, the US dollar remains at its weakest level in three years, and rising concerns over a potential budget deficit from the $3.3–3.9 trillion US tax reform package continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset.
Trade strategy: Look for long opportunities if price holds above $3,264 and clearly breaks through $3,347. The next upside target lies around the $3,389 resistance zone.
Gold Rises as Quarter Ends – Can Bulls Push Toward 3,345?June 30 marks the final trading day of both the month and the quarter, making it a key session for technical traders. On Monday, gold edged higher, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar. The greenback slid against the yen and dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years versus the euro, fueled by market optimism around U.S. trade deals. This helped reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates earlier than previously anticipated—giving gold the boost it needed to break above the 3,300 USD barrier.
From a technical perspective, short-term momentum now favors the bulls after a clear breakout above the descending parallel channel. If this move holds, the next upside target is projected near the 3,345 USD zone, as highlighted on the chart.
However, be careful because this can also be a fake breakout.
XAUUSD 01/07: GOLD'S RELIEF RALLY FROM A MONTHLY LOWXAUUSD 01/07: GOLD'S RELIEF RALLY FROM A MONTHLY LOW – USD WEAKENS, BUT CLEAR MOMENTUM IS STILL MISSING
🌍 Market Overview – USD Weakness & Gold's Rebound Potential
After a significant drop to a one-month low, Gold is beginning to recover slightly, partly due to a weaker USD, improving market sentiment. However, the rally remains cautious and still lacks a strong momentum to push gold decisively higher.
💵 USD Weakness: Can Gold Continue to Rebound?
Recent US economic data has shown a slight decline in consumer spending, which has led to speculations that the Federal Reserve may take a more dovish stance on interest rates in the near future. This has weakened the USD, providing room for Gold to rebound slightly.
That said, there hasn't been a significant catalyst to push Gold into a strong breakout yet.
📉 The Fed is Still the Key Player
The market is closely watching the Fed's next moves. However, there’s a divide on whether interest rates will be cut or maintained. The recent US data isn’t weak enough to warrant a policy change from the Fed, but it’s also not strong enough for the Fed to keep its hawkish stance intact.
This leaves Gold in a limbo, with no clear direction in the near term. Gold is caught between weak expectations of further rate cuts and the ongoing strength of the USD.
🧠 Analysis for Traders:
Gold is responding lightly to macroeconomic factors but hasn’t established a strong trend. This is a period prone to market noise—Gold may jump up and down on news, but the momentum required to establish a consistent trend is lacking.
Traders should monitor USD movements and US labor data closely this week, especially the NFP report, as this could provide more clarity for Gold’s future direction.
✍️ Conclusion:
Gold is recovering from its lows, but it remains uncertain.
The Buy side hopes for rate cuts by the Fed.
The Sell side is betting on USD strength.
As for us traders, let’s stay patient, observe closely, and be ready for the next move. The big wave may still be coming, but smaller price actions right now could give us clues for the upcoming trend.
🔶 Key Levels & Strategy:
Current Support Zone: Gold is holding above the critical psychological support levels of 3300-3304. If the upward momentum continues, a move towards 335x-337x is highly possible in the near term.
Liquidity Gap: Currently, there’s a liquidity gap at the higher levels. The goal is for Gold to rise further to fill this gap before any deeper retracement occurs.
📈 Trading Plan:
BUY ZONE: 3303 – 3301
‼️ SL: 3297
✔️ TP: 3306 → 3310 → 3315 → 3320 → 3325 → 3330 → ???
SELL ZONE: 3358 – 3360
‼️ SL: 3364
✔️ TP: 3354 → 3350 → 3345 → 3340 → 3320
⚡ Final Thoughts:
As the market awaits further data, keep an eye on these key support and resistance levels for your trading setups.
The overall trend is still upward, but short-term volatility is expected. Make sure to follow your risk management strategies.
Gold Analysis: Perfect Bounce from 3248 SupportJust as we discussed in yesterday's analysis, gold has delivered an excellent bounce from that Fibonacci golden support zone (3248-3287). The bulls stepped in right where we expected them to, and the reaction has been quite impressive.
Monthly & Quarterly Close Above 3300: Gold managed to close both the month and quarter above that critical 3300 psychological level. These higher timeframe closes carry significant weight and suggest the bulls aren't ready to give up just yet.
Weekly Pivot Reclaimed:Today we're seeing gold trade above the 3308 weekly pivot level . This is exactly what we needed to see for any meaningful recovery attempt.
.All these factors are lining up in the bulls' favor, but there's still one critical piece missing breaking resistance trendline that's been creating the lower high (LH) and lower low (LL) structure.
What We Need to See:
For gold to confirm this isn't just another counter-trend bounce, the bulls need to:
1. Break above that descending trendline resistance
2. Hold the breakout on higher timeframes
3. Create a higher high to break the current bearish structure
We're at a pivotal moment. The bounce from the golden zone was textbook, the monthly/quarterly closes were bullish, and we're back above the weekly pivot. Now it's all about whether the bulls have enough momentum to break through that structural resistance.
If they can claim territory above that trendline and hold it, we could see a strong continuation higher. But if they get rejected here, it might just be another failed attempt in the ongoing correction which can lead to consolidation in big range.
this week will be crucial in determining gold's near-term direction.