XAUUSD – Bullish Signal Taking ShapeGold begins the week on a positive note, supported by:
U.S. inflation coming in lower than expected, raising expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in the coming months.
Tensions between Israel and Iran, which are driving safe-haven flows into gold.
On the H4 chart, the price is pulling back toward the $3,397 support zone, which aligns with both the EMA and a previous accumulation area. The current structure suggests a potential W-shaped reversal pattern, which could propel gold toward the $3,501 resistance level.
Main strategy: Look for buy setups around $3,397 upon bullish confirmation.
Target: $3,500
Stop loss: Below $3,380
Gold remains in an uptrend. The $3,397 zone is the key level that could trigger the next upward move.
M-forex
Gold Consolidating at Key Support: Is the Next Move a Reversal?XAUUSD 17 June – Gold Consolidating at Key Support: Is the Next Move a Reversal?
After a strong rally to 3,448 – the highest level in 8 weeks – gold faced profit booking and pulled back sharply towards 3,385. However, price is now sitting at a critical confluence of technical zones, and smart money may be preparing for the next strategic leg. Let’s decode the structure...
🌐 Macro & Market Sentiment
Geopolitical heat remains: Israel–Iran tension is far from cooling. Trump's statements about evacuating Tehran and pushing for a new nuclear deal are fueling safe-haven demand.
Fed policy meeting + US Retail Sales ahead: These upcoming events will shape inflation expectations and rate path clarity. Traders are cautious but alert.
Capital rotation: Large funds may be temporarily exiting gold and shifting into oil and stocks—triggering short-term volatility, not trend reversals.
📊 Technical Breakdown (M30-H1 Confluence)
Trend channel: Gold is currently trading within a descending short-term channel after failing to hold above the 3,440–3,448 supply zone.
EMA alignment (13-34-89-200): Squeezing closer, indicating momentum exhaustion and possible bullish crossover if support holds.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) + historical support + ascending trendline align near 3,345 → strong liquidity pocket forming here.
🎯 Trade Setups for Today
✅ BUY Setup (Liquidity Rebound)
BUY ZONE: 3,344 – 3,342
SL: 3,338
Targets:
→ 3,348 → 3,352 → 3,356 → 3,360
→ 3,364 → 3,368 → 3,372 → 3,380+
🧠 Ideal entry if price forms bullish rejection candle in this zone, especially during London open. Look for long-tail or inside bar confirmation.
⚠️ SELL Setup (Scalp-Only if Rejected)
SELL ZONE: 3,440 – 3,442
SL: 3,446
Targets:
→ 3,436 → 3,432 → 3,428 → 3,424
→ 3,420 → 3,415 → 3,410
📌 Only short if there's strong rejection from this supply zone. No blind entry—wait for clear bearish momentum or reversal wick with high volume.
🧭 Market Psychology
Retail traders were trapped on the breakout—smart money likely unloading at highs.
Price is now retracing to gather liquidity. If the 3,344 zone holds, we could see a powerful impulsive recovery.
Don’t trade the noise — trade the zones. Volume behavior around these levels will reveal market intention.
📌 Final Thoughts
This is a classic case of controlled retracement after a breakout. If gold finds support at the BUY ZONE, the next bullish wave could target 3,400+ again. But if the 3,345 area fails, deeper correction toward 3,320 is possible.
🧘♂️ Stay patient. Let price come to you.
✅ Follow structure, respect SL, and trade with clarity.
XAU/USD Bullish Continuation SetupThe chart illustrates a bullish market structure for XAU/USD, with price action currently trending upwards. Key technical observations:
Support Zone:
Price has recently bounced from a support zone around 3,399.710, indicating strong buying interest.
Bullish Projection:
A bullish continuation is expected. The chart outlines a potential scenario with a minor retracement towards 3,432.835 or 3,399.710, followed by a strong upward move.
Targets:
Immediate resistance is around 3,502.669.
If broken, price may aim for 3,550.351.
Final projected target lies near 3,680.000, which aligns with a historical supply zone.
Indicators:
The green enveloping bands suggest increasing volatility, with the price respecting the upper band, supporting bullish momentum.
Conclusion:
XAU/USD appears poised for a bullish breakout continuation. A potential pullback could offer a buy opportunity, targeting higher resistance zones as long as the structure remains intact.
Gold Drops After Asian FOMO: Bull Trap or Liquidity Grab?🟡 XAUUSD 16/06 – Gold Drops After Asian FOMO: Bull Trap or Liquidity Grab?
After a strong bullish rally in the Asian session driven by fear-based headlines and war news, gold (XAUUSD) suddenly reversed sharply — confusing many retail traders who jumped in late. But when we look deeper into price behavior and volume, the story becomes clearer...
📌 Key Fundamental Insights
🔸 Geopolitical headlines (war tensions, assassination attempts) triggered a FOMO rally in gold early in Asia.
🔸 However, the lack of follow-through volume suggests this may have been a bull trap—a smart money strategy to unload positions into emotional buying.
🔸 Big funds could be reallocating capital temporarily from gold into:
🔹 Stocks (tech & value sectors are correcting attractively)
🔹 Oil (Middle East tension = higher oil price = strong institutional interest)
🔍 Technical Outlook (M30 Chart)
The technical structure shows a textbook liquidity play:
🔻 Price spiked into resistance at 3456, then reversed
🧊 EMAs (13/34/89/200) are flattening → signs of potential bearish crossover on M15–M30
📉 Volume has been declining → confirms exhaustion of the FOMO move
📦 A large Fair Value Gap (FVG) sits below current price, acting as a magnet for liquidity
🎯 Strategy Setup
Scenario 1: BUY from FVG (Liquidity Reclaim)
Entry: 3383 – 3385
SL: 3377
TPs: 3386 → 3390 → 3394 → 3398 → 3402 → 3406 → 3410+
Structure favors a bounce from this zone if confirmed by price action during London or NY sessions.
Scenario 2: SELL if price re-tests 3456–3458
Entry: Only on clear rejection
SL: 3462
TPs: 3452 → 3448 → 3444 → 3440 → 3435 → 3430
⚠️ Avoid shorting blindly — only trade confirmed rejections with strong candle setups.
Market Psychology Right Now
Big players may be unloading gold to rotate into oil and equities
Asian FOMO = retail got trapped
Volume profile shows imbalance: market likely seeking liquidity lower before moving higher again
📝 Final Thoughts
Gold is in a volatile reaccumulation zone. Rather than chasing price, it’s better to let the market come to your planned zones. The 3383–3385 zone will be critical. If it holds, we may see a solid bounce into next week.
Discipline beats emotion. Respect your SL and stick to the zone logic.
📌 Follow for intraday updates. Will post re-entry plan during London session if price reacts early.
Option Trading Master class Part -6What is Option Trading?
Definition:
Options are derivative contracts that give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a pre-decided price within a specific timeframe.
Types of Options:
Call Option: Right to buy
Put Option: Right to sell
Option Participants:
Buyers (Holders): Limited risk, unlimited reward
Sellers (Writers): Limited reward, unlimited risk
How Options Work (With Example)
Imagine Reliance stock is trading at ₹2,500.
Call Buyer: Buys a ₹2,500 Call Option by paying ₹50 premium
Scenario A (Stock goes to ₹2,600):
Intrinsic value = ₹100
Profit = ₹100 – ₹50 = ₹50 per share
Scenario B (Stock goes to ₹2,400):
Option expires worthless
Loss = ₹50 (premium paid)
Option Trading Master class Part -7Fundamentals of Stock Investing
Types of Investors:
Value Investors: Focus on undervalued companies
Growth Investors: Target high-growth potential stocks
Dividend Investors: Prefer regular income from dividends
Research Parameters:
Earnings per Share (EPS)
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
Return on Equity (ROE)
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Industry Trends
Tools for Investing:
Demat and Trading Account
Research Platforms (e.g., TradingView, Screener.in)
Portfolio Tracker (e.g., Zerodha Console)
Option Trading Master classIntroduction to Investing and Option Trading
Investing and option trading are two pillars of wealth creation and risk management in modern finance. Investing focuses on long-term growth by acquiring assets that appreciate over time, while option trading involves strategic bets on price movements within a defined period using derivative contracts. Together, they offer investors a combination of growth, income, and hedging capabilities.
What is Investing?
Definition:
Investing is the process of allocating money into financial instruments (like stocks, bonds, ETFs, or real estate) with the expectation of generating a return over time.
Key Objectives:
Wealth accumulation
Passive income generation
Capital preservation
Beating inflation
Common Asset Classes:
Equity (Stocks): Ownership in companies
Fixed Income (Bonds): Lending capital to earn interest
Real Estate: Physical properties generating rental income
Mutual Funds/ETFs: Pooled investments
Commodities and Gold: Inflation hedges
Learn institutional Trading Part -5Option Buying vs Selling
Option Buyers
Pay premium
Unlimited profit, limited risk
Need strong directional movement
Option Sellers (Writers)
Receive premium
Limited profit, unlimited risk
Thrive in sideways or range-bound markets
Need deep knowledge of Greeks and risk management
6. Popular Option Trading Strategies
Beginner Strategies
Long Call/Put – Directional trades
Protective Put – Hedge stock losses
Covered Call – Generate income from holdings
Intermediate Strategies
Bull Call Spread – Buy and sell calls of different strikes
Bear Put Spread – Buy and sell puts
Straddle – Buy both call and put at same strike (high volatility)
Strangle – Buy OTM call and put (cheaper than straddle)
Advanced Strategies
Iron Condor – Neutral strategy with 4 legs
Butterfly Spread – Limited risk range strategy
Calendar Spread – Exploiting time decay differences
Ratio Spread – More contracts sold than bought
Learn institution Trading Part -3How Option Prices Move – The Greeks
Delta: Sensitivity to price change in the underlying
Gamma: Rate of change of Delta
Theta: Time decay – loss in value as expiry nears
Vega: Sensitivity to Implied Volatility (IV)
Rho: Interest rate sensitivity
Understanding Greeks helps manage risk, adjust positions, and time trades better.
4. Why Traders Choose Options
Leverage: Control large positions with limited capital
Risk Control: Limited loss in buying options
Flexibility: Multiple strategies (bullish, bearish, neutral)
Hedging: Protect existing stock portfolios
Income Generation: Through writing options like covered calls
Master class 9. Introduction to Option Trading
Options are powerful derivative instruments that give buyers the right (not obligation) to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specific time. They are commonly used for hedging, speculation, and income strategies.
There are two basic types:
Call Options: Right to buy
Put Options: Right to sell
Options derive value from stocks, indices (Nifty, Bank Nifty), commodities, or currencies and are traded on platforms like NSE in India.
2. Key Terminology in Option Trading
Strike Price: Price at which the option can be exercised
Premium: Cost of buying the option
Expiry: Last day the option is valid
Lot Size: Fixed number of underlying units (e.g., 50 for Nifty)
Intrinsic Value: Real value of an option if exercised now
Time Value: Portion of premium linked to time left before expiry
ATM/ITM/OTM: At The Money, In The Money, Out of The Money – defines moneyness of options
Advanced Technical Master classMulti-Timeframe Analysis involves analyzing multiple chart timeframes (Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4H, 1H) to confirm trend direction and improve timing accuracy.
Application:
Identify long-term trend (Monthly/Weekly)
Use Daily/4H for entry signals
Filter noise with lower timeframes
Key Tools: Moving Averages, Trendlines, MACD
Module 2: Advanced Chart Patterns
Key Patterns Covered:
Harmonic Patterns (Gartley, Bat, Crab)
Elliott Waves (Impulse & Corrective Waves)
Wyckoff Method (Accumulation/Distribution Phases)
Practical Use:
Pattern + Volume = Strong Entry
Combine with Fib levels for reversal confirmation
Module 3: Volume Price Analysis (VPA)
Core Principle:
Volume precedes price. Learn to read volume spikes, absorption, and exhaustion.
Indicators to Use:
On Balance Volume (OBV)
Volume Profile
VWAP
Institution Master class Welcome to the Institution Trading Master Class, an advanced educational module crafted for serious traders and investors who want to understand how big institutions trade, move markets, and manage risk at scale. This course blends practical market experience with strategic tools and institutional concepts.
📘 Page 1: Understanding Institutional Trading
🔹 What is Institutional Trading?
Institutional trading refers to market activities performed by large entities like:
Mutual Funds
Pension Funds
Hedge Funds
Insurance Companies
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)
BTC/USDT Bullish Reversal Zone AnalysisSupport Zone:
The horizontal purple box (~104,000 USDT area) has acted as a strong support/resistance flip zone multiple times.
Falling Wedge Breakout:
The price action broke out of a falling wedge pattern earlier, confirming bullish momentum.
Flag Formation (Current):
A smaller bullish flag/pennant appears to be forming, and a breakout above could trigger a strong upward move.
Projected Move:
The black arrow indicates a potential bounce from this support zone, with the price targeting the 111,000–112,000 USDT zone (highlighted in the top purple box).
Volume Spike:
Notable volume spike near the bottom supports the idea of accumulation and possible reversal.
📈 Conclusion:
If the support zone holds and price breaks above the minor flag, a bullish continuation is likely toward the 111,000–112,000 resistance area. Traders should watch for confirmation of a breakout and volume increase for validation.
XAUUSD – Uptrend, waiting for pullback to enterGold is moving within an ascending channel on the 3-hour timeframe. After touching the resistance zone at 3,445–3,460, XAUUSD shows signs of consolidation and is likely to correct down to the support zone at 3,390–3,400 — aligning with the trendline and EMA34.
Strategy:
Watch for buying opportunities around the 3,390–3,400 zone when there are confirmation signals.
Target: 3,445–3,460, and potentially up to the 3,480–3,500 zone.
Stop loss if price falls below EMA89 (3,352).
Supporting news:
U.S. CPI data for May came in lower than expected (0.0% vs 0.1%) → Raises expectations of an earlier Fed rate cut → Supports the gold uptrend.
GBP/USD: Continuation or Correction?GBP/USD is in an uptrend, with support at 1.34760 and resistance at 1.36190. EMA (34) at 1.35277 and EMA (89) at 1.34379 are supporting the uptrend.
UK inflation data dropping has strengthened GBP, while USD remains volatile due to expectations of Fed rate hikes. If GBP/USD stays above 1.34760, the uptrend will likely continue.
However, if the price breaks below this level, a deeper correction may occur. The strategy is to buy on a pullback to 1.34760 and sell if support is broken. Manage risk by placing stop-loss orders around key support levels.
EURUSD – Buyers Remain in Control, Awaiting Confirmation SignalThe EURUSD pair posted a slight pullback after reaching the upper resistance zone of the ascending channel around 1.16130 on June 12. However, the bullish structure remains intact, with higher lows and clear respect for the upward channel on the 8H chart.
Technically, the 1.14590 zone — which aligns with both the trendline and the EMA34 — will act as a key support area. If the price holds this level and rebounds, the likelihood of retesting the 1.16130 high is strong. Conversely, a break below 1.14590 could trigger a deeper correction.
On the fundamental side, the euro is supported by expectations that the ECB will maintain its current interest rates, while cooling U.S. CPI data has weakened the dollar.
Gold Surges After FOMC, Eyes Breakout Above 3,515Gold prices surged sharply on June 12 following positive FOMC and CPI results, closing at 3,429 – up more than 1.2%. The technical structure remains firmly within an ascending channel on the 8H chart, with higher lows consistently supported by the EMA34 and trendline.
The 3,488–3,515 resistance zone will be a key test in the coming sessions. If price breaks and holds above this level, the next target will be new highs. Conversely, a minor pullback toward the 3,348 area – aligned with the trendline and EMA – may offer a trend-following buy opportunity if confirmed by price action.
Gold is receiving strong support from cooler U.S. CPI data, which has boosted expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates soon. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and bullish outlooks from major institutions continue to reinforce gold’s safe-haven appeal.
AUD/USD at Critical Resistance — Bearish Outlook Below 0.65381. Major Resistance Zone: 0.65380
Price is currently testing a strong horizontal resistance level at 0.65380, a level that has been tested multiple times (as shown by the pink circles).
This level has acted as a historical turning point, which increases its significance.
2. Price Structure: Lower Highs and Equal Highs
The chart reveals a potential double top or distribution pattern, forming under the 0.65380 resistance.
This suggests weakening bullish momentum and increases the probability of a bearish reversal.
3. Projected Bearish Path (White Dotted Lines):
If price fails to break above 0.65380 decisively, the expected move is a stepwise decline.
The projected path targets several support levels:
0.65003
0.64647
0.64213
0.63957
Final target: 0.63627, a key support from early May.
4. Support & Resistance Zones:
Resistance Levels:
0.65380 (Major)
0.65003
Support Levels (Sequential Targets):
0.64647
0.64213
0.63957
0.63627
5. Confluence with Fundamentals:
U.S. economic events (highlighted at the bottom with calendar icons) may act as volatility triggers, potentially accelerating this move.
✅ Summary & Trading Implications:
Bias: Bearish below 0.65380
Trade Idea: Watch for rejection at resistance or break below 0.65003 for confirmation.
Bearish Targets: Gradual move toward 0.63627 with key pauses at intermediate support levels.
Invalidation: Daily close above 0.65380 would negate the bearish setup and open potential for new highs.
Institution Option Trading Part-7Regulatory & Risk Considerations
SEBI (India) & SEC (US) regulations limit speculative exposure.
Institutions must report Open Interest, Position Limits, Margin Usage.
Must adhere to VaR (Value at Risk) frameworks and internal risk policies.
Institutional Trading during Events
Earnings Seasons: Institutions use straddles/strangles for earnings plays.
Budget or RBI Policy: Protective collars/volatility trades.
Global Crisis (e.g. COVID): Use of massive protective puts (SPX, NIFTY).
VIX & Institutional Behavior
India VIX plays a vital role in determining institutional option strategies.
High VIX = buying protection, long gamma strategies.
Low VIX = selling premium, income strategies.
Institution Option Trading Part-2.0Institutional Order Flow – Market Impact
Option Flow as Signal: Large trades in options market may indicate upcoming moves in underlying assets.
Unusual Options Activity (UOA): Tracked by smart money traders to anticipate institutional moves.
Dark Pools: Institutions often use off-exchange mechanisms to avoid price impact.
Tools & Analytics Used by Institutions
Volatility Surface Analysis
Greeks Sensitivity Scans (Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta)
Skew Charts & Term Structure
Trade Cost Analysis (TCA)
Liquidity Heatmaps
Algo Execution Strategies (TWAP, VWAP)
Institution Option Trading Part-6Introduction to Institutional Option Trading
Institutional option trading refers to the use of options by large financial institutions such as hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, and proprietary trading desks to manage risk, enhance returns, or speculate on price movements. Unlike retail traders, institutions bring scale, research, and complex strategies to the options market.
Slide 2: Key Characteristics of Institutional Traders
Large Capital Base: Institutions trade in bulk with millions or billions of dollars.
Data Advantage: Access to premium data, analytics, and predictive algorithms.
Advanced Infrastructure: High-frequency execution systems, smart order routing.
Risk Management Focus: Use options for hedging equity, credit, FX, or commodity exposure.
Regulatory Boundaries: Subject to risk limits, compliance, and disclosures
Gold Surges Amid Middle East TensionsXAUUSD – Gold Surges Amid Middle East Tensions | What’s Next After 3430 Break?
🌍 Macro & Geopolitical Overview
Gold prices accelerated sharply in the Asian session on June 13 after Israel launched a large-scale airstrike campaign against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities including the Natanz uranium enrichment site.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared the mission would continue until the Iranian nuclear threat is “completely neutralized.”
Iran suffered major losses and scrambled its air force to prepare for retaliation.
WTI oil jumped over 8%, gold spiked to $3,430/oz, and US equities dropped sharply.
While the US claimed it would not participate directly in the attack, it vowed to defend its forces in the region if threatened.
This rapidly escalating geopolitical conflict has triggered a renewed flight into safe-haven assets, with gold leading the pack.
📉 Technical Outlook – M30 / H1 Chart
🔹 Trend Structure
Gold has broken out decisively above 3,392, forming a strong bullish leg and carving new short-term support around 3,412 – 3,426.
Price action is forming a Higher High – Higher Low structure within a rising channel.
🔹 Fair Value Gap (FVG)
A visible FVG between 3,405 – 3,412 has formed. As long as price holds above this zone, bullish continuation is favored.
🔹 EMA Structure
Price is well above all key EMAs (13, 34, 89, 200), confirming a strong bullish environment. EMA13 continues to guide intraday momentum.
🔹 Key Resistance Zone
Watch for potential distribution or profit-taking around 3,441 – 3,456 – a major resistance area if no further escalation occurs.
🧠 Market Sentiment & Behavior
Investor sentiment has shifted firmly into risk-off mode.
Funds are flowing heavily into gold, oil, CHF, and JPY.
Price volatility is likely to spike further, as headlines continue to drive intraday sentiment.
🎯 Updated Trade Setup – 13 June
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3384 – 3382
Stop-Loss: 3378
Take-Profit: 3388 → 3392 → 3396 → 3400 → 3405 → 3410
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3454 – 3456
Stop-Loss: 3460
Take-Profit: 3450 → 3446 → 3442 → 3438 → 3434 → 3430
✅ Conclusion
The renewed conflict between Israel and Iran is fueling gold’s rise as global risk appetite collapses. Technically, the trend remains bullish, but volatility is extremely elevated. Traders should watch key price zones closely and avoid emotional trades during event-driven spikes.
⚠️ Trade the reaction, not the prediction. Let key levels confirm bias before entering.
GBPUSD – Resistance Pressures, Downside Risk EmergingAfter rebounding from the EMA89 area near 1.3500, GBPUSD recovered to approach the 1.3600 resistance zone but was quickly rejected. The H4 chart shows weakening bullish momentum as price retests the previous distribution area without managing a close above it.
The current technical structure leans toward a potential pullback, especially since the EMA34 and trendline support zone has not been broken. If the price breaks back below 1.3500, the next target would be around 1.3440 – the previous key support.
Recent news shows a slight decline in US CPI, temporarily weakening the USD, but the market is now focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting to determine the rate direction. If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, GBPUSD is likely to come under renewed downward pressure.