Gold Technical Update: Is Tuesday's Low the Bottom ?It looks like we printed our low on Tuesday (June 24th), and now gold is showing some signs of reversal with the current bounce. The key question is whether this momentum can sustain itself through some critical resistance zones.
Key Resistance Levels to Watch:
3350-55 - This is our first major test. this level is the confluence with the 0.38 Fibonacci retracement level. If we see a clean break here with volume, it sets up the next target.
3380-85 - This is the big one for today and this week. this level also aligns with the weekly pivot. If the bulls can claim this territory and hold it into the close, we're likely looking at a continuation higher toward upper levels around 3400+.
Support Levels:
The PDL is now acting as our immediate support level. Below that, we've still got that psychological 3300 level as major support ,the same area that provided the floor earlier this week.
M-forex
Put Call Ratio (PCR) Explained in Simple TermsWhat is PCR?
The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) is a popular market sentiment indicator used in option trading. It helps traders understand whether more people are buying put options (bearish bets) or call options (bullish bets) at a given time.
Put Options: Contracts betting the price will go down.
Call Options: Contracts betting the price will go up.
How to Read PCR?
PCR < 1: More call options → Bullish sentiment.
PCR > 1: More put options → Bearish sentiment.
PCR = 1: Neutral sentiment.
But extreme values often suggest the opposite:
Very High PCR: Possible market reversal upwards (too many bearish bets).
Very Low PCR: Possible market reversal downwards (too many bullish bets).
Example:
Put OI: 5,00,000 contracts
Call OI: 10,00,000 contracts
PCR = 5,00,000 / 10,00,000 = 0.5 → This indicates bullish sentiment.
Why PCR Matters?
Helps identify market mood (bullish or bearish).
Gives contrarian signals (overcrowded trades can reverse).
Used in option trading strategies for timing entry and exit.
Learn Institutional Trading Pros and Cons
Pros: Early signals, useful for reversals.
Cons: Requires confirmation, may produce false signals.
Technical Trading
What is Technical Trading?
Technical trading focuses on using historical price data, volume, and technical indicators to predict future price movements. Traders use charts and patterns instead of company fundamentals.
Key Tools in Technical Trading
Price Charts: Candlestick, line, bar charts.
Indicators: Moving averages, RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands.
Chart Patterns: Head and Shoulders, Triangles, Double Tops, Flags.
Support and Resistance Levels: Key price points where stocks reverse.
Why People Trade OptionsKey Components of Options
Strike Price: The pre-agreed price at which the option can be exercised.
Premium: The price you pay to buy the option contract.
Expiration Date: The date until which the option is valid.
Why People Trade Options
Leverage: Small investment, potential for large returns.
Hedging: Protects portfolio from losses.
Speculation: Betting on price movements.
Example
If a stock is currently priced at ₹500, you can buy a call option with a strike price of ₹550, expiring in one month, by paying a premium of ₹5. If the stock price rises to ₹600, you can buy at ₹550 and immediately sell at ₹600, making a profit.
Learn Institutional Trading Part-2What is Investing?
Investing involves committing your money to various assets like stocks, mutual funds, gold, real estate, or bonds to grow your wealth over time. Investing is generally a long-term strategy, focusing on the gradual accumulation of wealth.
Key Types of Investments
Stock Market Investments: Buying shares of companies.
Mutual Funds: Pooling money with other investors.
Bonds: Lending money to companies or governments for interest.
Gold & Real Estate: Physical assets that typically grow over time.
Investment Strategies
Value Investing: Buying undervalued stocks.
Growth Investing: Investing in companies with high growth potential.
Dividend Investing: Investing in companies that pay regular dividends.
Benefits of Investing
Builds wealth over time.
Helps fight inflation.
Provides financial security.
Learn Institutional Trading Part-4Technical Trading
Technical trading uses charts, patterns, and indicators to make decisions.
Traders study past price movements, volume, and signals to predict future trends instead of focusing on company financials.
Stock Market
The stock market is a place where shares of companies are bought and sold.
It’s like a big online shopping mall for stocks (e.g., NSE, BSE, NYSE). Prices go up and down based on demand, news, earnings, and investor emotions.
Ready for a Fresh Rally Ahead of July FOMC Buzz?XAUUSD: Powell's "Soft Tone" Ignites Gold – Ready for a Fresh Rally Ahead of July FOMC Buzz?
🌍 Macro Landscape: Gold Reacts to Fed's Cues – Easing Rate Pressures?
The gold market (XAUUSD) is witnessing a resurgence of positive momentum, driven by recent "dovish-leaning" signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during his congressional testimony. Powell's acknowledgment of lower-than-expected inflation from tariffs, coupled with hints of a potential earlier interest rate cut (possibly as early as July), is creating a fresh wave of market anticipation.
While Powell cautiously noted "no need to rush," market participants are interpreting his remarks as an indication that current monetary policy might be "somewhat restrictive." Should inflation continue its sustainable deceleration, the Fed would be poised to ease policy sooner. This directly impacts gold: as rate cut expectations rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold (a non-yielding asset) diminishes, making it significantly more appealing to investors.
🏦 Central Bank Policy: Fed's Evolving Stance & Market Re-calibration
Federal Reserve (Fed): Chair Powell's nuanced message suggests a more adaptable Fed, ready to align its policy with actual inflation data. His emphasis on the Fed's independence from political influence further solidifies confidence in data-driven decisions.
Market Re-calibration: While the broader market still leans towards a September rate cut, the probability of a July cut is subtly increasing, according to the CME FedWatch Tool (with 70.1% anticipating a cut to 4.00 - 4.25% by September). This re-pricing of policy risk is a crucial supportive factor, helping gold maintain stability around the $3,300–$3,320/oz mark, indicating smart money accumulation.
This evolving Fed perspective, even a slight shift, is powerful enough to influence capital flows and investor sentiment globally, setting the stage for significant gold movements.
🌐 Capital Flows: Gold & USD – The Shifting Safe-Haven Dynamics
Global capital flows are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and perceived risks. Historically, both gold and the U.S. dollar serve as primary safe havens during periods of uncertainty.
If Powell's "dovish tilt" gains further traction and leads to earlier rate cuts, we could anticipate a notable rotation in capital:
Outflows from USD: Lower U.S. yields would diminish the attractiveness of the USD as a yielding asset.
Inflows into Gold: The reduced opportunity cost of holding gold, combined with its intrinsic store-of-value appeal, could trigger substantial capital flows into the precious metal, especially amidst persistent global geopolitical tensions.
The market's re-evaluation of Fed policy risk is already contributing to gold's resilience, suggesting that strategic positioning for an upside move might be underway.
📊 Technical Structure (H4/M30 Chart Analysis): Gold Breaking Bearish Bias, Targeting Higher Levels
Based on the provided XAUUSD chart (H4/M30 timeframe):
Channel Breakout: Gold has visibly broken out of a prior descending channel, signaling a clear weakening of selling pressure and a potential trend reversal. The price is currently consolidating and appears to be forming a new accumulation pattern or a smaller ascending channel.
Key Price Levels:
Potential Sell Zone (Resistance): Around 3,352.383 - 3,371.205. This zone aligns with significant Fibonacci retracement levels (0.5 and 0.618 from the last major swing down) and represents a strong historical resistance cluster. If the price attempts to breach this zone and fails, selling pressure could emerge.
Higher Resistance: 3,391.750 - 3,395.000. This is a formidable resistance area. A decisive break above this level would confirm a more robust long-term bullish trend.
Current Buy Zone (Support): Around 3,302.939 - 3,311.214. This is a critical demand zone, where strong buying interest is likely to surface, coinciding with recent swing lows.
Next Key Support: 3,286.257. Should the 3,302.939 - 3,311.214 zone be breached, this level would be the next significant support to watch.
Moving Averages (EMA 13-34-89-200):
The price is currently trading above the shorter-term EMAs (13 & 34), indicating positive short-term momentum.
The longer-term EMAs (89 & 200) are likely transitioning from resistance to dynamic support, or showing signs of convergence, suggesting a potential shift in market structure. A 'Golden Cross' formation among these EMAs would be a powerful bullish signal.
Projected Price Action: The chart depicts a scenario where the price might retrace slightly towards the 3,317.738 support or even deeper to 3,302.939 before embarking on a strong upward rally, targeting resistance zones like 3,352.383 and further to 3,371.205.
🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations (Based on Provided Zones):
BUY ZONE: 3286 - 3284
SL: 3280
TP: 3290 - 3294 - 3298 - 3302 - 3306 - 3310 - 3315 - 3320
BUY SCALP: 3302 - 3300
SL: 3295
TP: 3306 - 3310 - 3314 - 3318 - 3322 - 3326 - 3330
SELL ZONE: 3353 - 3355
SL: 3360
TP: 3350 - 3346 - 3340 - 3335 - 3330 - 3320
SELL ZONE: 3372 - 3374
SL: 3378
TP: 3370 - 3366 - 3362 - 3358 - 3354 - 3350
⚠️ Key Events to Watch:
Further Speeches by Fed Officials: Any new comments on inflation, economic data, or the rate path will heavily influence market dynamics.
Global Geopolitical Developments: Ongoing tensions or new uncertainties can always bolster gold's safe-haven appeal.
Gold tested 3300, what next ?Yesterday's breakdown below the 3345-50 area created a failed low scenario, and gold tested psychological 3300 level before finding some support.
Right now we're seeing a bit of correction higher from yesterday's lows, but this is still unconfirmed territory. For intraday 3330-33 resistance zone .
If gold manages to push through with decent momentum, the next major hurdle zone is up at 3360- 3385. but as long as we're staying under 3330 and especially under 3360, any upward movement as a pullback rather than a true reversal .
For a genuine reversal to take hold,we need good bullish candle follow up today and gold needs to break above 3360- 3385 convincingly without revisiting yesterday's lows. and have to re claim 3450, which would signal a more significant shift in sentiment.
XAUUSD – Technical Pullback, Bearish Trend Remains DominantGold posted a mild recovery of around 650 pips on June 25, closing near 3,329.57 USD, marking a short-term rebound after a sharp decline. However, both technical structure and macroeconomic outlook suggest that the bearish trend remains in control.
On the H4 timeframe, XAUUSD has broken below a multi-week ascending channel and is now trading beneath the previous support trendline, which has turned into resistance. The price gap around 3,360–3,376 USD remains partially unfilled, making it a potential magnet for a short-term technical pullback.
The current price structure is forming a “lower high – lower low” pattern, confirming sustained bearish momentum. If price fails to reclaim the FVG zone near 3,376.5 USD, a decline toward the support area at 3,308—and possibly down to 3,270—remains likely. Upcoming U.S. Core PCE and Q1 GDP data will be key in determining gold’s next directional move.
GOLD – ONCE AGAIN AT A CROSSROADSThe gold scenario is becoming clearer: price is holding firmly at the key support zone around 3,300.900 and is gearing up to react to a series of “bombshell” U.S. data releases – including GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE. These two indicators are critical in shaping future Fed policy.
From a technical standpoint, buyers have halted the decline at a previous Fair Value Gap (FVG) – a zone that previously supported a bullish breakout. The recent rebound from this area opens up a potential move towards 3,368.700, where a new FVG exists and coincides with a long-term descending trendline. This is not only a technical target, but also a testing ground to assess whether the market has enough momentum to reverse the broader downtrend.
However, one must also acknowledge the risk: if upcoming U.S. data reinforces the Fed’s hawkish stance, gold is likely to face rejection at the trendline – and could once again slip below the 3,300 zone.
Macro Pressure or Opportunity to Accumulate?XAUUSD 24–28 June: Gold Slides to Buy Zone – Macro Pressure or Opportunity to Accumulate?
🔍 Macro Outlook – A Volatile Week for Gold Traders
Gold is navigating through a complex macroeconomic landscape this week, with multiple factors weighing in:
✅ Middle East Tensions Resurface
Israel has declared plans to retaliate against Iran following a ceasefire violation, increasing geopolitical risk. This situation historically supports safe-haven demand for gold when it escalates.
✅ US Economic Data May Soften Fed’s Tone
The U.S. economy is showing early signs of cooling:
Housing market data fell short of expectations.
PMI data indicates manufacturing and services are slowing.
If the Core PCE Index (set to release this week) confirms soft inflation, expectations for a Fed rate cut in September may solidify, putting pressure on the USD and boosting gold.
✅ China & India Are Stocking Up on Gold
India’s jewelry and central bank demand is on the rise ahead of budget season. Meanwhile, China continues to increase its gold reserves for the 19th consecutive month, offering underlying support to the price.
📉 Technical Analysis – Is the Correction Bottoming Out?
XAUUSD remains in a downward-sloping channel on the H1/H4 chart, but prices are approaching key support zones with strong historical demand.
EMA 34 – 89 – 200 still show downward momentum.
However, RSI divergence is forming on the lower timeframes, signaling potential bullish pressure.
A clear FVG (Fair Value Gap) around the $3367–$3369 zone presents a strong liquidity zone for reversal.
✅ Trading Plan for XAUUSD
🔵 BUY ZONE: $3278 – $3276
Stop Loss: $3270
Take Profits:
TP1: $3282
TP2: $3286
TP3: $3290
TP4: $3294
TP5: $3298
TP6: $3302
TP7: $3305
TP8: $3310
📌 Reason to Buy: Price is approaching the bottom of the descending channel with visible demand zone, enhanced by RSI divergence and macro geopolitical pressure favoring safe-haven flows.
🔴 SELL ZONE: $3367 – $3369
Stop Loss: $3375
Take Profits:
TP1: $3364
TP2: $3360
TP3: $3356
TP4: $3352
TP5: $3348
TP6: $3344
TP7: $3340
TP8: $3330
TP9: $3320
📌 Reason to Sell: This is a key FVG resistance area where sellers have previously stepped in aggressively. If price retests without momentum, it's likely to reject back toward support.
📎 Summary for Indian Traders
This week’s gold strategy is a balance between short-term technical plays and long-term macro shifts. Keep your eyes on PCE data, USD movement, and any flare-up in Middle East tensions. Each of these could serve as catalysts for either a bounce or continuation.
Gold Slips Sharply Ahead of Key US DataGold (XAUUSD) kicked off the week with a steep decline, currently hovering around $3,345 — down over 200 pips from the session’s open. This move unfolds just ahead of a series of major US economic releases, including PMI figures, Q1 GDP, and most importantly, the Core PCE Index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Markets are anticipating that Core PCE will remain elevated, reinforcing the case for prolonged high interest rates, which in turn adds pressure on safe-haven assets like gold.
From a technical perspective, the short-term chart has just formed a price GAP. If buyers capitalize on this setup, there’s a potential opportunity to target a gap fill. However, bearish pressure remains strong. If any recovery fails to break above the $3,389 resistance zone, traders should consider sticking with the prevailing downtrend.
Wishing you a successful trading day ahead!
XAU/USD Double Bottom Breakout Bullish Momentum Incoming!🔄 XAU/USD Double Bottom Breakout 💥 | 🚀 Bullish Momentum Incoming!
Analysis:
🟡 Double Bottom Pattern: Two clear lows have formed around the $3,340 support, signaling a potential reversal.
🟦 Accumulation Zone: The price consolidated in a range, indicating strong buying interest before the breakout.
🟣 Bullish Momentum: Recent aggressive bullish candles show strong buying pressure.
📈 Breakout & Retest Zone: If the price holds above $3,370, a bullish continuation toward $3,409 and possibly $3,445 is expected.
🧭 Target Area: Marked with a blue box, the upside potential is clearly projected.
Conclusion:
A successful retest of the breakout level may lead to a strong bullish run. Keep an eye on $3,370 as the pivot zone. 🎯
XAUUSD –Bounces from support, watching PMI & Powell for breakoutGold is recovering from the 3,357 zone – the lower boundary of the ascending channel on the H4 chart, with the FVG area around 3,365–3,375 acting as near-term support. The higher-lows structure remains intact, indicating the medium-term uptrend is still in play.
On the news front, the US Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline, and Fed Chair Powell is set to testify before Congress. If dovish signals emerge, gold could see a strong push higher.
Strategy: Consider buying around 3,357–3,365 if confirmation appears, targeting 3,443.
Do you think gold has the momentum to break through this resistance zone?
Learn Institutional Option Trading Part-1Risk and Return in Indian Investments:
Stock Market: High risk, high reward.
Mutual Funds: Moderate risk.
Fixed Deposits and Government Bonds: Low risk, lower returns.
Gold: Medium risk, often used as a hedge.
Factors Influencing Investment Choices:
Risk Appetite
Investment Horizon
Tax Benefits
Liquidity
Learn Institutional Option Trading Part-6Mutual Funds in India:
Mutual funds pool money from multiple investors and invest in a diversified portfolio.
Types:
Equity Mutual Funds
Debt Mutual Funds
Hybrid Funds
Index Funds & ETFs
Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) is a popular method to invest monthly with discipline.
Government Schemes:
PPF (Public Provident Fund)
NSC (National Savings Certificate)
EPF (Employees Provident Fund)
These are safe, tax-efficient, and suitable for conservative investors.
Learn Institutional Option Trading Part-5Stock Market Investing:
Stock investing involves buying shares of publicly traded companies listed on NSE or BSE.
Why Indians Invest in Stocks:
Potential for higher returns.
Dividend income.
Portfolio diversification.
Approaches to Investing:
Fundamental Analysis: Based on financial health, growth potential, and management quality.
Technical Analysis: Based on price patterns, volumes, and charts.
Long-Term Investing: Holding stocks for years to build wealth.
Short-Term Trading: Buying and selling stocks within days or weeks.
Learn Institutional Option Trading Part-4Recent Growth of Options in India:
Retail participation has surged.
Weekly expiry options (especially on Bank Nifty) have become extremely popular.
SEBI introduced lot size and margin regulations to control excessive speculation.
Investing in India
What is Investing?
Investing means allocating money into assets like stocks, mutual funds, bonds, gold, or real estate to earn returns over time.
Major Investment Options in India:
Equities (Shares)
Mutual Funds
Fixed Deposits
Public Provident Fund (PPF)
Gold (Physical and Digital)
Real Estate
Bonds and Debentures
Learn Institutional Option Trading Part-2Option Greeks in India:
Delta: Measures sensitivity to price changes.
Theta: Measures time decay.
Vega: Measures sensitivity to volatility.
Gamma: Measures change in Delta.
Indian traders use these Greeks to manage risk and optimize strategies.
Risks in Indian Option Trading:
Premium Decay: Loss in value as expiry approaches.
High Volatility: Can cause sudden losses.
Liquidity Risk: Some options have low trading volume.
Complexity: Requires deep market knowledge.
Learn Institutional Option Trading Part-10Popular Option Strategies in India:
Buying Call Options: Profit when the market rises.
Buying Put Options: Profit when the market falls.
Covered Call: Holding a stock and selling a call option to earn premiums.
Protective Put: Buying a put option to safeguard stock holdings.
Iron Condor: Earning from a range-bound market using multiple options.
Straddle and Strangle: Benefiting from high volatility.
Learn Institutional Option Trading Part-3In India, options are traded primarily on:
NSE (National Stock Exchange)
BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange)
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) regulates the derivatives market and ensures fair practices.
Why is Option Trading Popular in India?
Leverage: Traders can control large positions with small capital.
Hedging: Investors use options to protect their portfolios from market fluctuations.
Income Generation: Strategies like covered calls can provide regular income.
Speculation: Traders can bet on price movements with limited risk.
Learn Advanced Institutional TradingOption trading is a part of the derivatives market where investors buy and sell contracts known as options. These contracts derive their value from an underlying asset, which can be a stock, index, commodity, or currency.
In India, the most commonly traded options are based on Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, and stocks like Reliance, TCS, Infosys, etc.
Options give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price (strike price) before or on the expiry date.
Types of Options:
Call Option: Gives the buyer the right to buy the underlying asset.
Put Option: Gives the buyer the right to sell the underlying asset.
Option TradingIndia’s financial markets are rapidly evolving, and the participation of retail investors, institutions, and foreign players has significantly increased over the past two decades. Among various investment avenues, option trading, equity investing, and gold trading have become the most prominent ways of wealth creation and hedging against risks. Each of these segments has its unique importance, strategies, and regulatory frameworks in India.
This guide will help you understand the core concepts, market structure, strategies, and risks associated with Indian Option Trading, Equity Investing, and Gold Trading in a simple and practical manner.






















