MCX
MCX Crude Oil Elliott Wave Cycles Point More Upside
Price had made extreme low at 795 on 20 Apr '20.
It had started a quick recovery after an inviolable bottom-out. Due to bearish sentiments and no evidence of the verified bottom, It had constructed 2nd wave correction. The second wave retraced 38.2% of wave 1, which indicates a sturdy bull trend is ahead!
The acceleration phase lasted for 246 days and, the Fibonacci extension of wave 3 was 161.8% of the wave.
The public participation increased when the price had broken up the high of the first wave. It has the signal for bulls that crude was likely to make a new high.
After the acceleration phase, the price has corrected the bull phase with a double zigzag. It had retraced 38.2% of wave 3.
This correction was sharp in comparison with 2nd wave.
According to the above chart,
Wave 2 has taken 89 trading sessions to correct wave 1.
Wave 4 has taken 45 trading sessions to correct wave 3.
Wave 4 was a surprising disappointment for the bull traders.
Here, wave 3 is not a power extended because it hadn't moved across wave 1.618% of wave 1.
According to the Elliott wave principle, commodities are more often extending at the 5th wave.
Currently, the price has made a new high of 6428 .
Price has entered the corrective phase.
It is constructing the 4th sub-wave of the impulsive wave ((5)).
There are two possibilities,
1. If the price breaks the parallel channel, we can expect 50% to 61.8% retracement for wave 4.
Be aware of the fake breakout!
Remember, entry is also not possible without an exact reversal signal.
Caution: Wave 4 can never overlap the starting point of wave 1.
2. Price is on the control line of the base channel.
The safe trader can enter the buying position when price breaks the wave B.
Be connected with me to get intraday updates.
MCX Crude OilCrude Oil is running in channel since septmber, we many time initiated purchases near support lines but avoided short selling as Crude is in Bull cycle. We suggested you to buy near 6200 on 22nd Oct for a target of Rs 6500 which you may see tomorrow.
In a few days crude may give another signal either for long or short position.
We may soon see a trend reversal signal in crude oil. Stay connected with us for more updates.
Simple Positional Trade Setup | MCX | short-mid termNSE:MCX
Observations:
1) On Daily time frame, we can see now it is back to the level range which was earlier working as resistance and it was breakout level.
Now it has come to test this and if it sustain and gets support then this range will work as support level.
We can see good bounce back and the bullish up move can re-start again.
Please refer below chart : 1day Time Frame.
2) On Daily Time frame again, if we apply FIB RETRACEMENT levels then we can see that it is resting just above the 61.80% level range.
There are chances that the down trend will reverse now and the up trend will continue as generally at this 61.80% most of the time retracement of uptrend gets over.
Please refer below chart : 1day Time Frame.
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Positional Trade Setup
1 : One can take long position from CMP with SL of 1750 and target of all above levels.
2 : If one wants to take safe position then one can take position after it gives sustainable breakout of 1855 level. SL will be 1800 and all above levels will be targets.
3 : One can take short position if it give breakdown of 1750 level with SL of 1790 level and target of 1696 and 1650.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
Note: Trade with Strict SL. It may or may not hit all the levels.
Long MCX SILVERSILVER was trading under the Resistance trendline since mid May (shown in black in chart), but today it gave a breakthrough opening in the morning on MCX.
If it closes above 63800, then we can make a long position in current contract for a major profit.
LOGN SILVER @ 64800.
Silver has a major resistance at ₹ 65800, if it gives a closing above this level, then we can expect an upper movement of 5000-6000 in silver.