"BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL.” Subject :
During this period, I view the market downturn as an opportunity to acquire quality stocks at lower valuations for long-term investment. As mentioned above, I am particularly interested in key levels for potential entry points. I wanted to share these insights with all of you, hoping you find them helpful. Thank you, everyone!🙏🏻
The recent downturn in both Indian and global stock markets can be attributed to several
key factors:
1. Monetary Policy Shifts: The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decision to reduce the number of projected interest rate cuts for 2025 has heightened investor concerns.
2. Rising Treasury Yields: A significant selloff in long-dated U.S. government debt has pushed 10- and 30-year Treasury yields to their highest levels in nearly seven months. This trend poses a threat to stock valuations, as higher yields make risk-free government debt more attractive compared to equities.
3. Geopolitical Concerns: The potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and his proposed economic policies, have raised fears of increased inflation and global trade tensions. These uncertainties contribute to market instability.
* Escalating conflicts in regions such as the Middle East have increased market volatility and investor uncertainty.
4. Foreign Investor Behavior: In India, heavy selling by foreign institutional investors has exerted downward pressure on markets. This trend is influenced by global monetary policies and a reduced appetite for risk amid prevailing uncertainties.
5. Sector-Specific Declines: Sectors such as financials and information technology have experienced notable losses, further dragging down market indices.
These combined factors have led to a bearish trend in both Indian and international stock markets in recent weeks.
About Reliance industries limited 📉:
1. Weak Performance in the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) Segment: RIL's O2C business, a significant revenue contributor, has faced challenges due to shrinking margins amid global oversupply. In the second quarter of FY25, the company reported a 5% decline in net profit, largely attributed to poor performance in its oil refining and petrochemical business. This segment was significantly impacted by cheap Russian crude oil flooding the market, pushing product margins lower.
2. Delays in IPOs of Jio and Retail.
3. Slowing Growth in the Retail Business: RIL's retail division has encountered slower growth, influenced by factors such as rising real estate costs and increased.
4. Broader Market Trends and Investor Behavior.
#valueinvesting. #indianstockmarket. #Reliance
Mindset
XAUUSD is looking for DOWN.Gold is seeking for Big Players to short and to trap buyers from here. Retailers are trying to push gold above 1980 and even above 2000 but they(MM) have some other plans. Retailers did not come out from the mindset of buying, but there is still a chance for buyers if war escalates.
Fundamentally and Technically gold is down.
Stay updated!!
Trading Volatility: Making Money When Markets Get WildVolatility means how much an asset's price changes over time. Some traders see it as a risk, but experienced traders know it can also bring chances to make money. In this article, we'll explore trading volatility, explain key ideas, and offer practical tips for profiting in unpredictable markets.
Understanding Volatility: What It Is Volatility is how much an asset's price moves up and down. High volatility means big price swings, while low volatility means steadier prices. Volatility trading is not for everyone. It is a risky activity that requires a deep understanding of the markets and a sound risk management strategy. Traders who are new to the markets or who do not have a high risk tolerance should avoid volatility trading.
Why Volatility Matters
Volatility matters for a few reasons:
Profit opportunities: Prices can move quickly, creating chances to buy low and sell high, or vice versa
Risk management: Having a trading plan and sticking to it is essential for risk management. A trading plan should outline your entry and exit criteria, as well as your risk management strategy. For example, you should decide how much money you are willing to risk on each trade and how you will manage your losses.
Timing is everything: Volatile markets can provide good entry and exit points for traders. It is important to be aware of market conditions so you can take advantage of these opportunities.
Practical Tips for Trading Volatility
Use Volatility Indicators: Watch indicators like the Average True Range (ATR) or the Volatility Index (VIX). They help you spot when markets are wild and when it's best to trade.
* Average True Range (ATR): ATR measures the average price range over a specified period, giving traders insights into the asset's volatility. When ATR values spike, it indicates heightened market volatility, signalling potential trading opportunities.
* Volatility Index (VIX): Often referred to as the "fear gauge," VIX gauges market sentiment by measuring the expected volatility in the S&P 500. High VIX levels typically correspond to increased market turbulence.
Volatility indicators can be used to identify trading opportunities in a number of ways. For example, the ATR can be used to set stop-loss orders at a distance that is appropriate for the asset's volatility. The VIX can be used to identify periods of high volatility, which may offer more trading opportunities.
Embrace Options Trading: Options are contracts that let you buy or sell assets at specific prices by certain dates. They can be useful in turbulent markets. Strategies like straddles or strangles can help you profit from big price moves, no matter the direction.
*Straddles :These are versatile options strategies that can be employed during volatile periods. A straddle involves buying both a call and a put option with the same strike price and expiration date. It profits from significant price movements in either direction.
*Strangles: A strangle is similar but involves buying call and put options with different strike prices, allowing traders to capitalise on volatility without committing to a specific price direction.
Options trading can be a complex and expensive way to trade volatility. However, it can also be a very effective way to profit from big price moves. Traders who are considering using options to trade volatility should make sure they understand the risks involved.
Set Stop-Loss Orders: In wild markets, set stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Decide how much risk you can handle and set stop levels accordingly.
Diversify Your Portfolio: Spread your investments across different assets. This reduces the impact of volatility on your overall portfolio. Choose assets that don't move in sync with each other.
Challenges of Trading Volatility
Trading in volatile markets presents unique challenges:
Quick Thinking: Traders must make decisions swiftly as market conditions can change rapidly. This requires adaptability and staying informed.
Emotional Discipline: Emotions can run high in turbulent markets. Maintaining emotional discipline is crucial to avoid impulsive decisions driven by fear or greed.
Additional Tips for Managing Risk in Volatile Markets
Position Sizing: Determine the size of your trades based on your risk tolerance and the specific volatility of the asset. Smaller positions can help limit potential losses.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Always assess the potential reward against the risk before entering a trade. A favourable risk-reward ratio is essential for long-term success.
Trading Psychology: Developing a robust trading mindset is key. Stick to your trading plan, maintain discipline, and avoid overtrading.
Examples of Trading Volatility
Let's look at some examples:
Volatile Currency Pair: Imagine you're trading the EUR/USD currency pair during a time of uncertainty. The ATR indicator shows high volatility. To profit from this, you enter a short-term trade, taking advantage of rapid price swings.
Stock Earnings Announcement: You're trading a tech stock known for big price moves during earnings reports. Before the report, you buy options using a straddle strategy. This lets you profit from significant price moves, whether up or down, after the earnings news.
Final thought : Trading in volatile markets can be both rewarding and challenging. Understanding volatility, using helpful indicators, and managing risk are key to making money when markets get wild. Always remember that trading involves risks, so it's essential to have a solid plan and stay disciplined in unpredictable conditions.
The most common mistakes traders make and how to avoid themWhen it comes to investing, trading can be a highly lucrative and exciting way to potentially earn profits. However, it's not without its challenges. One of the biggest challenges for traders is avoiding common mistakes that can lead to significant financial losses. In this article, we'll discuss the most common mistakes traders make and provide actionable tips on how to avoid them.
1. Lack of Research and Preparation:
One of the most crucial aspects of successful trading is research and preparation. Unfortunately, many traders overlook this crucial step in their haste to start trading. Without proper research and preparation, traders may miss critical market trends or overlook important factors that can impact their trades.
To avoid this mistake, it's essential to do thorough research and preparation before placing any trades. This includes conducting fundamental and technical analysis of the market, evaluating economic data, and developing a trading strategy based on your research. By doing so, traders can better understand market conditions and make informed decisions about their trades.
2. Emotions and Impulsivity:
Another common mistake traders make is allowing their emotions to impact their trading decisions. When traders become emotionally attached to their trades, they may make impulsive decisions based on fear, greed, or other emotions. These decisions can lead to poor trading results, including significant financial losses.
To avoid the pitfalls of emotions and impulsivity in trading, it's essential to remain objective and rational when making trading decisions. Traders should stick to their trading plan and avoid deviating from it based on emotions. Additionally, traders can use tools like stop-loss orders to automatically close positions if the market moves against them.
3. Overtrading:
Overtrading is a common mistake that many traders make, and it can have devastating consequences. Overtrading occurs when traders place too many trades in a short period, usually due to a desire to make up for previous losses or to chase profits. This can lead to significant financial losses and may result in traders ignoring their trading strategy.
To avoid overtrading, traders must be disciplined and patient in their trading approach. They should stick to their trading plan and avoid making impulsive trades based on emotions. Additionally, traders should set realistic trading goals and avoid chasing unrealistic profits.
4. Lack of Risk Management:
Risk management is a critical component of successful trading, yet many traders overlook this aspect. Traders who do not implement an effective risk management strategy are more likely to experience significant losses in the event of adverse market movements.
To avoid the pitfalls of poor risk management, traders should assess their risk tolerance and develop a risk management strategy that aligns with their risk tolerance. This may include implementing stop-loss orders, using position sizing techniques, and diversifying their portfolio.
5. Focusing on Short-Term Profits:
Traders who focus solely on short-term profits often make the mistake of ignoring long-term market trends and opportunities. This can lead to missed opportunities for profitable trades and may result in traders making impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements.
To avoid this mistake, traders should adopt a long-term perspective in their trading approach. They should focus on market trends and opportunities that align with their long-term trading goals and avoid being swayed by short-term market movements.
6. Not Having a Trading Plan:
Traders who do not have a trading plan are more likely to make impulsive trading decisions and may overlook critical market trends and opportunities. A trading plan outlines a trader's approach to the market and includes details on their trading strategy, risk management, and trading goals.
To avoid this mistake, traders should develop a comprehensive trading plan that aligns with their trading goals and risk tolerance. They should review and update their trading plan regularly to reflect changes in the market or their trading objectives.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, avoiding common trading mistakes is essential to successful trading. By doing proper research and preparation, managing emotions and impulsivity, implementing an effective risk management strategy, focusing on long-term profits, and developing a comprehensive trading plan, traders can make informed decisions that lead to profitable trades. Trading is a complex and challenging endeavor, but with discipline, patience, and a commitment to continuous learning and improvement, traders can achieve success in the markets.
Trading Mindset - Tips for TradersTrading is an art that requires a strong mindset. Having the right mindset is essential for success in trading. The right mindset can help you avoid making emotional decisions, stick to your trading plan, and ultimately achieve your trading goals. In this blog post, we will discuss the importance of having the right trading mindset and how you can develop one.
The Importance of a Trading Mindset:
A trading mindset is the mental attitude you have towards trading. It is your overall attitude, beliefs, and emotions towards trading. Having the right mindset is important for several reasons:
1. Avoiding Emotional Decisions: Emotions can cloud your judgment and cause you to make impulsive decisions that can lead to losses. Having the right trading mindset can help you avoid emotional decisions.
2. Sticking to Your Plan: Having the right mindset can help you stick to your trading plan, even when the market is volatile or when you are experiencing a losing streak.
3. Improving Discipline: Trading requires discipline, and having the right mindset can help you develop discipline and stick to your trading rules.
4. Achieving Your Goals: Having the right mindset can help you achieve your trading goals by keeping you focused and motivated.
Developing a Trading Mindset:
Developing the right trading mindset is not easy, but it is possible. Here are some tips to help you develop the right mindset for trading:
1. Set Realistic Expectations: Set realistic expectations for yourself and your trading. Understand that trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme, and it takes time and effort to become successful.
2. Focus on the Process: Focus on the process of trading rather than the outcome. Focus on following your trading plan, managing risk, and improving your skills.
3. Accept Losses: Accept that losses are a part of trading and learn from them. Do not dwell on losses, but use them as an opportunity to improve your trading skills.
4. Practice Patience: Trading requires patience. Learn to be patient and wait for the right opportunities to enter and exit the market.
5. Manage Emotions: Manage your emotions while trading. Do not let fear, greed, or other emotions cloud your judgment.
6. Maintain a Positive Attitude: Maintaining a positive attitude is essential for success in trading. Believe in yourself and your abilities, and maintain a positive outlook, even during challenging times.
In conclusion, having the right trading mindset is essential for success in trading. It can help you avoid emotional decisions, stick to your trading plan, and ultimately achieve your trading goals. Developing the right mindset takes time and effort, but it is possible. Set realistic expectations, focus on the process, accept losses, practice patience, manage emotions, and maintain a positive attitude. With the right mindset, you can become a successful trader.
TRADING A GAME OF PROBABILITYTRADING A GAME OF PROBABILITY
We know that market has random movements; the pattern behaved in the past cannot behave exactly the same next time so in a random market environment there are so many external factors that can affect the outcome of the trade, a trader cannot know all those factors. What you know is your EDGE (your strategy) which is certain in an uncertain market environment, If your edge has a positive outcome you can produce a consistent result in a random environment.
HOW TO PRODUCE CONSISTENT RESULT IN A RANDOM ENVIRONMENT
An event that has a probable outcome can produce consistent results if you have the odds in your favor and there is a large enough sample size. (a series of trades generated by your edge). You have to think in probabilities and take every single trade which meets the criteria of your system (your edge); you don’t know the outcome of any trade before taking the trades (you don’t know which trade is going to be a winner or loser) unless you know a way to travel in time so, you cannot select between the trades you have to play all.
Every event is independent of the previous one. If your last 2 trades are loser doesn’t mean next will also be a loser, because markets are random and you can make consistent result if you have odds in your favor.
Why Stop Loss Is Important ?? EXPLANATION : This is a 15 min time frame chart of EURGBP . It has formed Descending triangle pattern , after seeing this formation I take it early entry and Sl kissed me . Price moves in opposite direction of my Analysis , Now what can I do ?? Respect your SL , No revenge trading , No over trading , Find another opportunity , No gambling . This all things keep in your mind , If you want to be successful trader . Psychology matter :)
Lesson : Trade with confirmation
Ideal entry : Breakout & Retest , when support become resistance
DABUR: Swing TradeDABUR : SWING Pick!
Method :
Simple Channel Breakout.
The bottom line is called the Basic Uptrend line & the upper secondary line is called the Channel line.
The failure to reach the bottom end of the channel is often an early warning that the upper line will be broken, usually indicates a strengthening trend.
Risk Management :
Risk only 2% of your trading capital.
Buy 30% of your position at CMP and wait for the pullback, if the price respects the level of 590 then execute your 70% position.
Mindset:
Note= Trade with probabilistic mindset, no matter how much analysis you do there is always a 50-50% chance.
Our main objective is to '' Cut your losses short and let your profits run.''
Remember to be profitable you don’t have to be right every time,
you just have to be right big and wrong small .