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MSCI

30th Nov ’23 - Good and Volatile Monthly Expiry Nifty PostMortemNifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I still continue to hold on to my long position just that I added some protection with 20000 PE buy in the last minutes of trade today. Not because I wish to change the status to neutral, but to offset the OTM PEs shorted today. Most of them were full of air today as the movement would have spiked up its implied volatility. ATH is 20222 and we are just 126 points away, there are no support/resistance zones in between too.” 5mts chart link - click here The 20000 PE which was bought as a hedge for the OTM short positions was in action today. Even though I exited it prematurely, It went from Rs11 to Rs39 today. See the encircled region in the chart - 09.40 to 10.05. The steam was let off by then and we quickly gained back ground. Nifty50 was trading below water, mainly due to the pressure from BankNifty. But by 13.40 - Nifty made its intentions clear to go green. The real push came between 14.15 and close wherein Nifty gained 101pts ~ 0.5% to end the day with credible gains of 36pts. Meanwhile do not get swayed away by the FIIs buy number today - as it may be due to the MSCI inflows on the top largecaps. 1hr chart link - click here On the 1hr TF, 20015 was today’s stop and reversal level. The hourly candle seemed pretty strong, but some credibility has to be given to this new support level. I wish to continue with my bullish stance, the upper target will be the ATH and the lower target will be the new support of 20015.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 05 MAY 2023Finally some volatility to keep the bears alive. This entire week the technical analysis was saying keep buying. See how a fundamental change can alter the sentiment. "MSCI tweaks spook HDFC twins, merged entity may see $150-200 million outflows" The MSCI news hit just before the start of the day and NSE:HDFCBANK and HDFC were down 5% in pre-open. The biggest loser was NSE:CNXFINANCE index compared to NSE:BANKNIFTY & NSE:NIFTY during the preopen session. Even after such bad news the other banks did hold banknifty up till 12.55 after which the banks had a near free fall. The open was gap down, but it recovered very neatly till 10.20, there was volatility visible in CE options premium, but PE premiums were still under control. Obviously the near ATMs had huge spikes as the gapdown itself was an uncertainty in itself. The pattern formed after 10.20 was a perfect 2 legged down-fall. The 2nd leg had a depth of 1.6% ~ 695pts. Banknifty was holding its ground near the 43253 support at the start as well as from 11.05 to 12.55. In this period of 2 hours the options premiums started decaying.  Right after the 1pm move there was a broad-based selling on other banks as well. And what it did was to ensure banknifty's fall was matching the Finnifty's percentage drop. Its true that both of them fell exactly 2.34% today. However the HDFC which fell 5.58% is just present in Finnifty. Somehow to the naked eye I am not convinced how banknifty had an equivalent fall as finnifty. The only positive contributor to finnifty was SBILIFE which has a small weightage. Seems like IndusInd & Federal bank which has weightages of 5.4% and 1% would have made the difference. I am still not convinced :( --- 15mts TF is showing banknifty has broken 2 supports 43253, 43012 today and was stopped at 42576 support. This is the first time in many sessions that we had a decent retracement. Since its fundamental/news driven, the technical analysis wont really work here.  --- 1hr shows the top formation quite clearly. The nearest support of 42576 if broken will open up a free-fall gap of 952pts till the next decent support at 41624. If that happens we can start taking bearish trades. --- Nifty50 chart pattern is not bearish even after the blip today. The nearest support is at 17976 and the next support is 3% lower at 17429. Interestingly this 3% gap between 2 SR zone is similar to banknifty as well showing a vulnerability. If the indices can hold its ground very well we will not have a snowballing effect.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram