Neo Wave
Triangle ending soon.Time to get long for the last pushwe are in wave E of triangle(marked in red)which in itself is making a neutral triangle sort of pattern(marked in yellow).In this triangle we are done with wave a,b,c and currently wave d is going on.This wave d in yellow is also sub divided in abcde(in green) there by forming triangle.
Looking at the internal count of wave D(yellow) it seems like it is also forming triangle and currently we are only left with leg E of wave D(in yellow).
Reason for wave E to end at 38550-60 zone.
1)Cloud support.(not shown here)
2)61% wave A extention target for wave E of triangle at 38559
3)50% retracement of previous up swing(wave c in yellow) at 38557
4)Time cycle low period nearing,at 3.15 pm today.
Once we get fall of wave e (in green)we need price to give us reversal candle and clearing wave d(in green) top and closing above it.That would mark end of wave d in yellow degree which will be followed wave e of yellow degree to complete wave e of red degree.
Hence stop-loss for the trade after seeing above mentioned trade setup criteria getting ful-filled will be 38550 and target would be 39500-39800, entry only above 38900.Incase 38550 is broken then pattern will take diametric form in which case one can see wave F and wave G,but i am not discribing that scenario as triangle is the preferred count.
Disclaimer:This are just my views on the index,no position should be build or exited on its basis.Posting this just for my future reference.
NIFTY:Triangle formation,Long setup for wave E moveSeems like NIFTY is making either triangle or diametric pattern.
So far we are in wave D of triangle or diametric pattern and we have seen range getting squeezed in each leg(a typical symmetrical triangle characteristics).
Going ahead we can see wave E unfolding on the the upside post which we can finalize if the pattern is triangle or diametric depending upon wave E's magnitude.
Ideally for Symmetrical Triangle wave B low's of 16833 should be breached in this on going fall.On the upside if price crosses 17400 and gives close above it,then it would confirm end of wave D.
On 25th Jan we did show nifty bouncing from 16836 low's and hence that low can act as a stop-loss for long's.As today we have seen gap down one should wait for hourly close above today's high for initiating long position which is coming at 17073.This is for digressive traders.
For safe bet,one should wait for 17400 to broken on the upside.
Risk-reward is only 1:1.4 but if index manages to cross 17400 then it can move up till 18000 levels,which would then improve RR ratio,hence sizing at should be done accordingly.
View negated if 16833 is broken.
Disclaimer:This are just my views on nifty no position should be build or exited on its basis.
Bank Nifty:Elliot wave + Time cycle.Attaching 30 mins chart of Bank Nifty.
It seems like Bank nifty is following 21 candles cycle on 30 minutes chart as it has captured most of the low's formed since 30-12-2021 (12:15 P.M. on wards).As per this cycle next low is due at 1.45 P.M. today.
On wave front,i think it is either making a diametric pattern or an triangle,as wave B took less time then wave A in the labels shown from 25-01-2022 9:15 A.M. on wards.
Scenario-1)Diametric
As per diametric patterns guidelines, wave E target is coming at 39350.(Few days back we also had a algo trade in bank nifty printing 39300 high).A rejection at 39300-350 level along with faster retracement of previous swing low would validate end of wave E of diametric pattern.
Scenario-2)Triangle
As per triangle pattern,wave E could be the last raising move post which we can see decent down move,which can take prices again back to 38500 levels and even beyond.As 38840 is a previous price action zone acting as rasistance ,for entire rise to be an triangle wave E can end at around same levels(so far we have done high of 38800 and have pulled back)but the internal structure is not yet complete hence one more push towards 38800 cant be ruled out.A rejection again at 38800 along with faster retracement of previous swing low level would validate triangle scenario.
Personally i am preferring scenario 1,as today on the back of event prices can show unexpected moves.Hence i would wait short trade setup at or around 39350 level for riding wave F of diametric pattern target for which is coming at 38500
Disclaimer:This are just my views,no position should be build or exited on its basis.Posting this just for my future reference.