HDFC bank - What next ?Today, HDFC Bank is down by more than 4% due to some news of target reduction.
As HDFC Bank is a market mover, a big fall in HDFC bank can trigger a correction in broader Indian markets, especially banking sectors.
However, news based moves are mostly a trap for retail investors.
Weekly TF analysis of HDFC bank shows formation of ascending triangle pattern since 2020. The immediate support below the trendline for HDFC bank is 1520 which can be best buy levels.
Lets wait and watch what is unfolding in HDFC bank.
Newsbackground
This Star Share Is Looking BearishFrom last few trading sessions we are witnessing a big upside rally in broad market.
Nifty 50 from low, made on 22 june recovered +7.5%.
It is surprising that Nifty's most treatable player not recovered more than 3 % from recent lows.
On technical side
1) The inverted flag pattern is showing a short term down trend,
2) Prices are trading below 200 day moving average,
3) Reliance is not participating with broad market bull rally
4) Bad news (described below)
5) The support level it is holding is very crucial for trend change in medium term.
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Big Bad News
We have seen that how crude oil market of india got a boot by deregulation of prices. But suddenly after few days Govt. Increased taxes on diesel and petrol export significantly to curb the windfall gains of oil producing and refinery companies.
- The government imposed a Rs 6 per litre tax on exports of Petrol and Rs 13 per litre on exports of Diesel.
- The government also imposed Rs 23,230 per tonne tax on domestic crude oil to take away windfall gains accruing to producers.
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Now what do you think who will impact the most from this modi govt. move. ?
Reliance yes your guess was correct because, reliace jamnagar two refineries were the top refineries of India with refining capacity of more than 35 MT.
- Reliance Jamnagar plant can process 1.36 million barrels of crude a day from two refineries, reliance surpassed all the refineries in the year of 2002 – 2003 in terms of volume processing and become biggest Indian Refiner.
- Reliance export 80% of its output from Jamnagar refineries.
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Reliance was reaping the inflated prices of crude products. This move can decrease the margins significantly.
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NOTE : Quarterly results are scheduled this friday, so keenly watch the price movement and OI data.
HAL ready for a cup and handle breakout1. Buy or Sell at your own risk
2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss
3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price)
4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or close below daily supertrend (for short term traders) or close below weekly supertrend (for long term investors)
5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be
a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less
b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume
c. Exhaustion gaps
d. Heavy daily volume without further upside
e. Largest one day price drop
After a consolidation since September 2021 (if we look at the weekly charts then we can see that the consolidation has been going on since August 2020), NSE:HAL is going to break out from a cup and handle pattern. Volume is also increasing. If the stock breaks out above Rs.1500 then it will be a good buy with the stop just below Rs.1400.
Other fundamentals:
1. India will 'possibly' not import any defence items going forward: Defence Ministry official
2. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited informed that in a major boost to Atmanirbhar Bharat Mission, as per Press Information Bureau, CCS has approved the procurement of 15 Light Combat Helicopters (LCH) Limited Series Production (for Indian Air Force 10 and Indian Army 5) from the Company.
3. Average Roe for last 3 and 5 years more than 15%
4. Borrowings came down from nearly 6000 crores in March 2020 to 6 crores in September 2021
5. Dividend yield of 2.69% (consistent dividend payer since 2016)
6. Debt to equity at 0.00 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 106 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 1.65 (greater than 1.5 is good).
7. FII stake increased from 0.30% in December 2020 to 3.15% in December 2021.
Linde India Breakout1. Buy or Sell at your own risk
2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss
3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price)
4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or close below daily supertrend (for short term traders) or close below weekly supertrend (for long term investors)
After GOI's green H2 policy announcement NSE:LINDEINDIA gave a high-volume breakout after a consolidation of almost 6 months. It's a buy at current price with a stop loss at or below Rs.2645. Quarterly results are due on Feb 24th. One can wait until the results are announced. It's a good opportunity as Linde is a pioneer in Blue Hydrogen plants.
20% Lower circuit and now again on a good level - Power of ADANII JUST LOVE WATCHING CHARTS DANCE THAT'S ALL :)
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HDFC BANK in BULL modeSTRONG BULLISH VIEW
Reasons:
NEWS
1. INR 50,000 crore fund raise via debt securities
2. Bank Deposits have risen 25% from a year ago
CHART
1. Ascending triangle (highlighted on chart) giving strong support
2. Evening Star (Bear Pattern) has formed at support clearly indicates the bearish pattern will fail, backed by bullish sentiments and news.
Trade Good for:
INTRADAY and SWING
Glenmark strong above 418. PS: I am a beginner. This is just my opinion. Only trade based on your analysis
-Glenmark announced the DCGI nod for selling of Fabiflu - Covid-19 med.
-Strong support between 390 and 400 (very strong at 394)
- Closed in its S/R zone of 408-415. If breakout above 418, can go till 432-437.
-Result on 26th June. Expected a positive result.
- If fall below 390, support placed at 380 and 370
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Auropharma , 20% up in a day now may be 20% down in a day !!!!Profit booking and trailing is the important concept of trading which people ignore's many time , if somebody is following the chart it was clearly a resistance at 615 levels ( marked blue ) , now their is a gap lets see if it feel's up the 500 levels, !!!!!
Trump on Twitter, undervalued euro and important dataTraditionally, financial markets could not relax mainly because of one person. It is all about US President Donald Trump. Yesterday, he said that if the head of Sino, Xi Jinping, does not meet with him at the G-20 summit, the United States will impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods. So, as we warned, you should not relax and calm down. Accordingly, buying gold and Japanese yen, especially at current prices, seems to us one of the best trading ideas today.
Well, about Trump, we cannot but pay attention to the next wave of verbal interventions on his part. This time, he said that "The Euro and other currencies are devalued against the dollar, putting the U.S. at a big disadvantage." Not that everyone rushed to buy euros after that, but Trump definitely sowed seeds of doubt.
Immediately, a whole series of major analysts burst out with forecasts in favor of euro growth. In particular, Deutsche Bank noted that the euro is undervalued by 7 against the dollar and should cost 1.20. And according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development model, the euro is generally undervalued by 22% (!).
Yesterday, unexpectedly, quite good data on the UK labor market appeared. Employment in April rose by 32K (with the forecast +4K), and the average salary showed growth above analysts' expectation 3.1% (with a forecast 3.0%). We have been waiting for much weaker statistics. Nevertheless, we consider the pound growth as an opportunity for its sales. Well, there are no reasons for the pound optimism. Brexit pauses until the new Prime Minister will be chosen this will happen no earlier than July. And it is not a fact that it will be a positive sign for the pound. So, you can re-open trade a little bit later in case of os stop-loss execution.
The main event of the day will be the inflation statistics publication from the United States. The output of data below forecasts or below 2% (the Feds target ), would be a pretty strong signal in favor of dollar sales. Recall, in a week the Fed’s decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the United States will be announced and it is very likely that the rate will be lowered this month. Perhaps even by 0.5%. Today's data will have an impact on it.
Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for the sales of the US dollar against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and sales of GBPUSD.