NFTY
SHORT NIFTY TRADE SETUP FOR THE 03.08.2020 *IGNORE THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS*
This week will be very important for the indexes as tomorrow the RBI will start its three-day meet which will end on August 6th . This will end up making the picture look murkier. The indexes are at a critical point. However, the Bank Nifty is looking in a worse state than the Nifty .
Coming to the Nifty , the index is holding its rising window support. I will maintain the same supports as earlier, which is 10,963 and 10,874. If this position goes against me slightly I will exit as the risk is high.
Nifty support at the crucial support level of 11085
-the index reversed from its new resistance created at 11300
-yesterday expiry shook out a lot of week hands in the market
-today we see the actual trend
-we need to see if the market fails to hold on to support or moves on and resumes uptrend
-the market will find it tough to cross above 11240 again
-on the downside, the market must not break below 11015 otherwise nifty might revers
NIFTY RESISTANCE FOR THE DAY
11158 -11240-11340
NIFTY SUPPORT FOR THE DAY
10964-11015-11085
!!PLEASE NOTE THE ABOVE INFORMATION IS FOR KNOWLEDGE ONLY!!
!!TRADE ACCORDING TO YOUR RISK PROFILE!!
!!SUGGEST OPTION TRADES NAVIGATE VOLATILITY!!
!!HAPPY TRADING!!
Short-Term view for NIFTY spot. Minor trend-line R 9491 - 9509
The over-consumption has been upper bound of value area, therefore chance to over-consumption at lower bound.
There is no overparticular resistance 9500+.
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339p GAP
This is " Common Gap " price is not going to break support line.
Previous minor resistance at 9405. Nifty is going to open nearby this resistance ( 100+ nearby ).
Support line price area support at 9241.
India VIXAlmost every year India VIX tends to test the lower end of its range and reverses sharply in JAN. A trigger for this usually is the Annual Budget (Vix rising as a lead up to the event). It appears that the same scenario might be repeated in 2020. However, this time we have a global trigger as well which could fuel the rise in VIX (as and when it happens) Gold & Silver breakout and USD/INR which is very close to a breakout above 70.40 (in this case it should be noted that US$ is so far fairly muted against major currencies).
We could initially see the Standard Deviation variation between Equity > Commodities / Currency expand. As a result, firstly the range will get broader, secondly price movement/reaction will be faster. Hence, option writing as Jan series gets into momentum might not be a safe hedge as it has appeared in NOV-DEC. Positional traders might get caught on the wrong side time and again as Swing traders are going to love the series