Nifty to Kick-Start the Year with a Pause!● A detailed examination of the daily chart reveals the emergence of an Inverted Cup and Handle pattern, suggesting a bearish outlook.
● However, the index is currently hovering above the critical support level of 23,500, while attempting to establish a foothold above the 200-period EMA, a key dynamic support.
● Furthermore, options data indicates a significant concentration of put writers at the 23,500 strike price, lending additional credence to the support zone.
● Given these technical and sentimental factors, we expect the index to remain in a consolidative phase over the next month, as market participants await a clear catalyst for direction.
Nifty50
Unlocking the Secrets of Divergence in Trading- A Complete GuideMastering Divergence: Real-Life Examples of Bullish and Bearish Divergence in UPL Ltd and Tata Motors
Divergence is an incredibly powerful tool in technical analysis that helps traders spot potential trend reversals. By comparing price action with momentum indicators like RSI, you can catch subtle signs of market shifts and make more informed trading decisions.
In this post, I’m sharing two real-life examples of bullish and bearish divergence to help you understand how this works and how you can use it to improve your trading.
1. Bullish Divergence Example: UPL Ltd
Here’s what happened:
Price Action: UPL Ltd made a lower low on the chart.
RSI Indicator: At the same time, RSI formed a higher low, creating a clear bullish divergence.
What does it mean?
Even though the price was dropping, the RSI hinted that momentum was picking up. This is often a clue that a reversal might be on the horizon.
Outcome:
Right after confirming the divergence, UPL Ltd saw a strong rally, rewarding traders who caught the signal early.
2. Bearish Divergence Example: Tata Motors
Here’s another case:
Price Action: Tata Motors was climbing, forming a higher high on the chart.
RSI Indicator: But the RSI didn’t agree—it created a lower high, signaling a bearish divergence.
What does it mean?
The rising price didn’t have the momentum to back it up. This imbalance often leads to a downward reversal.
Outcome:
As expected, Tata Motors experienced a bearish reversal soon after, validating the divergence and giving traders a great shorting opportunity.
Why Divergence Is a Must-Know for Traders
Divergence is so effective because it reveals hidden shifts in market momentum before they show up on price charts. Here’s why it’s worth paying attention to:
Early Signals: Divergences give you a head start by showing potential reversals before they happen.
Versatile Tool: You can use divergence with multiple indicators like MACD or Stochastic for extra confirmation.
Better Timing: Pairing divergence with support/resistance levels or trendlines helps you fine-tune your entries and exits.
How to Trade Divergence Like a Pro
Combine divergence signals with major support/resistance levels for stronger setups.
Always wait for confirmation—like a breakout or a reversal candlestick—before taking action
Use stop losses to protect your trades in case the divergence doesn’t play out.
Visual Examples on the Charts
Take a look at the attached chart showing UPL Ltd (Bullish Divergence) and Tata Motors (Bearish Divergence) side by side.
UPL Ltd: The price made a lower low, but RSI made a higher low, leading to a strong bullish rally.
Tata Motors: The price formed a higher high, but RSI made a lower high, resulting in a bearish reversal.
Your Turn!
Have you spotted any divergences in stocks you’re tracking? Let me know in the comments!
If you found this helpful, don’t forget to like and follow for more educational trading content.
Nifty50 - November 2024 viewIn my October view, I had mentioned that it is time to be cautious as Nifty was near an important zone of 26240-26270 and we have seen more than 2000 points fall since then.
FIIs have sold more than 1.3 lakh crore of equity in last 40 days.
Let's analyze what can be expected in this month. We have seen nearly 10% correction from ATH in Nifty50. 23900 is acting as a support currently which is also its 78.6 % fib extension.
On the downside:-
Below 23900, I am expecting at least 23300 which is near the trendline support.
On the upside:-
24300, 24800 & 25000 would act as a strong resistance.
Current view is sideways to bearish till 25000 is breached on weekly closing basis
Till then, market will remain on sell at high.
Nifty | Tuesday 24 Dec'24 | Trading Plan Nifty as mentioned in previous idea, is in C wave. Right now looks like have completed the w of C and in retracement. Two of the possible trade can be done as below:
1. Above the marked 23860, we can enter with target 1 of 23970 and target 2 of 24040 and further trailing with SL of 15 min intraday swing low.
2. Below the marked 23540, we can enter for short with target of 23350 and SL of 15 intraday swing high.
Disclaimer: I am not SEBI certified analyst and this not a buy/sell recommendation. It is only for educational and entertainment purposes.
The Week Ahead for Nifty: Trends and InsightsLast week, the Nifty index faced strong selling pressure, driven by various global economic factors.
◉ Current Scenario
● At present, the Nifty is trading near its 200 EMA, just above 23,500, a level with high put writer concentration, indicating potential support.
● Conversely, the 24,000 level will act as an immediate resistance due to the high number of Call contracts open at that position.
◉ Expected Market Movement
● This week is likely to be muted for the Nifty.
● If the index slips below 23,400, the next support level will be 23,000.
● A major upward move is expected only if the Nifty surpasses 24,800.
NIFTY50 Head & Shoulder Pattern in Weekly Charts₹₹Nifty50 making Head & Shoulder in Weekly Charts with Price range of 3000 points(23266-26277). If Chart Pattern play-out perfectly then Target price range will be 2500-3000 points till 20288 levels.
Nifty50 also have a gap on 20288 levels bcoz of Election Results of 4 States on Dec 3,2023 after that rally started. Now Nifty50 can fill this gap if Chart Pattern play-out perfectly.
I will wait for Nifty50 to break down 23266-22777 levels zone & closing below 22777 levels. If Nifty50 close below 22777 levels then Short Nifty50 for Targets of 22122, 21777, 21288, 20777 & 20288 with Stop Loss of 23444.
But this Pattern will fail above levels of 24555.
Most Important we have to carefully watch RELIANCE bcoz it's already at 52 week lows & At Parallel Channel Support in Monthly Charts. If Reliance also give breakdown of channel then it will be easy for Nifty50 to reach all targets. Similarly HDFC BANK at upper Resistance of Parallel Channel in Monthly Charts.
Nifty Index Futures: Key Technical Insights for December 2024The Nifty Index Futures chart highlights significant market developments, signaling potential shifts in momentum. Here’s a concise analysis:
Key Highlights
Trendline Breakdown:
The long-standing upward channel has been breached, indicating bearish pressure.
Bearish Patterns:
A confirmed head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline breakdown suggests further downside.
Emerging lower highs and lower lows confirm a bearish trend structure.
Critical Levels:
Resistance: 24,400 and 25,000.
Support: 23,625, 23,222, and 21,827.
Scenarios:
Bullish: A recovery above 24,400 could target 25,000.
Bearish: Sustained trading below 23,625 may lead to 23,222 or lower.
Trade Plan:
Short Trade: Consider shorting below 23,625 with a stop-loss at 24,000 and targets at 23,222 and 21,827.
Nifty Hourly Analysis | December Expiry | 24000Nifty has shown a resistance near 50% retracement of all time and swing low 24770.
Looks like wave B has completed.
we will observe the Price tomorrow near 24500 or below Yesterday low. Shorts can be initiated on weakness with Protective SL of 24772 and Target of 24150-24060- 23970 in 1-2 Days.
We can see 24k on this expiry.
Good buying opportunity in HDFCAMCWave 4 is almost finished in HDFCAMC.
We can see that a Flat Correction is getting over here.
Wave C of this Flat Correction is near 127%, where a 50% retracement level of the previous impulse is also present.
This creates a good buying cluster. The stop loss for this trade will be 61.8% (marked in red). As wave 4 will never reach this level, we can assume that this is a pretty valid level at which to put our stop.
This analysis is based on Elliott wave theory and Fibonacci.
This analysis is for educational purposes only.
Please always do your own research before you take any trade.
When to buy BHARTIAIRTELIn BHARTI AIRTEL, a Diagonal (Terminal impulse) is finished and the price is falling.
After any Diagonal the next fall is always 61.8% or 81.2%.
So, if anyone is interested in buying this stock, they may start buying near these two levels: 1577.45 and 1544.05.
This analysis is based on Elliott wave theory and Fibonacci.
This is not any buying recommendation. Please always do your own research before you take any trade.
This analysis is for educational purposes only.
US10Yrs. Bond Yield parallel channel. Nifty up move confirmationUS Government 10Yrs. Bond Yield trading in parallel channel. After fake break out it come down in channel again. As per chart it may correct up to 4%,3.79% and 3.06% level soon.
It has inverse relation with index, so nifty and bank nifty may give good up move in next 2-3 months as both charts suggested also the same.
Jyoti CNC Automation: Strong Growth, Expensive Valuation AheadJyoti CNC Automation has seen significant growth, reflected in its market cap of ₹32,690 Cr. and a current price of ₹1,436, near its 52-week high of ₹1,463. The stock’s remarkable rise from a low of ₹368 highlights strong investor interest. Key profitability metrics such as ROCE at 21.2% and ROE at 20.8% indicate efficient capital utilization and strong returns for shareholders.
However, the stock’s P/E ratio of 119 is notably high, suggesting an expensive valuation relative to earnings. Additionally, with a book value of ₹65.7, the stock trades at a significant premium, raising concerns about overvaluation. The absence of a dividend yield (0.00%) indicates the company is reinvesting profits for growth, making it appealing for growth-focused investors.
Overall, while Jyoti CNC Automation demonstrates strong fundamentals and growth potential, the premium valuation demands caution, especially for risk-averse investors.
Now talking about the Technical analysis of chart, we can observe that
- Stock is trading above its 20 EMA and 50 EMA
- Stock price has taken the liquidity above the previous weekly high price
- We have 2 FVG that could act as a potential buy are for smart money
- For buy our setup would be sweet as cake, we wait for any Fvg to be filled and a good bullish candle indicating strong participation.
- We mostly trade on Engulfing candles, Morning stars & Pinbars
Note this is for educational purpose only. Please do your own research before investing.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 17 Dec 2024NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 17 Dec 2024
Bullish-Above 24860
Invalid-Below 24810
T- 25150
Bearish-Below 24570
Invalid-Above 24630
T- 24310
NIFTY has closed on a bearish note with 0.4% cut today. It has formed an inside candle in daily TF at previous swing high. In case it breaks 24800 tomorrow then a good momentum in the higher side can be seen as per compression setup. In case 24570 is broken then it can trigger a fall towards 24300.
Coming to Tuesday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 24860 then we will long for the target of 25150.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 24570. T- 24310.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout.
==========
I am Not SEBI Registered
This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.
Nifty 50 spot 24556.00 by Hourly Chart viewNifty 50 spot 24556.00 by Hourly Chart view
- Intermediate Support Zone 24475 to 24525
- Resistance Zone 24750 to 24885 Price Band may become a Support Zone
- The Next Support Zone seen at 24300 to 24375 Price Band acting as H&S neckline
- Resistance Zone 24750 to 24885 Price Band needs to be crossed, closure sustained above it for continued upwards bullish transition
Nifty 50 spot 24781.30 by Hourly Chart viewNifty 50 spot 24781.30 by Hourly Chart view
- Intermediate Support Zone 24475 to 24525
- Resistance Zone 24750 to 24885 Price Band may become a Support Zone
- The Next Support Zone seen at 24300 to 24375 Price Band acting as H&S neckline
- Resistance Zone 24750 to 24885 Price Band needs to be crossed, closure sustained above it for continued upwards bullish transition
Rebound Revival: Will Nifty's Upward Trajectory Continue?● After experiencing a notable decline from its peak, the broad index has found support around the 23,250 level.
● Since then, it has demonstrated a strong recovery and is currently trading just below the key resistance level of 25,000.
● In the near term, the range between 23,900 and 24,000 is expected to act as support.
● We can anticipate a phase of consolidation between these immediate support and resistance levels, as suggested by the open interest data.
● Additionally, the 2-hour chart reveals the formation of an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, suggesting a bullish outlook.
● However, for a substantial upward movement, the Nifty must break through and maintain its position above 25,000.
silver Divergence TradingTrend lines are among the most accurate buy and sell indicators, along with simple moving average, stochastic, moving average convergence divergence, and relative strength index being the top trading indicators that help traders analyze the market signals effectively.
The best divergence indicators mt4 are MACD, RSI, stochastic, OA. They are user-friendly and simple but provide quite accurate trading signals. You can learn more about stochastic oscillator trading forex in the article Stochastic Oscillator: guide for using indicator in Forex trading.