Niftyelliottwave
Nifty Outlook: Is This The End Of The Bull Market?After breaking the parallel channel, the price entered the value area.
Price has started a seller initiative by going out of the price zone.
Buyers responded more to sellers' initiatives with an excess.
At this juncture, the price has entered the value area.
The lower band indicates the demand pressure.
If the price does not stay above the lower band at 17250, it could move downwards to the lower levels - 16628-16410 , because the price didn't break the 78.6% level.
Otherwise, the price will surge towards 17369- 17487-17612.
Note that if the price does not break the control line, it can not reach the upper band.
Time frame: hourly
Nifty Outlook - Will the bulls cease the falling knife of Nifty?Price Action Perspective:
Price is creating a value area where supply and demand are equal.
The control line of the value area has provided eight price touches to confirm the price move, and it has provided five reversals.
In this view, Nifty is on the control line of the value area at 17615 . Price has drawn a doji candle on the control line.
There are seven pieces of evidence of a reversal on the control, so the level of 17615 becomes a key level for traders.
In addition, nifty often gives a gap-up after every powerful doji candle. if it has the potential to reverse the price, nifty can reverse with gap-up. ( You can see green circles in the chart)
Conclusion:
If Nifty could not sustain above the control line, it would start a downward movement till the lower band of the price area. Price seems strong above the control line, and if the price sustains above 17614 , we may see a low 17760-17914-18123+.
NIFTY Research Report 1: Elliott wave & sentiment analysis
Time-frame: Daily
Research report: Elliott wave and sentiment analysis
Wave ((1))
Price has started an impulsive structure on 24 March 2020 . It has exceeded the supply pressure by creating demand.
Wave ((1)) formed as a leading diagonal because there was the existence of seller and supply pressure.
All the fundamentals were bearish before this move. So, it was a bit risky to think about a trend change without any proper signal.
Price has made a high of 9989 , and the fifth terminating wave completed the wave ((1)). It has started falling downward, and traders thought that price could make another leg down.
Wave ((2))
5th sub-wave has completed the wave ((1)).
Once again, the price hasn't signaled trend change, and the bearish perspective was less risky than the bullish perspective.
Corrective wave 2 formed a sharp correction, but it couldn't break the 50% level, and the price surged.
Price made a higher low.
Wave ((3))
Price broke the high of wave ((1)) at 9989 , which has given evidence of an impulsive atmosphere.
The price is going for a new high with heavy demand pressure, which has crushed supply pressure.
Bullish fundamentals and public participants have skyrocketed towards a new high.
Sub-wave of wave ((3))
Sub-wave 1 is an impulse at 1032 .
Sub-wave 2 is and sharp correction.
Sub-wave 3 is an impulse with 161.8 % Fibonacci Extension.
Sub-wave 4 is deep correction at 10790 .
Sub-wave 5 is the power extended wave at 15431.
Wave ((3)) has made a high of 15431, and public participants started booking profit.
Wave ((4))
After creating a high of 15431, buyers got surprising disappointment.
Price has started falling due to short-term bearish sentiments and the profit booking.
Wave ((4)) is a double zigzag pattern w-x-y, which indicates the single correction was not enough to correct the strong impulse move.
It has an alternation of the triangle.
Price has completed corrective wave ((4)) at 14151 .
Wave ((5))
After the accomplishment of wave ((5)), the price started a bullish move.
Price broke wave X, which signaled a bullish atmosphere.
Due to surprising disappointment, the price move is not as strong as we have seen in wave ((3)).
sub-wave of wave ((5))
Wave 1 is a five-wave impulse
Wave 2 is a less time-consuming wave.
Wave 3 is a normal extended wave.
Wave 4 is a deep correction triple zigzag (w-x-y-x-z), and broadning wedge.
Wave 5 is forming and has confirmed its bullish move by breaking wave X.
Conclusion:
I have the following reasons to consider the current move as an impulsive wave.
Wave counts without invalidation.
Price broke the X wave of the corrective structure.
Sub-wave 4 of wave ((5)) retraced 61.8 % of wave 3. As per rule, the 4th wave can't retrace more than 78.6% of wave 3.
Scenario 1:
Price is on the bullish momentum, but if price breaks down the wave X to take support, we can expect the following levels: 17790-17528-17316.
Scenario 2:
If the price is refusing for a retracement and continuously creating new highs, we price can go for 18600- 18825+
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Research Report 2: Price action analysis
Research Report 3: Multiple time frame analysis using EWT & Price action
NIFTY Research Report 2: Elliott Wave And Price Action analysis--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Timeframe: 1- Day
Theory: Elliott Wave
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Click here to read research report 1:
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Timeframe: 1- hour
Theory: Elliott Wave
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Let's zoom the 5th impulsive wave of wave ((5)) to know the current situation of the Wave cycle.
The ending point of wave 4 is the starting point of wave 5.
After the accomplishment of, triple zigzag, the price has started an impulsive wave, and it has broken the X wave.
X was had holder the correction, and break out of X wave increased public participant in nifty.
Wave formations of the impulsive wave 5 of wave ((5)).
Wave ((i)) is a leading diagonal.
Wave ((ii)) is a zigzag correction, retraced 50% of wave ((i)).
Wave ((iii)) is a five-wave impulse where sub-wave v is near to being completed.
After the completion of wave ((iii)) , the price will start the corrective wave ((iv)). The question is, how to know if the corrective wave started or not?
The best way to find the starting point of the corrective structure is the breakout of the base channel.
If the price breaks the base channel, it may end near the previous wave (iv). I have already mentioned levels in the daily time-frame analysis.
If the price couldn't break down the parallel base channel, it can create a new high, but it will give a short pullback to increase public participants.
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Timeframe: 1- hour
Theory: Price Action Analysis
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Price has broken out the downtrend channel and started an upward move.
However, the current bullish move looks strong, but the price can't make a new high without proper retracement.
Nifty can't get public participants Without trend pause( correction).
If the price breaks the parallel channel, we can expect the following support level: 18232-17944-17604-17261
Please note that the price is bullish above 18250 .
If the price takes support on the parallel channel, it can go for 18600-18845+ to touch the upper band of the channel.
Nifty outlook: bull trend or bull trap?In my previous post, I have mentioned that nifty can make an upward move before making the last leg.
Nifty was at 16999 , and it has made a high of 17400 on 31st December 2021.
Nifty is out of the channel and near to the previous lower high.
If nifty breaks up 17639 , we can expect a big upward move for 18210 , which indicates that correction is complete.
And if it fails to break the parallel channel, we can expect the following targets: 16909-16690-16449-16369 , and the price will start wave C of wave (Z).
Please note that the downtrend is below 17639.
I will upload further information soon.
NIFTY: Price Action Perspective And EWTDaily Chart:
Elliott Wave Perspective:
Nifty has completed the corrective wave A of triple zigzag (Z)
If the price gives a consecutive close above (X), it suggests that corrective structure has occurred and an impulsive wave started.
However, the price has given three moves after wave A.
Sub-wave a traveled 100% of wave B.
The price is weak below 17639 and strong above 17650.
In my previous idea, I have mentioned the price can be out of the channel. Sellers can enter after a rejection of the candle on a higher timeframe.
Safe traders can enter when the price enters into the downtrend channel.
Today's close will initiate positional views.
Price Action perspective:
After the accomplishment of the lower-low, nifty surged and reached near the previous lower-high point at 17639 .
As mentioned in down theory, An upward trend is a series of successively higher highs and higher lows.
Price is weak below 17639 , which is a previous lower high.
If nifty creates a swing failure, supply will exceed the demand.
Elliott Wave says NIFTY Going for 16369 Nifty is constructing triple three (x,y,z) right now.
Price is about to accomplish sub-wave B of triple three.
Buyers should be ready to exit from their position before the price reaches the nearest lower high at 17639 , which is wave (X) of the correction.
According to wave principle, if the price couldn't sustain above wave X, then the current trend is about to resume.
Currently, nifty's trend is bearish and, wave C can give a downward motion with the following targets:
TP 1: 16909
TP 2: 16690
TP 3: 16449
TP 4: 16369
Note that price can make an excess at the upper band of the channel.
Trade Setups (only for the safe traders):
Traders can enter when the price rejects the wave (X).
If the price breaks the (X) at 17639, it may be a fake-out. Traders can wait for the price to enter into the parallel channel.
Stop-loss can be the nearest high of the excess which will be out of the channel.
T rade Setups (only for the Lion heart traders):
Lion heart traders can enter in sell position when the price makes rejection of wave (X).
After the price rejection, they can initiate a short position below 17600.
Stop-loss can be high of the new lower high.
Stay in touch for the next update of this setup.
Nifty Outlook: The Case Of Initiative And Response Between Bulls
Nifty has continued forming the descending channel. Price has made three excess areas on the lower band. It means that bear traders are continuously trying to break down the descending channel. Price is following the control line with nine spot confirmation.
The trend will change after a breakout of the upper band, and it will drag the nifty price at my pivot point. And that pivot point will act as a hurdle. Hence, it has to climb up to that. And if that happens, then it will keep moving forward non-stop.
Otherwise, there is a high chance that the price will create an excess. This pivot has provided three successful reversals on the upper band.
Bearishness may drive nifty for one more leg down.
**NIFTY's Elliott Wave Perspective for Today**Nifty can bounce from 0.618% - 0.786% of retracement levels, and we may see 18350 again.
According to the Elliott Wave Principle, it can drop up to 1.00% of wave i. And a breakdown of wave 'i' is a direct sign of a strong downtrend.
Buyers must note that the price has broken 200 EMA.
Don't buy without any confirmation.
Part III: Nifty Sellers Crushed AgainI have uploaded the Nifty Elliott wave study, and it has reached the first target of 18164.
The trader can trade pullbacks on the nifty.
As per the rule of the channel, Parallel channel B can provide support to the price.
After the pullback, If the price is not giving any reversal signal, it's better to stay beside the market.
If the price tries to fill yesterday's gap, then bull traders can take a new entry.
Last Warning to NIFTY SellersNifty is forming corrective wave 4 of wave ((5))
Nifty has made a high at 18604 and started falling due to conclude of wave 3.
It has broken the base channel due to high selling pressure on Nifty.
The following terms confirm the nifty pullback.
A. The common Fibonacci retracement of wave 4 is 38.2%. Nifty has entered the 38.2% retracement level. It seems like the reversal is ahead.
B. Wave equality (A = C)
Wave C is 100% of wave A and vice-versa. If nifty breaks the previous low, then it can reverse between 100% to 161.8% range.
The corrective wave can complete if it sustains in the channel trendline.
I will upload Intraday charts to take trading decisions.
Nifty Outlook: A fight Between Bulls and Bears Nifty was heaving correction in previous weeks.
Now, It looks like it has completed corrective structure and marching upward.
If you are following my daily outlooks, you can understand these charts easily.
If the price is about to change the direction, It will make an initiative then confirm it.
Nifty will confirm its bull trend by breaking wave B at 18350.
In case, If you have missed my previous idea:
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Nifty can take two steps back before skyrocketing.
This week nifty may break 18350, and this level will increase high buying pressure.
The above chart shows that nifty seems price is forming a leading diagonal. Moreover, wave 5 is the ending point of the leading diagonal.
And completion of wave 'i' the wave 'ii' will take place. The wave 'ii' is corrective. So the day traders can initiate buy position there. It's a golden opportunity because of moderated risk here.
Safe intraday traders can enter at the breakout of wave i. This point is also initiating an opportunity. If the acceleration phase is sturdy, then It can hit 19200.
Please note that wave '2' can never overlap the starting point of wave '1'.
Nifty can retest 17169 before hitting the 18000 levelsIntraday & Short-term outlook of Nifty 50:
Nifty has completed motive wave (iii) at 17792 .
Wave (iv) is forming and, it can have a common retracement of 38.2% .
The nifty trader can see the following targets:
Target 1: 17425
Target 2: 17270
Target 3: 17169
According to the rule of corrective wave, it remains under the channel.
And the impulsive wave can breakout the parallel channel.
If nifty breaks the parallel channel, we have to accept the impulse atmosphere.
Nifty: Short Setup for Wave (iv)Nifty is on the corrective structure.
Wave (x) of the double zigzag is near to complete Wave (Y) has the potential to give a short entry for the following targets :
Target 1:17426
Target 2:17328
Target 3:17260
Further information I will update you soon. Stay connected!