31 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Monthly, Weekly & Daily ExpiryNifty Monthly Analysis
In the Aug monthly series, Nifty is down 387pts ~ 1.97%. This month did not produce a reversal signal even though there were 2 attempts on 24th & 30th respectively. As it stands Nifty is following a bearish trend channel quite efficiently. My next support comes at 18880, so if the fall were to accelerate in September, its good to know the next milestone.
Nifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has fallen only 100pts ~ 0.52%. Not something unusual comparing the monthly fall. Interestingly we made an attempt to reverse the trend yesterday - but that got run by a truck today.
Nifty Daily Analysis
Today’s price action was a continuation of what we had yesterday. If you look at the chart below, it is tough even to make out the separator between yesterday and today.
The reason for the fall today may be attributed to the allegations on Adani by Hindenburg along with the OCCRP, a firm funded by George Soros revealing data about a possible insider trading & manipulation. The data available on the public forum is pretty skewed and I personally dont have an opinion on it right now. But of all the rules set by SEBI, the insider trading case is the biggest manipulation that is possible. Once the investigation gets completed and if the claims still stand - it is going to put a real awkward image about India and Indian companies among the FIIs and HNIs.
The fall that happened today was nothing in front of what could happen. On a headline level we just fell 0.48% today well within the average true range. But this fall of 93pts took out the hope of bulls to have a reversal. Not only we breached the support of 19310 today, we even took out the swing low of 25th Aug.
From tomorrow if we stay as it is, then the horizontal support line of 19310 will no longer be required. All that stays back will be the bearish channel. I wish to change by stance to bearish for tomorrow unless the 19310 resistance is breached.
Niftyintradaylevels
FASP levels for Nifty 01/09/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 01-09-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
Nifty daily analysis for 01/09/23.Nifty has been trading below the 20 ema and is taking support from 19250 levels.
Market has lost around 200 points from this week high and is trading around the previous swing low.
If the market gives a gap up opening then there can be a halt candle and on the bearish side there will be another sell off.
On the hourly charts, the market came for selling and got rejection from the 20 ema. It has closed below both the moving averages.
There is a bearish moving averages cross over today, which has given a good R:R ratio of 1:2.5, on 15 minute time frame.
Nifty has been taking support from the trend line and has tested it 3-4 times. If the trend is broken then there can be a good sell off.
Support :- 19240, 19180
Resistance :- 19310, 19400
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 1 Sep 2023NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 1 Sep 2023
Bullish-Above 19290
Invalid-Below 19240
T- 19371 19455
Bearish-Below 19220
Invalid-Above 19270
T- 19105 19005
NIFTY has closed on a bearish note with 0.48% cut. Yesterday in both the indices I shared a possibility of a pullback today with half bat pattern as there was one leg move. Today it dipped and triggered sell without any pullback due to that it hit sl. Later after a pullback sell triggered again below 19330 and hit 1st target (19225). Tomorrow 19290 and 19220 are important levels for intraday. Also be alert about bullish reversal below 19220 as that's an important support.
Coming to Friday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 19290 then we will long for the target of 19371 and 19455.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 19220. T- 19105 and 19005.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range. Trade on this range breakout.
#nifty"Good morning! As of August 31st, the global market sentiment is neutral (based on the Dow Jones alone). The market trend is bearish, and the market might open with a slight gap-up. after that, if the gap-up doesn't sustain and there's a sharp decline, the correction will likely continue. On the other hand, if the gap-up sustains and breaks the 38% Fib level, the market might turn into a range-bound phase. In that case, we should wait for a range breakout."
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 31 Aug 2023NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 31 Aug 2023
Sell_1- From 19410
Invalid-Above 19460
T- 19345 18280
Sell_2- Below 19330
Invalid-Above 19380
T- 19230 19105
NIFTY has closed on an absolute flat note today after a roller coaster ride. It opened with a big gap up today and as per our trade setup 10 o'clock range was to be used. Initially 10 o'clock range broke above 19441 and last swing low was 19425, so around 16 points sl was hit. Later range broke downside below 19407 and last swing high was 19431, so with 25 points sl it gave 70 points straight move till gap area. I have been updating that although we have short position from 19560, index will give a straight move below 19220 only. In between it will be sideways.
Coming to Thursday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes below 19330 then we will short for the target of 19230 and 19105.
In case of a gap up 19410 is tested in the first hour then we will plan a short from there. T- 19345 and 19280.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range. Trade on this range breakout.
FASP levels for Nifty 31/08/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 31-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
30 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - 111pts fall in 60mts why? 🤔Nifty Analysis
This is what I wrote yesterday - “For tomorrow, I have a 60% neutral and 40% bullish view as we are right at the upper channel and above the support.” . Never did I believe we could have a neutral closing today after the big gap-up open. Even till 13.15 there was no sign of weakness and Nifty was looking & staying strong.
Luckily Nifty is a notch above the bearish descending channel. Still giving hopes to the bulls. I still have not figured out the reason why we fell 111pts after that. Was it the China news of stimulating the economy, cutting taxes on stock markets, a warning of distress or the German CPI or the US GDP expectations? I still dont think the Rs200 cut on LPG cylinder by the Oil Minister & then the comments that it will come as Govt. Subsidy and not from OMC’s margin would have triggered this fall.
This move has opened up multiple possibilities for the monthly expiry tomorrow. Let us discuss them.
On the hourly TF we now have 2 rejections when Nifty tried to breakout from the bearish channel. Both of them had strong selling momentum which indicates the Big-Bear is still alive & kicking. If we take out the descending channel - the chart pattern will appear like a lower high and lower low in which the lower low is not that intense.
For tomorrow I wish to keep a neutral view till 19310 is not taken out and if it does - would wait for the swing low of 19229.7 to be taken out to go short. When going short, I would expect a new lower low to be formed. Meanwhile if Nifty stays strong and respects the support - I will still keep my fingers crossed for a breakout momentum.
Nifty monthly expiry analysis for 31/08/23.Again nifty after a gap up opening couldn't sustain above the 20 ema and in the second half of the trading session came for selling, closing flat.
On the hourly time frame, market took support from 200 ema and showed some positivity but couldn't sustain and came for selling closing below both the moving averages.
Market has reversed after testing the 61.8% fib levels and the sell off good in volumes. The market has closed around the day low.
Tomorrow being a monthly expiry there are chance of a trending market as the market has been in a consolidation phase.
Even on the 15 minute time frame, the market has closed below both the moving averages.
Nifty was stronger than the other index. The sell off was a trending one and if continues for selling then it will be a short term downtrend.
Support :- 19310, 19250, 19180
Resistance :- 19360, 19410,19470
The market has resistances in a small range which will be difficult for the market to break.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
FASP levels for Nifty 30/08/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 30-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
#Nifty"Good morning! As of August 2nd, the global market sentiment is positive (based on the Dow Jones alone). The market trend is moderately bullish, and the market might open with a gap-up. Therefore, there is no significant difference from the last session. If the market sharply rejects the immediate resistance zone, we can anticipate a correction. Alternatively, if the market consolidates or breaks beyond it, the pullback will likely continue. On the other hand, if the gap-up doesn't sustain and breaks below the 38% Fib level, then the correction will probably persist."#nifty
29 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - 60% neutral 40% bullishNifty Analysis
Yesterday we had a neutral call on Nifty “Most importantly the 19310 support/resistance stands in between. A break in support may cause Nifty to follow the bearish channel. Whereas a breach in resistance will give Nifty breakout momentum as it exits the falling wedge. I wish to go with a neutral stance for tomorrow till we get some clarity.” You may not believe it, but today’s price action was between the 19310 horizontal support and the descending trend line.
The momentum was just not there to break the support nor break the trend line. We had 3 attempts each and all three of them failed. The open was gapup right at the trend line and we fell to the support by 10.25. From there we had a steady rise till 13.30 where we retested the trendline again but faced rejections.
The 2nd fall to the support came at 14.20 which was quick but lacking force. At 14.55, I seriously thought the support would get breached - instead we shot up to the trendline to close exactly on it.
On the 1hr TF, it seems like Nifty is coming under immense pressure to pick a direction. All clues are hinting at a bullish breakout as the support is too strong to be broken. The only reason the breakout is not happening may be because the big-bears have still not given up or booked profits. If new bears are not taking fresh shorts, then the existing short-sellers may have to run for cover as the market has a natural tendency to move up if it stays like this.
For tomorrow, I have a 60% neutral and 40% bullish view as we are right at the upper channel and above the support. If Nifty is unable to exit the channel in the first 90mts, I will look for neutral positions only. And if the lower channel is tested - I would like to convert my current positions to bearish ones.
Nifty daily analysis for 30/08/23.Nifty is not taking the benefit of the gap up opening and is coming for selling from the very first candle. Though, the market recovered after falling and closed 36 points above, still there is sideway to volatile market.
Option sellers market is on as the volatility is taking away the premiums benefitting the sellers.
On the hourly charts, it took support multiple times from the 20 ema and has closed between both the moving averages.
Nifty today has traded in a range of 50 points and has formed a box consolidation. The market is giving less intraday opportunities. It will be good to let market decide the trend and trade accordingly.
On 15 minute time frame, it has closed between both the moving averages and regained 40 points in the last two candles.
Support :- 19310, 19250
Resistance :- 19350-380, 19480
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 30 Aug 2023NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 30 Aug 2023
Bullish-Above 19380
Invalid-Below 19330
T- 19460 19545
Bearish-Below 19300
Invalid-Above 19350
T- 19230 19106
NIFTY has closed with slight gain today. Whole day it was sideways, traded inside previous day's range. In fact it just traded between 70 points range. Nothing triggered as per trade setup today. Till the time it is inside hourly rage of 19500 and 19200 it is going to be sideways. Tomorrow above 19380 if sustained there can be a good up move. Below 19300, the downside move triggers. Also the 19220 is safe in daily TF which is the gateways to further fall in NIFTY.
Coming to Wednesday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 19380 then we will long for the target of 19460 and 19545.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle closes below 19300. T- 19230 and 19106.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range. Trade on this range breakout.
#nifty"Good morning! As of August 2nd, there is no significant difference compared to the last session. The global market sentiment is slightly positive (based on the Dow Jones alone). The market trend is moderately bullish, and the market might open with a slight gap-up. Therefore, we can expect a minor pullback afterward. If the market rejects the immediate resistance zone, we can anticipate a correction. Alternatively, if the market consolidates or breaks beyond it, the pullback will likely continue. On the other hand, if the gap-up doesn't sustain and breaks the 38% Fib level, then the correction will probably persist."#nifty #banknifty #finnifty
FASP levels for Nifty 29/08/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 29-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
28 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - critical juncture 19310Nifty Analysis
Contrary to the expectations, today turned out to be a boring day. The open was right at the SR level of 19310, still it was gap up as our prior close was near 19250 levels. Even then the resistance breach did not come then, we had to wait till 11.15 for a 5mts candle above the SR zone.
BankNifty was looking in tremendous form today, we will discuss that separately in the analysis below. Due to this Nifty was also staying afloat, the real breach of resistance came at 12.30 only. And it looked like we may break out from the channel today.
But by 14.05 it became quite clear that we will not have a break-out today. Surprisingly Nifty gave a final close below 19310 which still gives hope to bears.
On the 1hr chart - things are still not clear. There is an overlap of 2 technical patterns.
1. Walling wedge
2. Bearish channel
Most importantly the 19310 support/resistance stands in between. A break in support may cause Nifty to follow the bearish channel. Whereas a breach in resistance will give Nifty breakout momentum as it exits the falling wedge. I wish to go with a neutral stance for tomorrow till we get some clarity.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 29 Aug 2023NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 29 Aug 2023
Bullish-Above 19370
Invalid-Below 19320
T- 19439 19510
Bearish-Below 19225
Invalid-Above 19275
T- 19106 19005
NIFTY has closed with a slight gain of 0.21% gain today, almost sideways. 19220 is still safe, the gateway for the down move. It was almost sideways between yesterday's range. Tomorrow 19370 is very important for up side in intraday. Below 19225 if sustained then sellers will take charge. In between it will be sideways, so better to sell the range till then. 19290 is a confluence level but that will be an aggressive level to play with.
Coming to Tuesday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 19370 then we will long for the target of 19438 and 19510.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 19225. T- 19106 and 19005.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range. Trade on this range breakout.
Nifty daily analysis for 29/08/23.Nifty is still forming doji after doji. The market on the daily time frame is still below the moving average and in sideways mood.
On the hourly charts, market tested the support zone and tried to move up but took resistance from the 20 ema and gave a retracement after touch the levels. There is also an evening star pattern there.
Market slow tried to move upper but couldn't give some conviction as there was a rejection from 20 ema (60 minute) and 38.2% levels.
On 15 minute charts, nifty has closed below both the moving averages and is taking support around 19300 levels.
The market are showing some negative sentiments as it is taking resistance from the key levels.
Support :- 19250, 19180, 19000
Resistance :- 19380, 19480
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Nifty - Analysis & Prediction - for 29 Aug 2023Nifty Heading towards 18900..?
BEARISH Trend Continues...
Demand and Supply Zones - When price breaks the zone, Demand zone will become Resistance and Supply zone will become Support.
Refer the chart for detailed Intraday Support and Resistance levels.
Happy Trading!!