27 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty + Weekly + Monthly AnalysisNifty Monthly Analysis
Nifty is up 707pts ~ 3.73% this July Expiry month. The breakout from the last known resistance of 18880 came on the last working day of the previous month. All Nifty had to do was sustain that momentum and see where it has taken it? Almost for 11 days Nifty revised its all time highs. The last 5 days has been pretty unlucky for the bulls.
Nifty Weekly Analysis
Probably this was the only week in this month that belonged to the bears, we dropped 268pts ~ 1.34% between the last expiry and today. And this is the first week in this current month where nifty did not hit a new all time high. Although I had taken the short position from last friday, it was negated in the trade yesterday. And I am back to square one today as Nifty shows bearishness.
Nifty Daily Analysis
Nifty fell an impressive 264pts ~ 1.33% today and did 2 important things today.
Broke the island gap formation of yesterday, immediately negating the bullish stance
Broke the swing low of day before yesterday confirming continuation in bearish stance.
In yesterday’s analysis we did discuss the possibility of a fake move if Nifty retouches the 19600 levels. I wanted that to happen in the forenoon, but it happened only by 15.00. And the last 30mts nifty gained back 100 points to close in decent territory.
The 2 abrupt moves took out my stop losses in either direction, so this week it was all learning and no earning 🙂
Yesterday’s island formation encircled, to enter the prior session’s bearish stance - nifty will have to fall below 19540 tomorrow. This may seem quite too much as US markets SPX, DJI and NDQ are currently celebrating better than expected GDP data. Regarding the options premium behaviour - I will discuss in the banknifty analysis below.
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Please comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with mine!
Niftyintradaylevels
FASP levels for Nifty 28/07/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 28-07-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
Nifty daily analysis for 28/07/23.A bearish engulfing candle on the daily time frame is showing some negative mood in the market but it is taking support from 19630 levels.
Not a single green candle is formed on the hourly charts and market fell around 200+ points from the day high, closing 120 points lower or 0.6%.
On the hourly charts, market is trading around the 20 ema and has again closed below the level after a nice gap up opening.
RSI indicator is too showing bearish divergence on the daily charts. Even on the smaller time frame, there was a divergence and the option premium on the Put side increased by 9 times from the day low.
Support :- 19630, 19570
Resistance :- 19700, 19860
The monthly expiry day gave a nice trending market and was a day of option buyers. From the first hour candle there was a fall and it continued till the close of the market.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Nifty analysis for 27/07/23 (monthly expiry).Nifty traded inside the first hour candle and closed 100 points higher forming a confusion candle charts.
The market are consolidating and creating confusion. On the hourly charts, started trading above the 20 ema after the gap up and took support from the levels. Nifty traded in 70 points range after the first hour candle.
Initially, both the indices were travelling in different direction and nifty leading but finally banknifty also followed the index and closed above 46k levels.
On 15 minutes chart, there was a constant rejection from 19825 levels and closed below the 20 ema after the fall of the final hour.
Support :- 19760, 19700, 19640
Resistance :- 19825, 91870 ,19990
Nifty has consolidated and can give nice trend on the monthly expiry. Watch for the movement as option premium can give nice movement too.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 26 Jul 2023NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 26 Jul 2023
Bullish-Above 19710
Invalid-Below 19660
T- 19811 19915
Bearish-Below 19610
Invalid- Above 19660
T- 19515 19413
NIFTY has closed on an absolute flat note today. Nifty has been trading in a falling channel since last 3 sessions. Breakout of this would propel market to give a directional move. Breakout levels are 19710 in the upside and 19610 in the downside, has to sustain in 15 Min TF. We have to be neutral for both side. However it looks a bit ready for upside as per today's closing. Today sell triggered as per trade setup which hit 50 points sl.
Coming to Wednesday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 19710 then we will long for the target of 19811 and 19915.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 19615. T- 19515 and 19413.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range. Trade on this range breakout.
Nifty Trade setup for 05-07-2023Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 25-07-2023
#Support: 19660
Short if candle closes below 19660.
#resistance: 19760
Long if candle closes above 19760.
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 19600
Target 2= 19500
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 19820
Target 2= 19870
Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
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Nifty daily analysis for 26/07/23.Nifty has traded inside a 100 points range and closed almost flat. A red candle has been formed after a gap up opening.
On the hourly charts, market traded below the 20 ema. Today it remained in a range and made difficult for the option buyers.
A constant rejection from 19700 level was faced by the buyer and market was unable to cross and sustain above it.
On 15 minutes charts, both the moving averages are close enough and a bearish moving averages cross over has been formed.
RSI divergence is there showing some weakness in strength on the top.
Support :- 19635, 19560
Resistance :- 19700, 19760
The market has formed resistances near by and chance of retesting lower levels are high as per the RSI divergence.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
Nifty 50 IntraDay Chart Analysis 25th July 2023If Opening Flat - Between Range = 19653 to 19780 .
* After Consolidation of minimum 25-30 minutes in the Flat range if candle closes above 19780 then 1st Target is 19815 and 2nd Target is 19843.
* After Consolidation of minimum 25-30 minutes in the Flat range if candle closes below 19653 then 1st Target is 19600 and 2nd Target is 19571.
* I will avoid trading in the Flat zone.
#nifty"Good morning! As of July 25th, the global market is indicating a positive start, with GIFT Nifty showing a +45 point increase. There is no significant difference from the last session, suggesting a range-bound market structure. The market's nature is moderately bullish, and there is a possibility of a slight gap-up opening. If it sustains within the range, we can expect the market to continue without a correction. However, a correction may occur if it breaks below the immediate support zone."
Nifty trade plan for 25-07-2023Nifty is not able to pull back & selling pressure is coming on every time it is try to pull back.
Most likely all the early sellers will be trapped by sharp recovery.
Also selling at already discounted price is very risky, lets price get in to premium for a good entry point to short.
24 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Bearish trend continuationNifty Analysis
I was quite happy to see the last 45 to 60mts of trade happening in the direction of the trend. For days unknown we used to have dip buyers who come in at 14.30 to 15.00 and then change the dynamics all together.
If you notice we had a good downtrending pattern developing on the 5mts TF. Ever since we broke down from 21st July, bears were able to form a lower low & lower high till now. Whether it replicates on the higher time frames only time will tell.
We had 3 important price actions today
1. Gap down open and then a gap-closing rally till 10.30 wherein we recovered 79pts
2. Leg1 of downfall from 10.40 to 11.55 wherein we shaved off 113pts
3. Leg2 of downfall from 14.05 to close where we lost 118pts
I was quite worried when the market started to recover from 12.00 to 14.00 - because if this swing high goes above the day’s range then I was almost sure the dip buyers will do the rest in the closing hour. Fortunately bears had a good day today, after a long long gap probably. Pushing down the prices on Nifty & Banknifty has been pretty difficult for the last 1 year!
Bearish TrendLine
Ideally the trend line should start from the point where we fell, but with the data so far it's hard to connect the dots. Once the pattern starts building up for a few more days - we will re-draw it with more accuracy.
As it stands if Nifty keeps making lower lows and lower highs then its easy for bears to push down the prices. If we negate that pattern either with a news flow or event or even a reluctance to fall - we will lose the momentum to the bulls! We will continue going short till the swing high is not violated.
Nifty daily analysis for 25/07/23.Nifty on the daily charts have formed a red candle losing 72 points.
The market has closed below 19700 and on the hourly charts, after taking multiple rejection from 20 ema, it closed below the levels.
It has been trading in a parallel falling channel. It also gave a fake out but couldn't sustain above it.
On the hourly charts, evening star pattern formation during the closing hour shows some negativity.
Another flag and pole pattern formation can be there and after a consolidation phase, there are chances of a break out or break down.
On 15 minute time frame, market has closed between both the moving averages.
Support :- 19640, 19560
Resistance :- 19740-60, 19850
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 25 Jul 2023NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 25 Jul 2023
Buy-Above 19785
Sl-19735
T- 19915 20045
Sell-below 19655
Sl-19705
T- 19554 19430
NIFTY has closed on a slight bearish note with 0.37% cut today. It was a volatile session where all up moves were sold into. Last week our swing long target was hit and then today our TSL was also hit below 19700. It was said that bullish sentiment likely to change on TSL. And today it was sensed when all up moves were shorted. 19785 and 19655 are important levels for tomorrow's session. No bullishness till we make a higher high structure in hourly TF.
Coming to Tuesday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 min candle closes above 19785 then we will long for the target of 19915 and 20045.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 19655. T- 19554 and 19430.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range. Trade on this range breakout.
Nifty Trade Setup for 24-07-2023
Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 24-07-2023
#Support: 19706
Short if candle closes below
#resistance: 19820
Long if candle closes above
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 19600
Target 2= 19480
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 19880
Target 2= 19980
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#niftyGood morning! As of July 24th, the global market is indicating a negative start, with GIFT Nifty showing a -40 point decrease. The market nature is moderately bullish, but there is a possibility of a slight gap-down opening. after that If it takes a pullback, then the range will continue; however, if the gap-down sustains, we can expect correction continuation. That should break the immediate support zone.
Nifty trade plan for 24-07-2023Sever fall on Friday after very strong rally on Thursday.
What it has done is damaged the sentiment of the market for short term.
It is advisable to wait for clear direction to take positional trade.
On intraday break of channel can be played out as upside but the gap created on friday can be filled before the fall begins.
Nifty weekly analysis for 24/07/23.Nifty after the IT sector result was dragged 230 points lower losing 1.17% and forming a long upper wick on the weekly charts.
On the daily fibonacci retracement, market took support around 38.2% levels and has respected it quite well. The market are in a bullish move and the retracement is also necesary for another leg.
The bullish trend is technically correct and higher high higher low forming is also going on.
RSI indicator, on the hourly charts, show some weakness in the strenght and there are chances of market retesting 50 to 61.8% fib levels as there is a bearish divergence in the indicator.
The market has closed below 20 EMA, on the hourly charts, and traded whole day below it.
Support :- 19730, 19635, 19570
Resistance :- 19840, 19993(ATH)
A good bull market is going on. This is the 4th leg of the up move and chance are that the market can go for a sideways movemove or a short term bear phase before any up move.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 24 Jul 2023NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 24 Jul 2023
Buy-Above 19825
Sl-19775
T- 19935 20045
Sell-Below 19700
Sl-19750
T- 19554 19430
NIFTY has closed on a bearish note last Friday with more than 1% cut. It was said that our swing long position is 20k which was almost hit, so a profit booking was obvious. We longed from 18460 then above 18900 we opted PDL as TSL. If a daily candle closes below PDL and that red candle's low is breached then we will exit. On Friday it closed below so below 19700 we will book full position in long. If our TSL is hit then chances of a sentiment change will be there which means there can be a profit booking. Also all previous week's low have been safe, break of that also may trigger profit booking. However we need a proper bearish structure in daily TF to consider this or else it will be still bullish to sideways.
Coming to Monday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 19825 then we will long for the target of 19935 and 20045.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 19700. T- 18554 and 19430.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range. Trade on this range breakout.