21 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Quite a predictable fall today!Nifty Analysis
If you had read yesterday’s report, I am sure you would have anticipated the gap down today & the profit taking that followed. Today’s price action may not be a structural change or the start of the next bear rally (at least too early to comment). What I feel is, we have out run the fundamentals & need to give some time for it to catch up so that the next peak can be conquered.
We opened gap down at 19798 and tried to close the distance, but had rejection near the 19880 levels. From there we fell strongly till 12.25 with no signs of retracement or reversal. Once the green candle started forming at 12.30, I drew the Fibonacci retracement levels.
I kept yesterday’s close level as 1 and the intraday low formed at 12.25 as 0 - the purpose was to find if we have a continuation in downfall or a reversal to close the gap.
I did share this on nifty minds - see here.
Was this exercise worth it? Absolutely yes.
1. We saw the reversal at 09.25 came at 61.8% retracement level
2. The lower high formed between 13.30 to 14.00 came at 38.2% retracement level
3. The fall that followed and the break of the 0 level creating a new lower low almost gives us a good confidence that the fall in nifty is quite serious.
Trades taken: I did go short as soon as markets opened to catch the moving bus. This was purely a gut decision and nothing to do with positional strategy. At 12.30 as soon as we had the first reversal of the day, I booked the existing short position & rolled down the option to catch more action. This new position was in loss till 14.15 after which we started falling below the low of the day, assessing this situation - I decided to carry forward the position overnight.
Niftyintradaylevels
Nifty Expiry special trade setup ! Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 20-07-2023
#Support: 19760
Short if candle closes below 19760
#resistance: 19580
Long if candle closes above 19850
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 19720
Target 2= 19680
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 19910
Target 2= 20000
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#NiftyNifty - If the market forms a consolidation pattern between today's low and the Fibonacci level of 78%, then we can expect a rally continuation. On the other hand, if it rejects around the 61% to 78% Fibonacci level, we can expect a correction, with a potential reach towards the Fibonacci levels of 38% to 50%.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 21/07/2023Nifty will be gap Down opening in today's session. After opening nifty start trading below 19960 level and then possible Downside rally up to 19840 in today's session. in case nifty trades Above 20000 level then the upside target can go up to the 20120 level.
Nifty trade plan for 21-07-2023Nifty perfectly gave steep move as mentioned when got channel breakout, now all we have is support on dips.
only buy is suitable if want to trade with main trend, however counter trade can be also an opportunity for a pro trader
but simple and easy trade plan is to wait for price to come to your buy level to capitalize your hard earned money.
Say "NO TO RANDOM TRADING"
Nifty - Prediction & Intraday Levels for - 21 Jul 2023Nifty Tomorrow:
Sideways to BEARISH
Demand and Supply Zones - When price breaks the zone, Demand zone will become Resistance and Supply zone will become Support.
Refer the chart for detailed Intraday Support and Resistance levels.
Happy Trading!!
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 21 Jul 2023NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 21 Jul 2023
Buy-Above 19995
Sl-19945
T- 20076 20161
Sell-Below 19920
Sl-19970
T- 19805 19684
NIFTY has closed on a bullish note once again with 0.74% gain. It opened flat and then buy triggered as per trade setup above 19855 and hit 1st target very smoothly. Trade gave a good momentum from 19855 till 19990+. So our 1st target in swing long (from 18460) position is hit finally. We are close to psychological level of 20k. One can book some if sell triggers as per trade setup in intraday and book full when opted TSL is hit. If a daily candle closes below PDL and that red candle's low is breached then we will exit. Till then enjoy the open sky momentum.
Coming to Friday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 min candle closes above 19995 then we will long. T- 20076 and 20161.
For selling we need a 15 min candle close below 19920. T- 19805. Below 19800 post bounce T- 19684.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range. Trade on this range breakout.
20 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty, kissing distance of 20000Nifty is up an impressive 526pts ~ 2.71% between the last expiry & today. This is by far the most impressive breakout by Nifty. From the last known resistance level of 18880, nifty is up 6.07% ~ 1142pts in a span of 3 weeks.
Guess what? My analysis went deeply wrong this monday when I exited the long position, I had a neutral call for this week and was expecting a rally by month end. I am not sad that I lost the opportunity cost of unwinding a long position on Nifty, but because my analysis failed to see this possibility.
I was really hoping Nifty will consolidate this week, seeing through the RELIANCE demerger and make its play next week. As we are the apex point, there are no resistances & moving up was the easiest way!
Daily Analysis
Nifty was looking weak in the opening minutes, maybe because of the RELIANCE demerger effect.
During the pre-open period till 09.15, Reliance settled for a price of 945 & we were all shocked. However the real pre-open for Reliance & Jio Financial price discovery was till 10.00 AM and it opened at a price of 2580 which was more or less what the participants were anticipating.
Let us not take the credit out of Nifty50, after 10.00 Nifty made up the lost ground in a quick rally by 10.30. That was only a start. Nifty made an intraday swing of 232pts ~ 1.18% and the momentum was building up!.
In fact it was banknifty that triggered this outperformance today, nifty was quick to catch up on this opportunity & take out its all time highs. The brand new ATH is 19991.85 just 8.15pts for the 20000 milestone.
I stopped my long call when nifty was at 19540, from there we have gone up 450 pts. This is the first time my own analysis went against me, probably I may not get over that anytime soon!
Whats next?
Infosys declared its results and the signs of slowdown are quite evident. We have a situation where the banks are having good results overshadowing the rise in NPAs and ITs having lower than expected profit potential. Even the results from HUL was not looking good prima facie - but I am not quite sure if these factors will stop the bull run on Nifty! Remember markets can remain irrational till you are ….
Nifty daily analysis for 21/07/23.Nifty almost touched the 20k levels today and has closed near the high. Market are running higher and Bulls are taking on the sellers making it difficult for the option sellers today.
On the hourly charts, the first candle was in red and after that whole day the market rallied upside.
The breakout gave a good target and option premium gained more than 200% gains.
Even during the last hour market kept on going higher without taking a halt and tried to touch the round figure levels.
Support :- 19850, 19730
Resistance :- 20000
The market are in the bull market and no real resistance is there. Fibonacci retracement tool can be considered to find resistance levels.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Nifty trade plan for 20-07-2023Nifty worked well with buy on dip, as explained in yesterday's analysis
Now tomorrow is expiry and market managed to closed above today's high which is also a ATH.
must break this channel on upside to see steep move on the upside
Lower levels of the channel can act as support.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 20/07/2023Nifty will be FLAT opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 19850 level and then possible upside rally up to 19970 in today's session. in case nifty trades below 19810 level then the downside target can go up to the 19700 level.
#niftyGood morning! As of July 20th, the global market is indicating a positive start with GIFT Nifty showing a +2 points increase, resulting in a moderate bullish market sentiment. There is no significant difference compared to the last session, and there is a possibility of a slight gap-up opening. If the market maintains its structure, we can expect a rally continuation with minor corrections. However, in the event of a sharp decline in the initial market, we can anticipate only a minor correction.
FASP levels for Nifty 20/07/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 20-07-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 20 Jul 2023NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 20 Jul 2023
Buy-Above 19855
Sl-19805
T- 19940 20026
Sell-Below 19725
Sl-19775
T- 19637 19555
NIFTY has closed on a bullish note with 0.42% gain today. Since last two days intraday momentum have dropped. Since last two days index is almost sideways. Although our swing long position is going well. We have longed from 18460 and above 18900 we opted TSL as PDL. If a daily candle closes below PDL and that red candle's low is breached then we will exit our longs. However we are very close to our psychological target of 20000. One can book some in this region and book full when trailing is hit.
Coming to Thursday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 19855 then we will long for the target of 19940 and 20026.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 19725. T- 19637 and 19555.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range. Trade on this range breakout.
19 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty | 87pts surge in 45mNifty Analysis
Today turned out to be a non-eventful day for me. Looking at the premiums yesterday, I came prepared to hunt for similar option prices. Unluckily the premiums did not have that wildly swings like yesterday. In the process I ended up not taking what was available 😢
We opened gap up today and then had an up move till 09.55, from there it fell 110 pts ~ 0.56% till 11.15. This fall was quite interesting as most of the candles were red indicating we could have a momentum pick-up later in the day. But by 11.55 the selling pressure was over and nifty climbed back pretty strongly.
One strong reason would be attributed to the reversal in NiftyIT index. It had that perfect V shape today and this sharp reversal helped Nifty scale back up.
Nifty already took out the ATH by 09.55 i.e 19841.65, and what happened in the last 45mts was unbelievable yet again. It formed a new ATH of 19847.15 in the closing minutes showing brute bullish strength.
Ideally Nifty50 should be scaling further heights because there are no visible resistance levels. Similarly few of the bulls could think about profit booking & it could result in a shallow retracement. Usually I prefer to wait out these periods, because as an option seller - I prefer to trade between support & resistance levels. Whereas an option buyer could design a strategy to play the break-out & break-downs.
Nifty weekly expiry analysis 20/07/23.Nifty is forming new highs daily and today it has closed near the high as well.
It has formed a dragon fly doji and is supported by other index too. There are good chances of hitting 20k levels in july series.
On the hourly charts, it is trading in a rising parallel channel pattern. Tomorrow is weekly expiry and breakout/breakdown can give good targets.
The markets are in the bull mode and even the global markets are supporting it.
On 15 minutes chart, it is respecting the 20 ema. After breaking the level it recovered took support from it again and during the last hour gave a nice upside movement.
Support :- 19760, 19650
Resistance :- 19875(fib level)
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 19/07/2023Nifty will be FLAT opening in today's session. After opening nifty start trading above 19800 level and then possible upside rally up to 19930 in today's session. in case nifty trades below 19740 level then the downside target can go up to the 19620 level.
#NiftyGood morning! As of July 19th, the global market is showing a positive start (GIFT Nifty +5) with a moderate bullish market sentiment. There is a possibility of a slight gap-up opening. If the market sustains its structure, we can expect a range market to continue rallying. On the other hand, if the initial market experiences a sharp decline, we can anticipate a minor correction.
18 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Reliance's impact on nifty50?Nifty50 had a surprising comeback today, we opened gap up and then there was a strong rally till 11.05 where we set a new all time high of 19819.45. From 11.05 to 12.05 we had a decent fall of 129pts ~ 0.65%.
Surprisingly the falling stopped right there and we bounced back quite strong. NiftyIT took part in the rally post 13.30 which helped Nifty stay green. BankNifty was not that supportive though (we will discuss in detail below).
Today’s price action shows someone will come up to support nifty in its pursuit, if the banks fail, IT supports. If IT underperforms then RELIANCE or ITC will support. The last 800pts rally would have really sucked the soul out of the bears. No matter what they do, they cannot push down the prices.
I was waiting for Nifty to fall below the 19600 to go short, I did not want to go long because I was scared of heights 🙂. How Reliance demerger will plan out on 19th July is another question. The current stock value of Reliance is considered as the sum of reliance + jio financials. On 19th both the entities will be delisted and on 20th only reliance will be relisted. So whatever price difference between the closing price of 19th and pre open price of 20th is considered the share price & percentage of Jio financials.
In an ideal case Nifty50 index should take a big hit - I am yet to find out how they are hard coding to prevent this from happening. Thats because Jio Financials as a separate entity is not eligible to be part of Nifty50 & Reliance will have a reduced market cap & pricing which should create outflows.
The hourly chart is looking bullish and no worries so far. I am so inclined to be a contrarian and take a short position near the 19600 levels, not because I am bearish but because I am so shocked to see this rally. Believe a profit booking is overdue.