#nifty"Good morning! As of September 20th, global market sentiment is slightly negative, primarily due to the performance of the Dow Jones. The market trend is moderately bearish; it may open with a slight negative gap. After that, if it breaks the immediate support zone, we can expect a continuation of the correction. On the other hand, if the initial market experiences a sharp pullback, it will transition into a range market, leading to a continuation of the rally."
Niftyintradaysetup
NIFTY - Target - Levels - 20.09.2023.Nifty Spot : 20133.35. Option Strike : 20150 CE & 20150 PE
I Am Not Sebi Registered Analysis, This Is Education Purpose Only.
Dear Followers.. Trend Is Our Friend..
1. Draw The Lines In Your Trading View.. Then Only You Understand My Statistical Startegy.
2. Kindly Watch My Break Even Point. Every Day.
3. Above The Break Even Point.. Resistance Break.. UPTREND Starts.. Buy CE..
4. Below The Break Even Point.. Support Break.. DOWNTREND Starts.. Buy PE..
5. After Retracement.... Stop Loss is Above Or Below Break Even Point
6. Stop Loss Is Must..
Don"t Enter Blindly.
1. We Focus On Our Daily Analysis..
2. Combination Theory Of Delta, Gamma & Thetta,.
3. Selection Of OI Analysis & Prediction Of Entry, StopLoss, & Targets,
4. 4 Types Of Fibinacci Retracement Levels (High To Low, Low To High, Long & Short),
5. Techninal View On Break Even Point.
6. Wait For Support Breaking or Resistance Breaking.. That Time Watch The Market Carefully.
7. Market Moves in UpTrend or DownTrend.
8. Kindly Watch Both The Nifty Target Levels & Bank Nifty Target Levels in your Trading View.
Its Most Important For Daily Tradings….
Kindly Follow My Channel & Like Your Support in My Idea.
BY : newsbharathi27040.
Nifty Trade Setup for 18-09-2023Nifty important levels to watch are as follows
#Support: 20165
Sell below: 20165 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level.
Target 1: 20110
Target 2: 20050
#Resistance: 20225
Buy Above: 20225 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level.
Target 1: 20260
Target 2: 20310
#Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
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#nifty"Good morning! As of September 18th, global market sentiment is slightly turning negative, primarily based on the performance of the Dow Jones. The market trend is moderately bullish; it may open with a slightly negative gap. After that, if it takes support around the immediate support zone, then we can expect the range market to continue rallying. However, if it breaks the immediate support level, the correction is likely to continue."
15 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Crazy last 30mts in HDFC & RILNifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: I wish to stay with the moderately bullish stance for tomorrow as well. Since I am holding a long position my personal preference would be to close above 20167.
We had a good positive day today, the start itself was right at the swing high of yesterday and we built up the momentum from there. The euphoria, FOMO continues and people continue to pour money. Nifty Energy, FMCG, Metals did not close in the green today. ONGC had a super start but gave up all the gains soon. The real question now is - Does Nifty have more firepower to continue the rally?
Two instances of pull back stands out today, first at 12.05 to 12.30 period and then 15.05 to close. The 2nd one looked more dangerous than a casual profit booking. I was watching the price fluctuation in RELIANCE and HDFCBK - the volumes and swings were pretty unusual.
Both of them fell from the high of the day, RELIANCE even hit the low of the day in this period. Brutal swings accompanied by huge volumes - most likely a news flow driven price action.
On the 1hr TF Nifty has gone almost vertical for the last 900pts. Ideally it would be good if it consolidates at these levels. If the consolidation doesn't happen - there is a high risk of fall. For Monday I wish to maintain the same 50% neutral 50% bullish stance. And wish to go short if 20100 level is getting taken out.
Expiry Special Analysis NIfty |Hero Zero trade will be by 1:15pmGood Morning Traders,
After a day of consolidation, market has gained momentum with the closing above psychological milestone (20000), first time in September. Rally was specially in banking stocks. I think this bullishness can take nifty towards 20200-20450 levels in coming days, if nifty holds 19900-19800 levels. Global market still showing mix momentum, American market has given good closing in yesterday session. Gift Nifty also indicating minor gap up in Nifty around 33 points.
Important levels for NIfty:-
Support zone for intraday 19950
Resistance zone 20110-50
Buy above 20090, if levels sustains at least for 15 mints.
Targets we can see in upside 20143/20191+
Keep stop loss at 20040
Sale below 20040, if levels sustains at least for 15 mints.
Target we can see in downside 19949
Keep stop loss at 20090
Note:- Hero Zero Trade will be in 2nd half somewhere 1:15pm. So, we will update in afternoon according to price action, so stick with us and follow us to get notity at right time. Till then enjoy but don't overtrade and Always wait for the best entry or levels to execute trades. And always follow strict stop loss to save your capital from unexpected market direction.
Disclaimer:- Please always do your own analysis or consult with your financial advisor before taking any kind of trades.
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#nifty"Good morning! As of September 15th, there is no significant difference compared to the last session. Global market sentiment remains neutral, primarily based on the performance of the Dow Jones. The market trend is moderately bullish, with a possibility that it may open with a neutral to slightly bullish gap. If the market subsequently breaks the previous high, we can anticipate a rally continuation with minor consolidation. On the other hand, if the gap-up doesn't sustain, we can expect the market to enter a correction phase."
14 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty + Weekly Expiry AnalysisNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today Nifty is up an impressive 378pts ~ 1.92%. We really did pick up some directional momentum this week. Almost all the sectors were assisting Nifty hit an all time high in this historic week and conquer 20000.
Nifty Daily Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “I expect the expiry to be above 19989 if we still have the bullish sentiment. I wish to stay 50% neutral and 50% bullish for tomorrow and would like to go 100% bullish once the swing high of 20110 is taken out.” Since we hit a new ATH by 09.40 today and because it was above my bullish level of 20110 I had to go long today. I rolled up my PUT positions from 19900 to 20000 for protection.
I am quite relieved that the 20000 PE expired out of the money otherwise my bullish bias would have been proven wrong. Meanwhile the CE long option was rolled over for the next week’s expiry.
The bullish momentum lasted only till 09.45 after which we were falling quite strongly. All the 5mts candles from 09.50 to 10.15 were in red. The 20000 PE option I had taken did appreciate more than 175% but I somehow decided not to exercise.
We closed at just 0.16% gains, so quite relieved that yesterday's analysis played out okay. Regarding the option prices - the OTM premiums were not attractive for an expiry day options seller. This is the 2nd expiry we had after decoupling banknifty from nifty.
With the current VIX scenario - the only route to make money for OTM option sellers is to shuffle the positions between banknifty or nifty or finnifty depending on the abrupt jumps in premiums due to lack of liquidity. I will try to write out an article by this weekend explaining the concept with examples.
On the 1hr TF Nifty has made a healthy upward pattern and as discussed over the last 2 sessions - a consolidation at the current levels will give it some stability. Parallelly since we took the ATH - a part of it would want to break free as that is the path of least resistance. If you are a bear - the only way you could fight back in is to close Nifty below 19989 or get a quick swing below 19960.
I wish to stay with the moderately bullish stance for tomorrow as well. Since I am holding a long position my personal preference would be to close above 20167.
#nifty"Good morning! As of September 14th, there is no significant difference between the last session. Global market sentiment is neutral, based on the Dow Jones alone. The market trend is moderately bullish, and there is a possibility that the market might open with a neutral to slightly bullish gap. Structurally, we are in a ranging market, so we could wait for a breakout from this range. If the range breaks, we will set our target at the next resistance level. Otherwise, the range will likely continue."
#nifty"Good morning! As of September 13th, global market sentiment is neutral, based on the Dow Jones alone. The market trend is moderately bullish, and there is a possibility that the market might open with a neutral to slightly bullish gap. Structurally, we are in a ranging market, so we could wait for a breakout from this range. If the range breaks, we will set our target at the next resistance level. Otherwise, the range will likely continue."
12 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Mid Small Caps bleedingNifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow I wish to continue with the bullish stance, although I would like to take some safety net via long PUTS as we have the CPI (Inflation) data coming up this week.”
The opening 45mts saw huge profit taking, few of the candles were deep red sending out a message that it may not just be a profit taking. I usually do not check the midcap and small cap indices as their weightage rarely moves Nifty.
But seeing the aggressive price moves, I did peep into those sub indices and this is what happened.
nifty smallcap down 4.1%
midcap 150 down 2.97%
nifty metal down 2.67%
nifty energy down 2.49%
nifty next50 down 2.3%
nifty auto down 1.86%
nifty commodities down 1.85%
Usually we do not have these high aggressive moves. I even forgot the last time Nifty moved 2% intraday. The puts that I had on Nifty did appreciate in value in the opening 30 to 40mts but the fall got arrested there. So I still have those long PUT positions active for tomorrow.
The options premiums were also a bit off today, the OTMs having an unusual surge in prices - totally irrational. By around 14.45 - the options flow suggesting further downside. Whereas by 15.20, I got conflicting signals from the PE side.
I wish to just wait and watch for tomorrow and not get into an aggressive long position until Nifty50 has consolidated at the current levels. I wish to modify my stance to neutral from bullish. If we break the 19870 levels tomorrow - I wish to go short (bearish).
#nifty"Good morning! As of September 12th, There is no significant difference between the last session. Global market sentiment is positive, based on the Dow Jones alone. The market trend is bullish, and there is a possibility that the market might open with a gap-up. If the gap-up sustains, we can expect the rally to continue with minor corrections. On the other hand, if the gap-up doesn't hold, we can anticipate a minor correction."
11 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - @20000 a day to remember 🎇🎇Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: For Monday I wish to change the status from bullish to 50% bullish & 50% neutral — that’s because I would like to wait for this news flow to get priced in. The euphoria and FOMO alone should drive Nifty50 to new ATHs, however I do not wish to get into new bullish positions till then.
The 50% neutral, 50% bullish stance was taken to give some time for the traders to digest the I-CRR news. Seems like nobody was interested to wait. As soon as we opened - the intention to go up was very clear - how so? Just look at the OTM put prices. All the signs of aggressive put writing with near ATM credit and far OTM debit. Since this pattern was holding throughout the day, I personally went ahead with some long positions.
In today’s price action, there were no reversal or pullback attempts and all the sectors were in green - a rarity usually. And as per DOW theory - if all the sectors are in green - its a true indicator of trend.
On the 1hr TF - just notice the pace at which Nifty50 regained the lost points. It took 42 days and 1hr for Nifty to fall from 19991 to 19223 and just 10 days & 6 hrs to regain it. Which also indicates its a structural bull market.
For tomorrow I wish to continue with the bullish stance, although I would like to take some safety net via long PUTS as we have the CPI (Inflation) data coming up this week.
#nifty"Good morning! As of September 11th, global market sentiment is slightly positive, based on the Dow Jones alone. The market trend is bullish, and there is a possibility that the market might open with a slight gap-up. If the gap-up sustains, we can expect the rally to continue with minor corrections. On the other hand, if the gap-up doesn't hold, we can anticipate a minor correction."
08 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty + discontinuation of I-CRR newsNifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday “On the 1hr TF the W pattern worked out quite good. The next 2 resistance points will be 19786 and 19852 if we are continuing the breakout rally. If we were to fall the first support will be the resistance we just broke i.e. 19678 followed by 19581. For tomorrow I wish to continue my bullish stance unless the first support of 19678 is taken out in the first 2 hours.”
Let the chart not deceive you, we really went up 142pts ~ 0.72% from the low to the high and today’s low was still above yesterday’s close. Since the chart was set to “Auto” resolution on “Log” scale - the up move may not look that much.
What an impressive rally today, I assume most of the analysts would have switched their bias to the long side after yesterday’s show. Today’s outperformance was quite predictable still the near ATM call options had a humongous price swing. Option premiums usually rise when the uncertainty goes up - and seeing the rally today the price jumps in 20100, 20200, 20300 & 20500 were more than unusual. 20100 CE which closed for 5.45 yesterday opened at 6.5 and rallied upto 13.5 ~ 248% before closing at 9.35.
We took out the first resistance point by 11.15 today and touched the 2nd resistance point by 14.15 to only close lower. The 2 resistance points are highlighted in orange horizontal lines.
I was feeling quite carried away that the technical analysis was working exactly as in the script. Nifty falling in a bearish channel from 21st July and then breaking out from 1st Sep. Just today I realized the real reason behind this is the I-CRR news flow - read here. Remember the fall started when the RBI Governor announced the 10% increment in CRR in his last MPC address. Now there is news that 75% of it might be removed immediately. This was the reason the banks started rallying all of a sudden from 2pm on 6th Sep. Do you recollect the article I wrote about HDFCBK being the lone wolf fighting for banknifty?
Now you might have understood how a 41% weightage on BankNifty can make a lot of difference.
For Monday I wish to change the status from bullish to 50% bullish & 50% neutral - that's because I would like to wait for this news flow to get priced in. The euphoria and FOMO alone should drive Nifty50 to new ATHs, however I do not wish to get into new bullish positions till then.
#nifty"Good morning! As of September 8th, the global market sentiment is slightly positive, based on the Dow Jones alone. The market trend is bullish, and there is a possibility that the market might open with a slight gap-up. If the gap-up sustains, we can expect the rally to continue with minor corrections. On the other hand, if the initial market experiences sharp declines and reaches yesterday's minor high, that's a sign of a trend reversal."
07 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Super rally in last 90 mtsNifty Weekly Analysis
You may not believe that Nifty has added 444pts ~ 2.31% between the last expiry and today. The bulk of the moves came on 1st Sep and then today.
On the weekly timeframe Nifty just broke out from the bullish flag consolidation formation signalling further fire power ahead. Will the global markets play spoilsport is the only question here.
Nifty Today Analysis
Recap from yesterday “Also the 14.15 green candle negates the 5 prior red candles creating a bullish ambience. For tomorrow, I wish to continue the bullish stance and the first target in sight would be to take out the next swing level of 19678.”
It was not a surprise that when I posted the bullish view on tradingview minds this morning, I got a -4 downvote. Almost all the analysts were looking for bearish opportunities on Nifty and BankNifty and the opening moves would have given the illusion of downfall. We fell 71pts ~ 0.36% by 09.35 enough for most to go short and that too on expiry day.
What happened after that was a reclamation of 19600 levels by Nifty, we even hit a new swing high of 19642 at 11.15. And honestly I thought thats it - we will consolidate sideways and end the day around those levels.
I was totally surprised when Nifty rallied 144pts ~ 0.74% between 11.40 to 14.35. In fact I had 2 bullish CE long positions that I exited prematurely at a small profit. If I knew Nifty had more firepower to take out the 19700 today - I would have hung on to it & made a fortune 🙂
From a weekly expiry standpoint - the options premium near ATM and far OTM were real pathetic. Something that I realized today is that when we had BankNifty & Nifty expiring together - we could jump in and out on strikes that gave max bang for bucks. Since BN is now set to expire on Wednesdays, there are no more arbitrage opportunities. If the conditions like today persist in the foreseeable future - then option selling wont be able to attract a fresh crowd.
On the 1hr TF the W pattern worked out quite good. The next 2 resistance points will be 19786 and 19852 if we are continuing the breakout rally. If we were to fall the first support will be the resistance we just broke i.e. 19678 followed by 19581. For tomorrow I wish to continue my bullish stance unless the first support of 19678 is taken out in the first 2 hours.
#nifty"Good morning! As of September 7th, there is no significant difference compared to the last session; the global market sentiment is negative (based on the Dow Jones alone). The market trend is moderately bullish, and the market might open with a neutral to slight gap-down. Structurally, it is a range-bound market, so we can expect some consolidation. We can anticipate a directional move after a major support or resistance level is breached."