07 Jun 2024 - reclaiming ATHs, saying no to SCAM accuasationsThe most viral stock market news topic is the accusation that Rahul Gandhi made on HM and FM for their speech asking people to buy stocks for June 4th. Everything would have gone well if we did not have the 8.75% crash on 4th June, because the markets did have a beautiful run up till then.
The SCAM accusation would have really made sense if we did not have the recovery on 5th, 6th and 7th, because as it stands now the markets are literally up by 3.2% as of 31st May close. I do not know if this follow up buying is actually scam version 2 or not, or is it genuine buying after markets got enough confidence from Modi 3.0.
Even if someone bought nifty50 stocks on 03 June and if they did not sell, they are relatively flat as on 7th June - even after the violent swings.
Technically we are still maintaining the bullish stance till proven wrong.
Niftyintradaytradesetup
NIFYT prediction for today 7 Jun 24As we discussed yesterday, Nifty traded in a sideways-bullish zone.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading in a Bullish sideways market zone. Price has taken support at 200 EMA, and it has also formed a double bottom, which shows the market is in consolidation mode. If it breaks the neckline, you can make a bullish entry after a retracement.
Support levels: 22640, 22267, 21850
resistance levels: 22898, 23151, 23307
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.82, which has increased from 0.63, shows a bullish sign in the market. 22800 is max-pain. On higher levels, there is much more PE writing compared to lower-side PE writing.
VIX has also decreased significantly, which indicates volatility is being controlled.
I am expecting the market:
Case 1 : Sideways in range of 22640-22898
Case 2 : On either side, it breaks to the upside. We can target the 23000 level.
Reason:
RSI > 60 shows a bullish structure.
Price > EMA(13, 50, 200), which indicates a Bullishmarket structure.
PCR = 0.82 has risen from 0.63 and shows signs of bullishness.
Price > VWAP shows a Bullish market structure.
Verdict: Sideways in range of 22640-22898. bullish if it breaks 22898 to the upside.
Plan of action:
Case 1 : Sideways: Sell 22650 PE & 22900 CE (Hedge it with 20/- premium options)
Case 2 : Exit 22900 CE if the market breaks to the upside.
Nifty Support & Resistance Levels for 07.06.2024Nifty stayed inside the 15-minute resistance/supply zone mentioned yesterday. Currently, Nifty is above the important level of 61.8% retracement (of the last swing) at 22,553, which is a positive sign. If Nifty can sustain this level, we might see further upward movement.
Support Levels:
Near Support Zone (75m): 22,213 - 22,372
Far Support Zone (Daily): 21,137 - 21,459 (remains the same)
Far Support Zone (Daily): 20,769 - 20,950
Resistance Levels:
Intraday Resistance Zone (15m): 22,643 - 22,881 (remains the same)
Major Resistance/Supply Zone (Daily): 23,062 - 23,338.70
#Nifty directions and levels for June 7th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the directions for June 7th:
The global market maintains a moderately bullish sentiment based on the Dow Jones, and our local market also follows a moderately bullish trend. Today, the market may open neutrally, as indicated by GiftNifty, which shows a decrease of 8 points.
Both Nifty and BankNifty share the same sentiment today. Let's first look at the Nifty chart.
Nifty has consolidated around the 78% Fibonacci level. Structurally, we can expect the rally to continue if it breaks the previous high. For more clarity, there is a sub-wave five, which is a distribution wave and might have lower volume. If this occurs, the supply zone will act as strong resistance. However, if the initial breakout at 78% has a solid structure, the rally will continue with minor consolidation around the supply zone. This is our first scenario.
The alternative scenario suggests that if the market initially takes a correction, the range market may continue. Typically, the range market corrects only to the 38% level, so if it finds support there, we can expect a pullback wave. Conversely, if the correction reaches the 38% Fibonacci level with a solid structure, the correction may continue further with some consolidation.
06 June 2024 - Nifty above 22781 resistance, slightly bullishOver the last 1 week, Nifty is up only 1.33% ~ 300pts, but we witnessed one of the most violent weeks in the last 4 years. Primarily because the exit polls overshot the expectations which gave a gap up of 3.5% ~ 792pts and then the actual polls came less than expected and this ensured we had a brutal fall of 2062pts ~ 8.84%.
Once the dust settled, we retraced the lost ground yesterday and closed at the same levels as 31st May. Today was a decent day, but not without volatility. For some reason or the other, I did not participate in the expiry day trading today, and was more than happy to just watch than do.
My forecast for today was a neutral day, but we ended up having a trending day. We rose 201pts ~ 0.89% to close just above the 22781 resistance. Most of you would have seen the Fibonacci retracement levels drawn on the chart yesterday, seems like we are respecting those levels today also - but the resistance cut through is prompting us to change the stance to bullish. The next target would obviously be to take out the ATH.
All eyes now would be on the oath ceremony wherein Narendra Modi may be crowned the PM for a historic third term. Read a whatsapp forward that he was Pradhan Manthri for the 2 terms and will be a Pradhan Man-three this time as the coalition is held by 2 other parties TDP and JDU.
Nifty Support & Resistance Levels for 06.06.2024Nifty gained more than 3% yesterday and closed near the 15-minute resistance zone mentioned in the last post. If it breaks above 22,900, we might see selling pressure at the daily resistance zone starting at 23,062.
Support Levels:
Intraday Support Zone (15m): 21,944 - 22,076
Near Support (Daily): 21,137 - 21,459 (remains the same)
Far Support (Daily): 20,769 - 20,950
Resistance Levels:
Intraday Resistance Zone (15m): 22,643 - 22,881
Major Resistance/Supply Zone (Daily): 23,062 - 23,338.70
05 Jun 2024 - Nifty50 Reversal or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement?No, I am not denying the credit to Nifty50 to have rallied 735pts ~ 3.36% to have a beautiful green today. I just drew the Fibonacci levels from the peak point of 3rd June and the bottom-most level of Jun 04 - the results are in front of you.
23.6% levels @ 21796 had some action
38.2% levels @ 22091 (quite near my 22051 SR level) had a stronger action
50% levels @ 22329 (quite near my 22295 levels) also had significant touchpoints
61.8% levels @ 22567 (quite near my 22519 levels) is where we closed today
I would not prefer to change my stance to bullish yet. The best I could think of is to go neutral and see how these levels are holding up for the next 1 week. The resistance of 22781 may be the game changer according to me.
And honestly, we are back at the levels just before the exit poll results. 3 violent moves would have shaken out a sizeable crowd of traders. It takes courage to even hang-on.
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow 6 Jun 24NIFTY gave a really big bullish moment today. It's still an effect, and the market boomed 700+ points.
If we look at the chart now:
The market gave really big momentum to the upside. The market is trading above EMA, which shows that the market is really bullish right now. There is also a bullish EMA(13, 50) crossover, which indicates that the market is in a bullish phase now.
Support levels: 22246, 21850, and 21293
resistance levels: 22640, 22832, 23151
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.61, which has increased from 0.53, shows a bullish sign in the market. There is no such max-pain Market that is clearly bullish. There is only good CE writing at 23000, which is going to provide a huge resistance.
VIX has also decreased significantly, which indicates volatility is being controlled.
I am expecting the market:
Case 1 : Sideways in range of 22253-22640
Case 2 : On either side, it breaks to either side's trade accordingly.
Reason:
RSI > 60 shows a bullish structure.
Price > EMA(13, 50, 200), which indicates a Bullishmarket structure.
PCR = 0.63 has risen from 0.53 and shows signs of bullishness.
Price > VWAP shows a Bullish market structure.
Verdict: Sideways in range of 22253-22640. and Volatile on either side, it breaks.
Plan of action:
Case 1 : Sideways: Sell 22250 PE & 22650 CE (Hedge it with 20/- premium options)
Case 2 : Exit the opposite position on either side. It breaks.
04 Jun 2024- Nifty almost hit the lower circuit ~ 10% intradayWhat a strange day it has been, the moment the market participants realized that BJP will not get a simple majority - we started falling. That realization came in the opening minutes and did not give me ample time to prepare.
Honestly, I did not expect such a move today. I really thought we would have the reaction on Wednesday instead. I was not really ready with my short position and to be frank, I lost almost 5 lakhs as opportunity cost today.
Nifty ended up negating the last 172 days of upmove, in the single daily candle of today. It is like watching your building collapse, something that you took 6 months to build.
Interestingly the reversal came at the 200 EMA and not at 21491. If you notice my chart, I do not have a support/resistance level between 21491 and 19855 - if we break that tomorrow, it is going to be a free-fall.
Stance updated to bearish till proven wrong.
Current, NDA 291, INDIA 234, Others 18.
Nifty50 ( 31st May) 1/2Hourly closing below 22584 -- 22609 will be 🐻 📉 📉 to 22428 and 22280
22280 could test within 3rd June
Any closing sustains above 22609 in hourly then 📈 📈
Disclaimer:
It's a personal view not a financial advice and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 3 May 2024| Loksabha Trading ViewNIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 3 May 2024
Bullish-Above 22660
Invalid-Below 22600
T- 22120 23417
NIFTY has closed on a bearish note last week with 1.86% last cut. Since the coming week is very due to Loksabha election results. As per the exit polls market looks all set for a fresh ATH. Directional move will be seen on Monday in the upside and there can be IV crush on Tuesday and the next day also then again a rally is very much possible. So it looks safe to sell non-directional only after news is out i.e result day.
Coming to Monday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 22660 then we will long for the target of 23120 and 23417.
Chances of a big gap up is high, so one can trade on 10 o'clock range breakout for a precise entry with risk calculated with previous swing after breakout.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout.
==========
I am Not SEBI Registered
This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.
31 May 2024 - Stance changed to neutral, all eyes on exit pollNifty was unable to break the 22519 support, the entire day we spent hovering around this support resistance level - but the sheer inability to break shows the lack of strength of the Bears.
I would have maintained the bearish stance if we had at least 1 candle below this level. Currently, the next support level is at 22295 and the resistance level is at 22781.
All eyes are on the exit polls now, to be frank - technical analysis won't work when there is news flow and there is no way to predict what is coming next.
To be honest, I am not aware if BJP will get the number of seats they had in mind or if we have a coalition govt or not. Personally, I prefer not to predict but take some aggressive positions once a clue appears.
My expectations for markets next week, post election results
1. 400+ seats - up 5%+
2. 270 to 399 seats - down 5 to 10%
3. less than 270 seats - down 25%
I am of the impression that we may have a fall after the initial surge as a few sectors are overvalued.
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow | 3 June | MondayAs we discussed, Nifty had a sideways structure; it was sideways the whole day.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading in the range while taking good resistance at 200-EMA. The market is very volatile as VIX is 24.60. the market is trading in the range 22465 - 22639. If we look at the last two candles, it is a huge volume from the support zone as well as selling from the resistance zone.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.76, which has fallen from 0.53, shows a market bullish structure. 22500 is going to be MaxPain. 23000 is very Hard resistance with heavy CE writing.
I am expecting:
Case 1 : Sideways in the range 22465 - 22639.
Case 2 : If the market breaks 22465 to the downside or if the market breaks the upside, it will be bullish.
Reasons:
RSI < 50 shows a weak bull strength.
Price < EMA(13, 50, 200), which indicates a bearish market.
The market has formed a lower high lower low structure in 15-min TH that indicates the market is bearish unless the market tends to form a Higher-High.
PCR = 0.76 indicates neutral market behavior.
Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market.
Verdict: Sideways in range also can break to either side.
Plan of action :
Case 1: Sideways: Sell 22450 PE & 22650 CE (Hedge it with 40/-)
Case 2: Exit the loss-making leg once it breaks the channel.
#Nifty Directions and Levels for May31st.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the directions for May 31st:
The global market continues to show a bearish sentiment based on the Dow Jones, while our local market also shows a bearish trend. Today, the market may open with a slight gap-down, as indicated by GiftNifty, which shows a decrease of 25 points.
Nifty and Banknifty moved in different paths in the last session. What about today? I think it may continue a little bit. OK, let's look at the Nifty chart first.
Even though Nifty fell, it had a solid pullback in the last half hour, so even if the market opens with a gap-down, it may try to bounce back initially because the structures suggest that. If this happens, we can expect a range market between the 38% upside resistance and the previous low. if it happens, the second half might enter a correction phase. but This is not necessary, is our first variation.
The alternate scenario suggests that if the initial market takes a solid pullback and reaches the 38% Fib level, we can try a breakout entry that may reach the 50% Fib level. If this happens, it could retrace a little bit and continue consolidating further. However, if it breaks 50% after the consolidation, we can expect a rally continuation.
30 May 2024 - Nifty did not break the 22519 decisively, bearish Over the last 1 week, Nifty hits a new ATH of 23110 and falls 3% ~ 693pts. On a week-2-week basis, we have only fallen 395pts ~ 1.72%. What is more important is that we have started a nice reversal, what needs to be seen is if we get a stronger fall this time.
On every other occasion, the dip buyers emerged and ensured our indices were continuing the one-way trip i.e. upwards. Usually, every bull run will have a healthy correction, but in our case - we never even had a decent fall.
Yesterday we went short on Nifty and stayed neutral on BankNifty. Quite happy to see those trades went quite well. Nifty went all the way down to 22417 before retracing the support level of 22519 to close above. If we closed below 22519 today - it would have given a lot of confidence to the bears.
Nevertheless, our view still remains bearish for Nifty and neutral for BankNifty. The real momentum should pick up once BN also joins N50 by breaking its support of 48661.
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 31 May 24As we discussed, Nifty had a bearish structure; It has fallen by 287 points.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading in the bearish zone below 200 EMA. The market has taken support from the 0.50 Fib level while making a Morningstar pattern with a very nice volume spike. Price is trading below EMAs, showing a weak bull structure.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.53, which has fallen from 0.63, shows a market bearish structure. 22500 is going to be MaxPain. There is significantly more CE writing than PE writing, which shows that, right now, big players are just pushing the market to the downside.
I am expecting:
Case 1: Inside the Orange trendline, the market is going to be sideways in the range 22465-22613.
Case 2: If the market breaks 22465 to the downside, we might see more bearishness to lower levels of 22200.
Reasons:
RSI < 40 falling from the upside shows a good bearish strength.
RSI showing Bullish divergence.
Price < EMA(13,200), which indicates a bearish market.
The market has formed a lower high lower low structure in 15-min TH that indicates the market is bearish unless the market tends to form a Higher-High.
PCR = 0.53 indicates huge bearishness.
Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market.
The market is making Morningstar star, which might force the market to hold the 22465 level.
Verdict: Bearish or Sideways
Plan of action :
Case 1: Sideways: Sell 22450 PE & 22650 CE (Hedge it with 30/-)
Case 2: Bearish: 22400 CE (Hedge it with 30/- CE) if the market continues bearish momentum.
Nifty50 ( 30th May ) 1/3If next hourly candle closes below 22582 -- 22589 then more 📉 📉 could be possible to below levels marked on the chart
If closing sustains above 22589 then SL hunting 📈 to 22689 and if it sustains above then will post upside targets
22280 and 22100 levels could test within 4th June
Disclaimer :
It's a personal view not a financial advice and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.
#Nifty Directions and levels for May 30th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the directions for May 30th:
The global market continues to show a bearish sentiment based on the Dow Jones, while our local market also shows a bearish trend. Today, the market may open with a slight gap-down, as indicated by GiftNifty, which shows a decrease of 70 points.
But, I'm not sure if this is due to global issues or contract rollover with GiftNifty. Anyway, let's look at the Nifty direction.
Nifty has fallen with some minor swings. If the market opens with a gap-down, then the 38% Fibonacci level might act as a strong support. If it finds support there, then we can expect a pullback of 23 to 38% max. It could be a minor retracement, and if it gets rejected there, then the correction will likely continue. On the other hand, if the pullback structure has a solid candle formation, it might break the 38% Fibonacci level(upside). If it breaks, then we can expect 50 to 61% for the next target. If we want to state this more clearly, it may turn into a range between the upcoming low and the 61% Fibonacci level. This sentiment is also applicable for a neutral to gap-up situation because, as I mentioned, I don't know exactly why GiftNifty is showing a negative sentiment.
The alternative scenario is if the gap-down sustains and breaks the immediate support with some consolidation or immediately, then the correction will likely continue.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 30 May 2024NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 30 May 2024
Bullish-Above 22810
Invalid-Below 22760
T- 23000
Bearish-Below 22680
Invalid-Above 22730
T- 22480
NIFTY has closed on a bearish note with 0.8% cut today. It was a low volatility day as overall range it traded was 22800 and 22700. It opened with a decent gap down of 125 points and in this case 10 o'clock range was to be used. Range broke downside below 22760 and gave 50 points move which was 1:1. Tomorrow if there is another gap down then I will watch for the 1st 5 Min candle's breakout either side.
Coming to Thursday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 22810 then we will long for the target of 23000.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 22680. T- 22485.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout.
==========
I am Not SEBI Registered
This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.
29 May 2024 - 22781 broken and we just went bearishOver the last 2 sessions, we tried to explain why we would have to go directly to bearish from bullish. One of the reasons was that we fell below the level that had 2 double tops in April & May. Secondly, there were no additional support/resistance points in between for a neutral zone.
What I am not sure about is, whether we can continue the downward momentum, especially because June 4th is less than a week away. If BJP wins back the 3rd time, the markets should outperform. If they get a lower number of seats - we may lose a lot of ground.
Hope my direction is right just in time, over the last 5 to 6 months, my directional strategies were just eating the dirt and bleeding RED. I am also quite aware that a move of 1000+ points could level the mounted losses.
For tomorrow we wish to start with a bearish tone and go long if 22781 is breached in the 63mts TF.
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 30 May As we discussed, Nifty had a bearish structure; It has fallen by 187 points.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading in the bearish zone. The market is trading near the 0.38 fib level, which might provide a good support zone. But I am expecting the market to further go down till fib 0.50 (22481) levels. All the important levels have been marked on the chart.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.65 shows a market bearish structure. As tomorrow is NIFTY expiry, 22700 is going to provide a max-pain. There is more call writing on higher levels than PE writing on lower levels. The market is likely to end near 22500.
Looking at the data, NIFTY might go bearish till 200 EMA. .
Reasons:
RSI < 40 falling from the upside shows a good bearish strength.
EMA(13) > Price > EMA(200), which indicates an indecisive or rather sideways market.
The market has formed a lower high lower low structure in 15-min TH that indicates the market is bearish.
PCR = 0.65 indicates bearishness.
Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market.
Verdict: Bearish
Plan of action : 22700 CE (Hedge it with 10/-) if the market continues bearish momentum.
Note: you can target 200 EMA targets.