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Nifty on Radar - Weekly Review | 18 MayWeekly Marubozu bullish candle piercing the STMA band. 22800 could be tested, if broken then we have 23000+ levels and the potential target is 23800 on the projection scale. According to the volume profile the level of 22050 could act as a strong support and according to chart structure the support is 21800. For momentum reading the resistance is 22600. Disclaimer: This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ssvirdi
16 May 2024–Stance upgraded to Bullish, Crazy 377pts intraday⬆️Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "The good thing for the bulls was the fall ended at 10.27, for the remainder of the day we went into a small range bound trade. The final close was flat at -0.08%." We started today right at the resistance level of 22295 and then started falling. We went below yesterday's low and took interim support at 22119 levels. From there the bounce took us to 22295 again by 12.19 and this time the rejection was stronger and it ensured we fell to the next support level of 22051. What happened then was totally unbelievable, right at that level the rejection ensured we were retracing 377pts ~ 1.71% in 1 hour. Just crazy, unbelievable price action - normally we see that during news/event flows. 13 consecutive green candles, 15 out of 16 candles in green - just magical statistics. On the 63mts TF, just look at the size of the 63mts candle - simply wow. Our stance is now bullish with the next target being 22519. If we are falling, we need to go below 22295 for a neutral stance and 22051 for a bearish outlook. The algos were in deep loss today, courtesy of the fast & furious moves in the last 90mts. The forward test algo shows a profit of 2475, but the actual execution was in deep red due to slippages.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
14 May 2024–Nifty gets steam, is it short covering or fresh longNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: "The recovery was more than fast and furious, it even took out the 22051 resistance level. This nudged me to change the stance from bearish to neutral just for tomorrow." Nifty started the day inline and then started climbing almost steadily. There were no visible drops, pullbacks, or attempts by the Bears to push down the prices. The decision to change the stance from bearish to neutral yesterday paid off. At this point, I am not quite sure if it's the short covering or build-up of new long positions that is taking the markets higher. I am hard-guessing it should be a short covering. The moment we get past 22295, we will be forced to go long. On the higher time frame, N50 has held on to the 21913 pretty strongly reinforcing the IH&S pattern (earlier). This could be read along with the new double bottom (W pattern) that is forming which shows the strength of the support level. Nifty Algos ended the day with gains of 5625 INR
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
10 May 2024 - Inability to take out the 22051 resistance - BEARSNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: "On the higher timeframe, N50 has made a massive double top, see the black dotted line. If it materializes, it could even be a real shocker to the bulls out there. Just like we discussed this week, if 21913 is getting taken out, the inverse H&S pattern will get negated." Nifty was unable to take out the immediate resistance of 22051 conclusively although we stayed above these levels between 09.47 to 10.47 and then between 11.11 and 11.35. The inability to break out is some validation for the Bears to continue exerting the pressure. On the 63mts TF, the bearishness continues. The next target of 21913 is still in our watchlist and if we fall below that - the real action begins. #Nifty50 algo ended up generating Rs10912 today.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
08 May 2024 - Nifty defends 22295, but not going neutral yetNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: "Also in the 63mts TF we did not really break it, if you are a conservative trader, it is a good idea to wait for one full candle to form below 22295." Today the entire action was around the 22295 levels. The open was a gap down and N50 spent time till 11.47 underwater. The 22295 level was broken by 12.07 and we went up 183pts ~ 0.83% from the intraday low to the intraday high. The upside was limited and we started falling. Two RED candles i.e. 13.35 & 13.47 stood out which brought N50 back below water. On a closing basis, N50 finished the day above 22295 at 22302. Ideally, I should change the stance from bearish to neutral, but let me give the benefit of the doubt to the Bears for one more day. We did not get a full candle below 22295 on the higher TF. If we do not break 22295 in tomorrow's session, I may be inclined to change the stance back to neutral. Nifty algos made 15052 INR today. MTM went into losses between 12.22 to 13.00 - but the system recovered well in the later part of the day.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
Dabur Long Term TargetsThis is a Weekly chart. Here are some observations: 1. Price has been in a downtrend since Oct 2021 forming a large cup potentially finishing around Jun 2025 with neckline at ₹650 2. The red trendline still has to be broken to officially get into the uptrend 3. The recent green trendline has been breached following the healthy Quarterly results posted yesterday 4. Price has touched levels of 500 multiple times suggesting it to be a strong support zone 5. Multiple resistance levels on the way up particularly at 565, 600 and 650. All of them can be used as short term targets as well 6. Final target at 800 based on the cup (500 to 650) Growth Drivers: 1. Economy has faced high inflation in recent times reflecting in the downtrend of stock performance 2. Consumer companies are reporting rural uptick in sales 3. Global consensus of rate cuts in 2024/2025 4. India’s growing population and per capita income Verdict: Considering both the macroeconomic factors and the fundamental/technical combination of Dabur, it seems like it has bottomed out at around 500 and is ready for the uptrend likely to hit ₹800 in the coming years. A handle formation is likely at ₹650, so the earnings have to be tracked closely. Happy trading!
NSE:DABURLong
by tej_s9
2
06 May 2024 - Indian markets have decoupled from Global peersNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: "The stance has been revised to neutral as the support is broken. For Monday we wish to go neutral if 22295 is broken and go long if 22519. Nifty Algos ended the day with a loss of -2374 INR." How do we explain the relevance of support and resistance more clearly than today? Just see the 3 encircled regions on the 4mts chart. The first one came in the opening minutes where the gap-up gave the impression that we were breaking out but the 09.35 and 09.39 candles did the humbling. Between 10.39 to 11.11, N50 recovered a bit and tried to get past the 22519 resistance, only to fail. And the 3rd attempt came between 11.59 to 12.19 - which would have given some confidence to the Bears. On the higher time frame, we are still in neutral territory and might require a bit more aggression by the Bears to bring down the prices. Our markets not rallying as against the recovery in US markets - speculating something to do with the re-election and taxation. Since I do not have any data points, will wait for more clarity. Decided to add the screenshots of AlgoTest forward testing instead of live to stay away from regulatory troubles. Nifty Algo generated Rs2857 today.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
03 May 2024 - Nifty Stance revised to neutral, a support brokenNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow, we wish to maintain the bullish stance, but the first test would be the ATH which would otherwise act as a triple top. The moment we get past that, I could remove the M pattern drawn for the period 05 to 12th April." Nifty hit a new ATH @ 22794.7, but it did not sustain and soon we gave up the lead. The fall was so intense that we lost the 22519 support today. The final closing was at 22475 (weighted closing). What mattered more was the fall of 446pts ~ 1.96% intraday, by the nature of the fall one thing is clear - it is not just because of weakness. Global markets are not that weak, I strongly suspect this is related to the TAX expectations post elections. FIIs are continuing to sell, which would be a worry, after all, if the taxes are getting hiked - no one would want to park the risk money here, even if they get above average returns. The stance has been revised to neutral as the support is broken. For Monday we wish to go neutral if 22295 is broken and go long if 22519. Nifty Algos ended the day with a loss of -2374 INR.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
02 May 2024 - Nifty has to get past the ATH to negate M patternNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "The 63mts TF paints another picture, a perfect triple top at the 22780 levels. A double top between 9th and 10th April and the third top today on 30th April." Nifty opened quite strongly, immediately recouping some of the lost ground in the last session. After cutting almost 50% of the losses, N50 found a stable level and then maintained its narrow range. Fearful of stop loss hunting, I squared off the Algo straddles at 13.16 and in hindsight, it proved to be a stupid decision. Although I made 18732 INR, another 23200 was forgone. I do not know about the Jane Street Algo strategies, but it has really elevated the premiums in near ATM strikes. In a way, it is good for option-selling as risk:reward is increasing especially on the expiry day. For tomorrow, we wish to maintain the bullish stance, but the first test would be the ATH which would otherwise act as a triple top. The moment we get past that, I could remove the M pattern drawn for the period 05 to 12th April.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
#Nifty directions and levels for April30th.Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for April 30th: The global market is still maintaining a moderately bearish trend, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment indicates a bullish trend. It might open with a neutral to slightly gap-up start, as suggested by GiftNifty, showing an increase of +20. Structurally, Nifty doesn't have that much of a bullish sentiment. It's maintaining the bullish bias supported by the BankNifty. So, if the initial market rejects, we can expect a minimum correction of 38 to 50%. After that, if it finds support, it may undergo a range-bound structure. On the other hand, if it consolidates around 50%, then the correction will likely continue. An alternate variation indicates that if the gap-up sustains and breaks the supply zone, then we can expect rally continuation with minor consolidation at the immediate resistance level.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
29 Apr 2024 - Nifty resolves on the upside stance is Bullish nowNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "For Monday, we will go short if 22295 is taken out and will go long if 22519 is taken out." Nifty started with a gap-up, then came down to close the gap. Once we hit the previous close level, magically Nifty50 got real strength and then started climbing. Nifty gained a total of 213 points ~ 0.95% to not only break out from 22159 but to reinstate its bullish position.  We are now very close to the ATH and once we take out that, we can safely remove the double top pattern. The indices are always resolving to the upside and it has been such a deadly journey for the Bears. Seems like they are facing an existential crisis. Bears will go extinct before Tigers in India. Nifty50 algos today ended the day with losses of -19644 INR.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
10 Apr - Falling VIX, Rising Markets and Lower UncertaintyNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow also we are continuing our bullish view and would like to go neutral if we get a close below 22615" Nifty had a gap up opening and was stuck in a narrow range till 13.11 after which it picked up decent momentum. Nifty almost gained 101 points from the intraday low to take out the previous highs. The new ATH is now 22775. In the final 30 minutes, we gave away some gains but Nifty50 closed the day with a total gain of 111pts ~ 0.49% Just when we thought the momentum was fading, N50 managed to climb 100+ points and hit new highs. What is more interesting is that the US CPI (Inflation) data came hotter than expected. As I write this article, SPX, NDQ, and DJI are down over 1.1%. A spillover effect is definite but because we have a holiday tomorrow, we might have another day of US stock market action left to react. We wish to maintain our bullish stance and go neutral if we get a close below the 22689 levels.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
26 Mar ’24 — Scary opening minutes and broken support at closeNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “The support of 22051 will be crucial and N50 has to defend it if we wish to go bullish.” 4mts chart No one would really believe it if we said Nifty50 had an opening low of 21947 i.e. 133 points below the last session close. Well, it was just a blip and we quickly regained the 222051 support/resistance level. From 09.19 to 14.31 Nifty was hovering around this zone with no particular intent to go up or down. In the last hour, Nifty made a quick fall of 50+ points went to 22000, and then closed there. The good thing is that we did not retest the opening lows again and the bad thing is that the momentum we had on the last working day is almost gone. We drew an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on the 22nd. If that holds true, we should be getting some assistance tomorrow or the 28th If N50 is unable to rally despite the IH&S pattern we will quickly change our priority to a small triple top that is forming and go bearish if 21913 support also fails. Tomorrow we wish to maintain our neutral stance. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
21 Mar ’24 — Nifty goes from bearish to neutral, thanks to SPX Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Momentum is a great thing in technical analysis, the trend starts only when the momentum is in favor because if things stay as it is — markets will recover.” 4mts chart Whatever trap was set up by the Bears, it was busted open today with the gap-up. We opened 167 points ~ 0.76% ensuring we are opening right above the resistance 21913. And that also meant we had to change the stance from bearish to neutral. We discussed how the weak hands and the short covering they create spoil the entire trap. See what happened with the 22051 resistance too, there were 2 strong green candles - 10.03 and 10.07 that would have given the feeling that we are breaking this zone also. If the bear market is still in play, we will reverse sharply tomorrow. On the higher time frame, we created an island day, thanks to the gap-up. Momentum is still something Nifty50 was not able to find so far, mainly because follow-up buying or selling was just not there. Even in the small bearish phase we had, BankNifty’s lack of participation meant our run would be cut short. To resume the downtrend we have to break the swing low i.e. fall below 21690 and we hope if that happens the momentum will kick start. To go long we need to go above 22295 as soon as possible. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram