Nifty Swing Trade Levels Long/ShortNifty is currently trading at 25,856 and is down 1.23% as of today
- Nifty has a bullish Fair Value Gap of 25,600 and that might soon get filled
- Nifty was printing highs back to back and this euphoric rally had to fade off hence the bloodbath
- As long as the market structure stays intact and doesn't shift the bias will remain bullish
- Don't be a perma bull as well or try to find long setups in every dips accept the structure and don't do anything against it
Niftylong
#NIFTY OUTLOOK 29/07/2024NIFTY is now level at an all-time high that nobody imagined after the budget market behaved as this market participant has a strongly bullish view there is now an open target level. I think the market move forward to 25000 and we see a new rally of making a new all-time high every day otherwise, we see some corrections a little bit
L E V E L S:-
SUPPORT- 24650, 24500
RESISTANCE- OPEN
Nifty is looking Bullish and can hit 23900 and 24600Reason for Going Long in Nifty:
Wave Analysis:
Nifty is rising gradually in a 12345 wave pattern after a quick crash on June 4th. Wave 4th was a time-wise correction and spent one week in a small range.
Target:
The 127% Fibonacci level is our first target. If Wave 5 extends, we can aim for 24600 too.
Stop Loss:
We will exit the long position if a 1-hour candle closes below the Ichimoku Tenkan-sen (TS) and Kijun-sen (KS), which is around 23450.
If prices closes below 23400 then we have to recount it as a wave B and we can go for a Wave C down move.
Weekly and Monthly Fib channels also suggesting long.
Disclaimer: We are not SEBI registered. The content presented here is based on our personal opinions. Conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
05 Jun 2024 - Nifty50 Reversal or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement?No, I am not denying the credit to Nifty50 to have rallied 735pts ~ 3.36% to have a beautiful green today. I just drew the Fibonacci levels from the peak point of 3rd June and the bottom-most level of Jun 04 - the results are in front of you.
23.6% levels @ 21796 had some action
38.2% levels @ 22091 (quite near my 22051 SR level) had a stronger action
50% levels @ 22329 (quite near my 22295 levels) also had significant touchpoints
61.8% levels @ 22567 (quite near my 22519 levels) is where we closed today
I would not prefer to change my stance to bullish yet. The best I could think of is to go neutral and see how these levels are holding up for the next 1 week. The resistance of 22781 may be the game changer according to me.
And honestly, we are back at the levels just before the exit poll results. 3 violent moves would have shaken out a sizeable crowd of traders. It takes courage to even hang-on.
28 May 2024 - Still Bullish on Nifty, 22781 laxman rekhaAfter we had a slightly red day, i am not changing my stance to bearish yet. I would prefer the 22781 critical support to be taken out before going short. I still believe N50 is catching its breath after the 1100+pts run from 16th May, but the moment we fall below 22871, we are going below the previous ATHs and that could prove quite tricky.
In the last 2 instances i.e. on 10th Apr, 3rd May we had noticeable corrections - so the base case to go bearish may be profitable.
22 May 2024 - Nifty still upward looking, bullish tone continuesReliance and Infy were the major contributors to Nifty's GREEN show today. This happened at a time when the Banks were taking a huge beating. Finally, it came out good for the bulls as the 22519 resistance is now broken safely.
The next target is the ATH and then I am not quite sure how much more we can go from there. Lok Sabha election results are coming up in 2 weeks and the markets are getting prepped up for a massive one-side move.
The stance continues to be bullish above 22519.
NIFTY : The tentative stage of a market melt-up stage PROB#2.1This analysis represents a modified view of the chart analysis initially published on TradingView on March 1, building upon the insights provided in my previous assessment labeled "NIFTY : The tentative stage of a market melt-up stage in PROB#2". The modifications take into account evolving market conditions and additional data, and it is important to recognize that market dynamics can change rapidly.
Please be advised that this updated analysis is subject to inherent uncertainties and should not be considered a standalone recommendation. It is highly recommended to refer to the original assessment labeled PROB#2 for a comprehensive understanding of the initial insights. Users are encouraged to exercise caution and conduct their own research before making any trading or investment decisions based on this modified view.
Remember that trading and investing involve risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always stay informed and consider your individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance.
NIFTY and other market charts were analyzed in their raw form: THE CURRENT STAGE
In October-November 2023, NIFTY exhibited a broadening pattern. Typically, such formations, following coiling, break either upward or downward. When formed at the top, it is generally considered a reversal pattern. However, in November 2023, it broke upwards and precisely reached the target measured to the R point (maximum width between 4 and 5 in the broadening formation) in January 2024. Subsequently, I evaluated whether, after reaching target R, NIFTY would experience a significant drawdown similar to BANKNIFTY, as depicted in the chart below. This outcome is a probable result after reaching the target.
Currently, NIFTY has moved out of the pennant coil, a continuation pattern. It is expected to make a move towards the 25200 levels (measured from 4 to R pole length), approximately 14% from the breaking point of the continuation pattern. This is anticipated to be achieved within the current year.
BANKNIFTY, upon reaching the minimum range target R in the broadening formation (attained by measuring the minimum width between 1 and 2), experienced a significant pullback back into the broadening pattern, as indicated by the orange trajectory line. This is a typical outcome of broadening formations, where reaching the target forms a strong resistance (R) and encounters substantial rejection.
As of now, BANKNIFTY has formed a W pattern (dotted orange trajectory line), and the W target, approximately 4.8% towards the previous resistance, is currently in progress.
NIFTY CHART LINK:
BANKNIFTY CHART LINK:
17, 18 May 2024 - Nifty looks strong, bullish tone continues...There are a few changes to my daily postmortem report. After I started the MFD business, not getting enough time to write a detailed technical report daily.
Thought I would send the reports every day on Thursdays after the Nifty's expiry. The detailed analysis and the 4mts, 16mts, 63mts chart will be explained on my personal blog as well.
Here on Tradingview, I will continue to post daily with just the direction and a brief one-liner. You can always contact me if you need more explanation or synthesis.
17th may - Nifty defends 22295 but is unable to break 22519. Stance is still bullish.
18th may - 11.07 candle has a long tail, that went up to 22051 - quite strange though.
Targets for Monday - bullish with 22519 to be taken out. Stance will revise to neutral if 22295 is broken
Nifty on Radar - Weekly Review | 18 MayWeekly Marubozu bullish candle piercing the STMA band. 22800 could be tested, if broken then we have 23000+ levels and the potential target is 23800 on the projection scale. According to the volume profile the level of 22050 could act as a strong support and according to chart structure the support is 21800. For momentum reading the resistance is 22600.
Disclaimer: This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
16 May 2024–Stance upgraded to Bullish, Crazy 377pts intraday⬆️Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Recap from yesterday: "The good thing for the bulls was the fall ended at 10.27, for the remainder of the day we went into a small range bound trade. The final close was flat at -0.08%."
We started today right at the resistance level of 22295 and then started falling. We went below yesterday's low and took interim support at 22119 levels. From there the bounce took us to 22295 again by 12.19 and this time the rejection was stronger and it ensured we fell to the next support level of 22051.
What happened then was totally unbelievable, right at that level the rejection ensured we were retracing 377pts ~ 1.71% in 1 hour. Just crazy, unbelievable price action - normally we see that during news/event flows. 13 consecutive green candles, 15 out of 16 candles in green - just magical statistics.
On the 63mts TF, just look at the size of the 63mts candle - simply wow. Our stance is now bullish with the next target being 22519. If we are falling, we need to go below 22295 for a neutral stance and 22051 for a bearish outlook.
The algos were in deep loss today, courtesy of the fast & furious moves in the last 90mts. The forward test algo shows a profit of 2475, but the actual execution was in deep red due to slippages.
14 May 2024–Nifty gets steam, is it short covering or fresh longNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: "The recovery was more than fast and furious, it even took out the 22051 resistance level. This nudged me to change the stance from bearish to neutral just for tomorrow."
Nifty started the day inline and then started climbing almost steadily. There were no visible drops, pullbacks, or attempts by the Bears to push down the prices. The decision to change the stance from bearish to neutral yesterday paid off.
At this point, I am not quite sure if it's the short covering or build-up of new long positions that is taking the markets higher. I am hard-guessing it should be a short covering. The moment we get past 22295, we will be forced to go long.
On the higher time frame, N50 has held on to the 21913 pretty strongly reinforcing the IH&S pattern (earlier). This could be read along with the new double bottom (W pattern) that is forming which shows the strength of the support level.
Nifty Algos ended the day with gains of 5625 INR
10 May 2024 - Inability to take out the 22051 resistance - BEARSNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
Recap from yesterday: "On the higher timeframe, N50 has made a massive double top, see the black dotted line. If it materializes, it could even be a real shocker to the bulls out there. Just like we discussed this week, if 21913 is getting taken out, the inverse H&S pattern will get negated."
Nifty was unable to take out the immediate resistance of 22051 conclusively although we stayed above these levels between 09.47 to 10.47 and then between 11.11 and 11.35. The inability to break out is some validation for the Bears to continue exerting the pressure.
On the 63mts TF, the bearishness continues. The next target of 21913 is still in our watchlist and if we fall below that - the real action begins.
#Nifty50 algo ended up generating Rs10912 today.
08 May 2024 - Nifty defends 22295, but not going neutral yetNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
Recap from yesterday: "Also in the 63mts TF we did not really break it, if you are a conservative trader, it is a good idea to wait for one full candle to form below 22295."
Today the entire action was around the 22295 levels. The open was a gap down and N50 spent time till 11.47 underwater. The 22295 level was broken by 12.07 and we went up 183pts ~ 0.83% from the intraday low to the intraday high.
The upside was limited and we started falling. Two RED candles i.e. 13.35 & 13.47 stood out which brought N50 back below water. On a closing basis, N50 finished the day above 22295 at 22302. Ideally, I should change the stance from bearish to neutral, but let me give the benefit of the doubt to the Bears for one more day.
We did not get a full candle below 22295 on the higher TF. If we do not break 22295 in tomorrow's session, I may be inclined to change the stance back to neutral.
Nifty algos made 15052 INR today. MTM went into losses between 12.22 to 13.00 - but the system recovered well in the later part of the day.
Dabur Long Term TargetsThis is a Weekly chart. Here are some observations:
1. Price has been in a downtrend since Oct 2021 forming a large cup potentially finishing around Jun 2025 with neckline at ₹650
2. The red trendline still has to be broken to officially get into the uptrend
3. The recent green trendline has been breached following the healthy Quarterly results posted yesterday
4. Price has touched levels of 500 multiple times suggesting it to be a strong support zone
5. Multiple resistance levels on the way up particularly at 565, 600 and 650. All of them can be used as short term targets as well
6. Final target at 800 based on the cup (500 to 650)
Growth Drivers:
1. Economy has faced high inflation in recent times reflecting in the downtrend of stock performance
2. Consumer companies are reporting rural uptick in sales
3. Global consensus of rate cuts in 2024/2025
4. India’s growing population and per capita income
Verdict:
Considering both the macroeconomic factors and the fundamental/technical combination of Dabur, it seems like it has bottomed out at around 500 and is ready for the uptrend likely to hit ₹800 in the coming years. A handle formation is likely at ₹650, so the earnings have to be tracked closely. Happy trading!
06 May 2024 - Indian markets have decoupled from Global peersNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: "The stance has been revised to neutral as the support is broken. For Monday we wish to go neutral if 22295 is broken and go long if 22519. Nifty Algos ended the day with a loss of -2374 INR."
How do we explain the relevance of support and resistance more clearly than today? Just see the 3 encircled regions on the 4mts chart. The first one came in the opening minutes where the gap-up gave the impression that we were breaking out but the 09.35 and 09.39 candles did the humbling.
Between 10.39 to 11.11, N50 recovered a bit and tried to get past the 22519 resistance, only to fail. And the 3rd attempt came between 11.59 to 12.19 - which would have given some confidence to the Bears.
On the higher time frame, we are still in neutral territory and might require a bit more aggression by the Bears to bring down the prices. Our markets not rallying as against the recovery in US markets - speculating something to do with the re-election and taxation. Since I do not have any data points, will wait for more clarity.
Decided to add the screenshots of AlgoTest forward testing instead of live to stay away from regulatory troubles. Nifty Algo generated Rs2857 today.
Nifty50 ( 6th May )22484 -- 22504 ( No trade zone )
Hourly closing above 22504 then 📈 📈 to 22583
Closing below 22484 in any hourly 🕯 then 📉 📉 to 22389 -- 22342
marked on the chart .
Disclaimer:
Its a personal view not a financial advise and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.