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Niftylong

02 May 2024 - Nifty has to get past the ATH to negate M patternNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "The 63mts TF paints another picture, a perfect triple top at the 22780 levels. A double top between 9th and 10th April and the third top today on 30th April." Nifty opened quite strongly, immediately recouping some of the lost ground in the last session. After cutting almost 50% of the losses, N50 found a stable level and then maintained its narrow range. Fearful of stop loss hunting, I squared off the Algo straddles at 13.16 and in hindsight, it proved to be a stupid decision. Although I made 18732 INR, another 23200 was forgone. I do not know about the Jane Street Algo strategies, but it has really elevated the premiums in near ATM strikes. In a way, it is good for option-selling as risk:reward is increasing especially on the expiry day. For tomorrow, we wish to maintain the bullish stance, but the first test would be the ATH which would otherwise act as a triple top. The moment we get past that, I could remove the M pattern drawn for the period 05 to 12th April.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
#Nifty directions and levels for April30th.Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for April 30th: The global market is still maintaining a moderately bearish trend, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment indicates a bullish trend. It might open with a neutral to slightly gap-up start, as suggested by GiftNifty, showing an increase of +20. Structurally, Nifty doesn't have that much of a bullish sentiment. It's maintaining the bullish bias supported by the BankNifty. So, if the initial market rejects, we can expect a minimum correction of 38 to 50%. After that, if it finds support, it may undergo a range-bound structure. On the other hand, if it consolidates around 50%, then the correction will likely continue. An alternate variation indicates that if the gap-up sustains and breaks the supply zone, then we can expect rally continuation with minor consolidation at the immediate resistance level.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
29 Apr 2024 - Nifty resolves on the upside stance is Bullish nowNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "For Monday, we will go short if 22295 is taken out and will go long if 22519 is taken out." Nifty started with a gap-up, then came down to close the gap. Once we hit the previous close level, magically Nifty50 got real strength and then started climbing. Nifty gained a total of 213 points ~ 0.95% to not only break out from 22159 but to reinstate its bullish position.  We are now very close to the ATH and once we take out that, we can safely remove the double top pattern. The indices are always resolving to the upside and it has been such a deadly journey for the Bears. Seems like they are facing an existential crisis. Bears will go extinct before Tigers in India. Nifty50 algos today ended the day with losses of -19644 INR.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
10 Apr - Falling VIX, Rising Markets and Lower UncertaintyNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow also we are continuing our bullish view and would like to go neutral if we get a close below 22615" Nifty had a gap up opening and was stuck in a narrow range till 13.11 after which it picked up decent momentum. Nifty almost gained 101 points from the intraday low to take out the previous highs. The new ATH is now 22775. In the final 30 minutes, we gave away some gains but Nifty50 closed the day with a total gain of 111pts ~ 0.49% Just when we thought the momentum was fading, N50 managed to climb 100+ points and hit new highs. What is more interesting is that the US CPI (Inflation) data came hotter than expected. As I write this article, SPX, NDQ, and DJI are down over 1.1%. A spillover effect is definite but because we have a holiday tomorrow, we might have another day of US stock market action left to react. We wish to maintain our bullish stance and go neutral if we get a close below the 22689 levels.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
26 Mar ’24 — Scary opening minutes and broken support at closeNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “The support of 22051 will be crucial and N50 has to defend it if we wish to go bullish.” 4mts chart No one would really believe it if we said Nifty50 had an opening low of 21947 i.e. 133 points below the last session close. Well, it was just a blip and we quickly regained the 222051 support/resistance level. From 09.19 to 14.31 Nifty was hovering around this zone with no particular intent to go up or down. In the last hour, Nifty made a quick fall of 50+ points went to 22000, and then closed there. The good thing is that we did not retest the opening lows again and the bad thing is that the momentum we had on the last working day is almost gone. We drew an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on the 22nd. If that holds true, we should be getting some assistance tomorrow or the 28th If N50 is unable to rally despite the IH&S pattern we will quickly change our priority to a small triple top that is forming and go bearish if 21913 support also fails. Tomorrow we wish to maintain our neutral stance. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
21 Mar ’24 — Nifty goes from bearish to neutral, thanks to SPX Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Momentum is a great thing in technical analysis, the trend starts only when the momentum is in favor because if things stay as it is — markets will recover.” 4mts chart Whatever trap was set up by the Bears, it was busted open today with the gap-up. We opened 167 points ~ 0.76% ensuring we are opening right above the resistance 21913. And that also meant we had to change the stance from bearish to neutral. We discussed how the weak hands and the short covering they create spoil the entire trap. See what happened with the 22051 resistance too, there were 2 strong green candles - 10.03 and 10.07 that would have given the feeling that we are breaking this zone also. If the bear market is still in play, we will reverse sharply tomorrow. On the higher time frame, we created an island day, thanks to the gap-up. Momentum is still something Nifty50 was not able to find so far, mainly because follow-up buying or selling was just not there. Even in the small bearish phase we had, BankNifty’s lack of participation meant our run would be cut short. To resume the downtrend we have to break the swing low i.e. fall below 21690 and we hope if that happens the momentum will kick start. To go long we need to go above 22295 as soon as possible. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow 18 Mar 24As we have discussed in our Video, Nifty is trading at its 200 EMA in 1-H TF, which has been providing very nice support. If we look at the chart now: The market is trading at the support zone. Also, 22950 provided a nice bullish pullback twice today, which indicates 21950 to be a good support level for now. The market is trading in a Bearish Zone right now. So, avoid naked call buying. You will end up losing theta. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.80, which shows that the market is bullish. 22000 has heavy CE and PE writing. CE writing was significantly more than PE writing, which indicates 22000 will be providing nice resistance for now. Looking at the OI change market, it is sideways. Looking at the FII Data, we can say the market might open a gap-down. I am expecting the market to be sideways for 1 or 2 days. Case 1: Sideways in the range 21950 - 22050. Case 2: Bullish if the trendline breaks to the upside. Reasons: Price < EMA(13, 200) shows market is in bearish trend. Also, EMA(13) << EMA(200), which indicates the market needs some consolidation. RSI = 48, which is 40-60, indicates the market is going to be sideways. VWAP ≡ Price means the price is volume balanced. We can expect a move soon. PCR = 0.80, which shows a bullish sentiment in the market. On the other hand, the 22000 level had massive CE and PE writing. 22000 is going to provide good support and resistance here. Verdict: Sideways and Bullish. Plan of Action: Case 1: Sell 22000 CE & PE. Exit one leg if it breaks the zone. (hedge with 20/- PE) Case 2: Sell 22000 PE (hedge with 20/- PE)
NSE:NIFTY
by finnova_
14 Mar ’24 — Nifty may be forming a lower high, stance neutralNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “From the recent top of 48161, BN is falling, but yet to make a lower low or lower high. Unless the 2nd leg starts, we wouldn’t know with clarity what it has in mind. To go bearish, we need to fall below 46176 another 800pts away.” 4mts chart The day did not go as planned, firstly the selling pressure came to a full stop. Secondly, the short covering helped Nifty breach the resistance of 22051. Nifty had a swing range of 287 points today and because it took out a crucial SR, we are switching the stance from bearish to neutral. I was totally not in agreement with the trades on NiftyIT, that sector alone ended up +1.98% today. The impact of Adani stocks was standing out today, a variance of 0.22% with Sensex should prove a point. We are back to the same situation where the weak hands are holding the shorts. The first blink of green they run for cover creating a fake momentum. And then they re-enter the shorts at a lower level losing more points. If you look at the higher time frame, today’s price moves might be between 38.2 to 50% Fibonacci retracement levels and what might have formed could be a lower high. Again we are not quite sure if the technical analysis will work tomorrow as the markets will be keenly watching for the electoral bonds data. We would like to re-enter the bearish position below 22051 and the bullish position above 22295. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
Nifty Analysis for tomorrow Expiry | 14 March 24As we have discussed, NIFTY has been in the uptrending channel. It has been broken to the downside with huge volume power. If we look at the chart now: The market has broken the channel to the downside and is continuing its momentum to the downside. Whereas 21900 is a good support zone that might provide support. If it's broken, the next support point will be 21500. as marked in the chart. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.50 shows huge bearishness in the market. 22000 is a max pain point for now. On lower levels, there are not many support levels. On higher levels, there is huge CE writing at 22000, 22100, 22200 ... etc. I am expecting the market to fall more to 21500 levels this week. Reasons: RSI < 40 shows weakness in bulls. price < EMAs shows bearish strengthen market. PCR = 0.50 shows a bearish market. price < VWAP indicates bearish sentiment in the market. Verdict: Bearish Plan of Action: Sell 21900 CE (Hedge it with 15 premium CE).
NSE:NIFTYShort
by finnova_
7
11 Mar ’24 — Nifty above Support, BankNifty just broke oneNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “If US markets advance and take out their ATHs by then, we can expect a huge gap up in the next session. In case the Global macros weaken over the weekend — the Bull’s party could be cut short too.” 4mts chart Nifty fell 219pts ~ 0.97% intraday and yet it has not broken the support level of 22295. If we had a close below this SR level, we would have changed the stance back to neutral, as it stands the bullish stance continues. The fall was pretty one-sided and had all the characteristics of a profit-booking. The biggest issue we have is that CE short sellers are “weak” handed and they run for cover pretty soon. And every time that happens, the markets go to a higher level just due to momentum. The best time for bears to push down the prices is now, conditions are favorable and we are heading into elections. But they need to be a bit more strong. On the higher time frame, Nifty has made another higher high and higher low showing the strength of the bullish run. If Nifty50 has to change its character, the price has to fall below 22295 and then below 22051 wherein the higher low will get violated. If 22295 becomes a resistance from there on, then we might even see a triple top formation which should give the Bears an edge. Having said that, the dip buyers are too strong that traders like us feel pissed off. We are witnessing a market that is failing to fall. We all know what would happen if all the participants had a bullish view. Is it not far better if we have a healthy correction and then a new ATH? 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
1
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 07 MAR 24As we discussed, NIFTY's sideways behavior touched the fib 0.38 level and came back to trading again at the resistance. If we look at the chart now: The market is trading at the resistance right now. This might force it to consolidate for tomorrow as its expiry for nifty on 7th Mar. market might expire in the marked region. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 1.0 indicates market bullish sentiments. 22500 has huge CE writing, which will provide huge resistance. On the lower side, each level 22400, 22300, and 22200 also has multiple support points. I am expecting a sideways market tomorrow because of trading at resistance and expiry day. Reasons: Price > EMA indicates the bullish nature of the market. but price >> ema(200) shows market need some reversion. RSI > 60 indicates bulls are having strength right now. PCR = 1.34 shows bullishness; also, OI data shows multiple-level support in the option chain. Nifty is trading at a resistance trendline and might get resistance. But as it has been touched multiple times, there is also a probability that it might get broken this time. Verdict: Sideways or Bullish Plan of action: Case 1: Sideways -> IRON CONDOR in range 22450 - 22550. Case 2: Bullish -> Sell 22450 PE (Hedge it with 20rs PE)
NSE:NIFTY
by finnova_
5
04 Mar ’24 N50, Perfect Flat day, straddlers fallen asleep todayNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “The odd man out today was NiftyIT, which did not want to participate in the rally and instead went the other way. It ended the day with a loss of 204 points.” 4mts chart NiftyIT again shows its rebel attitude today, on a flattish day - NiftyIT losses 291 points ~ 0.77%. I am not suggesting that a stronger IT would have helped Nifty50 scale new heights today, just that the negative bias did not fit well with the other counters. Nifty and BankNifty had a perfectly flattish day today - a dream come true for the straddlers. Not conceding ground is still Bullish as the Bears are running out of fuel. Despite FIIs selling today - it really did not make a difference on the main indices. On the higher timeframe, we have formed an island (Mar 2nd + today’s price action). On 2nd March we had the special session on which Nifty hit a new ATH of 22463. We did not take that out today, but the flattish stance bodes well with the Bullish narrative. Our stance continues to be bullish and the first support level would be 22295. It is a shallow support and not quite relevant for a stance change, but the momentum is what really matters. Since we do not have a resistance, the markets could go up to any extent and personally, I am not in favor of shorting even 22700 or 22800 as a single stride could wipe us out. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow 5th MarAs we discussed yesterday, NIFTY has been taking resistance at the resistance trendline and resulted sideways. If we look at the chart now: The market is trading at the Resistance trendline. The market has been in a range bound in (22350-22470). Also price >> EMA(200) (TF = 30 min) and EMA(13) >> EMA(200). This indicates that the market needs some correction or consolidation at this point. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 1.26 indicates the bullish nature of the market. There has been huge activity at 22400. NIFTY has equally distributed PE and CE writing on both sides. But at lower levels, the market has huge support at 22200 and 22000. I am expecting 2 cases in the market, which have been marked in the chart. Case 1: Support is at 22370, and resistance is at trendline. Case 2: retracement till fib 0.38 level. (22220) Reasons: Price > EMAs show bullish sentiments. (Bullish) Price >> EMA(200) and EMA(13) >> EMA(200) market might get some correction till 22200. RSI ~ 63 (falling) shows weakness in bulls. PCR = 1.25 shows bullish signal whereas combined week expiry shows PCR = 0.90 weekness in bulls for upcoming week. (sideways) Price <= VWAP shows that the market price is balanced and can go either side. (Indecisive) Verdict: Sideways or Bullish Plan of action: Case 1: Iron condor in range 22300-22450. Case 2 : Sell 22450 CE (Hedge is with 20 rs CE)
NSE:NIFTY
by finnova_
27 Feb ’24 — Nifty fights it out and resolves on the upsideNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Ideally, we should expect the leg2 to start soon, but the premiums are not indicative. Also, we have the monthly expiry this week and things could get a bit volatile before we find a clear trend.” 4mts chart Nifty50 would have given enough choppiness for those bullish today to test your courage. But N50 ended up defending yesterday’s low and resolved on the upside. We started the day gap-down, but we did not have enough momentum to break the swing low. And by the 3rd candle, we went into the green territory. From there we had one more attempt to go underwater i.e. from 11.39 to 12.11 - but this attempt was quickly bought into. Interestingly, N50 took this as the reversal point and then started climbing steadily. On the 4 minutes chart, it formed a nice 2-legged upmove. On the higher time frame, the ATH is the only thing that stands in the way of the Bulls. Whereas, Bears have 2 to 3 tasks to do to get the scale tipped in their favor. They need to take out the 22051 and 21913 support levels, which is only possible if we have a macro level bad news. Banks are the only sector that could give away such an opportunity. Already the FIIs are not so happy with the future prospects of the financial sector in India. A small trigger could set the ball rolling and before long it could become an avalanche. What we can do is wait for more clarity to appear and then play along. As of now, we wish to play bullish on Nifty and neutral on BankNifty. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram